Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 1 The Disunited States of Europe? Europe United we stand, divided we fall ….. but what are we at present?

Tuesday, 09 August 2005Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA

1

The Disunited States of Europe?

Europe

United we stand, divided we fall …..

but what are we at present?

Racial, religious & territorial

issues in Europe

ECONOMIC &/or POLITICALBelgium: Walloons - FlemishGermany: East-westItaly: North - SouthGreece: MacedoniaGreece/Turkey: CyprusBritain/Spain: GibraltarNew Europe: Olde Europe

ONGOING VIOLENCESpain: Basques

UNEASY TRUCEBalkans: Muslims - Serbs

CEASEFIRE - CESSATIONIreland: Protestants - Catholics

DORMANT or EXTINCTFrance: Bretons - French


3


The Races of Europe

Immigration Problems

Turks - GermanyArabs - France/SpainPakistanis - UKAlbanians etc - Italy


4


EuropeanLanguages


5


Religion

Christianity:

- Protestant

- Catholic

Islam

Jewish Religion

The IronCurtain


7


THE BALKANS

F.Y.R.O.M.


8


CYPRUS


9


CYPRUS

small country, but major problem for Europe; Turkish entry depends on resolution

should Turkey be admitted to EU? Is it "European"?

strategic geographical position

large, but non-extreme Muslim country

large number of Turks in Germany (Gastarbeiter)

entry contentious within & between European states

human rights problems: death penalty etc

Turkey's attitude to its past: Kurdish problem, Armenian massacre - 1915 to 1918

http://www.armenian-genocide.org/genocidefaq.html


10


TURKEY


11


TURKEY


12

The Disunited States of Europe?CYPRUS

Ottoman Turks ruled Cyprus for over three centuries; ceded to Britain in 1878

Independence from Britain achieved August 1960, after four-year military struggle between UK and guerrillas of EOKA (National Organization of Cypriot Fighters) who sought ‘enosis’ (union with Greece) - which was anathema to Turkish community

political leader of liberation movement, Archbishop Makarios - also head of island’s Greek Orthodox Church - returned from exile and elected President December 1959

island’s new constitution was elaborate compromise between British and rival Greek and Turkish communities, between whom considerable distrust remained

as part of deal, British kept two large tracts of land for military purposes, known as ‘Sovereign Base Areas’ and accounting for 5 per cent of island’s total area

deal fell apart in July 1974, when Makarios was deposed by military coup (allegedly backed by military regime in power in Greece)

within days, Turkish troops arrived on northern coast of Cyprus, ‘invited’ by Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktash, to intervene in order to protect Turkish community on island

Greeks failed to respond effectively, not least because of simultaneous collapse of military junta in Athens, besides which Greek-Cypriot-controlled National Guard was insufficiently equipped to combat fully mobilized army

after Turkish army had taken control of northern third of island, ceasefire arranged under UN auspices


13

The Disunited States of Europe? CYPRUS

island partitioned ever since and UN peacekeeping forces maintain truce

in November 1983, Turkish part of island proclaimed itself Kuzey Kibris Turk Cumhuriyeti (‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’, TRNC) - however, formal recognition of self-styled country only granted by Turkey and a few statelets

‘TRNC’ still run by Rauf Denktash - dominant political figure in enclave for almost 30 years - at last two presidential elections - April 1995 and April 2000 - re-elected with comfortable

majorities

for vast majority of international community, legitimate government of Republic of Cyprus (Kiprikai Demokratika) is Greek-Cypriot administration in Nicosia - until February 2003 led for a decade by President Glafkos Clerides - that month, he was deposed at most recent presidential election by Tassos Papadopoulos, candidate of center-right Komma Dimokratika (Democratic Party)

present government is coalition of DIKO, AKEL - Communist Party which has long been single largest force in Greek-Cypriot politics - and smaller KISOS party

principal issue for Greek-Cypriot government remains same; how to normalize relations with ‘TRNC’ and reunify island.

numerous diplomatic initiatives ended in failure - main sticking points are:

- balance and concentration of power within any unified government

- Turkish troop concentrations in north

- return of property relinquished by Greek refugees and since occupied by Turkish settlers

BELGIUM

Walloons

Flemish


BELGIUM - the Walloons (wŏlūnz'),

group of people living in S Belgium who traditionally spoke dialect of French called Walloon, but who today mostly part speak standard French

Walloons, numbering some 3.5 million, reside mostly in provinces of Hainaut, Liège, Namur, Luxembourg, and Walloon Brabant, in contrast to Dutch-speaking Flemings of northern provinces

movement for reviving Walloon literature centered in Liège in the 19th cent.; today the language is considered moribund

since medieval times economic and social background of Walloons has differed radically from that of Flemings, and cleavage became even more pronounced with Industrial Revolution

