THE THREE DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY IN VIEW OF NUCLEAR POWER

KIRSTY GOGANGLOBAL DIRECTOR, ENERGY FOR HUMANITYMANAGING PARTNER, LUCIDCATALYST

STOCKHOLM, JANUARY 2020

Prosperity

Prosperity

Prosperity

Energy density and protection of nature go hand in hand.

Energy density and protection of nature go hand in hand

Prosperity

Prosperity

But what about the waste?

Prosperity

One person’s total lifetime’s volume of high level radioactive waste if they used nothing but nuclear energy for their whole life.

Prosperity

But isn’t it too slow

How much clean generation can be added in 10 years?

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Sweden

France

UAE

Belgium

Slovakia

Taiwan

S. Korea

Germany

Japan

USA

Denmark

Spain

Germany

Italy

USA

California

Japan

China 2004-2014

2004-2014

2004-2014

2004-2014

2004-2014

2004-2014

2004-2014

2004-2014

1981-1991

1977-1987

1975-1985

1995-2005

1979-1989

1979-1989

1977-1987

2010-2020

1979-1989

1976-1986

Nuclear (Projected)

Nuclear

Wind

Solar

kWh per capita per year added annually

Source: Cao et al., Science, August 2016.

UAE projections by WNA

Prosperity

Prosperity

But isn’t it too expensive?

Prosperity

What does success look like?

Energy for Humanity: European Climate Leadership Report. Measuring the Metrics that Matter

Prosperity

What do we need?

Prosperity

Decarbonization

Prosperity

What is the reality today?

3.5 billion people live in large cities now and by 2050 it will be 7-8 billion

Powered by coalPowered by coal

Coal capacity is still increasing

Protests can’t solve the problem

Coal is the way out of poverty

INCREASED ENERGY ACCESS IS DEVELOPMENT

29

Source: DNV 2019

Source: EIA 2019

Even in projections of massive growth of renewables, a majority of primary energy is still fossil in 2050

60% Fossil in 2050

>60% Fossil

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

How do we make this happen—while growing energy access?

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

What do we need to do if we are going to make something like this

happen while growing energy access?

Short Time30 years

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

What do we need to do if we are going to make something like this

happen while growing energy access?

Short Time30 years

Lots to do!

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

What do we need to do if we are going to make something like this

happen while growing energy access?

Short Time30 years

Lots to do!

• Repower all coal plants with new heat source

FUTURE COAL—MORE THAN 5,000 PLANTS

Source: Carbon Brief

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

What do we need to do if we are going to make something like this

happen while growing energy access?

Short Time30 years

Lots to do!

• Repower all coal plants with new heat source• Convert all liquid fuel use to carbon neutral

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

What do we need to do if we are going to make something like this

happen while growing energy access?

Short Time30 years

Lots to do!

• Repower all coal plants with new heat source• Convert all liquid fuel use to carbon neutral• Replace all natural gas use with H2 or NH3

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

What do we need to do if we are going to make something like this

happen while growing energy access?

Short Time30 years

Lots to do!

• Repower all coal plants with new heat source• Convert all liquid fuel use to carbon neutral• Replace all natural gas use with H2 or NH3• Massive increase in Africa generating capacity

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

What do we need to do if we are going to make something like this

happen while growing energy access?

Short Time30 years

Lots to do!

• Repower all coal plants with new heat source• Convert all liquid fuel use to carbon neutral• Replace all natural gas use with H2 or NH3• Massive increase in Africa generating capacity• Electrify as much as possible

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

What do we need to do if we are going to make something like this

happen while growing energy access?

Short Time30 years

Lots to do!

• Repower all coal plants with new heat source• Convert all liquid fuel use to carbon neutral• Replace all natural gas use with H2 or NH3• Massive increase in Africa generating capacity• Electrify as much as possible

Really, Really Fast

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

Short Time30 years

What is this?

Wait a second…

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

Short Time30 years

600 GW for Carbon Removal

For 20Gt/y

WE’VE DONE SOMETHING LIKE THIS BEFORE

5x in 67 years

The world needs genuine zero-carbonsubstitutes for coal, oil, and gas

Cheap

Abundant

Clean

Reliable

Safe

Fast to deploy

Able to repower existing coal plants

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C 2018

Short Time30 years

Likelihood of getting on these

pathways is slim without much better

technology/delivery models

Scalable fast to deploy energy sources

look to be very useful in the 2030’s

and beyond

Production of fuels and heat may be

more important than production of

electricity

Prosperity

But nuclear is so unpopular

56

57

More people support nuclear as part of the low carbon energy mix

Source: YouGov

72

65 6567

70

77

7175

7875

7274

810 10

8 911

1311 11 12 13

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

%

Support Oppose

UK QUARTERLY TRACKING DATA (2017)

SOURCE: SKDK (CATF)

LUCIDCATALYST FLEXIBLE NUCLEAR STUDY FOR ARPA-E: ISO-NE NREL

• Overall generation increases in the Advanced Nuclear scenario enabling clean energy exports.

61

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

2018 2034

Baseline

2034

Adv Nuclear

MW

Installed Capacity

Bio/Other

Wind

Solar

Hydro

Adv nuc with ES

Existing nuclear

Oil

Natural gas

Coal

-17 216

-20 000

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

GW

h

Imports/Exports

Bio/Other

Wind

Solar

Hydro

Adv nuc with ES

Existing nuclear

Oil

Natural gas

Coal

2018 2034

Baseline

2034

Adv Nuclear

Generation and Imports/Exports

CLOSE UP ON 2034 SCENARIO: DISPATCH IN MID JULY (DURING SEASONAL SOLAR PEAK)

62

Flexible advanced nuclear, when coupled with storage, can

provide the same grid flexibility as CCGTs

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

MW

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

MW

1 Plant(500 MW average 1GW peak)

10 Plants(5,000 MW average10GW Peak)

All our climate solutions need to be impossible burgers