National Weather Service

Mobile/Pensacola

Tropical Storm Nate Briefing

www.weather.gov/MOB

5:30 PM CDT

Friday, October 6, 2017

NWSMobile

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside

the area enclosed by the cone.

Hurricane and Storm Surge

Warning in effect for AL Coast.

Hurricane Warning also in effect

for Stone/George MS.

Tropical Storm Warning,

Hurricane Watch, and Storm

Surge Warning in effect for

western FL Panhandle.

Tropical Storm Warning for all

other inland counties.

Tropical Storm Nate is

becoming better organized and

strengthening.

Nate will move quickly north

into the Gulf of Mexico late

tonight /early Saturday, and is

forecast to strengthen to a

hurricane prior to landfall.

Situation OverviewTropical Storm Nate

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

The probability of

Tropical Storm Force

Winds remains nearly the

same.

Majority of the area has a

6 in 10 to 8 in 10 chance

of seeing tropical storm

force winds.

5 in 10 chance for far

eastern counties.

T.S. Force Wind Speed ProbabilitiesTropical Storm Nate

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Strong T.S. Force Wind Speed Probabilities

Tropical Storm Nate

The probability of Strong

Tropical Storm Force

Winds (58-73mph) have

not significantly changed.

Coastal AL and parts of

inland SE Mississippi now

has a 4 in 10 chance of

experiencing strong

tropical storm force

winds (58-73mph).

2 in 10 to 3 in 10 chance

elsewhere.

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Hurricane Wind Speed ProbabilitiesTropical Storm Nate

The probability of

Hurricane Force Winds

(74mph or greater) has

slightly increased across

coastal AL/parts of inland

SE MS.

Now a 10-15% chance of

hurricane force winds

from Baldwin County

west to Stone/George

MS.

2-5% chance further

inland over rest of the

area.

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

There is a potential for:

High threat area indicates

best potential for hurricane

force winds.

Moderate threat area

shows potential of strong

tropical storm force winds.

Wind Threat / Potential ImpactTropical Storm Nate

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

The most likely time of

arrival of Tropical

Storm Force Winds: Coastal AL/NW FL:

Saturday evening

Further inland: late

Saturday night/daybreak

Sunday.

However, Tropical Storm

Force Winds could

arrive to the coast as

early as Saturday

afternoon.

Time of ArrivalTropical Storm Nate

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Storm Surge Warning

in effect for all of

coastal Alabama and

the western Florida

panhandle

Danger of life-

threatening inundation

from storm surge

somewhere within the

specified area with 36

hours.

Storm Surge Watch / WarningTropical Storm Nate

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Potential for storm surge flooding of 3 to 6 feet, locally 7-8 feet, above normal dry ground in the around Mobile Bay region. Higher totals realized if track of center is closer to coastal AL.

Some areas at greatest threat: US 90 Causeway

Dauphin Island

Ft. Morgan Rd

Coden/Bayou La Batre

Rivers feeding into Mobile Bay

Note: This graphic shows where storm surge inundation could

occur in any one location. It depicts a reasonable worst case

scenario.

Potential Storm Surge FloodingTropical Storm Nate

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Potential for storm

surge flooding of 2

to 4 feet, locally 5-6

feet, above normal

dry ground across

the western Florida

Panhandle. Higher

totals realized if

track of center is

closer to NW FL.

Some areas at

greatest threat:

Barrier islands and

rivers that empty

into the Pensacola

Bay System.

Note: This graphic shows where storm surge inundation could

occur in any one location. It depicts a reasonable worst case

scenario.

Potential Storm Surge FloodingTropical Storm Nate

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

4-6”

6-10”

2-3”

Expected Storm Total RainfallTropical Storm Nate

Storm total rainfall

of 2-6” with locally

higher amounts up

to 8” possible

(Saturday through

Monday).

Flash Flood Watch

in effect for all but

Okaloosa,

Covington, and

Crenshaw counties.

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Threat for isolated

tornadoes will

start to ramp up

during the day

Saturday and last

through midday

Sunday.

Tornado PotentialTropical Storm Nate

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Wind: Tropical storm force winds likely to impact most of the region Saturday night into Sunday.

Given the current intensity forecast, hurricane force winds are possible in a small area around the

center (possibly affecting coastal AL/parts of inland SE MS based on latest track).

Surge: Maximum surge likely late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. (high tide ranges from

around or a little after midnight depending on location). Highest values may be realized if the

center track closer to the area.

Mobile Bay Region/Coastal Baldwin: 3-6’, locally 7-8’ possible, above normally dry ground

Western FL Panhandle: 2-4’, locally 5-6’ possible, above normally dry ground

Rainfall: Rain totals have been slightly increased to 2-5” with locally 8”. Flash Flood Watch in effect

for potential of isolated flash flooding.

Tornadoes: Threat of tornadoes will exist along and east of the center (potentially much of the

area) Saturday through at midday Sunday.

Surf/Rip Currents: Long period swells reaching the area beaches will result in a high rip current

risk and increasing surf heights.

Potential Impact SummaryTropical Storm Nate

10/6/2017 5:45 PM www.weather.gov/MOB

MobileWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Hurricane Warning in effect for coastal Alabama and Stone/George County MS.

Tropical Storm Warning/Hurricane Watch in effect for FL Panhandle.

Tropical Storm Warning for all other inland counties.

Storm Surge Warning in effect for coastal Alabama/western FL Panhandle.

Any further shift east in track brings potentially higher impacts to area, particularly for surge/wind close to the coast.

The storm will be quick moving, with conditions likely improving by Sunday afternoon/Sunday night

SummaryTropical Storm Nate