Washington Area Commercial Real Estate Market Update: Second Quarter 2015

Washington area commercial real estate MARKET UPDATE

a cohnreznick llP reportSecond Quarter 2015

iiCOHNREZNICK WASHINGTON AREA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE jULy 2015

TAblE of ConTEnTSexecutive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

office . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

aPartments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

condominiums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

retail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22

observations on the continuing sustainability of multifamily . . . . . . .25

1COHNREZNICK WASHINGTON AREA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE jULy 2015

ExECUTivE SUMMARy

ExECUTivE SUMMARy

1

the Washington metro area has emerged relatively intact from several years of weak economic performance and is again showing signs of growth . the region posted a net gain of 61,600 jobs over the 12 months ending april 2015, its largest month-over-year employment increase in more than four years . this strong job growth is due in no small part to the fact that after several years of reductions, both federal employment and procurement are again on the rise . We expect the robust job growth trend to continue through the rest of the year and beyond .

The Washington office market is beginning to show small but positive improvements in early 2015 . net absorption is positive and rents are up, albeit modestly . investment activity is strong with high volume and record prices, and the demand for quality space is fueling leasing activity . The office market will continue adjusting to the new reality of lower aggregate demand as consolidations, shorter lease terms, and shadow space remain prevalent in the near term .

despite a large pipeline, the regional apartment market continues to be robust . annual absorption continues to break records and vacancy remains below national levels . however, rent growth has been tepid, at best, in this highly competitive environment . moderate rent declines are expected in 2015, but as the regional job market continues to grow and as the pipeline slowly declines rents will begin to recover to long-term average growth by 2018 .

the region posted a net gain of 61,600 jobs over the 12 months ending april 2015, its largest month-over-year employment increase in more than four years .

2COHNREZNICK WASHINGTON AREA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE JULy 2015

ExECUTivE SUMMARya shortage of condo product still persists in the Washington metro area . as a consequence, condo sales activity has slowed . there is evidence that prices for new condos are rising metro-wide, albeit at a slower pace . sales activity is expected to see some gains as well, thanks to moderate conversion and switch activity . recent local job growth in sectors with incomes that support the purchase of new condo units bode well for the market in the near term .

the Washington metro area retail market continues to improve on a steady, if modest, track . vacancy rates continue to decline and rents have been rising steadily since 2010 . retail real estate in the region avoided disaster during the recession and the lackluster recovery that followed — remarkable considering the pressures of slow job growth, stagnant wages, and booming online merchandising . development activity highlights optimism among developers and their capital partners for retail centers to thrive throughout the region .

the housing market in the Washington metropolitan area has shifted from rapid recovery to a more stable phase . Price growth stalled (year-over-year average sales price declined 0 .4% .) even as sales activity rose to its highest level since the downturn, and time-on-market has been below the long-term average . the anticipated interest rate hike by the federal reserve before the end of 2015 may also further spur sales activity as potential buyers act to take advantage of favorable mortgage rates while they are still at historical lows .

in summary, the Washington area’s commercial real estate markets are showing consistent, if modest, improvements in first half of 2015. Demand remains strong in the apartment and retail markets. The condominium market is poised for healthy activity after a supply-constrained period . the single-family housing market is expected to see moderate price and volume growth, especially as the national and regional economy gain more traction. The Class A office market will benefit from tenant movements toward transit-oriented, high-quality buildings .


NATIONAL ECONOMYEconomic performance in the second quarter of 2015 was mixed. Despite robust job growth, the economy contracted slightly, with real GDP at first quarter declining by 0.2%. This weakness was mainly due to short-term factors, such as the harsh winter, and most major indicators remain positive at the mid-point of 2015. Given these indicators, we believe that real GDP growth will rebound in the second quarter and through the balance of the year. Year-over-year job growth continues to be strong and the unemployment rate continues to edge down.

Some ongoing concerns remain: inflation lingers below the Federal Reserve’s target rate; wages continue to be relatively stagnant; and the number of chronically unemployed people – those who have given up looking for work – remain significant. Depending on how quickly or slowly these measures improve will likely impact the Fed’s decision on when to increase the federal funds rate .

despite these concerns, the national economy experienced an increase of 3 .1 million new payroll jobs (not seasonally adjusted) during the 12 months ending april 2015, with the private sector accounting for the overwhelming majority of that growth . seasonally-adjusted job growth from January to april 2015 averaged approximately 193,000 jobs per month .

meanwhile, the public sector has added jobs for 11 consecutive months after shedding jobs during the previous 46 months (month-over-year) . While nearly all of this growth was at the state and local government level, the federal government appears to have stopped cutting jobs: after 47 consecutive months of declines (month-over-year), federal employment actually increased in each month between february and april of 2014 .

EConoMy

We believe that real gdP growth will rebound in the second quarter and through the balance of the year . year-over-year job growth continues to be strong and the unemployment rate continues to edge down .


EConoMyduring the 12-month period ending april 2015, the top four sectors in job gains were Professional/business services, education/health services, leisure/hospitality, and retail trade . these four sectors added about 2 .0 million new jobs, accounting for 65% of net new employment . Job gains were positive across all major super sectors and eight of the 13 sectors added at least 149,000 payroll jobs over the year .

the unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) declined to 5 .4% as of april 2015, down from 6 .2% one year earlier . this decline occurred despite the labor force increasing 1 .1% during the same period . in general, we anticipate that the unemployment rate will gradually edge down over the balance of 2015 as hiring accelerates and uncertainty dissipates .

a chronic area of concern regarding the national economy is the national average hourly wage . in april 2015 the average hourly wage rose 2.3% from one year prior. By comparison, data available from March 2007 – before the Great Recession – show that the average hourly wage increased by 3.0% or more during each month compared with the same month one year prior .

