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Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 1
The FY 2020 Federal R&D Budget
Matt HourihanApril 9, 2019For the 2019 Engineering Public Policy SymposiumAAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/rd
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 2
$400
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Limits on Nondefense SpendingBillions of constant 2019 dollars
Actual Caps w/ Congress Adjustments Pre-Sequester Caps Sequester Caps
*Current caps last through 2021. Based on past and current budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act and subsequent legislation, and the FY20 request.© AAAS 2019
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 3
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
Limits on Nondefense SpendingBillions of constant 2019 dollars
Actual Caps w/ Congress Adjustments Pre-Sequester Caps Sequester Caps
*Current caps last through 2021. Based on past and current budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act and subsequent legislation, and the FY20 request.© AAAS 2019
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 4
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Limits on Nondefense SpendingBillions of constant 2019 dollars
Actual Caps w/ Congress Adjustments Pre-Sequester Caps
Sequester Caps Future Caps (Current Law)*
*Current caps last through 2021. Based on past and current budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act and subsequent legislation, and the FY20 request.© AAAS 2019
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Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 5
$400
$450
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Limits on Nondefense SpendingBillions of constant 2019 dollars
Actual Caps w/ Congress Adjustments Pre-Sequester CapsSequester Caps Future Caps (Current Law)*President's FY 2020 Budget
*Current caps last through 2021. Based on past and current budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act and subsequent legislation, and the FY20 request.© AAAS 2019
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Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 6
Estimated R&D in the FY 2020 White House Budget(budget authority in millions of dollars)
FY 2018Actual
FY 2019Estimate*
FY 2020Budget
FY19 ChangeAmount Percent
Total R&D 145,130 150,346 142,158 -8,188 -5.4%Defense R&D 68,897 70,803 75,369 +4,566 +6.4%Nondefense R&D 76,233 79,544 66,789 -12,755 -16.0%
By CharacterBasic Research 36,587 39,482 35,073 -4,409 -11.2%Applied Research 43,517 45,806 37,969 -7,837 -17.1%Development 61,158 60,880 65,733 +4,853 +8.0%Facilities & Equipment 3,868 4,178 3,383 -795 -19.0%*Based on mix of OMB and agency R&D data and AAAS estimates of FY 2019 appropriations for some agencies.
Note: The projected GDP inflation rate between FY 2019 and FY 2020 is 2.0 percent.
All figures are rounded to the nearest million. Changes calculated from unrounded figures. 3/27/19 | AAAS
Select priorities:
Artificial Intelligence: $1.7 billion+ Quantum Science: $430 million Lunar Exploration: $1.2 billion Exascale Computing: $809 million (DOE) Cybersecurity: $17.4 billion (incl. non-R&D)
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 7
-70%
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Science & Tech Agencies in the Trump Administration's BudgetsProposed year-over-year changes, nominal dollars
FY18 Request FY19 Request FY20 Request
*Includes renewables, efficiency, nuclear, fossil, grid research, cybersecurity, ARPA-E. | AAAS
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 8
Research Funding: The Basics
DOD Science & Tech: -9.7%, -$1.5 billion Basic research: -8.2%, $208 million DARPA: +3.7%, +129 million, to $3.6 billion
DOE Office of Science: -16%, -$1.0 billion – across most programs, user facilities DOE Technology Programs: particular emphasis on cutting efficiency, renewables,
manufacturing, but others too
NSF: Overall budget: -12.5% / -$1.0 billion – all directorates down at least 8% 1,000 fewer competitive awards, 21% success rate
NIH: Overall budget: -$4.9 billion / +12.6% - Most institutes reduced by ~14% ~4,000 fewer competitive awards, sub-14% (!!) success rate
NASA: -2.2% to $21 billion total; Science Directorate: -8.7%; Lunar exploration
NIST: Lab programs -15%; manufacturing extension zeroed out (again) NOAA, EPA, USGS: Research -41%, several programs reduced / terminated
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 9
Some Priorities and New Projects DOD:
National Security Innovation Network Defense Innovation Unit DARPA’s AI Thrust
DOE: Harsh Materials Advanced Energy Storage Coal Generation Efficiency Energy Frontier Research Centers
NSF: Convergence Accelerators Midscale Infrastructure LHC Upgrades
NIH: Pediatric cancer
USDA: Competitive grants
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 10
“Un-Priorities” Energy Technology: ARPA-E zeroed, most other
programs cut
Manufacturing Innovation institute support reduced / eliminated
(DOD, DOE) DOE AMO Hubs funding terminated MEP terminated
Several university programs NIST, DHS Centers of Excellence DOD: Navy university initiatives, Army centers Sea Grant, Space Grant
Human Capital Reduced support for National Defense Education
Program Cuts / eliminates education & training programs in
NSF, NASA, NIH, DOE
Earth / Climate research: NOAA climate grants, DOE earth system modeling, select NASA missions, USGS and EPA programs, all cut / zeroed
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 11
So What’s Next?
