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Transport Market Monitor
Following a seasonal recovery at the beginning of the year, available transport capacity has been declining again since March
Edition: 35 (May 2018)
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 2
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© Capgemini/TRANSPOREON 2018
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 3
Summary
This is the 35th edition of the Transport Market Monitor. It outlines
developments in European road transport rates and includes the
figures of the first quarter of 2018.
● In Q1 2018, the capacity index increased by 53.3% to 110.1
compared to the previous quarter. Compared to Q1 2017 the
index value of Q1 2018 is 2.4% lower.
● The price index decreased in Q1 2018 to an index of 92.1,
which is a decrease of 14.7% compared to Q4 2017 (index
107.9). Compared to the price index of Q1 2017, the price
index increased by 7.1%.
● From the previous quarter, the diesel index increased 3%.
Compared to the same period last year, this year is 3%
higher.
● The European Trade Flow Index is expected to increase by
18.3% in Q1 2018.
These are the conclusions of the Transport Market Monitor by
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting, a quarterly
publication, which aims to track transport market dynamics.
This report is the thirty-fifth edition of the
Transport Market Monitor. Each quarter, a
new edition will outline the developments
during the past three months and reviews
additional themes in transportation.
All indices in this report are based on the
logistics platform TRANSPOREON, which
handles a yearly transport volume
(different truck types, mainly FTL and
LTL), covering all European countries.
Information is anonymously exported from
the platform and aggregately analyzed by
Capgemini Consulting.
The figures in the Transport Market
Monitor date back to January 2008: the
earliest point of measurement of the index
figures. For all indices, the average
figures of the six months period January
2008 till June 2008 (H1 2008) have been
set as the basis for comparison (Index
100).
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 4
Capacities slightly below previous year's level
This section of the Transport Market Monitor outlines the
quarterly developments of the price and capacity index, since the
beginning of the measurements in 2008 until the first quarter of
2018.
In Q1 2018, the capacity index increased by 53.3% to 110.1,
compared to the previous quarter (index 71.8). In Q1 2017 the
capacity index was 112.8, which means the index value for Q1
2018 is 2.4% lower than last year’s.
The price index (see Figure 1) decreased in Q1 2018 to an index
of 92.1, which is a decrease of 14.7% compared to Q4 2017
(index 107.9). Compared to the price index of Q1 2017, the price
index increased by 7.1%.
Figure 1: Price and capacity index, quarterly (Q1 2012 – Q1 2018)
For the price and capacity indices, the average figures of the six months period January 2008 till June 2008
have been set as the basis for comparison (Index 100). Figure 1 shows the indices of the last 25 quarters.
92,7
99,4 100,098,2
90,2
100,6 100,0101,2
91,5
100,0 99,498,2
94,5
104,9
100,6
98,2
91,5
96,395,1 94,5
86,0
101,2 101,8
107,9
92,1
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317 Q118
Cap
ac
ity i
nd
ex
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price and capacity index (quarterly figures)
Price index Capacity index
The price index is calculated by
comparing the average price per
kilometer over time.
The Capacity Index is an indicator for
“available capacity”, the ratio between
absolute demand and capacity. The
capacity index is calculated by comparing
the average number of bids in response
to a transport request over time.
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 5
Price and capacity follow a known pattern
This section of the Transport Market Monitor depicts the monthly developments in the price and capacity index
over the last twelve months. In Q1 2018, the capacity index showed significant growth, with a peak in February
2018 with an index of 131.9. In March, however, the index value fell again to 105.7, which is in line with Q1
2017.
The price index showed a declining, but fluctuating pattern, with January 2018 showing a decrease of 9.3%
compared to December 2017, and February dropping even further to 87.2, another drop of 8.3%. In contrast,
March increased again by 7%.
The year has started off with the highest capacity index and lowest price seen in the past 12 months. However,
reflecting on the past years, a recurring trend seems to be that the first two months of the year show the highest
capacity index of the year and lower prices.
Figure 2: Price and capacity index, monthly (April 2017 – March 2018)
Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 Feb18 Mar18
Price index 100,6 99,4 103,7 101,2 96,3 107,3 113,4 104,3 104,9 95,1 87,2 93,3
Capacity index 63,8 66,4 66,8 69,1 78,2 56,7 61,1 80,2 75,8 97,3 131,9 105,7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Cap
ac
ity i
nd
ex
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price and capacity index (month by month)
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 6
Figure 3 compares the monthly development of the price index over the last twelve months, to the same period
one year before. In Q1 2018, the downward trend has continued from Q4 2017. This trend is very similar to the
same period in 2017. While the trend is the same, the average price of January, February and March is 7.1%
higher than the previous year.
