Update on CORDEXUpdate on CORDEXKey issues for discussion Key issues for discussion

Filippo GiorgiFilippo Giorgi

Abdus Salam ICTPAbdus Salam ICTP

CORDEX-SAT meeting, ICTP 16-17 May, 2014CORDEX-SAT meeting, ICTP 16-17 May, 2014

COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperimentCORDEX

• Update on management• Super-brief update on general

CORDEx progress (detailed ones on regional efforts will be presented later in the meeting)

• Brief summary of the ICRC-2013• Issues emerging from current

experience and discussions

CORDEX Management

• The original Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling (TFRCD) was terminated after successfully ending its mandate

• CORDEX is now a project within the newly formed Working Group on Regional Climate (WGRC)

• Science Advisory Team (SAT) was formed

CORDEX SAT• F. Giorgi (Co-Chair, to be renewed)• W. Gutowski (Co-Chair)• I. Anguelovski (Spain) ?• R. Krishnan (India)• H.S. Kang (Korea)• C. Lennard (S. Africa)• G. Nikulin (Sweden)• S. Solman (Argentina)• T. Stephenson (Caribbean)• F. Tangang (Malaysia)• B. Timbal (Australia)

CORDEX Phase I experiment design CORDEX Phase I experiment design

Model Evaluation Model Evaluation FrameworkFramework

Climate ProjectionClimate ProjectionFrameworkFramework

ERA-Interim LBC ERA-Interim LBC 1989-20071989-2007

Multiple AOGCMsMultiple AOGCMs

RCP4.5, RCP8.5RCP4.5, RCP8.51951-2100 or 1980-20501951-2100 or 1980-2050

Decadal predictionsDecadal predictions1980-2010, 1990-2000, 2005-20351980-2010, 1990-2000, 2005-2035

Multiple regions Multiple regions (Initial focus on Africa)(Initial focus on Africa)50 km grid spacing50 km grid spacing

Regional AnalysisRegional AnalysisRegional DatabanksRegional Databanks

AMIPAMIPlikelike

CMIPCMIPlikelike

CORDEX: Recent Progress• Numerous CORDEX presentations at major

meetings– EGU RCM session largest in the CL area– Regional modeling session at AGU

• Major pan-CORDEX conference ICRC-CORDEX 2013 (See next slide)

• Many model communities completing ensembles of simulations over various domains

• Papers appearing with explicit use of CORDEX framework (JC, CD, JGR, CR, CC etc.)

The Conference will bring together the international community of regional climate The Conference will bring together the international community of regional climate scientists to present and discuss results from WCRP regional climate studies, with scientists to present and discuss results from WCRP regional climate studies, with a particular emphasis on the CORDEX initiative.a particular emphasis on the CORDEX initiative.

4 Nov: High-Level Session4 Nov: High-Level Session• High-Level Session: key findings from the IPCC AR5 WGI: The Physical High-Level Session: key findings from the IPCC AR5 WGI: The Physical Science BasisScience Basis• Stakeholder Dialogue: regional climate information for decision-makersStakeholder Dialogue: regional climate information for decision-makers

5-7 Nov: Science Segment5-7 Nov: Science Segment• Key results from Regional Climate Research and Phase I of the CORDEX Key results from Regional Climate Research and Phase I of the CORDEX projectproject

ICRC-CORDEX 2013 conference• Venue and time: Brussels, 4-7 November 2013• Two segments

– Day 1: High level IPCC segment– Day 2-4: Scientific conference

• Expected attendance– Over 500 registrations– ~470 abstracts submitted

• Plenary + Poster sessions+ side focused meetings– CORDEX progress/achievements– Issues in dynamical and statistical downscaling– Application to IAV work– Future developments/directions

• Co-sponsorship by the EU Com. and other agencies

Emerging issues for discussion

• Need for a mechanism for better coordination/homogeneization across activities in the different CORDEX domains and more generally across the wider CORDEX community – The creation of a CORDEX International Project

Office (CIPO) will substantially help in this regard– Three good applications for the CIPO have been

submitted and will be evaluated

Emerging issues for discussion• Data management and distribution

– See Grigory’s presentation/discussion– Interaction with the end-user community

• Need of a clear protocol for the identification and “approval” of CORDEX domains– New domains are being proposed based on

different “regional” needs: MENA, SE Asia– Important issue as the target horizontal resolution

increases

Emerging issues for discussion

• Better integration of statistical downscaling – See Bertrand’s presentation and discussion

• Possible increased focus on regionally-specific forcings– Effects of land-use change; collaboration with the

LUCID project– Effects of aerosols– Regional attribution

Emerging issues for discussion• Transition to CORDEX Phase II• Increase of “base” resolution: 50 km 25 km• Development of regional pilot “flagship” studies

– High resolution (non-hydrostatic, cloud resolving?)– Process based analysis– Added value– Use of multiple downscaling techniques– Earth system coupling– Regional forcings (land-use, aerosols)– Comprehensive comparison with observations– End-to-end, climate-to-end user, studies– Production of actionable information

Emerging issues for discussion

• Strong need of funding in support of CORDEX research.

• RCMs are currently mostly seen as “tools” to produce ouput in support of climate services, but substantial model development is needed, especially when going to non-hydrostatic resolutions.– Need of lobbying for model development projects !!!

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

Flagship pilot studies• Motivation: Focused studies to address key questions about the

“value” of the CORDEX approach• What are the questions?

– High resolution (non-hydrostatic, cloud resolving)– Process based analysis– Added value– Use of multiple downscaling techniques– Earth system coupling– Regional forcings (landuse, aerosols)– Comprehensive comparison with observations– End-to-end, climate-to-end user, studies– Production of “actionable” information

Key issue: How do we choose the flagship studies

• A decision protocol will be needed• Some criteria will be needed

– Based on physical science key issues/hotspots– Based on VIA key issues/hotspots– Based on availability of high quality,

comprehensive (multi-discipline) data, observation campaigns etc.

– Based on interactions with other WCRP programs (e.g. GEWEX)

– Based on availability of (or potential for) funding