TIGGE LAM - World Meteorological Organization Extranet · The TIGGE LAM archive will continue to be maintained at ECMWF, ... Large ensemble ... WMO secretariat and ECMWF to arrange

Mesoscale Wg meeting – Montreal 2014

TIGGE LAM & …Tiziana Paccagnella

TIGGE LAM report - Tiziana Paccagnella


Outline

TIGGE LAM Archive at ECMWF: status and possiblefuture developments Few words about the USA Big Weather

Some words on TIGGE LAM SRNWP EPS Project LAMEPS BC cooperation between SRNWP and ECMWF


Mesoscale Wg meeting – Montreal 2014 TIGGE LAM report - Tiziana Paccagnella




TIGGE-LAM archive at ECMWF @ OSC Montreal 2014



List of archived parameters

Instant fields10m U-velocity, 10m V-velocity, CAPE (not HP), CIN (not HP), MSLP, 2mT, 2m dewpointT

Accumulated fields total and large scale precipitation, 10 metre wind gust (in the last 3 hours)

Static fieldsOrography, LSM

TIGGE-LAM archive

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List of archived parameters

Instant fields10m U-velocity, 10m V-velocity, CAPE (not HP), CIN (not HP), MSLP, 2mT, 2m dewpointT

Accumulated fields total and large scale precipitation,10 metre wind gust

(in the last 3 hours)

Static fieldsOrography, LSM

TIGGE-LAM archive

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Processing and archiving of LAM data follow the way the TIGGE global archive works

Used technologies Shell / C / python code for data processing and verification SMS(Supervisor Monitor Scheduler) for running of TIGGE-

LAM (quasi)operational suite MARS(Meteorological Archive and Retrieval System) for data

storage Web or MARS batch interface for data access



http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/tigge_lam/


TIGGE-LAM archivehttp://tigge.ecmwf.int/tigge/d/tigge_lam_history

30.9.-3.10.2013 SRNWP meeting, Antalya 12


Challenges To archive multi-model ensembles like GLAMEPS

or especially PEPS (missing parameters for some models; varying forecast lengths; different model domains; varying EPS size for different run times etc.)

To achieve homogeneity in TIGGE-LAM archive without major or often repeated gaps (impossibility to re-process all EPS forecasts from the past for some systems = major difference to TIGGE global datasets).

TIGGE-LAM archive



A prototype of a time-series archive has beendeveloped to improve accessibility ofTIGGE/TIGGE-LAM to efficiently access longtime series of forecast data at specificgeographical locations. Time series will beavailable for synop stations and selected otherlocations defined for specific purposes.

TIGGE LAM time series at specificlocations


Regarding additional point of interest for high resolution European TIGGE-LAM forecasts only 4 proposals were received from partners during last half a year: 1. Italy - to include some selection of

stations from their own high density networks (around 500 locations)

2. 2. DWD - to add some wind mast stations (around 40 already provided), but there is a link to new parameters requirement which would have to be archived

3. 3. Lawrence Wilson - to consider e.g. European high density networks at least for precipitation (MAP project)

4. 4. MetOffice - they will provide some additional locations


TIGGE LAM Europe archive at ECMWF: next steps.

The TIGGE LAM archive will continue to be maintained at ECMWF, together with the TIGGEglobal archive, after the end of THORPEX and GEOWOW.A CRITICITY: the normal maintenance of TIGGE LAM is probably much moredemanding because systems configurations are changing frequently withsensible impact on the archive structure.

It is intended that the TIGGE-LAM archive - including the infrastructure, software tools andcontent - will continue to be developed. The extent of the developments will obviously depend onthe availability of funding and resources.

New parameters will be added to the archive to support WMO-endorsed scientific projects,including the HI Weather (High Impact Weather) THORPEX Legacy project that is now underdevelopment.

New datasets could also be added in the future to include project datasets or severe/high impactweather event datasets.


TIGGE LAM Europe archive at ECMWF: next steps.

The developed infrastructure will now be used also by other research projects such as S2S (Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project), and UERRA (Uncertainties in Ensembles of RegionalReAnalyses).


Other possible future developments

1. TIGGE LAM “operational” regional archive

The ECMWF TIGGE LAM "Operational" archive (of operational europeanLAM EPS) should be further developed in this new project both as regardsthe content and as regards the tools to access and elaborate the products.