Walloon part of Belgium contains major mining areas and heavy industries, while Flemings engage mainly in agriculture, manufacturing (particularly textiles), and

shipping

tension between Walloons and Flemings has long been critical political issue; in 1970 plan was approved recognizing cultural autonomy of Belgium's three national communities: Dutch-speaking Flemings of the north, the French speaking Walloons of the south, and bilingual Brussels


GERMANY

•reunification 1990

•massive economic gaps

•OstMark given parity with Dmark

•billions transferred west to east

•special tax on "Wessies"

•not only economic, but cultural gulf


bureaucracy

high social benefits

endemic unemployment

public refusal to give up "acquis"

socialist/capitalist divide still strong ….

ITALY

•industrial - bulk of economy

•many small/medium business

•many family-owned business

•fashion, style, engineering adaptability was trump card

•large black market (27%?)

•serious competitivity problems

•some call for return of lira …

North of Rome

South of Rome

•agricultural - little industry

•earthquake-prone

•Vesuvius!!



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GIBRALTAR

ceded to Britain in perpetuity bythe Treaty of Utrecht, 13 JULY 1713


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BASQUE COUNTRY

many Basques want independence

long-running "terrorist" (or "liberation") movement

considerable autonomy granted by

Central government


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EuropeanLanguages


21


Religion


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European Nation States

The IronCurtain


24



25



26


EU GDP GROWTH - 2005

1,1

2,6

3,6

1,6 1,61,9 2,0

3,84,0

5,05,2

5,5

6,0

0,81,0 1,1 1,2

1,72,0 2,1 2,2 2,3

2,7 2,8 2,9 3,03,3

3,7 3,8 3,9 3,9 4,0

4,4

4,9 4,9

6,0

6,4

7,2

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

% Growth


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EU & EFTA INFLATION - 2004/2005

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

Latv

iaG

reec

eLu

xem

bour

gS

pain

Bel

gium

Hun

gary

Est

onia

Cyp

rus

Italy

Slo

vaki

aIr

elan

dA

ustr

ia

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Den

mar

kLi

thua

nia

Fran

ceN

ethe

rlan

dsN

orw

ayM

alta

Pol

and

Por

tuga

lG

erm

any

Finl

and

Slo

veni

aC

zech

Rep

ublic

Sw

eden

%


28


4,5

4,6

4,7

4,8

4,8

5,0

5,4

5,9

6,0

6,3

6,7

7,3

7,8

8,0

8,3

8,8

9,2

9,5

9,7

9,8

10,5

10,8

11,0

18,0

18,8

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Ireland

Netherlands

United Kingdom

Austria

Luxembourg

Cyprus

Denmark

Hungary

Slovenia

Sweden

Portugal

Malta

Belgium

Italy

Czech Republic

Finland

Estonia

Germany

France

Latvia

Greece

Lithuania

Spain

Slovakia

Poland


29


EU PUBLIC BALANCE ACCOUNTS - 2004Ja

pan

Uni

ted

Stat

es

Can

ada

Cro

atia Tu

rkey

Icel

and Bul

garia

Nor

way

Euro

-zon

e

Euro

-zon

e (1

2 co

untr

ies)

EU (1

5 co

untr

ies)

EU (2

5 co

untr

ies)

Gre

ece M

alta

Pola

nd

Hun

gary

Cyp

rus

Fran

ce

Ger

man

y

Slov

akia

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Cze

ch R

epub

lic Italy

Port

ugal

Lith

uani

a

Net

herla

nds

Slov

enia

Aus

tria

Luxe

mbo

urg

Latv

ia

Spai

n

Bel

gium Ire

land

Swed

en

Esto

nia

Finl

and

Den

mar

k

Rom

ania

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%


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The Disunited States of Europe?EU Member State World

1 Luxembourg 32 Estonia 43 Republic of Ireland 54 United Kingdom 75 Denmark 86 Sweden 147 Finland 158 Netherlands 179 Germany 1810 Austria 1911 Belgium 21= Cyprus =13 Lithuania 2314 Italy 2615 Latvia 2816 Malta 2917 Spain 3118 Czech Republic 3319 Hungary 3520 Slovakia 3621 Portugal 3722 Poland 4123 France 4424 Slovenia 4525 Greece 59