Figure 3: Price index comparison, monthly (April 2017-March 2018)
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index comparison
Apr. '16 - Mar. '17 (Price index same period, last year) Apr. '17 - Mar. '18 (Price index last 12 months)
7,3
-0,6
7,9 7,34,9
9,1
15,912,8
8,77,3
4,36,7
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Difference in index points
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 7
Figure 4 compares the monthly development of the capacity index during the previous twelve months to the
same period one year before. Whereas the previous quarter showed a lower capacity index, this quarter was
very similar to the same period last year.
Figure 4: Capacity index comparison, monthly (April 2017 - March 2018)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Ca
pa
cit
y i
nd
ex
Capacity index comparison
Apr '16 – Mar. '17 (Capacity index same period, last year) Apr. '17 – Mar. '18 (Capacity index last 12 months)
-31,9
-5,0
-29,2
-20,1 -17,8 -15,8 -16,4
-26,2
-34,2
-3,4 -0,7 -1,0
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Difference in indexpoints
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 8
Industry focus
General economic conditions apply to most industries, but trends
may be stronger or weaker in individual industries. Analysis of the
price index by the type of industry identifies these differences,
visualized in Figure 5.
Although the previous quarter showed growth, Q1 2018 shows a
decline across all industries. A noticeable decline is in the
paperboard/paper material. Having ended the year with the
highest index, Q1 2018 shows a decline of almost 16% compared
to last quarter.
The construction materials industry price index decreased from
96.8 to 86.2 points. In the timber industry, the price index declined by 9.6% to an index of 100.8.
Figure 5: Price index for different industries (Q1 2008 – Q1 2018)
70
80
90
100
110
120
Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317 Q118
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index Construction materials
Construction Materials
70
80
90
100
110
120
Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317 Q118
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index Timber
Timber
70
80
90
100
110
120
Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317 Q118
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index Paperboard / Paper material
Paperboard / Paper material
The TRANSPOREON platform handles
transport for almost all industries. For the
Transport Market Monitor, three different
industry types have been analyzed
individually.
Each chart in Figure 5 depicts the price
development for that particular industry,
indexed against the industry baseline
(H1 2008).
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 9
Price difference is comparable to previous years
This section outlines transport dynamics, by analyzing the price difference between the highest and the lowest
price offered per transport order. Figure 6 illustrates the price difference between offers, and the development
of the capacity index. In the first quarter the price difference slightly increased to 22%. This is very similar to the
first quarters of the previous years, all between 19 and 22%
Figure 6: Capacity index and price difference (Q1 2012 – Q1 2018)
The price difference is an average figure. In general, price differences increase with the distance to be
travelled (see TMM, edition 1). Figure 6 shows the differences of the last 25 quarters.
20%
14%
16%
19%
22%
17% 18% 17%
21%
18% 18% 18%19%
16% 17%
19%
21%
18%19%
21%
20%18%
18%
19%
22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317 Q118
Dif
fere
nc
e b
etw
ee
n o
ffe
rs
Cap
ac
ity i
nd
ex
Capacity index and price difference (quarterly)
Price difference between offers Capacity index
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 10
Diesel index demonstrates small increase
This section compares the price index with the diesel index (see
Figure 7). In general, there is a positive correlation between the
diesel index and the price index, clearly indicating the impact of
diesel prices on transportation costs and consequently prices.
Q1 of 2018 showed a decrease in the price, however the diesel
index indicates a small increase compared to Q4 2017. From the
previous quarter, the diesel index increased 3%. Compared to
the same period last year, this year is 3% higher.
Figure 7: Price index and diesel index (Q1 2012 – Q1 2018)
For the price and capacity indices, the average figures of the six months period January 2008 till June 2008
have been set as the basis for comparison (Index 100). Figure 7 shows the indices of the last 25 quarters.