The final estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2015 came in at -0 .2% . the decline stemmed from slowing growth in personal consumption expenditures, lower nonresidential fixed investment, decreased state and local government spending, and a drop in net exports . according to the most recent report from the federal reserve bank of Philadelphia’s survey of Professional forecasters, real gdP growth is forecasted to be 2 .5% in the second quarter of 2015, 3 .1% in the third quarter, and 2 .9% in the fourth quarter, for an overall growth rate of 2 .4% in 2015 . looking further ahead, real gdP is predicted to average 2 .8% in 2016, 2 .8% in 2017, and 2 .5% in 2018 .

We expect that the national economic conditions will show continued improvement through the latter portion of 2015 . GDP should rebound from a weak first quarter, payrolls are edging higher, and the unemployment rate continues to decline . there is still some slack in the economy, though, particularly in terms of the large number of underemployed workers and slow wage growth .

Specifically, we believe the economic outlook is as follows: • real gdP growth: 2 .5% in 2015 .• Payroll jobs: 2.6 million added in 2015; similar to last

year’s total .• housing: Price appreciation around 3% to 5% in 2015 .• unemployment rate: 5 .2% to 5 .6% in 2015 .


EConoMy

REGIONAL ECONOMYthe Washington metro area has emerged relatively intact from several years of weak economic performance and is again showing signs of growth . the region posted a net gain of 61,600 jobs over the 12 months ending april 2015, representing its largest month-over-year employment increase in more than four years . this strong job growth is due in no small part to the fact that after several years of reductions, federal employment and procurement are again on the rise . over the next 12 months, additional federal hiring is expected in several departments, including defense, health and human services, and homeland security, though this will be at least partially offset by workforce reductions in other agencies such as treasury . We expect the robust job growth trend to continue through the rest of the year and beyond . See Figure 1.

over the past year, the top four sectors for job growth in the Washington metro area have been Professional/business services, education/health, state/local Government, and Retail/Trade; these sectors gained 51,000 jobs over the 12 months ending april 2015 . the Professional/business services sector has rebounded from net job losses in 2014 to lead the metro in job gains over the first four months of 2015. This is significant for the regional economy because Professional/business services sector jobs tend to have higher-than-average wages and generate demand for office space. Three sectors lost jobs over the past year – Information, Manufacturing, and Financial Activities – but none of these sectors lost more than 1,400 jobs . See Figure 2.

the region’s unemployment rate has declined steadily from its post-recession peak of 7 .1% and its april 2014 level of 4 .7% percent to just 4 .3% in april 2015 . this compares favorably with the national (seasonally adjusted) rate of 5 .4% in april 2015 . We expect the Washington metro area’s unemployment rate to hover around 5% for the remainder of 2015, as new jobs are created concurrently with labor force growth .

-6,000 -2,000 2,000 6,000 10,000 14,000 18,000

ManufacturingInformation

Financial ActivitiesWholesale Trade

Other ServicesFederal Government

Transportation/UtilitiesConstruction/Mining

Leisure/HospitalityRetail Trade

State and Local GovernmentEducation/Health

Professional/Business Services

J O B C H A N G E

+69,200

-3,600

PAYROLL JOB GROWTHWashington Metro Area |12 Months Ending April 2015Figure 2

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; July 2015.

61.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

LA Basin NY SF Bay DFW Atl South FL Hou Wash Chi Phx Bos Denver

THO

USA

ND

S O

F N

EW

PA

YR

OLL

JO

BS

PAYROLL JOB GROWTHSelected Metro Areas | 12 Months Ending April 2015Figure 1



EConoMygross regional Product (grP) for the Washington metro area is expected to reach $501.7 billion in 2015 – a 5.5% increase from the estimated $475 .5 billion in 2014 . While the federal government remains the largest contributor to the Washington area economy, its share of spending is shrinking . federal government spending currently accounts for approximately 35% of grP . by 2018, we expect this share to be reduced to 29%, as private sector economic growth will accelerate while Federal spending will remain relatively flat.

With the weak growth of 2013 and 2014 in the past, the Washington metro area is poised for another expansion cycle . We expect job growth in the region to ramp up to about 36,000 in 2015, 49,000 in 2016, and then peak at about 58,000 net new jobs in 2017 . this expansion cycle will be driven by the region’s private sector, generating demand for housing and commercial space .


EConoMy

PAYROLL JOB GROWTHUnited States | Year-Over-Year

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; July 2015.%

OF

TOTA

LNote: Data are not seasonally adjusted.

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan.

13

Ma

r. 13

Ma

y. 1

3

Jul.

13

Sep

. 13

Nov

. 13

Jan.

14

Ma

r. 14

Ma

y. 1

4

Jul.

14

Sep

. 14

Nov

. 14

Jan.

15

Ma

r. 15

Private Sector Public Sector

Payroll Job groWthunited states | year-over-year

THO

USA

ND

S O

F N

EW

PA

YR

OLL

JO

BS

-50

0

50

100

150

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

PAYROLL JOB GROWTHWashington Metro Area


5-Year Projected Average = 47,300/Year

Payroll Job groWthWashington metro area

-0.2%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Q107

Q307

Q108

Q308

Q109

Q309

Q110

Q310

Q111

Q311

Q112

Q312

Q113

Q313

Q114

Q314

Q115A

NN

UA

L G

DP

CH

AN

GE

IN

2009

CO

NST

AN

T D

OLL

AR

S

GDP PERCENT CHANGEUnited States

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Delta Associates; July 2015.Note: Annualized.

gdP Percent changeunited states

35%

15%

5%5%5%

3%

34%

Federal Spending

Technology

Building Industry

International Business

Health/Education

Hospitality

Other

Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; October 2014.

