W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L

Use of EDWG Data by the LTPT

WECC StaffOctober 9, 2015

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Presentation Items

• Revisit the Long Term Planning Tool (LTPT)• EDWG data and how it is used in by the LTPT• Tool Enhancements• Remaining work

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What is the LTPT

The Long Term Planning Tool:• Is a capital expansion tool used to study

possible energy futures.• Meant to inform decision makers of potential

electrical infrastructure investment that may be necessary to meet future energy needs.

• Determine where the future energy need bookends are.

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10-Year & 20-Year Planning Comparison

Attribute 10-Year Studies 20-Year Studies

Tool Production Cost Model Capital Expansion Model

Objective Minimization Production Cost Capital Cost

Focus Capacity additions and specific projects, planned and in progress

Understanding potential “energy futures” and decisions needed to achieve those futures

Model decides to Dispatch Generation Build Gen and Transmission

Load From balancing authorities w/ stakeholder adjustment

From balancing authorities w/ stakeholder adjustment

Resources Stakeholder specific Stakeholder specific and LTPT optimized

Transmission Stakeholder specific Stakeholder specific and LTPT optimized

Time Granularity Hourly / Sub-hourly Annual / Seasonal Load Durations

Interdependence Starting point of 20-Year Informs 10-Year

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LTPT Process Workflow

Perform Modeling

No

Yes

Define Scenarios to be examined in narrative

Parameterize Scenarios / Sensitivities

Does Parameterization affect

Scenario narrative?

Are results reasonable?

No Yes Select ‘no regrets’ investments; decide other

recommendations

Compare Scenario results based on pre-determined Metrics

Are sensitivities of Scenarios

required?

Yes

No

Define Metrics to be used to evaluate

Scenario/Sensitivity results

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How is the EDWG Data Used by the LTPT?

• EDWG Risk Class Category geospatial data is used to develop potential new transmission energy corridors.

• Environmental impact cost surfaces are built from the EDWG geospatial data.

• Potential new transmission corridors are routed (bent) to connect network model hubs while minimizing environmental impact.

• The LTPT is not a tool used by WECC for siting purposes, but rather a tool used to develop modeling proxies to study future transmission needs!

• Staying in the fairway.• Avoiding hazards.• Minimizing strokes.

Traversing the geospatial landscape

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Overlay EDWG and Transmission Candidate Cooridors

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• Build cost surfaces• Bend corridor

routing to minimize environmental impact.

Optimize Corridors

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Transmission Models and Assumptions

• Start with TEPPC 2024 Power Flow Model• Delineate load and generation hubs.• Perform Network Reduction, preserving interface and CCTA

transmission lines.• Define aggregation zones delineated by WECC Paths.• Define list of monitored lines based on aggregation zones.• Define transmission technology types and characteristics.• Define list of candidate corridors based on tiered rules.• Optimize corridor routing

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Economic Models and Assumptions• Fuel Prices

– Henry Hub per EIA Annual Energy Outlook (converted to 2014 dollars)

– Differentials by state– Progress multipliers per E3 Capital Cost

Tool/Report• Resource Types & Costs

– Capital Cost: E3 Capital Cost Tool (“E3 Tool”), TEPPC approved

– Future types & Progress multipliers - 2027 Vintage per E3 Tool

– Simplified LCOE Model - E3 Tool• Policy

– CO2 Price: $37.11/MT• Per stakeholder input – Metric Definition Task

Force (MDTF)

– No PTC, Solar ITC reduced to 10%• Per E3 forecast of federal policy

– Coal constraints per stakeholder inputEIA – U.S. Energy Information AdministrationAEO – Annual Energy OutlookDG – Distributed GenerationRPS – Renewable Portfolio StandardNREL – National Renewable Energy Laboratory

• Transmission Costso Per TEPPC Capital Cost Update: B&V

analysis/report and tool, with stakeholder review/approval

o Includes Transmission and Substation Costs

o Cost Factors Include: EquipmentTerrain ROW AFUDC Breakers Transformers Voltage Compensation

o LCOE per E3 “levelization calculation”(E3 Captial Cost Tool)

PTC – Production Tax CreditITC – Investment Tax Credit

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Focus on Inter-regional needs

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Tool Enhancements

• Introduction of Corridor Library• Parameterized Goals• Parameterized Constraints• Co-optimization across seasonal and load level

conditions• Improved reduced network model• New platform

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Remaining Work

• Complete reference case.• Configure scenario and study request cases.• Determine new modeling proxies (e.g.,

offshore wind)• Run studies• Q1 - 2016