The content should be enriched to improve the support to forecasting andpredictability studies also following what requested by the major researchprojects. As regards weather forecasting strong links and collaborations mustbe established with the new WMO/WWRP HIW (High Impact Weather)Project taking part of the legacy of Thorpex.

TIGGE-LAM Tiziana Paccagnella18


Two other TIGGE LAM possible streams:

2. TIGGE LAM "Project" Archive(s)

LAM EPS products, and possibly extra-obervations, from the Major WMO endorsed projects are archived in a TIGGE LAM compliant format. During these projects many state of the art and newly developed systems are run over the same domain and many extra-observations are available.Present options: HYMEX

FROST

option 1) the archive is hosted at ECMWF as a new branch of the TIGGE LAM archiveoption 2) the archives are hosted at other Centres (Meteo-France or Roshydromet), but the specifics are the same adopted for the operational archive at ECMWF.

Metadata are written following ECMWF (WMO) indications and the metadata information are presented also at ECMWF and/or on a common web interface.




3. TIGGE LAM "Severe/HIW Case" Archive(s)). This has been proposed during the last GIFS TIGGE meeting. The idea was by Craig Bishop. When an interesting HIW occurs, the scientific LAM EPS community could be solicited to run their systems (a call for run) for this case and the outputs could be archived all together following the TIGGE LAM rules.In this archive, all the available observations should also been included (as for the other previous archives).




All the archives are implemented following TIGGE and TIGGE LAM standardsAll the tools to manage ane extract data must be as similar as possible; the optimum would be shared.

Common web interface to accessTIGGE LAM products

TIGGE LAM OP LAM EPS

archive at ECMWF

WMO endorsed

project LAM EPS

archives

HIW or otherrelevantweather

eventarchives

Some possible links:

Josh Hacker (NCAR), Craig Bishop (NRLto liaise and coordinate LAM EPS cooperative initiatives (e.g. Big Weather) and to agree on the archives stuctureand content



Big WeatherU.S.-NSF sponsored workshop inspired by TIGGE-LAM and EarthCube (U.S. NSF)

NCAR, Jan. 2013, university and lab representatives; computer scientists and LAM-EPS experts

Objectives: Identify barriers to exchange and analysis of NWP data Identify the NWP-relevant scientific progress that may be realized

by removing data barriers Identify promising technologies emerging from computer science

disciplines Identify educational opportunities possible under a new paradigm

of populating and sharing real-time NWP data

J. Hacker, March 2014

By Josh Hacker


Science drivers

Convection-allowing ensembles as a research topic and for predictability studies

Ensemble sensitivities as an alternative to high-resolution adjoints

Physics sensitivity across scales (e.g. scale-aware physics and stochastic physics)


By Josh Hacker


Suggested nuclei for action

A large ensemble consisting of contributions from multiple universities, which form a functional group representing the broader ensemble forecasting community.

A common storage, linking, and cataloging methodology among the participants, which allows research on data, product, and workflow provenance.

A cyber-infrastructure (e.g. including a virtual machine) for research and education in short-range ensemble forecasting, allowing rapid spin-up, access to sharing technologies, and communication of best practices.


By Josh Hacker


Ensemble requirements

Resolution sufficient to permit explicit convection to be relevant to future systems

Ensemble size of order 100 members to enable detection of weak signals amidst the noise

Wide variety of model configurations to explore the broad parameter space


By Josh Hacker


One possible approach

Attempt to balance ensemble diversity with needs of individual groups (who all have different sources of funding): Common, pre-defined outer domain covering CONUS; 10

km grid spacing; Large ensemble 3-5 subdomains at 3.3 km grid spacing; participants

choose the one most relevant to their region and interests; Convection allowing

Individual freedom to configure model; Disparate funding


By Josh Hacker




Some spots and actions regarding TIGGE LAM following the last GIFS PDP joint meeting

Action J.5.2: WMO secretariat and ECMWF to arrange for a press release to publicise the launch of TIGGE-LAM.




Action J.5.3: TP, RM, RS & WMO secretariat to prepare a leaflet to publicise TIGGE-LAM in time for distribution at GEO & EGU meetings in April.





Action J.7.2: Tiziana Paccagnella to inform current TIGGE-LAM panel members of the decision to wrap up TIGGE-LAM panel.