$502Billion

SHARE OF GRPWashington Metro Area | 2015 Projection

Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, U.S. Conference of Mayors, Delta Associates; July 2015.

share of grPWashington metro area | 2015 Projection

HIGHLIGHTS


offiCESUMMARY AND FORECASTThe Washington metro area’s office market struggled somewhat in the second quarter of 2015. Overall office space absorption was relatively weak, but Class A office space recorded a modest amount of absorption. Office demand in the Washington metro area continues to be driven by private sector tenants in search of smaller, higher quality spaces at reduced prices. More notably, Class A buildings in denser, transit-accessible submarkets have been outperforming the market as a whole. The two ongoing trends of densification (reduction in space leased per worker) and flight to quality are likely to continue in the near term, although they have begun to wane. Also, as Federal austerity measures begin to wind down, there should be revived GSA leasing activity in the market. By 2017, resurgent job growth should boost demand for office space, though most demand will remain concentrated in the District of Columbia and in the most desirable Metrorail-served suburban submarkets.

Another cause for optimism is the investment sales market, which continues to experience high volume and rising per-square foot (SF) prices. Several high profile properties changed hands during the first half of 2015, including a two-building sale in the District with a price in excess of $1,000/SF. The combined effects of rising demand and increased investor confidence should build meaningful market momentum in 2016 and real traction by 2017.

NET ABSORPTION Net absorption in the Washington metro area totaled negative 195,000 SF in the second quarter of 2015, significantly less than the positive 259,000 SF recorded in the first quarter. Class A space recorded nominal positive absorption of 6,000 sf, still less than the positive 247,000 sf recorded in the 1st quarter . negative absorption in northern virginia for all classes of space (-310,000 SF) and Class A space (-187,000 SF) dragged down the region’s numbers significantly. The quarterly average absorption for the entire metro area year-to-date is positive 30,500 sf, well behind the 2013 and 2014 quarterly average of 273,500 sf .


offiCERecent patterns of office space absorption have been largely determined by location and class of properties . since the recent recession, prospective tenants have been taking advantage of depressed rents by leasing space in higher-quality buildings near transit, but they are reducing their space usage . See Figure 1.

VACANCYthe Washington area’s direct vacancy rate at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2015 is 11 .2%, up slightly from 11 .0% one year prior . the Washington metro still maintains one of the lowest vacancy rates among large markets in the united states . new york city has the lowest vacancy rate at 6 .2% (exclusive of northern new Jersey and long island) . the Washington area’s direct class a vacancy rate as of the 2nd quarter 2015 is 13 .4%, which is unchanged from the 2nd quarter of 2014 . See Figure 2.

PIPELINEThere is 4.4 million SF of office space under construction in the Washington metro area as of June 2015 . the majority of the space currently under construction (2 .4 million sf, or 54%) is in northern virginia, with much of it concentrated along the new metro silver line . there is 31 .9 million sf of office space planned in the Washington metro area as of June 2015 and 65 .8 million sf proposed . given current market conditions, we do not expect many of the planned projects to deliver within the next two years .

EFFECTIVE RENTSThe average effective office rent increased to $29.93 per SF as of the second quarter of 2015, up 0.35% from the first quarter of 2015 . notably, rents in the metro area increased more in the first half of 2015 (up .6%) than they did in all of 2014 (total growth 1 .3%) . overall, the market will remain favorable for tenants, though less so into 2016 and beyond . We expect concession packages to remain elevated in 2015, as many tenants remain hesitant to lease additional space, and the battle to secure large tenants is likely to be very competitive . however, we believe the window of opportunity to secure reduced rents on quality class a space is closing, particularly in the region’s top submarkets .

DIR

ECT

VA

CA

NC

Y R

ATE

OFFICE VACANCY RATESSelect Markets | Second Quarter 2015Figure 2

Source: Delta Associates; July 2015.Note: Includes owner-occupied and single-tenant space.

11.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

NYC SF Bos Was LA Hou Mia Den OC Chi Atl Dal Phx

National Vacancy Rate: 13.2%

NET

AB

SOR

PTI

ON

(T

HO

USA

ND

S O

F SF

)

OFFICE NET ABSORPTIONWashington Metro Area | 2011 – Second Quarter 2015Figure 1

Source: Delta Associates; July 2015.

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

*First half of 2015.


offiCEsteady but moderate increases in rent will likely continue for the remainder of the year . We expect it will not be until 2016 before the Washington metro area experiences more material gains in rent .

INVESTMENT SALES VOLUMEinvestment sales totaled $3 .5 billion during the first half of 2015, compared to $4 .5 billion during the first half of 2014 . sales prices averaged $389/sf in the Washington metro area during the first half of the year . this compares to $374/sf one year prior .

competition for large tenants is likely to remain fierce in the near-term and concession packages are expected to remain elevated in 2015 .


offiCE

summary of office marKet indicatorsWashington metro area | second Quarter 2015

1Class A is defined as properties that tend to be the best in the market, have above-average design, construction and finish, minimal or no deferred maintenance, superior locations, achieve the highest rents, and have tenants of strong credit quality. Class A RBA per REIS. 2Does not include buildings under construction or buildings owned by the government. 3Source: REIS. Source: Delta Associates; July 2015.

