WCRP Accomplishment Report 2005-2009 - World … 6 April 2009 Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd WCRP Accomplishment Report 2005-2009 Promoting, Facilitating and Coordinating Climate Research

JSC-30 6 April 2009Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd

WCRP Accomplishment Report2005-2009

Promoting, Facilitating and CoordinatingClimate Research in Service to Society


Outline• Mission and Objectives• Implementation• Main Accomplishments

Facilitating Climate Science AwarenessGlobal/Regional Science CoordinationObservations, Synthesis and MonitoringModeling and Prediction CapabilitiesApplicationsCapacity Building

• Lessons Learned• Conclusions


Reports, Newsletters, E-Zine, Web, …

2007-2008 Accomplishment Report2006-2007 Accomplishment Report


Mission & ObjectivesWCRP supports climate-related decision making and planning

adaptation to climate change by developing the science required to determine the:

Predictability of climate; andEffect of human activity on climate

Aim: “to make new advances in the analysis and prediction of the variability and change of the comprehensive Earth system for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society”

Coordinated Observation & Predictionof the Earth System (COPES)

WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015


Implementation Projects, Activities & Partners

Sponsors and Partners: WMO | ICSU | IOC-UNESCO

Core Projects: GEWEX | CLIVAR | SPARC | CliC

Unifying COPES Themes: Observations | Analysis | Modeling

Cross-Cutting Activities: Anthropogenic Climate Change | Atm. Chemistry & ClimateSea Level Rise | Extremes | Seasonal Prediction Decadal Prediction | Monsoons | International Polar Year

Co-Sponsored Activities: SOLAS | START | AOPC | OOPC | GOOS | GCOS

ESSP Partners: IGBP | IHDP | DIVERSITAS

ESSP Joint Projects: GWSP | GCP | GECAFS | GEC&HH

Other Collaborations: CEOS | CLIPS | DRR | GEO | GEOSS | GTOS | IGOSIPCC | WWRP-THORPEX | UNFCCC | World Bank


Climate Science Awareness Assessments

• Nobel Peace Prize

Accomplishments

Experiments from 16 groups & 24 coupled modelsNov 2008: >2200 users; >500 publications; >462 Tb

• Prominent display of WCRP science• Leadership role as authors/reviewers• WGCM: CMIP3 Open Data Access

IPCCWarming is Unequivocal

and very likely due to human activities


IPCC

Accomplishments

CliC: Cryospherechapter 1941 Alaska1941 Alaska

AustriaAustria19001900


2007: 38% below average2008: 34% below average


WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessments

Accomplishments


Experiments from 16 groups

• SPARC: Leadership roleboth in terms of people(authors/referees) andscientific input (peer-reviewed SPARC reports)

• CCMVal modeling effortdefined, collected andanalyzed simulations

Cartoon illustrating how climate change could affect ozone recovery


Climate Science Coordination & IntegrationPartnerships with other International Programs

e.g., IGBP AIMES, IGAC, PAGES, IMBER, iLEAPS, SOLAS

Accomplishments

WGCM CMIP5Decadal + Long-Term ProtocolsScenario Development

Traditional forward approach

New approach: Start with Concentrations

IPCCAR5


Climate Science Coordination & IntegrationPartnerships with other International Programs

Accomplishments

WCRP, IGBP & GCOS Workshop: Future Climate Change Research and Observations – Lessons Learned from IPCC AR4 (Oct 2007, Sydney Australia)

Using vulnerability of regions and sectorsto climate change is a possible framework to link urgent science questions with societal concerns. WCRP News, June 2008

Workshop examined gaps in observations and basic science raised by the IPCC (I & II), and at deficiencies in the way information about climate change can be used for estimation of impacts, design of adaptation measures, andassessment of regional vulnerability Critical Research

Needs


Climate Science Coordination & IntegrationInternational Polar Year

Accomplishments

WCRP InvolvementCoordinated by CliC

-180

-150

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

45 6 0 75 90

Pc (mm)

0 - 1010 - 2020 - 3030 - 4040 - 5050 - 6060 - 7070 - 8080 - 9090 - 390

Arctic stations and Precipitation

Themes & Structures of IPY Projects

Climate at forefront thru > 20 WCRP-Affiliated Projects


Climate Science Coordination & IntegrationWithin WCRP

Asian Monsoon Years (07-12)