Is Congress likely to allow this drop in discretionary spending to happen? Remember, 9% for nondefense and 11%
for defense ($125 billion total)
Pentagon + Defense hawks: sequestration is bad for national security
House / Senate Dems: we must take care of nondefense spending too
Debt ceiling action necessary in early fall
However…deficits are exploding And the border wall situation is…a
situation
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 12
0%
5%
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20%
25%
30%
DOD Scienceand Tech
VA Research DOE Science NIH CompetitiveAg Grants
DOE Tech* NASA NOAAResearch
U.S.Geological
Survey
NationalScience
Foundation
Science Agency Budget Increases Since January 2017Percent change from FY 2016 - FY 2019, nominal dollars
*Nuclear, fossil, renewables, efficiency, grid, ARPA-E.Source: agency budget documents and appropriations. Note: inflation is 3.3% over this time. | AAAS 2018
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 13
Some Research-Relevant Appropriators…
House Senate
Subcommittee Chair Ranking Chair Ranking
Labor-H(funds NIH, CDC, other HHS)
DeLauro (CT) Cole (OK) Blunt (MO) Murray (WA)
CJS(funds NSF, NASA, NIST, NOAA)
Serrano (NY) Aderholt (AL) Moran (KS) Shaheen (NH)
Energy & Water(funds Dept. of Energy)
Kaptur (OH) Simpson (ID) Alexander (TN) Feinstein (CA)
Defense Visclosky (IN) Calvert (CA) Shelby (AL) Durbin (IL)
Agriculture Bishop (GA) Fortenberry (NE) Hoeven (ND) Merkley (OR)
Interior McCollum (MN) Joyce (OH) Murkowski (AK) Udall (NM)
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 14
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 15
For more info…
[email protected]://www.aaas.org/rd
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 16
(extras to follow)
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 17
Defense Discretionary
$662 [Defense R&D]$64
Nondefense Discretionary
$630
[Nondefense R&D]$70
Social Security$1,102
Medicare$679
Medicaid$418
Other Mandatory$642
Net Interest$479
Composition of the Proposed FY 2020 BudgetTotal Outlays = $4.7 trillion
outlays in billions of dollars
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2020. Projected deficit is $1.1 trillion. © AAAS 2019
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 18
DOD, $67.7
HHS (NIH), $33.7
DOE, $14.7
NASA, $11.3
NSF, $5.7
USDA, $2.5
Commerce, $1.7All Other, $4.9
Total Requested R&D by Agency, FY 2020budget authority in billions of dollars
Source: OMB R&D data and supplements, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2019 AAAS
Total R&D = $142.2 billion
(estimated budget authority)
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 19
-30%
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Federal S&T Spending Since FY 2010Percent change from FY10 levels, constant dollars
Discretionary Caps
DOE Science
NIH
DOE TechPrograms*
NSF
NASA
DOD S&T
USDA R&D (est.)
*Includes OE, EERE, Fossil, Nuclear, Cybersecurity, ARPA-E.Based on AAAS analyses of historical OMB, agency, and appropriations data. © 2019 AAAS
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 20
1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 20130.00%
0.20%
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0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
Government R&D as a Share of GDP by Character
Basic Research / GDP Applied Research / GDP Development / GDP
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 21
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World R&D by Country / Region(millions of constant 2010 dollars adjusted for purchasing power parity)
USA
China
EU-28
OtherWorld
Japan
Source: OECD Science Indicators, August 2018 | AAAS
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 22
DOD Science & Technology
Total funding: -9.7%, -$1.5 billion
Basic research: -8.2%, $208 million Cuts across all military branches National Defense Education Program: -32.1% University Initiatives: -12.8%
DARPA: +3.7%, +129 million, to $3.6 billion Plus-ups for AI research, human-machine interaction,
materials science, photonics, pharmacology, etc
Priority DOD investments include: Hypersonic weapons ($2.6 billion) AI and machine learning ($927 million) Cyber ops ($9.6 billion) Autonomous systems ($3.7 billion) Space ($14.1 billion)
$149.8 million for new Space Development Agency
Applied research programs also cut by $708 million / 12% Plus-up for Defense Innovation Unit Scaled back support for manufacturing innovation institutes
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
BasicResearch (6.1)
AppliedResearch (6.2)
Adv Tech Dev(6.3)
TOTAL S&T*
DOD S&T in the FY 2020 Budgetpercent change from FY 2019, nominal dollars
*Total S&T combines 6.1, 6.2, and 6.3. © 2019 A AAS
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 23
Department of Energy