0

35,000

70,000

No VA Sub MD The District

Under Construction Planned Proposed

IN T

HO

USA

ND

S O

F SF

OFFICE PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINEWashington Metro Area | Second Quarter 2015

Source: REIS, Delta Associates; July 2015.

office ProJects in the PiPelineWashington metro area | second Quarter 2015

IN M

ILLI

ON

S O

F SF

OFFICE DEMAND AND DELIVERIES IN NEXT TWO YEARSWashington Metro Area | Second Quarter 2015


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

6.8

0.7

4.4

Demand Under Construction Planned

office demand and deliveries in next tWo yearsWashington metro area | second Quarter 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

CURREnT inDiCAToRS All ClASSES ClASS A1

rentable building area (sf)2 406,002,947 174,739,608

vacant available (sf) 45,433,946 23,396,972

direct vacancy rate 11 .2% 13 .4%

net absorption (sf) - Q2 2015 (195,000) 6,000

2014 357,000 2,897,000

2013 1,831,000 822,000

% rent change Q4 2014 - Q2 2015 1 .6% --

invESTMEnT SAlES yTD All ClASSESnumber of transactions 65

total sales $3,523,000,000

average Price per sf $389

DEvEloPMEnT PiPElinE All ClASSES ClASS A1

under construction (sf)3 4,373,564 4,330,294

PRojECTionS foR jUnE 2017 All ClASSESdirect available space (sf) after Proj . demand 43,700,000

direct vacancy rate 10 .6%


APARTMEnTSSUMMARY AND FORECASTShifts in demographics and lifestyle preferences benefit the apartment market, where annual absorption records continue to be broken (four quarters in a row now) and vacancy remains below national levels. However, rent growth has been tepid, at best, in this highly competitive environment. As the regional job market improves, the Class A apartment market is poised for growth in the period ahead, although an elevated pipeline persists throughout the region. 2015 could continue to see declines in rent growth, but, as the 36-month development pipeline slowly declines, rents will likely begin to rise and recover to long-term average rates by 2018.

ABSORPTIONthe region continues to experience record setting absorption, as 13,800 class a units were absorbed during the past 12 months – more than double the Washington area’s 10-year average . unlike past dynamics, class a absorption was not at the expense of the class b market, which also experienced positive absorption of 2,684 units . a steady supply of new apartments continues to attract the increasing number of millennial households in the metro area that tend to/prefer to rent rather than own . in recent years, there has also been an increase in the types of jobs and income categories that tend to generate demand for rental apartments rather than ownership housing . since 2011, the share of renter households in the metro area has been on the rise .


APARTMEnTSthese trends will likely continue through the end of this decade . as a result, these factors are expected to produce solid class a apartment absorption, supporting our projected annual demand of about 10,300 class a units over the next three years . See Figure 1 and 2.

VACANCYWashington metro area stabilized vacancy for all classes of apartments is 3 .7%, 50 basis points lower than a year ago . despite the high volume of new product, the June 2015 vacancy rate for class a apartments in the metro area remains unchanged from a year ago at 4 .1% . in particular, mid- and high-rise vacancy is down 130 basis points while low-rise vacancy is up 90 basis points . given the projected delivery schedule of pipeline projects, the region-wide vacancy rate for stabilized class a apartment properties will likely edge upward from 4 .1% today to the mid 5% range before declining to approximately 3 .8% by the second quarter of 2018 . See Figure 3.

RENTSoverall, rents have held up surprisingly well despite the increased competition over the past couple of years, thanks to record regional absorption . effective rents for all classes of investment-grade apartments rose by 0 .6% over the last 12 months . class a rents declined by 0 .1% while class b rents rose by 1 .7% . for class a, rent performance of low-rise product continues to outperform mid- and high-rise product, with low-rise class a rents increasing by 1 .0% while mid- and high-rise rents decreased by 1 .6% . regional class a rents likely will decline in 2015 due to the large slate of scheduled deliveries compared to projected demand . rents are expected to begin to rise in 2016 and rent growth to recover to the 2.5%–3.5% range by 2017 as growth in 2018 approaches long-term rates .

13,800

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

NET

AB

SOR

PTI

ON

O

F U

NIT

S

ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT NET ABSORPTION Washington Metro Area | Second Quarter 2015Figure 2



3.7%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

NY LA Phi Chi Wash Phx Balt DFW Atl Hou

VA

CA

NC

Y R

ATE

*First quarter data except for Washington, which is as of second quarter 2015.

APARTMENT VACANCY RATESMajor Apartment Markets | All Classes of ApartmentsFigure 3

annual absorption records continue to be broken (four quarters in a row now) and vacancy remains below national levels .


PER

ECEN

T O

F TO

TAL

HO

USE

HO

LDS

*As of first quarter 2015.

RENTER HOUSEHOLDS Washington Metro vs. United States | 2007 – 2015Figure 1

35.8%

27%

29%

31%

33%

35%

37%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

Washington MetroU.S.

Y E A R L Y A VE R A G E


APARTMEnTS

PIPELINEthe pipeline of likely deliveries over the next 36 months continues on a slow cyclical decline, down to 37,247 units as of the second quarter . since 2013, the 36-month pipeline has hovered between 37,000 and 40,000 units, but it will likely shrink to a more healthy level over the next 12 to 24 months as financial feasibility becomes more difficult in the face of rising construction costs and relatively flat rents. Most of the pipeline decline will come from projects that delay starting construction . only 10% of the 21,848 units currently under construction (but not yet leasing) metro-wide are of a scale suitable for switching to condominiums before delivery . approximately 2,934 units at 12 projects started construction in the first quarter. In total, an estimated 15,121 units are slated for delivery over the

next year, a 6% increase over the 14,231 units delivered over the last 12 months . deliveries are expected to slow to 9,517 units in the following 12-month period, more consistent with the absorption rate in recent years . See Figure 4.

INVESTMENT SALES the Washington investment sales market experienced an increase in class a sales activity in 2014, with $1 .78 billion of multifamily class a building sales (seven low-rise properties and 11 mid-/high-rise properties), up 6% from 2013 . the average per unit price for 2014 sales was 1.0% lower than 2013 for low-rise units (at $230,880); high-rise per-unit prices were up 7 .7% from 2013 (at $459,060) . it is expected that sales volume in 2015 will surpass 2014 . through June 2015, we note $1 .48 billion of multifamily class a building transaction volume in 14 trades .

meanwhile, a total of 15 multifamily land sales closed in 2014, totaling $220 million, with the capacity for more than 4,200 multifamily units, compared with $282 million in sales during 2013 with the capacity for more than 4,200 units . so far in 2015, at least one $18 million multifamily land sale has been recorded .

