The Endowed Observation

Session 114

Ocean Sciences Meeting

Orlando, Florida

2008

D. James Baker

Ray Schmitt

The Challenge: maintaining long duration time series observations

for climate.• Understanding the climate system requires

long time series observations with high quality measurements.

• Experience shows that we don’t know how to fund such activity.

• We here present some suggestions for a better way

Ocean Temperature Profiles

World River Flow Data Reports

How can we sustain the long time-series required to address climate?• Governments have changing interests, for

instance, the Navy deployed many thousands of XBTs during the cold war, but has shifted focus since then.

• Are our government science agencies sufficiently insulated from politics?

• The long time scale is poor match to the career interests of research scientists.

• Science agencies have other priorities that better serve those careers.

Long time series for climate

• By definition, at least 30 years of data

• Meteorological times series at a number of sites (cities) often exceed 100 yrs

• Time series are started by individuals (ex. Sydney Aus. Met. obs; CO2 at Hawaii)

• US science funding mechanisms are poorly suited for long-duration time series

• What can we learn from philanthropic funding of medical research and educational fundraising?

W. S. Jevons and the Sydney Temperature Time Series

W.S. Jevons arrived in Sydney, Australia in 1854 to serve as assayer at the Royal Mint during the Australian gold rush.

He was only 19, but had a great interest in meteorology, and performed the first salt finger experiments in an attempt to model cirrus clouds.

He later became one of the first quantitative economists. To quote J.M. Keynes.. “I have discovered someone whom I had not realized to be very good– namely Jevons. I am convinced that he was one of the minds of the century”

Jevons (1857, 1858) published the first experiments on salt fingers (though he failed to understand them..)

Role of the individual….

Jevons believed in a “world ruled by number” and was surprised to learn there was no meteorological data being recorded for Sydney. He started twice daily observations of temperature and reported them in the newspaper. After two years he convinced the government to take them on. Thus, the Sydney temperature record dates back to 1857.

But this is an easy case, the value of meteorological measurements for agriculture, commerce, and travel is obvious to most.

Keeling and the Hawaii CO2 Time Series

• A harder case to make

• Tough to introduce a new variable

• Tough to maintain with “Science” funding

• Eventual takeover by government

• Is this an adequate solution?

CO2 Time series• Begun by Keeling as part of IGY in 1958

with support from the Weather Bureau• Seasonal cycle emerged in first year,

confirmed by second years data• WB funding cut in 1963, as long term rise

in CO2 was just emerging. • NSF funding was secured till 1973, when

concerns arose that it was too “routine”

• Constant battle for funding with NSF through the 70’s

• NSF would not support “routine monitoring”

• NOAA and DOE provide 80% of NSF funding in 1979 if he agreed not to apply again. (Or “calibrated reviewers” would be found if he were unwise enough to re-apply)

• DOE funding promised for 2 years (1982) but Reagan DOE shake-up disturbed this arrangement.

• NSF again for 1983 (new program manager but still no “routine monitoring”)

• NOAA trying to take over Mauna Loa record but methods did not agree.

• NOAA and DOE for 1984

• 1985 – DOE/Oak Ridge but the proposal had to promise “two discoveries per year”

• DOE funding cut after two years, but restored by Admiral Watkins. Continued to 1994. NOAA since then.

• DOE decided that “Research on the global carbon cycle will be redirected towards focused efforts related to terrestrial carbon processes” Fortunately, Keeling was able to argue for such relevance.

• Why continue with the struggle?

• Data gathered became more and more fascinating as the records lengthened. They did not appear to be subject to the law of diminishing returns.

Long lived institutions

• Churches ( ~ 2000 yrs)• Universities ( ~ 1000 yrs)• Governments ( ~ 300 yrs)• Endowments have allowed the first two to last

~103 years. Are governments likely to retain the necessary long-term commitment? Not so clear… though we may wish it to be so

• Can an endowed institution be created solely for the purpose of maintaining long duration observations for Climate?

Endowments and medical research

• Human health has been a popular focus of philanthropic giving for decades, for both large and small donors

• ~$2-3 B is annual private expenditure on biomedical research in US

• Gates foundation alone has endowment of ~$35B (+~$30B from Warren Buffet)

Biomedical research:

• Will help more people live longer and thus:

• Consume more food

• Consume more water

• Consume more energy

• Produce more CO2

• Thus exacerbating the climate problem!

Feasibility of raising $1B ….universities

No one would argue against an investment in education. However, it leads to higher living standards and higher consumption of energy, water, food and raw materials, thus further stressing the climate system!

Other examples

• 8 Boston Universities have combined endowment of $50B

• World Wildlife Fund raises ~ $100M/year

• Howard Hughes Medical Institute has an endowment of over $18B

Other challenges

• NSF has difficulty funding Time Series Bermuda, Hawaii, Line W

• NSF and OOI? (… it was left out of the presidents budget for 2009…)

• Hard to argue it is “transformative science”

• Poor match to career interests of research scientists

Summary:• Society has begun to realize that understanding the

climate system is critical for survival of the species.• Long time series of high quality data are absolutely

essential for climate studies.• Individuals start time series but governments are an

unreliable support mechanism.• An endowed institution would be a wiser approach for

centennial scale time series maintenance.• Biomedical and educational endowments in the US raise

many billions per year. • These investments guarantee that a longer-lived and more

educated human population will stress the climate system even more than we have seen to date.

• We must diversify the philanthropic investment portfolio. A “World Climate Data Fund” or “National Endowment for Climate Data” is needed to sustain the essential observing systems for climate. Where do we find those with such a long term vision? How do we make the case?

"How inappropriate

to call this planet Earth when clearly it is Ocean”

- - Arthur C. Clarke Nature, 1990

The Oceans have low albedo and absorb most of the solar radiation incident on the planet. They have 1100 times the heat capacity of the atmosphere. Finding the resources to sustain the necessary measurements for climate is paramount.