7/30/2019 Todays Zaman 2
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crisis between Tehran and Baku: impending orimagined?Recent
developments in Iran-Azerbaijan relations have re-opened questions
about a possible return to crisis. Anyone monitoringlocal
developments in the South Caucasus and it is not, it seems, on the
radar of the international media -- is aware that Iranhas issued
several threats targeting Azerbaijan. Iran's Kayhan daily
newspaper, which has close ties to Iran's clerics, has calledfor a
public referendum in Azerbaijan on whether to join Iran. A group of
Iranian deputies is preparing a bill calling for therenegotiation
of the 1828 Russia-Persia Treaty of Turkmenchay, which determined
the current Iran-Azerbaijan border.Iran's paranoia about foreign
relations is somewhat understandable, given the escalating tensions
over Iranian nuclear
ambitions. A US Senate resolution pledging the use of military
force and other sanctions in support of Israel against Iran has
cleared the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and seems likely
to pass. Iran feels increasingly insecure in advance of the
upcoming presidential election. On the other hand, in the Middle
East the US is championing a new agenda whereby President
Barack Obama has succeeded in restoring ties between Tel-Aviv
and Ankara. In Tehran, policymakers understand that these
moves are not empty rhetoric. Iran is struggling against the
combined weight of international and internal instability, which in
turn
are creating feelings of political paranoia. There is a risk
that this could turn into a popular uprising during the
election.
But this doesn't quite explain why Azerbaijan has become a focus
for Iranian paranoia; furthermore, Iran is no stranger to
international opprobrium and tensions. In this light, it is
worth looking more closely at recent developments.
First of all, in mid-March, an Armenian-sponsored radio station
began broadcasting "The Voice of Talyshistan" radio program
out of Shusha, an Azerbaijani city under Armenian occupation.
The Armenian media asserts that the station's main goal is to
protect the rights of the Talysh, an ethnic minority group
living in Azerbaijan. There is no clear evidence that Iran is
financially or
otherwise supporting this broadcast and indeed, the Iranian side
officially rejected such accusations on March 28. But several
political and academic conferences and seminars have been
organized with Iranian support and in 2008 the editors of the
local
newspaper Tolyshi Sado (Voice of the Talysh) confessed that Iran
was helping to finance the newspaper and bringing religious
books to Azerbaijan. One member of the paper's editorial board
has been imprisoned in Azerbaijan and just recently another
employee was sentenced, though apparently on unrelated
grounds.
Further problems arose when the National Liberation Front of
South Azerbaijan hosted a conference in Baku on March 30 titled
The Future of Modern South Azerbaijan with speakers from Iran's
Azerbaijani diaspora and former deputies. During the
conference, one of the speakers suggested that Azerbaijan should
change its policy toward Azerbaijanis living in Iran. Following
this conference, the Iranian Foreign Minister summoned the
Azerbaijani ambassador to Tehran and sent an official
communication. Official Baku stated that they had no ties to the
conference. However, in response, Iranian deputies, as
mentioned above, seek to renegotiate the 19th century border
agreement, claiming Azerbaijan as Iranian territory.
The conference in Baku, however, was planned several months
prior to the current tensions and given that the participants
and
speakers are not in line with government policies on numerous
issues, it cannot be claimed that the meeting had government
support. On the matter of the Talysh radio station, there is no
clear evidence of Iranian ties, but it is clear that this
development
serves Iranian interests. For instance, in January the
Azerbaijani-American community from Iran issued a petition to the
Obama
administration declaring that Iran is violating the basic rights
of Iranian Azerbaijanis. In addition, in recent months,
Azerbaijanis
exiled from Iran have sought to gain support for
Iranian-Azerbaijanis, trying to launch television and radio
programs abroad. The
Western media has remained largely silent on the issue of the
violation of the rights of Azerbaijanis in Iran and few outside
of
the Iran know of these violations. It might be that in this
sense it is in Iran's interests to support the Talysh radio station
in order
to influence this group and use this as a means to provoke
Azerbaijan and increase the threat of ethnic separatism.
Recent developments show that ahead of the presidential election
in Iran, the local Azeri population is seen by the regime as a
potential source of trouble, as there are signs that a political
awakening is underway. At a recent football match (Tractor of
Tabriz) local fans started chanting, South Azerbaijan is not
Iran. They were arrested. In this light, the Iranian deputies'
threatened legislation does not represent a serious risk, but
rather shows how worried Iran is about a political awakening of
its
Azerbaijani minority.
Last but not least, a global perspective suggests that Iran's
fears were born following March 21, when in Turkey a new period
of
internal stability was launched via an agreement with the Kurds
and first step of reconciliation with Israel was taken.
However,
Iran is worried that Turkey may not act to stop military
interventions in Iran, following the deterioration in bilateral
relations since
the Syrian crisis. In addition, Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister
will be the highest-level official to visit Israel since
independence
when he travels there next week. Thus, Iran will fear ethnic
uprisings by both Kurdish and Azerbaijani minorities during the
run-
up to the election, as well as focusing its efforts on
interfering with the US' strategic game, whereby Tehran tries to
pursue a