CAP RATESbased on response from delta associates’ 2014 market maker survey participants, apartment cap rates held steady at cyclical lows in 2014 due to record absorption counterbalancing a near-record level of pipeline . the survey indicated that apartments remain in favor as an asset class . We expect cap rates to edge up in the near future due to macro-economic conditions, expectations for rising interest rates, and a crowded pipeline set to deliver in 2015 .


MA

RK

ET R

ATE

UN

ITS

PLA

NN

ED A

ND

U/C

37,247

0

15,000

30,000

45,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINEWashington Metro Area | Second Quarter 2015Figure 4

*As of second quarter 2015.


APARTMEnTS

summary of aPartment marKet indicatorsWashington metro area | second Quarter 2015

1“Same-store” (comparable unit) rent comparison.


MA

RK

ET R

ATE

UN

ITS

IN T

HO

USA

ND

S

CLASS A APARTMENT DEMAND AND DELIVERIES IN NEXT THREE YEARSWashington Metro Area | Second Quarter 2015


0

15

30

45

10,333 / year

5,701

31,546

Demand Under Construction Planned

class a aPartment demand and deliveries in next three yearsWashington metro area | second Quarter 2015

ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT RENT CHANGEWashington Metro Area


PER

CEN

T EF

FEC

TIV

E R

ENT

CH

AN

GE

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

*Annual rent change at Second Quarter 2015 is -0.1%.

annual class a aPartment rent groWthWashington metro area

HIGHLIGHTS

CURREnT inDiCAToRS ClASS A ClASS beffective rents $1,919 $1,601

Comparison at 6/14 $1,905 $1,578

rent increase/annum since June 2014 1

-0 .1% 1 .7%

vacancy rate 4 .1% 3 .2%

Comparison at 6/14 4 .1% 4 .4%

net absorption

Q3 14 - Q2 15 16,484

Q3 13 - Q2 14 8,639

DEvEloPMEnT PiPElinE ClASS Adeliveries

Q3 14 - Q2 15 14,231

Projected deliveries

Q3 15 - Q2 16 15,121

Q3 16 - Q2 17 9,517

Q3 17 - Q2 18 3,345

starts

Q2 2015 2,934

Q3 14 - Q2 15 10,649

36-month Pipeline

At 6/2015 37,247

At 6/2014 39,962

PRojECTionS foR jUnE 2018 ClASS Aavailable unites 41,894

stabilized vacancy 3 .8%


ConDoMiniUMSSUMMARY AND FORECASTA shortage of condo product still persists in the Washington metro area. As a consequence, condo sales activity has slowed. Determining same-store price change in this supply-constrained market has also become difficult. Almost two thirds of the units introduced to the market over the past 12 months have been sold, leaving a small inventory of units for comparison. Still, there is evidence that prices for new condos continue to rise metro-wide, albeit at a slower pace. Sales activity is expected to see some gains as well, thanks to moderate conversion and switch activity. Recent local job growth in sectors with incomes that support the purchase of new condo units — such as Professional/Business Services and Education/Health — will likely bode well for the market in the near term.

SALES VOLUMEin what is typically the strongest quarter of the year, sales volume metro-wide is down . the Washington metro area saw 345 net sales in the second quarter, down 7% from the first quarter . sales over the past 12 months also declined 4% from the prior 12-month period . it is important to keep in mind that product shortage has hampered sales volume in the region, and not rather than weak demand . however, there are over 2,000 condo units in the pre-marketing stage; most of these units are expected to begin sales over the next few months . as more condominium product is brought to market, new unit sales will likely reach the 1,600 to 2,000 range in 2015 . See Figure 1.

0

200

400

600

800

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

201220112010 2013 2014

NET

SA

LES


NEW CONDOMINIUM SALES ACTIVITYWashington Metro Area | Second Quarter 2015Figure 1

2015


ConDoMiniUMS

PRICESthe average effective price per square foot for “same-store” new condo sales in the metro area rose by 2 .1% over the past 12 months . as the inventory of fresh units stabilizes, price increases will remain moderate because fewer newly built, desirable units are available to dilute the effect on average price of lower-quality units (those that face the dumpster or have poor floor plans). Percentage price increases are expected to be in the mid-single digits over the next 24 to 36 months . See Figure 2.

CONCESSIONSconcession rates have increased by 60 basis points metro-wide since June 2014 . concessions now average approximately 2 .2% of asking price in the metro area .

PIPELINEthe number of unsold units in projects currently marketing or under construction (and not yet marketing) is 3,854 units as of June, up nearly 20% since march and the most since 2010 . this is partially due to a slight increase in conversion and switch activity throughout the metro area, including the largest condo switch so far in this cycle . approximately 1,900 condo units in 30 projects started construction in 2014 — the highest annual total since the middle of the last decade . an estimated additional 1,924 units will start construction in 2015, excluding conversions not already announced . however, the number of units planned to begin sales within the next 36 months decreased slightly to 3,258 units before attrition, with a majority located in the core areas of the region .

the supply-demand balance in the Washington region will continue to favor the developer in most areas, with a still-limited new condo unit supply and rising prices . at the same time, there appears to be a dearth of resale listings . as a result, we foresee new unit prices rising and improved development opportunities in many parts of the metro area through 2017 . See Figure 3.

% C

HA

NG

E


2.1%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EFFECTIVE NEW CONDOMINIUM SALES PRICE CHANGEWashington Metro Area | Second Quarter 2015Figure 2

CONDOMINIUMS ACTIVELY MARKETING OR UNDER CONSTRUCTIONWashington Metro Area | Second Quarter 2015Figure 3


3,854

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15

UN

SOLD

MA

RK

ET

RA

TE U

NIT

S


ConDoMiniUMS

summary of condominium marKet indicatorsWashington metro area | second Quarter 2015

1“Sold” units defined as a binding contract of sale with deposit.Includes multifamily rental conversions, but excludes age-restricted and townhouse properties. These sales are net of contract fall-outs.