• Major component of WCRP IMS• 24 regional projects/13 nations• Goal: Improved predictions

Accomplishments

GEWEX and CLIVAR: Monsoon Studies

American, African, Asian-Australian MonsoonField Campaigns, Monitoring and Modeling


Climate Science Coordination & IntegrationAcross WMO

Accomplishments

• WGNE – e.g., a new parameterization expert group, with aim of WMO-wide coordination to strengthen links with applications

• WCRP/WWRP-THORPEX – e.g., YOTC coordinated observing,modeling, and forecasting to advance prediction of organizedtropical convection and two-way tropical/extratropical interactions

• WMO-CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)


Observations, Synthesis, and MonitoringWCRP Observations and Assimilation Panel

Climate Data Records:• Continuity and homogeneity of observations• Need for reprocessing of records and reanalysis

Reanalysis:• Atmosphere, ocean, whole Earth system• Sponsored a series of three WCRP reanalysisconferences

• Third in Tokyo, Japan (28 Jan – 1 Feb 2008)• Full report in Eos• Conference Statement to reanalysis centers• Joint AOPC/GCOS WG to improve reanalysis data sets

Accomplishments

WOAP Members from all WCRP Projects and Modeling Groups and GCOS science panels (AOPC, OOPC, TOPC)


Observations, Synthesis, and MonitoringGEWEX

Tropical (25°S-25°N) Rainfall

GPCP

Accomplishments

Regional Data Sets

Past MAGSHYMEX New RHP with CLIVAR

CEOP coordinates RHPs to achieve goal of demonstrable skill in predicting changes in water resources and soil moisture


Observations, Synthesis, and Monitoring

(60°S-60°N)

Accomplishments

SPARC: peer-reviewed WCRP reports and review papers

Temperature change is important component of attribution research:Thus, major effort by SPARC to ensure best possible database

Intercomparison of Hygrometers at theAIDA cloud chamber (AquaVIT)

Stratospheric Water Vapor

Three week “blind” intercomparison will feed into 2010 SPARC report on water vapor trends and climatologies

2006 Ozone Assessment



Greenland Melt Area

CliC

5.00E+06

1.00E+07

1.50E+07

2.00E+07

2.50E+07

3.00E+07

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Area

Mel

ted

(km

2 )

Year

Total Melt AreaApril - October

20021998

19951991

19921996

2005

1987

1983

2007

Accomplishments

But not everything is melting …



Greenland Melt Area

CliC

5.00E+06

1.00E+07

1.50E+07

2.00E+07

2.50E+07

3.00E+07

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Area

Mel

ted

(km

2 )

Year

Total Melt AreaApril - October

20021998

19951991

19921996

2005

1987

1983

2007

Accomplishments

AIM: initiate a process to create a more comprehensive, coordinated and integrated cryospheric observing system



CLIVAR

IndOOS Monitoring AMOC

Accomplishments

Venice, 21-25 Sept 2009 in partnership with IOC


Observations, Synthesis, and MonitoringCLIVAR

Accomplishments

12m-rm seasonal anom: NATL Averaged temperature over the top 300m

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Time

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

ukdpukoicfcs2cfas2ecco50y

gfdlsodaecmfaecmfcukgs

ingvmri-eccoSIOcfasamct2

mct3eccoJPLaeccoJPLceccoMITGMAO

sdv ensm = 0.164s/n ensm = 1.620

sdv all = 0.206s/n all = 2.028

spread = 0.101

GSOP: Ocean Synthesis Evaluation Workshops

N. Atlantic Temp(0-300 m)

ARGO

WCRP enablinginitialized predictions


Prediction CapabilitiesCLIVAR WGSIP

Accomplishments

180 attendees/30 countries

Maximum predictability not yetachieved – interactions among climatesystem components (pan WCRP)

Goal is to leverage, coordinate and synthesize ongoing activities into a focused seasonal prediction experiment that incorporates all

elements of the climate system: first steps in seamless capability


Prediction CapabilitiesJSC/CLIVAR WGCM

Accomplishments

Decadal Prediction First Attempts


Prediction CapabilitiesGEWEX GMPP

Accomplishments

MISSION is to facilitate improved representationof energy and water cycle in models

