The FAIRMODE PM modelling guide

Laurence ROUIL (laurence.rouil@ineris.fr)Bertrand BESSAGNET (bertrand.bessagnet@ineris.fr)

FAIRMODE: 6th plenary meeting – 10-12 April 2013

Objectives An initiative within the FAIRMODE WG1 activity Third guide document to support use of modelling

approaches for the implementation of the air quality directives The application of models under the European Union's

Air Quality Directive: A technical reference guide. (EEA report 10/2011)

Guide on modelling Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) for air quality assessment and planning relevant to the European Air Quality Directive. (ETC/ACM Technical Paper 2011/15)

A new guide devoted to PM modelling. Challenges: Avoiding repetition of the other guides Reviewing all users’ concerns, PM being a very

sensitive and difficult issue

Challenges with PM modelling Exceedances of the PM10 limit values are still reported by

a large number of Member States : notification processes with the European Commission on-going. Some MS are likely to be fined.

Member States must demonstrate how exceedances can be managed and avoided: evaluation of national and local action plans is needed scenario analysis

They must demonstrate that areas and number of inhabitants exposed to PM exceedances is under control with the objective of no exposure mapping

They must assess their own responsibility in terms of emissions in the occurrence of complex phenomena involving LRT, natural sources, complex chemistry ... understanding

General public pressure because of the well-known harmful impacts of PM on the human health

It seems that everywhere PM concentrations do not decrease as expected in some areas

Source: EEA

Objective of the guidance : promoting PM modelling Over the ten past years, significant development of modelling

and measurement research activity for dealing with PM challenges

Models become more and more mature and follow the development of observation networks :

evaluation/validation Data assimilation Improved understanding with the availability of PM compounds

measurements They are more and more widely used for decision

making.... ... Providing that uncertainties are under control

Sources and emissions Lack of knowledge about the chemical and dynamical processes

(secondary organic aerosols formation, deposition..) Sensitivity to boundary conditions

PM guide : table of content (i) The document is conceived to answer or highlight questions the user

dealing with policy applications should consider -> neither a scientific paper nor a list of tools, but an “operational” document

Not a review of current models : already covered in the previous guides Along the document, concrete recommendations are proposed : “application

guidance” A large number of references where more information/data can be found

1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 General overview on modeling issues 1.2 Applications of PM modelling for the European Air Quality Directive

2 MAIN ISSUES RELATED TO PM MODELLING 2.1 What should be modeled from aerosol typology and composition 2.2 Uncertainties in PM modelling 2.3 Linking models of different scales 2.4 Sensitivity to boundary and initial conditions (Regional models)

PM guide : table of content (ii)

3 EMISSION DATA 3.1 Sources of emission data: Bottom-up & Top-down inventories :

National contributions expected and input from FAIRMODE WG2 3.2 Pre-treatment of emissions :Temporal disaggregation, Spatial re-gridding 3.3 Residential sector emissions (static and dynamic) 3.4 Traffic emissions (direct and indirect) 3.5 Wind blown dust emissions 3.6 Natural marine emissions 3.7 Ammonia emissions 3.8 Biogenic NO and VOC emissions 3.9 Fire emissions 3.10 Primary Organic Aerosol (POA) emissions

4 METEOROLOGICAL DATA 4.1 Meteorology in CTMs 4.2 Meteorological drivers – downscaling 4.3 Urban meteorology 4.4 Expected impact of meteorological drivers on PM modelling

PM guide : table of content (iii) 5 QUALITY CONTROL AND EVALUATION

Remains to be written accounting for the FAIRMODE WG2 work (SG4 : benchamrking and model quality objectives)

6 PM MODELLING APPLICATIONS FOR THE AQ DIRECTIVE (AQD) 6.1 Modelling requirements for assessment and reporting exceedances

The AQ Directive requirements : what is requested Use of models for assessment: how do models answer to them? Explaining exceedances due to natural events: sources of data (incl. COPERNICUS/MACC) and

methodologies Reporting exceedance of PM limit values by winter sanding or salting of roads: to be completed...national

contributions ? Explaining exceedances due to transboudary pollution: to be completed especially with

COPERNICUS/MACC inputs 6.2 Modelling requirements for source apportionment

Issues + national contribution. Still needs to be completed with results from WG2/SG2 6.3 Modelling requirements for planning and emission scenarios

How to run and assess model scenario runs : national contributions welcome ! 6.4 Modelling requirements for information and forecasting

Issues for policy support and available tools and data (especially within the COPERNICUS/MACC services)

Next steps Your feedback is highly expected !

Do you need (further) guidance and if yes on which topics? How could we best take this up in a guide document? Which elements of the draft PM Report do you appreciate and why (e.g.

general info on the status of PM modelling or ‘application guidance’ as given in the draft document)?

Your contribution is still welcome If you wish to illustrate some topics If you wish to propose national methodologies, tools and references If you do not agree with some points proposed in the document

Publication foreseen in 2013