MA

RK

ET R

ATE

UN

ITS


0

3,500

7,000

6,600 / year

1,578

3,854

Demand Under Construction Planned*

*Accounts for attrition.

CONDOMINIUM DEMAND AND DELIVERIES IN NEXT THREE YEARSWashington Metro Area | Second Quarter 2015

condominium demand and deliveries in next three yearsWashington metro area | second Quarter 2015

CONDOMINIUM UNIT DELIVERIESWashington Metro Area | Second Quarter 2015


0

4,000

8,000

12,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Column1

N o r m a l i z e d D e m a n d R a n g e

MA

RK

ET R

ATE

UN

ITS

condominium unit deliveriesWashington metro area | second Quarter 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

CURREnT inDiCAToRSnew unit sales1 345

12 months ending June 2015 1,480

12 months ending June 2014 1,543

new unit average Price per sf $360

% change in avg . effective Psf since June 2014

2 .1%

concessions as % of asking Price at June 2015 2 .2%

DEvEloPMEnT PiPElinE nUMbER of UniTSunsold units in Projects currently marketing or under construction

3,854

Planned to deliver within 36 months 3,258

Total 36 Month Pipeline 7,112

Planned/rumored long-term 7,564

Planned condominium or rental 52,365

RETAil


SUMMARY AND FORECASTThe Washington metro area retail market continues to improve on a steady, if modest, track. Vacancy rates continue to decline and rents have been rising steadily since 2010. Retail real estate in the region avoided disaster during the recession and lackluster recovery — remarkable considering the pressures of slow job growth, stagnant wages, and booming online merchandising. More recently, the Washington metro area economy is experiencing an expansion with strong job growth and a resumption of Federal procurement. This bodes well for consumers and retail real estate. Development activity throughout the metro area — mixed-use projects in the core, renovations of older centers in mature suburbs, and plans for new centers in the outer suburbs — highlights optimism among developers and their capital partners for retail centers to thrive throughout the region. With an inventory of 73.3 million SF, the Washington metro area suburbs have 16.3 SF per capita of neighborhood/community shopping center space — a significant drop from just a few years ago and another indication of the region’s capacity to absorb more of the basic neighborhood/community retail space that is in the pipeline.

VACANCYvacancy rates in neighborhood and community centers remain high relative to pre-recession averages across the metro area, although they have been declining gradually since 2012 . the vacancy rate for shopping centers in the Washington suburbs at second quarter of 2015 was at 7 .0%, a decline of about 10 basis points from 7 .1% at second quarter 2014 .


RETAil

PIPELINEas of second quarter 2015, there is 2 .6 million sf of shopping center space under construction across all shopping center types in the Washington metro area suburbs . overall, there is 6 .5 million sf of planned (i .e ., permitting completed, awaiting groundbreaking) shopping centers throughout the Washington suburbs . Proposed centers – for which permits and financing have yet to be secured – total 10.3 million SF. See Figure 1. twelve grocery-anchored shopping centers are under construction in the metro area, totaling 1 .6 million sf, and many more in the planning stages .

RENTSrents in neighborhood and community centers have been climbing slowly but steadily since 2010 . average effective rent rose in Washington suburban centers by 2 .1% from 2013 to 2014 . average effective rent in the metro area was $24 .35 per sf at second quarter 2015 . this compares to the average of $23 .78 per sf at second quarter 2014 .

INVESTMENT SALESthere were two notable investment sales of grocery-anchored shopping centers during the second quarter of 2015 . in the Washington metro area suburbs, investment sales of grocery-anchored shopping totaled $483 million (averaging $285 per SF) in the first half of 2015, surpassing the 2014 total of $323 million ($353 per SF). See Retail Highlights.


THO

USA

ND

S O

F SQ

UA

RE

FEET

2,633

6,546

10,299

0

4000

8000

12000


PIPELINE OF ALL SHOPPING CENTER TYPES Washington Metro Area Suburbs | Second Quarter 2015Figure 1


RETAil

HIGHLIGHTS

SF/C

AP

ITA

Source: REIS, Census Bureau, Delta Associates; July 2015.

27.5 27.9

16.5 16.3

0

15

30

2012 2013 2014 2015*

NEIGHBORHOOD/COMMUNITY SHOPPING CENTER SPACE PER CAPITAWashington Metro Area Suburbs | Second Quarter 2015

*As of June 2015.

neighborhood/community shoPPing center sPace Per caPitaWashington metro area suburbs | second Quarter 2015


THO

USA

ND

S O

F SQ

UA

RE

FEET

2,633

6,546

10,299

0

4000

8000

12000


PIPELINE OF ALL SHOPPING CENTER TYPES Washington Metro Area Suburbs | Second Quarter 2015Figure 1

grocery-anchored shoPPing center investment sales Washington metro area suburbs

Source: REIS, Delta Associates; July 2015..