92,7
99,4 10098,2
90,2
100,6 100,0101,2
91,5
100,0 99,498,2
94,5
104,9
100,6
98,2
91,5
96,395,1 94,5
86,0
101,2 101,8
107,9
92,1
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317 Q118
Die
sel i
nd
ex
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price and diesel index (Quarterly)
Price index Diesel index
6%
-3%
2% 1%
-3%-6%
2%
-2% -2% -1% -1%
-10%
-16%
8%
-12%
0%
-19%
16%
2%
8%10%
-6%-3%
10%
3%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Change in diesel index (%) vs. previous quarter
For the diesel index, the average figures of
the six month period January 2008 till June
2008 have been set as the basis for
comparison (index 100), similar to the
other indices used in this report.
The calculation of the diesel index is based
on diesel price figures across the
European Union, obtained from the
European Commission via
http://ec.europa.eu/.
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 11
Major growth expected for European Trade Flow Index
This section features the European Trade Flow Index (ETFI). The
ETFI is derived from the Capgemini Consulting’s Global Trade
Flow Index, a measure of worldwide trade. The volume of trade
is a strong driver for transport demand and corresponding prices.
In Q1 2018 trade volumes in Europe are expected to increase by
18.3% to €2408 billion compared to Q4 2017 (€2035 billion). This
could be the largest increase since the start of the ETFI in Q4
2011. The trade volume in Q4 2017 decreased by 10.2%,
compared to Q3 2017. In comparison with the same period a year
ago, in Q1 2017, the Q1 2018 volume is expected to be 7.7%
higher.
Figure 8: European Trade Flow Index (Q4 2011 – Q1 2018E)
1.942
1.9951.979
2.001
1.9611.975
1.9521.9701.976
1.9891.9902.0082.018
2.047
2.1022.0742.077
2.037
2.0732.091
2.2072.2352.245
2.267
2.035
2.408
2,7%
-0,8%
1,1%
-2,0%
0,8%
-1,2%
0,9%0,3% 0,7%
0,1%0,9% 0,5%
1,4%
2,7%
-1,3%
0,2%
-2,0%
1,8%0,9%
5,6%
1,3%0,5%
0,9%
-10,2%
18,3%
-11%
-6%
-1%
4%
9%
14%
19%
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
Gro
wth
of
trad
e (
qu
art
er
on
qu
art
er)
To
tal tr
ad
e v
alu
e (
in b
illi
on
s)
Value (Billion €) Growth (%)
Capgemini Consulting’s Global Trade Flow
Index tracks the trade of goods and
services by quarter based on an analysis
of a number of trade and market-related
parameters from the latest available official
data (related to the import and export of
goods and services) from national
agencies. It is tailored to the European
market for this report, providing the
European Trade Flow Index.
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 12
Additional services related to the TMM
Transport Market Developments
A portfolio of offerings
Transport Market Radar
▪ Information on the most recent price and capacity developments in the European transport market
▪ Monthly dashboard about transports in Europe and within Germany ▪ Industry focus for transports within Germany ▪ Please find more information here
Transport Market Monitor
▪ Provides key insights in the European transport market with the quarterly overview of the most important trends
▪ Quarterly report ▪ Please find more information here
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 13
Next edition
This edition looked at the price and capacity developments since the beginning of the Transport Market Monitor
in 2008. It outlined a capacity index increase, with a decreased price index in Q1 2018, in comparison with the
beginning of TMM measurements (H1 2008). In March, however, in line with Q 1 2017 capacities again declined.
The next edition, number 36, will include the figures for Q2 2018. It will be published in August 2018.
About the Transport Market Monitor
The aim of the Transport Market Monitor is to provide insights into the development of transport prices, and
other transport market dynamics to logistics executives and other interest groups. It is a joint initiative of
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting.
The indices in the Monitor are based on the logistics platform TRANSPOREON, on which shippers tender and
process their transport needs to their preferred transport partners on a daily basis. The platform handles a yearly
transport volume of over €2 billion in all European countries. Anonymously, information is unlocked from the
platform and analyzed by Capgemini Consulting. This results in monthly indices which are published on a
quarterly basis. In addition to each publication of the Monitor, one or more market themes are discussed,
supported by detailed analysis.
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting can help you to find the right strategy between static and dynamic
prices. Additional information about both companies and their service offerings is available upon request.