Office of Science: -16%, -$1.0 billion Quantum info science would receive a 61% increase 4% increase for ASCR program research BES: cuts for research, user facility operations; but EFRCs
up for a re-compete with an 18% increase above FY19 BER: broad reductions but particularly tough for
environmental side of the shop (~50% reduction) Fusion: 31.8% reduction to domestic research; ITER cut by
18.9% HEP: 18.9% cut to research incl. LHC activities Nuclear Physics: 9.4% reduction
Technology programs: ARPA-E eliminated again Steep cuts for EERE, Nuclear, Fossil programs $156 million for new Cybersecurity Office, a 30% boost New Initiatives:
$158 million for new Advanced Energy Storage Initiative $59 million for new Harsh Environment Materials Initiative
$100 million for Versatile Fast Test Reactor, a 54% increase
-35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
Nuclear Physics
High-Energy Physics
Fusion Energy
Bio and Environ Res
Basic Energy Science
Advanced Computing
FY 2020 Office of Science Budgets in the Requestpercent change from FY 2019, nominal dollars
Based on agency data . © 2019 AAAS
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Cybersecurity
ARPA-E
Efficiency / Renewables
Nuclear Energy
Fossil Energy
FY 2020 Energy Program Budgetspercent change from FY19, nominal dollars
Based on agency and legislative data. © 2019 AAAS
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 24
Department of Health and Human Services
NIH: -$4.9 billion / +12.6% Most institutes reduced by ~14% $50 million boost for pediatric cancer
Though total NCI budget cut by $897 million $6 million for Centers for AIDS Research 1.3 billion for opioids-related research (same as
FY19) 32% reduction in competing RPGs! (to about 7,900
total in FY20) Sub-14% success rate! Other Initiatives:
Cancer Moonshot down to $195 million (from $400 million)
Precision Medicine down to $149 million (from $379 million)
BRAIN Initiative down to $140 million (from $429 million)
AHRQ consolidation (again)
CDC: ~10% cut to nonmandatory programs, across most program areas
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NIH Budget, FY 1998 - 2020budget authority in billions of constant FY 2019 dollars
ARRA Funding Cancer NIAIDHeart Lung Blood General Med Sci NIDDKMental Health All Other
Source: Agency budget documents and appropriations. Adjusted f or biomedical R&D inf lation rate (BRDPI). © 2019 AAAS
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 25
National Science Foundation
Overall budget: -12.5% / -$1.0 billion New research grants to drop by 1,000 Funding rate down to 21% Every directorate down by at least 8%
Select Initiatives 10 Big Ideas - $297 million total (research ideas = $30 million
each) Convergence Accelerators – standalone, time-limited,
multidisciplinary initiatives (2 x $30 million each) I-Corps basically flat; cybersecurity, neuro research down
STEM Education Total funding down 15.3% / $1.1 billion (across K-12,
undergrad, graduate) 400 fewer graduate fellows vs FY18 Programs to broaden participation: -17%
Major Construction: Antarctic Infrastructure Modernization continues New funding for five-year LHC upgrade project $75 million for Mid-Scale Infrastructure (“Big Idea”)
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National Science Foundation BudgetBudget Authority in billions of constant FY 2019 dollars
NSF ARRA All Other EHR MREFC
Other R&RA SBE CISE BIO
ENG GEO MPSSource: NSF budget requests. © 2019 AAAS
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 26
NASA
-2.2% to $21 billion total STEM Engagement Office eliminated (again) Aeronautics -8%
Science Directorate: -8.7% Planetary Science: -4.9%
Jupiter Europa mission receives ~$600 million, versus $740 million provided in FY19 omnibus
Earth Science: -7.8% PACE and CLARREO Pathfinder eliminated, again
Astrophysics: WFIRST eliminated, again
Exploration Large increase for Gateway Plus $323 million for lunar surface exploration
and capabilities Moon in five years? Without SLS? New
directorate for moon / Mars activities?
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NASA Budgets, FY 2007 - 2020billions of constant 2019 dollars
ARRA OtherExploration Systems Spaceflight OperationsExploration Technology AeronauticsScience
Based on historical and current NASA data. Note program and account names hav e changed ov er time. © 2019 AAAS
Copyright © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science 27
Other Agencies
USDA NIFA: $500 million / +20.5% increase for AFRI and new $50 million
competitive program for modernization of land-grant research facilities But capacity programs cut back to varying degrees
ARS: 7.7% cut to non-facilities funding Continues effort to relocate ERS and NIFA
NIST: MEP eliminated, again, plus 15% reduction for lab activities Capital Fund proposed for CO facility repairs
NOAA, USGS, EPA: big-to-very-big cuts to R&D activities (again) Sea Grant eliminated
DHS: S&T Directorate cut by 29%; new WMD Office