EFFE

CTI

VE

REN

T P

ER S

F

$23.49$23.66

$24.14$24.35

$23.00

$23.50

$24.00

$24.50

2012 2013 2014 2015*

NEIGHBORHOOD/COMMUNITY SHOPPING CENTER EFFECTIVE RENT PER SQUARE FOOT Washington Metro Area Suburbs | Second Quarter 2015

*As of June 2015.

neighborhood/community shoPPing center effective rent Per sQuare foot Washington metro area suburbs| second Quarter 2015


VA

CA

NC

Y R

ATE 8.0%

7.8%

7.0% 7.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

2012 2013 2014 2015*

NEIGHBORHOOD/COMMUNITY SHOPPING CENTER VACANCY RATESWashington Metro Area Suburbs | Second Quarter 2015

*As of June 2015.

neighborhood/community shoPPing center vacancy ratesWashington metro area suburbs | second Quarter 2015


HoUSingSUMMARY AND FORECASTThe housing market in the Washington metropolitan area has shifted from rapid recovery to a more stable phase. During the second quarter of 2015, year-over-year average sales price declined 0.4%. Price growth stalled even as sales activity rose to its highest level since the downturn, and time-on-market has been below the long-term average. Months-of-inventory still remained lower than the historic average, but it is expected to ease as more listings come online. As the inventory crunch continues to ease, local price growth likely will remain in the more modest range of 1% to 3% annually in the short term. Favorable regional economic trends — strong job growth, low unemployment rates, and the return of Federal procurement — bode well for the housing market. The anticipated interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2015 may also further spur sales activity as potential buyers act to take advantage of favorable mortgage rates while they are still at historical lows.

PRICESPrice growth in the region rose steadily since 2009, but has slowed in recent months . in the second quarter of 2015, the average sale price for a Washington area home declined 0 .4% from a year ago . this rate compares to the year-over-year growth of 3.2% at second quarter 2014. It is the first decline in average price since the fourth quarter of 2011 . Price growth likely will remain at modest levels as listings continue to increase in the near term . Prospects for the Washington metro area housing market in the longer term remain positive . despite the recent slight price depreciation, the regional housing market is among the most stable in the nation . since 1995, according to the fhfa, average prices in the Washington region have grown about 8 .8% annually . See Figure 1.

176%

0%

75%

150%

225%

PRICE CHANGES IN PURCHASE-ONLY INDICES Select Large Metro Areas | 1995 – 2015Figure 1

PR

ICE

CH

AN

GE

S

Source: FHFA, Delta Associates; July 2015.Note: Price change at first quarter of respective year; seasonally adjusted.


HoUSing

UNIT VOLUMEsales activity typically peaks this time of the year, but recent sales volume is noteworthy . unit volume sold during the second quarter of 2015 increased 10.9% from one year ago. The first half of 2015 registered the highest six-month sales volume the region has seen since 2006 . this contrasts with sluggish sales in 2014 . Washington area homebuyers are likely acting to take advantage of more reasonable prices and the still-low interest rates before both go up . as job growth – especially concentrated in sectors with incomes that support the purchase of for-sale housing units – outpaces price gains, sales activity is likely to continue at a robust pace .

MONTHS OF INVENTORYthe metro area has an average of 2 .4 months of for-sale inventory at the end of second quarter 2015 . this compares to the 1 .7 months of inventory in the second quarter of 2013, the peak of the housing market recovery . active listings were up 10% and at the highest level (20,094) since the second quarter of 2006, but months of supply remains below the long-term average of 3 .9 months as demand kept pace . See Figure 2.

DAYS ON MARKEThomes in the Washington area averaged 47 days on the market in the second quarter of 2015, down 22 days from one year ago and below the 10-year average of 69 days . strong sales this quarter were a key factor in the decline in time on market over the year . despite a larger selection of listings, pent-up demand from Washington area buyers remains strong . the availability of relatively moderately-priced homes might have prompted some buyers to close on sales faster than normal, locking in lower prices and relatively low interest rates . See Figure 3.

HOME PRICE CHANGE AND INVENTORY Washington Metro Area | Second Quarter 2015Figure 2

0

3

6

9

12

15

-30%

-15%

0%

15%

30%

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1512

-MO

NTH

PR

ICE

CH

AN

GE

MO

NTH

S O

F INV

EN

TOR

Y*

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; July 2015.*Months of inventory at current sales pace for last month in each quarter.

ANNUAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET Existing Houses | Washington Metro AreaFigure 3

27

105

45

47

0

40

80

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

DA

YS

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; July 2015.*As of Second Quarter 2015.


HoUSing

HIGHLIGHTS

summary of housing marKet indicatorsWashington metro area | second Quarter 2015

1Sales pace at June 2015. Pace is ratio of total for-sale inventory to current month’s sales.Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; July 2015.

-0.4%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

PR

ICE

CH

AN

GE

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; July 2015.

HOME SALES AVERAGE PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro Area

*As of Second Quarter 2015.

home sales average Price changesWashington metro area

FOR-SALE LISTINGS Existing Houses | Washington Metro AreaSecond Quarter 2015

LIST

ING

S

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; July 2015.

0

15,000

30,000

45,000

Jun02

Jun03

Jun04

Jun05

Jun06

Jun07

Jun08

Jun09

Jun10

Jun11

Jun12

Jun13

Jun14

Jun15

for-sale listings existing houses | Washington metro area second Quarter 2015

-25%

0%

25%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

Washington Metro Area U.S. 20 MSA Composite

PERCENT CHANGE IN HOME PRICESWashington Metro vs. United States | First Quarter 2015

% C

HA

NG

E

Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, Delta Associates; July 2015.*12 months ending July 2015. Note: Seasonally adjusted purchase-only index

Percent change in home PricesWashington metro vs . united states second Quarter 2015

CURREnT inDiCAToRS CHAngE yEAR-ovER-yEAR

average sales Price $486, 158 -0 .4%

Comparison at Q2 2014 $488,153

sales (units) 20,094 10 .9%

Comparison at Q2 2014 18,113

average days on market 47 5

Comparison at Q2 2014 41

sales Place (months)1 2 .4 -0 .1

Comparison at Q2 2014 2 .5

for sale listings 18,423


ARTiClE

obSERvATionS on THE ConTinUing SUSTAinAbiliTy of MUlTifAMilyby david KesslerCommercial Real Estate Industry Practice – National Director

given the ominous, often-raised red flags about overbuilding, the multifamily sector continues to outperform other sectors by a significant margin . according to fourth quarter 2014 data from cbre for the country’s 64 largest markets, absorption is at a four-year high, even given the fact that new units coming on line is at its highest level since 2008 . rents are up by a healthy 5 .3% year-over-year, and multifamily acquisitions reached a record $34 billion in the fourth quarter .

