"The Climate Change negotiations –

Key Issues and Relevance ( towards Doha)"

Clifford Mahlung, Climate Branch Head & Lead

Negotiator

Outline

• Introduction– Climate Change

• Background• Current Negotiations• Conclusions

Climate Change -Definition • IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007

– Available international scientific evidence that points to the existence of the phenomenon of climate change, which is caused primarily by specific anthropogenic activities.

• Climate change manifests itself in an increase in the temperature of the earth’s surface and of the oceans, shifts in precipitation patterns, changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, and a rise in sea levels.

• The consequences of climate change – in terms of economic activities, people and ecosystems – are significant and will most likely increase unless there is a change in the current baseline or inertial trajectory.

Climate Change Response • Any solution to climate change, as a global problem, must be based on

the participation of all countries, with a recognition of historical, but differentiated, responsibilities.

• In the coming decades, Latin America and the Caribbean will face two simultaneous challenges: adapting to the new climate conditions and working to mitigate their effects through a global agreement that is just and inclusive.

• The Latin American and the Caribbean region is not immune to this

challenge that is one of the most difficult confronting modern economies and must transition to a sustainable development strategy that pursues a low-carbon path and promotes social inclusion

International Response

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)– Opened for signatures at the Conference on the

Environment in 1992, entered into force in 1994

• Kyoto Protocol, (KP)– Adopted in December 1997, entered into force in

2005

UNFCCC/KP Bodies• Subsidiary Body for Scientific & Technological

Advice, (SBSTA) • Subsidiary Body for Implementation, (SBI)• Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP)• Conference of Parties serving as the meeting

of Parties to the KP (CMP)• Secretariat of the UNFCCC• Ad Hoc Working Groups

Ad Hoc Working Groups

• Further Commitments under the Kyoto Protocol (AWGKP)

• Long term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWGLCA)

• Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP)

Negotiating GroupsParties included in Annex One of the Convention (AIP)

• Western Europe and Others – Norway– Switzerland– United States of America– Japan– Australia– N ew Zealand– Canada

• European Union• Environmental Integrity Group• Umbrella Group

Parties not included in Annex One of the Convention (NAIP)

• Group of 77 & China• African Group• Alliance of Small Island

States (Pacific, Atlantic, Indian)

• Least Developed Countries• BASIC• Arab Group (OPEC)• Others (ALBA, SICA, etc)

Bali Roadmap• BALI ROADMAP: COP 13 and COP/MOP 3 took place in December

2007 in Bali, Indonesia. Negotiations resulted in the adoption of the Bali Action Plan. Parties established the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA) with a mandate to focus on key elements of long-term cooperation identified during the Convention Dialogue: mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology and a shared vision for long-term cooperative action.

• The Bali conference also resulted in agreement on the Bali Roadmap, based on two negotiating tracks under the Convention and the Protocol, and set a deadline for concluding the negotiations at COP 15 and COP/MOP 5 in Copenhagen in December 2009

“Copenhagen Accords”

• The UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, took place from 7-19 December 2009, and included COP 15 and COP/MOP 5, the 31st sessions of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) and the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technology Advice (SBSTA), as well as AWG-KP 10 and AWG-LCA 8.

• Over 110 world leaders attended the joint COP and COP/MOP high-level segment from 16-18 December.

• The conference was marked by disputes over transparency and process. During the high-level segment, informal negotiations took place in a group consisting of major economies and representatives of regional and other negotiating groups.

• Late in the evening of 18 December, these talks resulted in a political agreement: the “Copenhagen Accord,” which was then presented to the COP plenary for adoption.

“Copenhagen Accords”(2)

• Over the next 13 hours, delegates debated the Accord. Many supported adopting it as a step towards securing a “better” future agreement. However, some developing countries opposed the Accord, which they felt had been reached through an “non-transparent” and “undemocratic” negotiating process.

• Ultimately, the COP could only agreed to “take note” of the Copenhagen Accord.

• It established a process for parties to indicate their support for the Accord and, during 2010, over 140 countries did so. More than 80 countries also provided information on their national emission reduction targets and other mitigation actions.

• On the last day of the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, the COP and COP/MOP also agreed to extend the mandates of the AWG-LCA and AWG-KP, requesting them to present their respective outcomes to COP 16 and COP/MOP 6.

“Cancun Agreements”(1)

• Following four preparatory meetings in 2010, the UN Climate Change Conference in Cancun, Mexico, took place from 29 November to 11 December 2010. By the end of the conference, parties finalized the Cancun Agreements, which include decisions under both negotiating tracks.

• Under the Convention track, Decision 1/CP.16 recognized the need for deep cuts in global emissions to achieve the 2°C target. Parties also agreed to consider strengthening the global long-term goal during a review by 2015, including in relation to the 1.5°C target.

• They took note of emission reduction targets and nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) communicated by both developed and developing countries respectively and agreed to discuss them during workshops in 2011.

• Decision 1/CP.16 also addressed other aspects of mitigation, such as measuring, reporting and verification (MRV); and reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+).

“Cancun Agreements”(2)• Parties also agreed to establish several new institutions and processes.

These included the Cancun Adaptation Framework and the Adaptation Committee, as well as the Technology Mechanism, which includes the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN).

• On finance, Decision 1/CP.16 created the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which was designated as the new operating entity of the Convention’s financial mechanism and is to be governed by a board of 24 members.

• Parties agreed to set up a Transitional Committee tasked with the Fund’s detailed design, and established a Standing Committee to assist the COP with respect to the financial mechanism.

• They also recognized the commitment by developed countries to provide US$30 billion of fast-start finance in 2010-2012, and to jointly mobilize US$100 billion per year by 2020.

“Cancun Agreements”(3)

• Under the Protocol track, Decision 1/CMP.6 included agreement to complete the work of the AWG-KP and have the results adopted by the COP/MOP as soon as possible, and in time to ensure there will be no gap between the first and second commitment periods.

• The COP/MOP urged Annex I parties to raise the level of ambition of their emission reduction targets with a view to achieving aggregate emission reductions consistent with the range identified in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

• Parties adopted Decision 2/CMP.6 on land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).

The mandates of the two AWGs were also extended until the next UN Climate Change Conference, in Durban, South Africa, to be held from 28 November to 9 December 2011.

Decisions adopted by the Conference of the PartiesFCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1

Decisions • 1/CP.17:

– Establishment of an Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action

• 2/CP.17:– Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term

Cooperative Action under the Convention• 3/CP.17:

– Launching the Green Climate Fund• 4/CP.17:

– Technology Executive Committee – modalities and procedures• 5/CP.17:

– National adaptation plans

FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.26/CP.17

– Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

7/CP.17– Work programme on loss and damage

8/CP.17– Forum and work programme on the impact of the implementation of response measures

9/CP.17 – Least Developed Countries Fund: support for the implementation of elements of the least developed countries

work programme other than national adaptation programmes of action

10/CP.17 – Amendment to Annex I to the Convention

11/CP.17 – Report of the Global Environment Facility to the Conference of the Parties and additional guidance to the Global

Environment Facility

12/CP.17 – Guidance on systems for providing information on how safeguards are addressed and respected and modalities

relating to forest reference emission levels and forest reference levels as referred to in decision 1/CP.16

FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.213/CP.17

– Capacity-building under the Convention14/CP.17

– Work of the Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention

15/CP.17 – Revision of the UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories for Parties included in Annex I to the

Convention16/CP.17

– Research dialogue on developments in research activities relevant to the needs of the Convention17/CP.17

– Administrative, financial and institutional matters18/CP.17

– Programme budget for the biennium 2012–201319/CP.17

– Dates and venues of future sessionsResolution

– 1/CP.17 Expression of gratitude to the Government of the Republic of South Africa, the province of KwaZulu-Natal and the people of the city of Durban

Decisions adopted by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol

FCCC/KP/CMP/2011/10/Add.1

1/CMP.7 – Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments

for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol at its sixteenth session2/CMP.7

– Land use, land-use change and forestry3/CMP.7

– Emissions trading and the project-based mechanisms4/CMP.7

– Greenhouse gases, sectors and source categories, common metrics to calculate the carbon dioxide equivalence of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks, and other methodological issues

5/CMP.7 – Consideration of information on potential environmental, economic and social

consequences, including spillover effects, of tools, policies, measures and methodologies available to Annex I Parties

FCCC/KP/CMP/2011/10/Add.2

• 6/CMP.7 – Report of the Adaptation Fund Board

• 7/CMP.7 – Review of the Adaptation Fund

• 8/CMP.7 – Further guidance relating to the clean development mechanism

• 9/CMP.7 – Materiality standard under the clean development mechanism

• 10/CMP.7 – Modalities and procedures for carbon dioxide capture and storage in geological

formations as clean development mechanism project activities• 11/CMP.7

– Guidance on the implementation of Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol

FCCC/KP/CMP/2011/10/Add.212/CMP.7

– Compliance Committee13/CMP.7

– Proposal from Kazakhstan to amend Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol14/CMP.7

– Appeal by Croatia against a final decision of the enforcement branch of the Compliance Committee in relation to the implementation of decision 7/CP.12

15/CMP.7 – Capacity-building under the Kyoto Protocol

16/CMP.7 – Administrative, financial and institutional matters

17/CMP.7 – Programme budget for the biennium 2012–2013

CONCLUSIONS

• Informal session of AWG-KP and AWG-ADP (Bangkok, September 2012)

• Pre-Ministerals (Seoul)• AWG-KP and AWG-LCA– Will complete their work.– What goes to Subsidiary Bodies and AWG-ADP?– What is discarded?– Mitigation Ambition Levels– Predictable Long-term Financing– Adequate Funding and Framework for Adaptation

Science of Climate Change - IPCC• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading

international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. The UN General Assembly endorsed the action by WMO and UNEP in jointly establishing the IPCC.

The IPCC is a scientific body. It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters.

• Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current information. IPCC aims to reflect a range of views and expertise. The Secretariat coordinates all the IPCC work and liaises with Governments. It is supported by WMO and UNEP and hosted at WMO headquarters in Geneva.

The IPCC is an intergovernmental body. It is open to all member countries of the United Nations (UN) and WMO. Currently 195 countries are members of the IPCC. Governments participate in the review process and the plenary Sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC work programme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC Bureau Members, including the Chair, are also elected during the plenary Sessions.

• Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.

WORKING GROUPS/TASK FORCES• The IPCC Working Group I (WG I)

– Assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. – The main topics assessed by WG I include:

• changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere; • observed changes in air, land and ocean temperatures, rainfall, glaciers and ice sheets, oceans and sea level;

historical and paleoclimatic perspective on climate change;• biogeochemistry, carbon cycle, gases and aerosols; • satellite data and other data; climate models; • climate projections, causes and attribution of climate change.

• The IPCC Working Group II (WG II) – Assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and

positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it. – It also takes into consideration the inter-relationship between vulnerability, adaptation and

sustainable development. – The assessed information is considered by sectors (water resources; ecosystems; food & forests;

coastal systems; industry; human health) and regions (Africa; Asia; Australia & New Zealand; Europe; Latin America; North America; Polar Regions; Small Islands).

WORKING GROUPS/TASK FORCESThe IPCC Working Group III (WG III)

Assesses options for mitigating climate change through limiting or preventing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing activities that remove them from the atmosphere.

The main economic sectors are taken into account, both in a near-term and in a long-term perspective.

The sectors include energy, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forestry, waste management.

The WG analyses the costs and benefits of the different approaches to mitigation, considering also the available instruments and policy measures.

The approach is more and more solution-oriented.

WORKING GROUPS/TASK FORCESThe Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impacts and Climate Analysis (TGICA)

Facilitate co-operation between the climate modeling and climate impacts assessment communities.

It aims at facilitating wide availability of climate change related data and scenarios for climate analysis and impacts, adaptation, vulnerability, and mitigation research.

The TGICA does not develop itself any emission, climate, or other types of scenarios, not does it make any decision regarding the choice of scenarios in the preparation of the IPCC reports. It does not undertake any modeling or research.

One of its main activities is the coordination and oversight of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC), which provides timely information and data to the international climate research community, in particular consistent data sets and guidance material

The Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI)

Established by the IPCC to oversee the IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme (IPCC-NGGIP).

The core activity is to develop and refine an internationally-agreed methodology and software for the calculation and reporting of national GHG emissions and removals and to encourage its use by countries participating in the IPCC and by parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The NGGIP also established and maintains an Emission Factor Database