Upload
ozzie
View
43
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
USGS & WFRC Science Directions. Ecosystems Climate change Water availability Energy Invasive species Wildlife health and disease Threatened and endangered species. The Pacific Northwest Climate Change Collaboration (C 3 ). C 3. 2. On the Landscape: CSCs & LCCs. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
USGS & WFRC Science Directions
• Ecosystems• Climate change• Water availability• Energy• Invasive species• Wildlife health and disease• Threatened and
endangered species
2
CC33
The Pacific Northwest Climate Change Collaboration (C3)
3
Climate Science Centers (CSCs) Delivering Fundamental Climate-Impact Science to
Resource Managers on a Regional Basis
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)On-the-Ground Applied Science and Adaptive
Management
National Climate Change and Wildlife Center at USGS HQ & Eight regional Climate Science Centers (CSCs)
Provide scientific information, tools and techniques for land, water, wildlife and cultural resource managers to adapt to climate and ecologically-driven responses at regional-to-local scales.
Deliver basic climate-change-impact science to Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
Prioritize fundamental science, data and decision-support activities to meet the needs of the LCCs.
Work with the LCCs to develop adaptive management and other decision-support tools for managers.
Twenty-One Nationwide, functioning within a specific landscape as part of a national and international network
Focus on-the-ground strategic conservation & adaptive management efforts at the landscape level.
Management-science partnerships that inform integrated resource-management
Link science and conservation delivery
LCCs are cooperatives, formed and directed by land, water, wildlife and cultural resource managers and other stakeholders.
Steering committees will include representatives from governmental entities (federal, state, tribal and local), as well as non-governmental organizations.
On the Landscape: CSCs & LCCs
Responding to Climate Variability and Change:Trans-boundary Assessment & Services in the CRB
Objective
Develop and test a practical, integrated approach
to organizing and collecting climate change
information and science to support climate
related decision making at both regional and
local scales
Decision Analysis: What is it?
• A set of tools for structuring and analyzing complex decision problems
• An approach and process for making logical, reproducible, and defensible decisions in the face of:– Technical complexity
– Uncertainty
– Multiple, competing objectives
• A multi-disciplinary field of study drawing from statistics, economics, operations research, management science, psychology…
Numerous structured decision making “tools” exist
Examples in use within the USGS include:
– Joint Fact Finding (JFF)
– Stakeholder Analysis (SA)
– Decision Support Systems (DSS)
– Adaptive Management
DA has similarities with all these approaches, but some key differences– More quantitative than JFF
– More decision-focused than SA
– More process- focused than DSS
– More comprehensive than AM
Decision Analysis at the USGS
DA provides (at least) 3 key benefits
– Multi-discipline integration: Acts as an integrating tool, to help bring together the varied research and researchers within the climate change community (and the broader technical community)
– Information value: Helps to locate and/or highlight areas where significant gaps in data or knowledge limit understanding of the full nature of the issue being considered
– Link to end-users: Provides a tangible and explicit link between science and the needs of customers and end-users of the science and data.
aka Research to Operations (R2O) = Integrated Approach to Global Climate Change
WFRC, Columbia River Research LaboratoryNOAA – NCDC, Western Region Climate Services
Natural Resources
Social
Economic Demands
Tribal Culture
PopulationGrowth
Physical Biological
Recreation
Agriculture
Partners:•Federal, State, and Local Agencies•Universities•Tribes•Great Northern LCC, CSCs
Stakeholders:•Agriculture, Landowners, Local Recreation•Tribes: Yakama, Colville, Umatilla•Local Officials
Habitat Physical Population Community
Decision Support: Linking Models to Predict Climate Change Effects
Social & Economic Analyses
Bioenergetics
•Idaho Falls, ID (USGS, Science Apps., Climate Change) - $ •Tacoma, WA (USGS Water Resources) - Physical models•Yakima, WA (BOR) - Water management (RiverWare)•CRRL - Habitat criteria, GIS, Decision Support Tools•CRRL – Bioenergetics•CRRL – Fish population analyses•Ft Collins, CO (USGS) — Sociologist & Economist
Habitat AquaticPhysical Population Community
Bioenergetics
Linking Models to Predict Climate Change Effectsin the Yakima River Basin
Socioeconomic analyses
Change Scenarios
Early2020-2030
Base1988 -2006
Mid20402050
WatershedModel
RiverWare
TemperatureModel
HydrodynamicModel
GISModelingHabitat maps
Habitat DSS
Bioenergetics Model (Growth)
Salmon Survival Model(Population)
Interactions(Community)
SocioeconomicAnalyses
Linking Physical, Biological, Social & Economic
• Jan. 2010 – Methow CC Team• ~20 researchers/managers
• March 16-18, 2010 • DA Stakeholders Workshop• Developed Conceptual Model for the Methow
• Oct 2010• data compiled, modeling approach defined
• February 2011 •DA Stakeholders
Pilot project: Methow River Basin
Columbia Basin R2O Workgroup[20+ Fed (US & Canada), State, Tribal & NGOs]
Why is R2O Working?
•Strong Multi-Disciplinary Approach
•Integrates Research at International, Regional, & Local levels
•Collaborative Research with Multiple Local Agencies
•High Stakeholder Involvement•Stakeholders’ Workshops•Online Decision Support Tools
•Decision Analysis• Conceptual Models
Why USGS?• Federal mission, experience/expertise,
credibility, and multidisciplinary capability
• Significant NW presence—5 science centers, 3 Coop units, 2 Geology laboratories
• Expertise in biologic, cartographic/geographic, geologic, and hydrologic sciences
• Decades of scientific studies in the Basin, e.g., stream-gauging stations, salmonid research
Next Steps
•Continue on-the-ground science in the Methow
•Cross-Case comparison of studies in Columbia River Basin
•Select additional sites for monitoring
•Develop long-term anchor location
•Long-Term monitoring, paired with answering specific questions