• Largely translates into evaluation andimprovements of parameterizations

• Process studies are a critical tool

e.g., GCSS-community designed DYCOMS to narrow uncertainty in stratocumulus top-entrainment rate

(Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus)

Underestimated Stratocumulus

OLD

NEWECMWF model


Prediction CapabilitiesSPARC CCMVal

Process-oriented model metrics

Accomplishments

Effect of ozone recovery on SH high-latitude climate change

2001-20502001-2050

Interactive chemistry AR4 models

Highlights need to represent ozone recovery in climate predictions


Prediction CapabilitiesWCRP Modeling Panel

Accomplishments

World Modeling Summit (May 2008)– A strategy to revolutionize weather & climate prediction

– Concept of seamless prediction

– Climate Prediction Project (IGBP, WWRP, WCRP) to provide global climate information for regional adaptation and decision-making

– World Climate Research Facility to accelerate progress in operational climate prediction, building global capacity, developing a trained scientific workforce, and engage global users

The next big climate challenge“Governments should work together to build the supercomputers needed for future predictions that can capturethe detail required to inform policy”

“Climate prediction is anational security issue if

ever there was one”

15 March 2008


Applications

Accomplishments

e.g., Malaria

Research to aid predictions/assessment of conditions and

habitat for vector-borne diseases

African Climate Atlashttp://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/ c ~clivar/ClimateAtlas/

(easy access for non-experts)


Applications

• WCRP scientists active in planning/organizing

Accomplishments

• WCRP will: – Promote climate research in the context of climate

information for decision-makingWMP Modeling Summit & Model Development Climate Information System Framework

– Play a major role in the scientific/technical segment (white papers, theme leaders, etc.)

– Engage in the policy segment which targets heads of states, ministers, senior government officials


Capacity Building

Accomplishments

WCRP and ICTP Workshops:Interpreting Climate Change Simulations:Capacity Building for Developing Nations

(November 2007)

Applying RCMs to Developing Nations in Support of Climate Change Assessment and Prediction

(March 2008) VACS Southern & Eastern African Climate Predictability

Workshop(July 2006)

Workshops on use of model outputs


Capacity Building

Accomplishments

• With partners, facilitate participation of early-career scientists – in particular from developing countries – in workshops/conferences, e.g.

– SPARC General Assembly (53 sponsored students/32 from developing countries)

– ENSO Summer School, Hawaii, US, June 2008

– ClimEco Training Seminar, Brest, FranceApril 2008

– SOLAS biannual summer school (2003 – )– Ice Sheet modeling school

– NCAR 2009 ASP Colloquium – …


Lessons Learned

• Much WCRP success arises from facilitation, largely through the core projects, of community workshops/conferences and activities to build consensus on programs and implementation plans to address key issues and challenges in climate science

• Activities with targeted, short-term deliverables, set within a broader strategic framework, resonate with scientists and funding agencies and are highly successful in focusing efforts and resources and advancing understanding

• Project Offices (IPOs) are critical for making things happen, and leverage significant resources from individual countries

• Progress can be hampered when activity leaders have too many other commitments; engaging young scientists who can ‘make their careers’ in leadership roles can be very effective


Lessons Learned

• The WCRP core projects play a key role supporting regional efforts, but also in coordinating such efforts (so that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts)

• Scientific information is most useful when scientists work directly with users

• WCRP is the most important global organization supporting fundamental climate science, in growing partnerships with other international programs, as is necessary to tackle challenging interdisciplinary Earth System science questions

• As the climate-information for climate risk management agenda advances, WCRP is and should remain the primary research partner to ensure the scientific base and rigor for a Climate Service System, as well as the innovator for improved products and quality of information


Conclusions

• WCRP has a great opportunity (with attendant challenges) to build on its 30 years of successful legacy by staying focused on the forefront of climate system research for the rest of this century

• WCRP must promote and enable the timely use of climate information and knowledge it generates for decision-making through its partnerships with providers and users of such information

• The greatest challenge for WCRP is to demonstrate the value of its global and regional scientific coordination and integration efforts to sponsors, donors, and the participant scientists and organizations that support its Projects and activities

Documents

WCRP Accomplishment Report 2005-2009 - World … 6 April 2009 Jim Hurrell and Ted Shepherd WCRP Accomplishment Report 2005-2009 Promoting, Facilitating and Coordinating Climate Research