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Speaker 7: Christian Dippon of NERA Economic Consulting
Law Seminars International | Wireless Telecommunications | 11/8/07 in Seattle, WA
of NERA Economic Consulting Page 1
Law Seminars International | Wireless Telecommunications | 11/8/07 in Seattle, WA
The Race to Quadruple Play
Christian M. Dippon
The Race to Quadruple Play
Who Will Rule the Telecommunications Kingdom?
Christian M. DipponVice President
Law Seminars International,Advanced Conference on Wireless TelecommunicationsSeattle, Washington
November 8, 2007
Defining the Kingdom
Video
Fixed Video Landline Voice
Voice
Demand forCommunications
andInformation
Fixed VideoWireless Video
IPTV
Mobile VoiceLandline Voice
1
InformationData
Mobile Broadband
Fixed Broadband
Others
VoIP
FMC
E-Wallet
Speaker 7: Christian Dippon of NERA Economic Consulting
Law Seminars International | Wireless Telecommunications | 11/8/07 in Seattle, WA
of NERA Economic Consulting Page 2
Law Seminars International | Wireless Telecommunications | 11/8/07 in Seattle, WA
Network Providers
Introducing the Parties
Content Providers
– Verizon– AT&T– Qwest– Alltel– Embarq
Fixed:
– Verizon Wireless– AT&T Mobility– Sprint Nextel– T-Mobile
Mobile:
– Comcast– Fox– Time Warner
Video:
Yahoo!Google
AOL LLCWalt DisneyTime WarnerViacom Inc.
News CorporationCBS Corporation
Playboy Enterprises
2
– Time Warner– DirecTV– Dish Net
Playboy EnterprisesMTV Networks Company
Who will Rule – Content or Network?
Fixed and cable networks compete, other networks (fixed wireless, wireless) can potentially also compete. There are numerous competing networks. Hence, network are numerous competing networks. Hence, network owners will not rule.
Content providers are offered in bundles. No single content provider rules. Bundles are provisioned competitively – most content is available on all networks. Hence, content will also not rule.
3
Consumers meet demand for telecommunications and information through triple and quadruple play. Hence portfolio competition (rather than content or networks) will shape competition and decide who, if anybody, will rule.
Speaker 7: Christian Dippon of NERA Economic Consulting
Law Seminars International | Wireless Telecommunications | 11/8/07 in Seattle, WA
of NERA Economic Consulting Page 3
Law Seminars International | Wireless Telecommunications | 11/8/07 in Seattle, WA
What Mode Will Prevail?
Mobile will prevail over
Voice
Fixed (fiber) will prevail over
Data
Fixed will prevail over
Video
prevail over fixed
– Increased coverage
– Improved quality
– Lower prices
– Removal of
prevail over mobile
– Lack of killer application
– Bandwidth capacity limitation
– Battery lives
prevail over mobile
– Lack of killer application
– Bandwidth capacity limitation
– Battery lives
4
Forecast: Mobile will dominate voice, while fixed will dominate data and video. This, however, does not remove mobile from data and video as there is strong demand for
mobile data and video.
– Removal of roaming
– Battery lives – Battery lives
Mobile Leaders: Which Player Will Prevail?
Voice
Fixed Wireless
Data
Fixed Wireless
Video
Fixed Wireless
Other Services
FixedVoIP
WirelessVoIP
Bundles
Fixed
Triple Quadruple
Verizon
AT&T
Qwest
Embarq
Net op MNO
Net op MNO
Net op MVNO
Net op MVNO
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
FiOS Video Cast Mobile TV
Uverse TV Cellular Video
DirecTV JV MVNO
Dish Net JV MVNO
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
Yes MVNO
Yes MVNO
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
MobileAT&T Mobility
Verizon Wireless
Sprint Nextel
T-Mobile
Net op MNO
Net op MNO
No MNO
No MNO
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
No HSDPA
No HSDPA
Uverse TV Cellular Video
FiOS Video Cast Mobile TV
No Sprint TV
No
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
No Yes
No Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
VideoComcast Net op No Coax / Fiber No Full programming No Yes No Yes No
5
Cox
Time Warner
DirecTV
Dish Net
Net op MVNO (Pivot)
Net op MVNO (Pivot)
No No
No No
Coax / Fiber MVNO (Pivot)
Coax / Fiber MVNO (Pivot)
Satellite No
Satellite No
Full programming MVNO (Pivot)
Full programming MVNO (Pivot)
Full programming No
Full programming No
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
Yes No
Yes No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Voice Leaders: Verizon, AT&T, Sprint
Speaker 7: Christian Dippon of NERA Economic Consulting
Law Seminars International | Wireless Telecommunications | 11/8/07 in Seattle, WA
of NERA Economic Consulting Page 4
Law Seminars International | Wireless Telecommunications | 11/8/07 in Seattle, WA
Data, Video Leaders: Which Player Will Prevail?