"EC

ON

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Jo

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ing

50

va

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ble

s

EU Member State WORLD

1 Sweden 2

2 Netherlands 5

3 Belgium 6

4 Republic of Ireland 10

5 United Kingdom 12

6 Finland 13

7 Austria 14

8 Luxembourg 15

9 France 16

10 Denmark 17

11 Germany 19

12 Spain 20

13 Italy 21

14 Greece 24

15 Portugal 26

16 Slovenia 27

17 Cyprus 30

18 Malta 31

19 Czech Republic 32

20 Estonia 36

21 Poland 37

22 Hungary 38

23 Lithuania 41

24 Slovakia 42

25 Latvia 50

U.N

. "H

UM

AN

DE

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PM

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: p

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)


31


Surveys

World EU Used

1 1 Finland 8 0.4

2 2 Denmark 8 0.3

5 3 Sweden 10 0.2

7 4 Luxembourg 5 0.5

7 4 Netherlands 9 0.3

10 6 United Kingdom 11 0.5

15 7 Austria 8 0.5

18 8 Germany 10 1.0

20 9 Belgium 8 0.9

20 9 Spain 10 1.0

23 11 Ireland 8 0.9

25 12 France 10 0.9

25 12 Portugal 9 1.0

27 14 Slovenia 9 1.4

29 15 Estonia 8 0.6

31 16 Italy 11 1.1

33 17 Hungary 11 0.5

36 18 Lithuania 7 1.9

44 19 Greece 8 0.7

45 20 Poland 11 1.1

52 21 Czech Republic 10 0.8

52 21 Latvia 4 0.2

52 21 Slovak Republic 8 0.6

Standard Deviation

CORRUPTION INDEX

Country RANK

Rank State Years

1 Andorra 83,49

2 San Marino 81,43

3 Guernsey 80,04

4 Switzerland 79,99

5 Sweden 79,97

6 Italy 79,40

7 Gibraltar 79,38

8 France 79,28

9 Monaco 79,27

10 Liechtenstein 79,25

11 Spain 79,23

12 Norway 79,09

13 Jersey 78,93

14 Faroe Islands 78,90

15 Greece 78,89

16 Netherlands 78,74

17 Malta 78,43

18 Germany 78,42

19 Belgium 78,29

20 Austria 78,17

21 United Kingdom 78,16

22 Man, Isle of 77,98

23 Finland 77,92

24 Luxembourg 77,66

25 Ireland 77,35

EU LIFE EXPECTANCY


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EUROLAND (12) NOT IN EUROLAND (13)

Austria Cyprus

Belgium Czech Republic

Finland Denmark

France Estonia

Germany Hungary

Greece Latvia

Italy Lithuania

Luxembourg Malta

Netherlands Poland

Portugal Slovakia

Republic of Ireland Slovenia

Spain Sweden

United Kingdom


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The CAP & the Budget

Money, money, money!!!!

The EU BUDGET - CONTRIBUTORS IN 2004


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The Common Agricultural Policy

introduced in 1960 - aim to provide a reasonable standard of living for farmers and reasonably-priced food for all

intention also (especially in France) to maintain traditional pattern of farming - avoid massive drift away from country to cities

facilitated free movement of farming products within the EU

after lean war years, concern to ensure reliable food supply and self-sufficiency

this aim succeeded; in fact, there is now oversupply

oversupply has led in past to so-called "butter-mountains" and food dumping

A Success?


36


The Common Agricultural Policy

medium and larger farms are paid not to produce; smaller ones rely on subsidies

some rich farmers are paid to leave their fields fallow (unused)

subsidies do not go to all farmers; mainly to dairy farming

the CAP accounts for 42% of the EU budget, limiting investment in other areas

it distorts world trade in agriculture; developing countries are particularly penalised; they can't penetrate the EU

cost of subsidizing poor farmers in new EU countries will put unbearable strains on budget; reform is essential

reform will be strongly resisted by current beneficiaries

Britain and France in particular have immovable positions

A Failure?


37


The British & French positions on agriculture

Britain said it will veto any cut in the 4.4bn euro (£3bn) rebate unless farm subsidies are overhauled, a stance which puts it at loggerheads with France.

French President Jacques Chirac refused to discuss any cut in farm subsidies and says the rebate should "under no circumstances be linked to a reform of farm expenditure."

