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The Hindu Kush Himalaya
Assessment
Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability
and People
HIMAP 1st
Assessment
Process
>350 people and growing: 200 authors (31% women; 81% from the region), 125 external
reviewers, 22 Review Editors
To be published by Springer Nature, fully Open Access, end 2018
Four Writeshops: Jan, June and Sept 2016 and Aug 2017
Even 1.5
Degrees is Too
Hot
and amplified
by Elevation
Dependent
Warming
Source: HIMAP climate
change chapter and
Kraaijenbrink et al. 2017,
Nature
Even 1.5
Degrees is Too
Hot
and amplified
by Elevation
Dependent
Warming
Source: HIMAP climate
change chapter and
Kraaijenbrink et al. 2017,
Nature
HKH will warm more compared to global mean
and warm more rapidly at higher elevations
2.1 ± 0.1˚C (PI) in a 1.5 degree world
2.5 ± 1.5˚C relative to 1976-2005 (RCP 4.5)
5.5 ± 1.5˚C by 2100 at current emission levels
In a 1.5˚ C world,
glaciers in the
HKH will lose 36%
volume by 2100 A 2˚ C global
warming scenario
implies a regional
warming of around
2.7˚ C and a 49%
loss of ice volume
Snow covered areas and snow volumes
will decrease and snowline elevations will
rise;
Snow melt induced run-off peak will be
stronger and occur earlier in the year
Source: HIMAP climate
change chapter and
Kraaijenbrink et al. 2017,
Nature
End of century glacier mass loss
T2005 14%
1.5 °C 36±7%
RCP4.5 49±7%
RCP6.0 51±6%
RCP8.5 64±5%
Kraaijenbrink et al., 2017, Nature
Not running out of water, but…
Contribution to total flow by (a) glacial melt, (b) snowmelt, and (c) rainfall-runoff for major
streams during the reference period of 1998–2007. Line thickness indicates the average
discharge during the reference period. Source: Lutz et al. (2014)
Greater impact for those living closer to glaciers
Climate change is expected to drive consistent increases
in total runoff of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra
Indus: increased glacier melt, then declines after mid-
century Ganges/Brahmaputra: increased runoff due
mainly to precipitation
Changing precipitation and flow patterns – more floods
and droughts; high uncertainty
Climate change also likely to affect groundwater,
especially springs in the mid-hills of the HKH, but limited
evidence.
Disaster risk is increasing
Floods, droughts, landslides, glacial lake
outburst floods
One-third of disasters are floods, many
crossing national borders
Relative change in 50 year return period of floods
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
Average river flow will increase by EoC in upper river basins: 50% in upper Indus 30%–40% in upper Ganges 25%–50% in upper Brahmaputra Intensities of ‘once in 50 years’ flood events will increase: 40%–110% in upstream areas 115%–150% in downstream areas
Flood magnitude may double
Air Pollution
and Black
Carbon
- Air pollutants originating in and near the HKH amplify climate change
- Raises temperatures
- Accelerates glacier and snow melt
- Affects the circulation of monsoons and distribution of rainfall over Asia
- Negatively impacts health
- Reduces crop yield
Biodiversity Between 1998 and 2008, an average of 35 new
species were discovered each year in the
Eastern Himalaya alone, but
70 to 80% original habitat in the biodiversity
hotspots of the HKH already lost (relative to
1500)
60-85% of rural population in
HKH directly or indirectly depend
on biodiversity for subsistence
Poverty
33% in
mountains
compared to
25% national
average
Blanket approaches to country-
level poverty not sufficient
Acute shortage of mountain
specific poverty data
Poverty has a distinct gender
dimension
Energy
Poverty 500 GW hydro
potential
80% population
lacks access to
clean energy for
cooking
Energy development policy in the
HKH too strongly focused on supply
and growth—and not yet on
sustainability, despite the region’s
huge potential for renewables.
Food (In)Security
30% of HKH
population
suffers from
food insecurity
50% of people
face some
form of
malnutrition
Agriculture and food production highly
susceptible to climate change
Traditional food systems are replaced by rice
and wheat
Low returns from agriculture – non-agri forms of livelihood means abandonment of land
High Out-Migration
Labor migration
contributes
significantly to
poverty
reduction in
HKH region
Migration can be seen as a
way to promote resilience to
climate change, but investment
in agriculture or climate
adaptation is rarely the first
priority of migrant households
in mountainous area
Poverty (income and energy), food insecurity,
and migration affect women, children and
marginalised communities more severely than
others, but polices and responses in HKH
countries overlook these multiple forms of exclusions.
We know enough to take action, but better
data and knowledge and better communication will mean better action
HKH Futures
3 directions for environmental,
social and economic futures in HKH:
run downhill, business as usual,
advance toward prosperity
3 factors that pose the greatest
threats to prosperity in the region:
Disasters, climate change, poor
governance
2 paths to achieve prosperity in
2080:
large-scale investment with regional
cooperation, and
bottom-up investment with local and
national cooperation
Both paths critically presuppose
cooperation and coordination and
are not mutually exclusive.
Three priorities for action
Cooperate at all
levels across the
HKH region for
sustainable and
mutual benefits.
Recognize and
prioritize the
uniqueness of the
HKH mountain
people.
Concerted action
is urgently needed
to keep global
level climate
change to 1.5
degrees by 2100.
Thank You
Call for Action HKH Science-Policy Forum
13-14 Nov 2018 Kathmandu