This report is available at http://www.transportmarketmonitor.com. More information about the products and
services of both TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting can be obtained via the contact information
provided at the back of this report.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
TMM-team:
Capgemini Consulting: Thomas Fortgens (NL), Ilka Hendriksen (NL), Sven de Jong (NL), Lars Vitters (NL),
Josi Gwizdz (DE), Florentin Braunewell (DE)
TRANSPOREON: Oliver Kahrs (DE), Monika Stahl (DE), Katja Hufeland (DE)
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 14
About Capgemini and TRANSPOREON
About Capgemini
About TRANSPOREON
A global leader in consulting, technology services
and digital transformation, Capgemini is at the
forefront of innovation to address the entire breadth
of clients’ opportunities in the evolving world of
cloud, digital and platforms. Building on its strong
50-year heritage and deep industry-specific
expertise, Capgemini enables organizations to
realize their business ambitions through an array of
services from strategy to operations. Capgemini is
driven by the conviction that the business value of
technology comes from and through people. It is a
multicultural company of 200,000 team members in
over 40 countries. The Group reported 2017 global
revenues of EUR 12.8 billion (about $14.4 billion
USD at 2017 average rate).
Visit us at www.capgemini.com. People matter,
results count.
Capgemini Consulting is the global strategy and
transformation consulting organization of the
Capgemini Group, specializing in advising and
supporting enterprises in significant transformation,
from innovative strategy to execution and with an
unstinting focus on results. With the new digital
economy creating significant disruptions and
opportunities, the global team of 3,500 talented
individuals work with leading companies and
governments to master Digital Transformation,
drawing on their understanding of the digital
economy and leadership in business transformation
and organizational change.
Find out more at: http://www.capgemini-
consulting.com/
The logistics platform TRANSPOREON connects
shippers from industry & trading companies with
carriers, drivers & consignees – and optimizes and
accelerates logistics processes. Users of the
platform receive web-based SaaS (Software-as-a-
Service) solutions as electronic transport
assignment, time slot management and transport
visibility. TRANSPOREON allows reducing dispatch
and freight costs, while minimizing waiting times
during loading and unloading.
Currently more than 1.000 industry and trading
companies, more than 65,000 carriers and more than
100,000 users from 100 countries are connected via
the TRANSPOREON platforms. The platforms as
well as the customer service are available in 24
languages.
Operating company of the logistics platform
TRANSPOREON is the international
TRANSPOREON Group. Other solutions the group is
offering are the tender platform TICONTRACT and
the retail logistics platform MERCAREON. More than
510 employees are on site throughout Europe, the
U.S.A., Russia and Asia.
Learn more about us at: www.transporeon.com
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 15
Capgemini Consulting
TRANSPOREON
For more information, contact:
Benelux:
Lars Vitters
Tel: +31 6 531 685 63
E-mail: [email protected]
Germany/Switzerland:
Ralph Schneider-Maul
Tel: +49 221 9126 44182
E-mail: [email protected]
UK: Steve Wilson
Tel: +44 870 366 0236
E-mail: [email protected]
Italy:
Via: Lars Vitters
Tel: +31 6 531 685 63
E-mail: [email protected]
Austria:
Ralph Schneider-Maul
Tel: +49 221 9126 44182
E-mail: [email protected]
France:
Gerald Murat
Tel: +33 6 78 90 68 64
E-mail: [email protected]
Nordic Countries:
Michael Eriksson
Tel: +46 702 57 51 95
E-mail: [email protected]
Poland:
Via: Lars Vitters
Tel: +31 6 531 685 63
E-mail: [email protected]
www.capgemini-consulting.com
For more information, contact:
Balkans:
Armin Musija
Tel: + 43 (0) 664 1966 542
E-mail: [email protected]
Benelux/UK:
Michel Haenen
Tel: +31 6 123 95 308
E-mail: [email protected]
Germany/Switzerland and Nordic countries:
Ron Heijman
Tel: + 31 (0) 6100 60 382
E-mail: [email protected]
Italy:
Roberto Ostili
Tel: +39 050 552168
E-mail: [email protected]
Austria:
Armin Musija
Tel: + 43 (0) 664 1966 542
E-mail: [email protected]
France:
Valérie Carreau
Tel: +33 1 39 21 92 15
E-mail: [email protected]
Spain:
Miriam Ribas
Tel: + 34 977 6200 39
E-mail: [email protected]
Poland/Slovakia/Czech:
Mariusz Nowak
Tel: +48 12 631 20 88
E-mail: [email protected]
Romania/Hungary:
Tibor Batki
Tel: + 36 30 495 4616
E-mail: [email protected]
www.transporeon.com
www.transportmarketmonitor.com
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting
