The Dow Is Ready To Test My Semiannual Pivot At 10,558 Again

8/9/2019 The Dow Is Ready To Test My Semiannual Pivot At 10,558 Again

1/6

Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found HERE.

July 30, 2010 The Dow Is Ready To Test My Semiannual Pivot At 10,558 Again

The yield on the 10-Year note is between my annual pivot at 2.999 and my annual risky level at2.813. Gold begins August between my quarterly value level at $1140.9 and my semiannual pivotat $1218.7. Crude oil ended July above my annual pivot at $77.05 with a new monthly pivot at$80.02. For the euro theres a weekly pivot at 1.2823 and a weekly risky level at 1.3349. The Dowhas declining MOJO on its monthly chart, rising MOJO on its weekly chart and overboughtMOJO on its daily chart with annual, monthly and semiannual pivots at 10,379, 10,439 and10,558. The Fed has paper profits in Bear Stearns and AIG securities I say book the profits!The IMF says that twelve regional banks need to raise capital. Barrons projects a decline inhome ownership. I will be covering the banking system among other subjects at mypresentation in NYC on Monday, August 9th at Bloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM.

10-Year Note (2.909) This yield ended July between my annual pivot at 2.999 and my annual riskylevel at 2.813. We begin August with a weekly pivot at 2.882. Semiannual and monthly value levels are

3.479 and 3.601 with quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


2/6


3/6

The Euro (1.3034) Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2167, 1.1486 and 1.1424 with a dailypivot at 1.3046 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3349 and 1.4733.


Daily Dow: (10,466) My annual pivot is 10,379 with monthly, weekly and semiannual pivots at 10,439,10545 and 10,558, and daily risky level at 10,621. My quarterly value level is 7,812. My annual riskylevel at 11,235 was tested at the April 26thhigh of 11,258.01 The 200-day simple moving average is10,409. My quarterly value level is 7,812 with my annual risky level at 11,235, which was tested at the

April 26th high at 11,258. This test marked the end of the bear market rally that began in March 2009.We are in the second leg of the multi-year bear market that began in October 2007 targeting 8,500before 11,500.



4/6

Weekly Dow:The April 26th high of 11,258 was a test of the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of thedecline from October 2007 high to the March 2009 low. Note also the failed test of the 200-week simplemoving average now at 11,066 and the failed test of my annual risky level at 11,235. MOJO is risingand weekly closes above the 5-week modified moving average at 10,280 keeps the weekly chart profilepositive.


Monthly Dow: shows declining MOJO (not shown on this chart), but Julys close was above the five-month modified moving average at 10,198 shifts the monthly chart to neutral. Julys close was also justabove the 120-month simple moving average at 10,453.



5/6

The Federal Reserve now has a paper profit on the toxic assets it's holding from Bear Stearnsand AIG. The assets are presently worth $69.1B, around $2B more than last quarter, with theunrealized gains on the Maiden Lane portfolios standing at $10.8B. I say the Fed should sell these

assets to help establish a market that till now has been non-existent.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted their own bank stress tests and they conclude thatthe US financial system remains vulnerable to crisis, partly because Congress failed to streamline theregulatory system or take bolder action. The IMF indicates that among the 53 largest banks in the USthere are regional banks that need to raise more capital.

Barrons Projects Reduced Home Ownership over the Next Five Years Instead of buying a home,Americans will opt to rent instead with home ownership declining to 64% in 2015. This will keephousing starts, new and existing home sales at best down 30% from where they were whilehomebuyers qualified to the $8,000 or $6,500 tax credits, which expired April 30th. Home ownershippeaked at 69% in 2004 and will likely fall to the threshold of 1993 / 1994. Note that Barrons showsthat the Great Recession ended in 2009, but so far such has not been stated by the NationalBureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Richard Suttmeier Presentation Monday, August 9, 2010: I will be the speaker at the MarketTechnicians Association Meeting to be held at Bloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM on Monday,August 9, 2010.

Home Prices are Set to Fall to the Levels of 1999 / 2000 Community Banks remain Vulnerable for Failure US Stocks have begun the Second Leg of a Multi-Year Bear Market "Buy and Trade' Replaces "Buy and Hold"


6/6

To attend please reply to [email protected] and include: first and last name, company name,address, email and phone number so that you can be pre-registered into the Bloomberg securitysystems for this event.

Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

Documents

The Dow Is Ready To Test My Semiannual Pivot At 10,558 Again