From the EU summit meeting in June, 2005

Where the money goes --->


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The Subsidization of Farming in the World

Country % support

New Zealand 5

EU 34

N America 20

Japan 60

AGRICULTURE

limits this places on African exports to rich countries now a hot, political topic


39



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Symptomatic of EU budgetary problems … The British rebate

French President Jacques Chirac defends

French EU farming subsidies against the British, wielding their

famous rebate …

"The problem is the imbalance of the budget: 40% of the budget goes to meet the needs of 5% of the population and 2% of European jobs." Tony Blair, July 2005

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-1643811,00.html



EAST EUROPE

fears Russiapro-USA - anglophile

low taxationlots to catch up

businessEU money

development

The EuroTango SPAINPORTUGAL

EU cashbusiness

rapid developmentSouth American

leanings

HOLLAND

usually the good guysbusiness-oriented

fed upimmigration

paying too muchtaken for granted

GERMANY

industrial powerhousemajor exporterunemployment

East-West dividepolitical turmoilover-regulated

high taxless anti-US

FRANCE

anti-USA, statistpowerful lobbies

(farmers, civil servants)high taxationcultural fears

"social model"France's place in world

insular tendancy

ITALY

style, chicsmall businesses

big North/South dividestruggling to compete

call for lira returndodgy politics

BALTICS

dynamic, go-aheadambitious

anti-regulationhigh potential

fear Russia

"Olde Europe"

IRELAND

incoming investmentfavourable

business climategrab the money while it lasts …

UK

common marketclose to USA

"liberal" economyanti-regulationanti-Brusselslower taxation

SCANDINAVIA

detached,calmuncorruptible

business-orientedhigh taxation

common market


42


A View from the USA Robert J Samuelson, "Washington Post" - June 15th, 2005

Europe is slowly going bust - not just because it's overshadowed by Asia and USA

Europe's birthrates have dropped well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children for each woman of childbearing age

for Western Europe as a whole, rate is 1.5 - it's 1.4 in Germany and 1.3 in Italy

already about 17% of the population is 65 and older

by 2030 that would be 25%, and by 2050 almost 33%

How can European economies support so many old people?


43


Europe's economy already weakening - in 1970s annual growth for the Euroland countries averaged almost 3%; from 2001 to 2004 the annual average was 1.2 percent

in 1974 those countries had unemployment of 2.4 percent; in 2004 the rate was 8.9%

Western Europeans feel their way of life threatened.

one solution to low birthrates is higher immigration

but many Europeans don't like the immigrants they have and don't want more

one way to revive growth would be to reduce social benefits, taxes and regulations

but that would imperil Europe's "social model," which supposedly blends capitalism's efficiency and socialism's compassion

The European Economy ….


44


What about the USA, as reported by OECD?

unemployment: with high unemployment benefits, almost half of Western Europe's jobless out of work a year or more; U.S. figure about 12 percent

early retirement: in 2003 about 60 percent of Americans aged 55 to 64 had jobs. comparable figures for France, Italy and Germany were 37%, 30% and 39%

Europeans like early retirement, high jobless benefits and long vacations

sources of this benevolence (high taxes, stiff regulations) weaken economy - with ageing populations, contradictions will only grow

some research suggests that high old-age benefits partly explain low birthrates - with the state paying for old age, who needs children as caregivers?

high taxes may also deter couples from assuming added costs of children

other countries are also aging and face problems similar to Europe's, but the ageing is more pronounced in Europe and a few other nations (e.g. Japan), precisely because birthrates are so low

U.S. birthrate, for example, is 2.1; even removing births to Hispanic Americans, it's about 1.9


45


What about the USA, as reported by OECD?

Europeans could do something about their predicament - but mostly they're not

some countries (Britain, Ireland, the Netherlands) have acted, and there are differences between East and West Europe

But in general Europe is immobilized by its problems

classic dilemma of democracy - too many people benefit from status quo to change it; but status quo isn't sustainable

status quo in France called "les acquis" (e.g. train drivers, school & university teachers)

even modest efforts in France and Germany to curb social benefits have triggered backlashes and government cave-ins

many Europeans - maybe most - live in a state of delusion: believing things should continue as before; they see almost any change as menacing

All this bad for Europe - and the United States: a weak European economy is one reason the world

economy is shaky and so dependent on American growth


46


Europe is preoccupied with divisions at home, but is looking to the past

Europe not strong American ally, not only because it disagrees with some U.S. policies but also because it doesn't want to make the commitments required

unwilling to address their genuine problems, Europeans become more reflexively critical of America

this gives the impression that they're active on the world stage, even as they're quietly acquiescing in their own decline

French fear of cultural swamping adds to the mixture as does "Olde Europe's" search for a role on world stage

France traditionally anti-American (Anglo-Saxon): de Gaulle prevented UK entry into EU and once withdrew from NATO and find alternative to it

France's schizophrenia towards UK and USA ….

Iraq …..

Documents

Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 1 The Disunited States of Europe? Europe United we stand, divided we fall ….. but what are we at present?