Action J.7.3: ECMWF is invited to form a TIGGE panel comprising all TIGGE partners and regional representatives of TIGGE-LAM. Co-chairs & ECMWF to propose brief ToR for the TIGGE panel.





Action J.7.2: Tiziana Paccagnella to inform current TIGGE-LAM panel members of the decision to wrap up TIGGE-LAM panel.

Action J.7.3: ECMWF is invited to form a TIGGE panel comprising all TIGGE partners and regional representatives of TIGGE-LAM. Co-chairs & ECMWF to propose brief ToR for the TIGGE panel.

Link HI Weather project ……………………………….Links between this project and TIGGE-LAM will be very important not least for supporting specific RDPs/FDPs but using the LAM database for predictability studies. The question of how HI Weather can benefit from TIGGE-LAM will be one of the topics covered by a workshop in June in the USA. One possibility might be to flag events of interest to HI Weather in the

The SRNWP-EPS Project

• SRNWP-EPS (SRNWP cooperation on Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction Systems) is a EUMETNET Project with the final aim to contribute to build European very high-resolution ensemble systems, resolving the convection-permitting scale phenomena

• The Phase I of the project, coordinated by AEMET, took place from January 2013 to June 2014

• The aim of the Activity SRNWP-EPS Phase I was to provide a Feasibility Study, which should include the new Project Proposal where the Activity SRNWP-EPS Phase II for cooperation in Europe in the fields of LAM-EPS is specified for the years to come

Chiara Marsigli

SRNWP-EPS – requirements for Phase II

Designing the requirements for Phase II, the focus has been put on the topics with the following characteristic:

• possibility to obtain the greatest benefit by a European cooperation. This is linked to their character of independency on the specific modeling system and their matching the needs of most of the NMSs

• possibility to identify few tasks which can be accomplished within a limited amount of time and with a dedicated amount of resources, leading to clear and tangible outcomes

• coexistence of both operational and (focused) research activities, in order to satisfy the different needs of the NMSs

Chiara Marsigli

The topics which have been identified for the Phase II proposal focus on all-the-steps-towards-the-development of a methodology for the probabilistic prediction of severe weather phenomena (e.g. thunderstorms), relevant for the operational duties of the NMSs. The activity is organized as:

• an application task, where new products and methodologies for calibration of LAM ensembles for extremes and for probabilistic prediction of thunderstorms are developed

• a research task, where the sensitivity and complementarity of the models to soil conditions and PBL are studied on the basis of the forecast of the selected phenomena

The products for (probabilistic) forecast of selected weather phenomena provides a test-bed for the research task, ensuring both the development of products for the selected phenomena and the improvement of the description of these phenomena and of the related uncertainty

SRNWP-EPS – requirements for Phase II

• The proposal for a Phase II will be submitted to the EUMETNET STAC/PFAC in October 2014 and, if approved, to the EUMETNET Assembly in November 2014

• The project is proposed to run for about 3 years (2015-2017)

SRNWP-EPS - Phase II

Chiara Marsigli

BCs for LAMEPS

Chiara Marsigli

BCs for LAMEPSUnder the coordination of the Expert Team on Predictability and EPS of the C-SRNWP Programme, a cooperation is ongoing between ECMWF and severalEuropean Weather Services.ECMWF provided the LAMEPS community data from different ensembleconfigurations to foster research with convection-permitting ensembles.Initial and boundary conditions from ECMWF ENS were provided from twoexperimental ENS datasets:

• Experiment R (operational resolution): TL639 (32 km)

• Experiment H (higher resolution): TL1279 (16 km)

20+1 forecasts twice daily at 00 and 12 UTC, 7-day forecast range

Model physics and perturbation methodologies as in 38r1 ope ENS

Chiara Marsigli

ECMWF ENS experiments for LAMEPS research

Experiments covered 98 cases in 3 periods:

a) 23 Oct ‒ 7 Nov 2011 (floods over Italy and France),b) 26 Dec 2011‒8 Jan 2012 (storms over Northern Europe),c) 10‒28 June 2012 (Alpine summer convection causing floods and landslides).

Model level data were archived 1-hourly until 48 h and 3-hourly afterwards(archive volume limited through archiving of regional grid-point fields speedsup retrieval significantly). Surface and pressure level data archived 3-hourly.

Chiara Marsigli

Concluding remarks

Outcome:results have been presented and discussed during the a meeting of the C-SRNWP LAM EPS groups hosted by ECMWF in December 2013. It was found that this increase of horizontal resolution of the ENS is only slightly beneficial in most of the implementations

This cooperation is still ongoing with experiments to test the impact of morefrequent BCs

Chiara Marsigli


Thank you!



COSMO-LEPS by ARPA-SIMC (on behalf of COSMO), GREEN ALADIN-LAEF by ZAMG, BEIGE COSMO-DE-EPS by DWD, CYAN MOGREPS by UK Met Office PURPLE HUNEPS by Hungarian Met Office, YELLOW


TIGGE-LAMEuropean LAM EPS archiving at ECMWFRichard Mladek (ECMWF)

Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-ER SIMC)

Mesoscale Wg meeting – Montreal 2014TIGGE LAM – SOCHI FDP RDP KICK-OFF meeting -1-3 March 2011

TIGGE

The WWRP/THORPEX/TIGGE project has developed adatabase of global ensemble forecasts collected in near real-time.Objectives: Enhance collaboration on ensemble prediction, both

internationally and between operational centres & universities. Facilitate research on ensemble prediction methods, especially

methods to combine ensembles and to correct systematic errors


TIGGE LAM archiving: short summary

After the set-up of the TIGGE LAM Panel, one of the first action planned was the contribution of LAM EPS to the TIGGE archive.

4th of October 2007,Tigge-LAM meeting,San Lorenzo de El Escorial, Spain. We defined a list of parameters to be archived High Priority parameters were shortlisted We agreed to adopt GRIB2 coding as prescribed by TIGGE We decided to ask TIGGE LAM/LAM EPS providers to interpolate their products

on a regular lat/lon grid at 0.1° horizontal resolution (which is not the case anymore!!!!).

This homogenization of the datasets was decided to facilitate the use of ourproducts by scientists and users outside the meteorological modeling community.Hydrologists in primis.

ECMWF did not have at that time the SW utilities to allow the management andpost-elaboration of LAM products on different rotated or projected grids.

Tiziana Paccagnella – TIGGE LAM


It was decided to ask the three TIGGE archiving Centres to host the TIGGE LAM archives. They accepted.

ECMWF was asked to archive European systems and few others (e.g. south Africa ..)NCAR to archive Americas and CanadaCMA to archive Asian products.

Other systems were not on the list at that time and each specific new entry should have been considered when necessary.

Even if some preliminary work was started, everything was dumped due to lack of devoted resources.




More recently, during the writing of the TIGGE LAM Plan,it was decided to remove the option of interpolating on acommon grid. It was proposed to keep the full modelresolution and preserve the original information. Anyway itwas just theory since no resources were available.




The idea of the TIGGE LAM archive only recently came to life in the frame of GEOWOW project (more specifically its Work Package 4 led by ECMWF).

ECMWF assignee for GEOWOWAccountable: Florian PappenbergerParticipants on TIGGE-LAM archive:

Baudouin Raoult (technical lead)

Richard Mladek (archive development)

Manuel Fuentes (MARS related development)

Shahram Najm (GRIB-API related modifications)

TIGGE-LAM archive


Mesoscale Wg meeting – Montreal 201430.9.-3.10.2013 SRNWP meeting, Antalya 49

“Understanding the Earth system — its weather, climate, oceans, atmosphere, water, land, geodynamics, natural resources, ecosystems, and natural and human-induced hazards — is crucial to enhancing human health, safety and welfare, alleviating human suffering including poverty, protecting the global environment, reducing disaster losses, and achieving sustainable development. Observations of the Earth system constitute critical input for advancing this understanding.”

GEOWOW


• The group on Earth Observations (GEO) initiated the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

• GEOWOW, short for “GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water” supports this objective

• GEOWOW’s main challenge is to improve Earth observation data discovery, accessibility and exploitability, and to evolve GEOSS in terms of interoperability, standardization and functionality

• GEOWOW is an EU-funded FP7 project that began in September 2011



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TIGGE LAM - World Meteorological Organization Extranet · The TIGGE LAM archive will continue to be maintained at ECMWF, ... Large ensemble ... WMO secretariat and ECMWF to arrange