Voice
Fixed Wireless
Data
Fixed Wireless
Video
Fixed Wireless
Other Services
FixedVoIP
WirelessVoIP
Bundles
Fixed
Triple Quadruple
Verizon
AT&T
Qwest
Embarq
Net op MNO
Net op MNO
Net op MVNO
Net op MVNO
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
FiOS Video Cast Mobile TV
Uverse TV Cellular Video
DirecTV JV MVNO
Dish Net JV MVNO
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
Yes MVNO
Yes MVNO
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
MobileAT&T Mobility
Verizon Wireless
Sprint Nextel
T-Mobile
Net op MNO
Net op MNO
No MNO
No MNO
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
No HSDPA
No HSDPA
Uverse TV Cellular Video
FiOS Video Cast Mobile TV
No Sprint TV
No
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
No Yes
No Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
VideoComcast Net op No Coax / Fiber No Full programming No Yes No Yes No
6
Cox
Time Warner
DirecTV
Dish Net
Net op MVNO (Pivot)
Net op MVNO (Pivot)
No No
No No
Coax / Fiber MVNO (Pivot)
Coax / Fiber MVNO (Pivot)
Satellite No
Satellite No
Full programming MVNO (Pivot)
Full programming MVNO (Pivot)
Full programming No
Full programming No
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
Yes No
Yes No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Data, Video Leaders:Comcast, Cox, Time Warner
(later Verizon and AT&T)
Overall Leaders: Which Player Will Prevail?
Voice
Fixed Wireless
Data
Fixed Wireless
Video
Fixed Wireless
Other Services
FixedVoIP
WirelessVoIP
Bundles
Fixed
Triple Quadruple
Verizon
AT&T
Qwest
Embarq
Net op MNO
Net op MNO
Net op MVNO
Net op MVNO
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
FiOS Video Cast Mobile TV
Uverse TV Cellular Video
DirecTV JV MVNO
Dish Net JV MVNO
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
Yes MVNO
Yes MVNO
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
MobileAT&T Mobility
Verizon Wireless
Sprint Nextel
T-Mobile
Net op MNO
Net op MNO
No MNO
No MNO
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
No HSDPA
No HSDPA
Uverse TV Cellular Video
FiOS Video Cast Mobile TV
No Sprint TV
No
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
No Yes
No Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
VideoComcast Net op No Coax / Fiber No Full programming No Yes No Yes No
7
Cox
Time Warner
DirecTV
Dish Net
Net op MVNO (Pivot)
Net op MVNO (Pivot)
No No
No No
Coax / Fiber MVNO (Pivot)
Coax / Fiber MVNO (Pivot)
Satellite No
Satellite No
Full programming MVNO (Pivot)
Full programming MVNO (Pivot)
Full programming No
Full programming No
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
Yes No
Yes No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Overall Leaders: AT&T, Verizon
Speaker 7: Christian Dippon of NERA Economic Consulting
Law Seminars International | Wireless Telecommunications | 11/8/07 in Seattle, WA
of NERA Economic Consulting Page 5
Law Seminars International | Wireless Telecommunications | 11/8/07 in Seattle, WA
Consolidation and Followers: Which Player Will Prevail?
Voice
Fixed Wireless
Data
Fixed Wireless
Video
Fixed Wireless
Other Services
FixedVoIP
WirelessVoIP
Bundles
Fixed
Triple Quadruple
Verizon
AT&T
Qwest
Embarq
Net op MNO
Net op MNO
Net op MVNO
Net op MVNO
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
FiOS Video Cast Mobile TV
Uverse TV Cellular Video
DirecTV JV MVNO
Dish Net JV MVNO
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
Yes MVNO
Yes MVNO
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
MobileAT&T Mobility
Verizon Wireless
Sprint Nextel
T-Mobile
Net op MNO
Net op MNO
No MNO
No MNO
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
DSL / Fiber HSDPA
No HSDPA
No HSDPA
Uverse TV Cellular Video
FiOS Video Cast Mobile TV
No Sprint TV
No
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
No Yes
No Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
VideoComcast Net op No Coax / Fiber No Full programming No Yes No Yes No
8
Cox
Time Warner
DirecTV
Dish Net
Net op MVNO (Pivot)
Net op MVNO (Pivot)
No No
No No
Coax / Fiber MVNO (Pivot)
Coax / Fiber MVNO (Pivot)
Satellite No
Satellite No
Full programming MVNO (Pivot)
Full programming MVNO (Pivot)
Full programming No
Full programming No
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
Yes No
Yes No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Consolidations and followers:Qwest, Embarq, T-Mobile, DirectTV, Dish Net,
and smaller players not included above
Key Issues Impacting the Race to Quadruple Play
Net Neutrality (Content Provider vs. Network Operator)
Reclassification of dominant carriers (Verizon, AT&T, etc.) Reclassification of dominant carriers (Verizon, AT&T, etc.)
Video franchising
Spectrum allocation
Skype Motion / Carterphone Rule
9
Mobile TV standards
Attitude to MVNOs / MVNO regulation
General regulatory environment
Speaker 7: Christian Dippon of NERA Economic Consulting
Law Seminars International | Wireless Telecommunications | 11/8/07 in Seattle, WA
of NERA Economic Consulting Page 6
Law Seminars International | Wireless Telecommunications | 11/8/07 in Seattle, WA
Contact UsContact Us
Christian M. Dippon
Vice PresidentSan FranciscoSan Francisco+1 415 291 [email protected]
© Copyright 2007National Economic Research Associates, Inc.
All rights reserved.