What’s sustaining multifamily’s forward momentum? simply put, there continue to be way too many positive trends and market conditions going for multifamily for the long-expected bubble to burst anytime soon . the demographics alone have their own set of tailwinds—both from the millennials’ perspective as well as the boomers’ . the migration to life in the inner city, along with all the amenities, attractions, and conveniences that lifestyle affords, makes for consistent, almost voracious demand in most trendy, mixed-use urban markets . Continued flat-lined interest rates mean builders, developers, and investors have almost unfettered access to capital for the right kinds of deals . finally, stabilized property fundamentals in most markets also fuels the continued enthusiasm for multifamily .

so where then, does caution come into play? even if these trends remain strong, indefinite success cannot be taken for granted. Top-of-the-line amenities and seductive marketing can fill an individual development, but turning apartment living into a lifestyle product brings the fickleness of fashion into the equation. Meaning, today’s hot property can suddenly find itself on the defensive when an even sexier development goes up down the street . not only will the “older” property have greater competition in attracting tenants, but it can’t assume it will be able to retain a high percentage of the ones it has—which is, of course, one of the foundations of maximizing return on investment . as a result, even with rent increases and low vacancy rates, concessions like one, two, or even three months’ free rent are commonplace .

so for the present, while the fundamentals remain in the landlord’s favor, competition among properties remains strong. If the multifamily market ever does slacken, the competition for tenants will become even fiercer. But even in today’s “developer’s market”, those who ultimately succeed are those who recognize that no matter how well they are doing, there will always be mitigating factors to consider in either staying the course, or taking a fresh look at all aspects of your current investment strategy .


AboUTAs one of the top accounting firms in the nation, CohnReznick provides a full array of services to the commercial real estate industry . our clients include such institutional investors as private equity funds and pension funds investing in real estate, as well as public and private real estate companies including commercial and residential property owners and operators, hotels and resorts, real estate developers, construction companies, homebuilders and land developers .

CohnReznick’s National Commercial Real Estate Industry Practice manages complex, high profile engagements employing a broad range of sophisticated financial skill sets and precise, closely coordinated teamwork. We offer the technical knowledge, sizable resources and in-depth infrastructure of a national firm, but at reasonable and competitive fee levels, consistently utilizing senior-level engagement team members who provide clients with the personal service they deserve and have come to expect .

our real estate professionals are comprised of highly experienced thought leaders who understand the broadest range of accounting, tax and business issues across all sectors of the commercial real estate industry . from concept through development and implementation, we focus our energies into providing keen insights, proven, success-oriented strategies and close personal service .

CohnReznick provides services to a broad cross-section of the real estate industry including:

• Public and Private real estate companies• Private equity funds• Pension funds investing in real estate• commercial and residential Property owners and operators• reits• hotels and resorts• real estate developers• construction companies• land developers• homebuilders• lenders• Nonprofits• municipalities• community redevelopment groups• local governments

for more information on cohnreznick’s national commercial real estate industry Practice, please visit www.cohnreznick.com/commercialrealestate

david Kessler, cPaCommercial Real Estate Industry Practice – National Directorcohnreznick llP7501 Wisconsin avenue, suite 400ebethesda, md 20814-6583 301-652-9100www.cohnreznick.com

www.cohnreznick.com/commercialrealestate

www.cohnreznick.com

http://www.cohnreznick.com


AboUTthis publication on the Washington metro area economy and commercial real estate market is a production of cohnreznick llP in consultation with delta associates .

Delta Associates is a firm of experienced professionals serving the commercial real estate industry for 35 years. The firm’s main practice areas are:

1 . consulting, research, and advisory services for all property types throughout the united states (including market feasibility studies, highest and best use analysis, market entry strategies, asset performance enhancement stud-ies, market due diligence, white papers on special topics, valuation analysis, and litigation support); and

2 . Subscription publications for selected metro areas for the apartment, condominium, office, retail, and housing markets .

for more information on delta associates, please visit DeltaAssociates.com .

delta’s Washington area commercial real estate market update team includes: • rachelle sarmiento, senior associate: rachelle .sarmiento@deltaassociates .com or 202 .778 .3114• david Weisel, cre, chief executive• sallie drumheller, graphic designer

© 2015. All rights reserved. You may neither copy nor disseminate this report. If quoted, proper attribution is required.

Although the information contained herein is based on sources which Delta Associates (DA) believes to be reliable, DA makes no representation or warranty that such information is accurate or complete. All prices, yields, analyses, computations, and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Under no circumstances should any such information be considered representations or warranties of DA of any kind. Any such information may be based on assumptions which may or may not be accurate, and any such assumption may differ from actual results. This report should not be considered investment advice.

1717 K street, nW, suite 1010 Washington, dc 20006202 .778 [email protected]

www.DeltaAssociates.com

mailto:Rachelle.Sarmiento%40DeltaAssociates.com?subject=

mailto:info%40deltaassociates.com?subject=

https://www.deltaassociates.com/

https://www.facebook.com/DeltaAssociates

https://www.linkedin.com/company/delta-associates

https://twitter.com/DeltaAssociates

cohnreznick llP © 2015this has been prepared for information purposes and general guidance only and does not constitute professional advice . you should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice . no representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and cohnreznick, its members, employees and agents accept no liability, and disclaim all responsibility, for the consequences of you and anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it .

CohnReznick is an independent member of Nexia International

Documents

Washington Area Commercial Real Estate Market Update: Second Quarter 2015