Wednesday 2/4 Lesson 11.1 Readiness Lesson

HW: PreTest

Thursday 2/5 Lesson11.2 Likelihood & Probability

HW #11.2

Friday 2/6 Lesson 11.3 Sample Space

HW # 11.3

Monday 2/9 Lesson 11.4 Relative Frequency &

Experimental Probability

HW #11.4

Tuesday 2/10 Lesson 11.5 Theoretical Probability

HW #11.5

Wednesday 2/11 Lesson 11.6 Probability Models

HW # 11.6

Thursday 2/12 Lesson 11.7 Review

HW #11.7

Friday 2/13 Unit 11 TEST

Do Now Page 1. Compare .

Change both into percents, then compare

again.

2. Probability of an event: If the probability

that it will rain tomorrow is 40%, what is

the chance that it will NOT rain?

Is it likely or unlikely that it will rain tomorrow?

3. Sample Space The spinner below is

used to determine who wins a game.

Player A wins if the spinner lands

on a prime number. Player B wins if

the spinner lands on a composite

number.

Is the game fair? Explain.

4. Relative frequency: A number cube is

rolled and a coin is flipped. Write the

sample space for all possible outcomes.

5. Theoretical Probability Based on the data below:

Color of

Marble

Red Blue

# of times

picked

24 52

a) P(red)

b) P(blue)

6. If you roll a number cube what is the

theoretical probability of getting a multiple

of 2?

If you roll it 36 times, how many 4’s should you

expect to get?

7. What is the difference between experimental and theoretical probability?

The probability of an event measures

Likely

Certain

The probability of an

event is a number from

_____ to______

Words to describe:

Impossible

Not likely

As likely as not

Probability

of an event

It can be represented by

List the sample space

Flipping a coin and choosing a

marble from a bag with 1 red, 1 blue,

and 1 green.

Sample

Space

R B

G

Using your data:

P(4)

P(less than 5)

P(odd number)

It is also known as

experimental

probability.

Roll the dice on the smart board 10

times. Chart your results.

Relative

Frequency

If you are talking about results

from an experiment, that’s

experimental probability!

Theoretical means, in theory

(without doing an experiment)

P(event) =

If I roll a dice, what is the theoretical

probability of rolling a 6?

Theoretical

Probability

Formula

Lesson 11.1 Readiness Lesson

Intro: What are some basketball statistics that are important to keep track of?

How do you compare one basketball player’s skills to another? What types of numbers and

operations might you use?

Example 1: The table shows the number of field goals attempted and the field goals made for three different

players on the Mustang basketball team this season. What is each player’s ratio of field goals

made to field goals attempted?

Example 2: Which player made the greatest percentage of their field goal attempts? Round to

the nearest percent.

Example 3: Maria made of her field goal attempts last season. If Maria attempts 160 field

goals this season and makes them at the rate she did last season, about how many field goals will

she make?

Post Activity:

QUICK REPORT Use your results from this activity to complete the report below

about the player on the team with the greatest field goal percentage. In Column 4,

write her predicted number of field goals made for this season.

Player With Best Field

Goal Percentage

Field Goal

Ratio

Field Goal

Percentage

Number of Field

Goals This Season

REFLECT Explain how you used each skill in this activity.

_________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________

b. converting between fractions, decimals, and percents

_________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________

c. multiplying a fraction and a whole number

_________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________

Lesson 11.2 Likelihood & Probability

Impossible Unlikely Equally

Likely

As Likely as

Not

Likely Certain

P(cherry) read as “the Probability of getting cherry”

Complete the chart below:

Likelihood Fraction Decimal Percent

P(lemon)

P(green apple)

P(grape and lemon)

P(cherry)

Predictions: Based on a probability, you can make predictions on future events

Example: If I have a box of 350 candies

a) About how many should you expect to be cherry?

b) How many are expected to be lemon?

c) How many are expected to be grape?

Activity: Racing Game Activity

Discussion: What makes a game fair?

Goals: Design a fair way to play the racing game using the number of students (players) and

tools you are given. Each tool is used independently. Play each game using your rules, and show

data to prove it is fair.

Tool 1:____________________________

Rules:

Tool 2:_______________________________

Rules:

Tool3:________________________________

Rules:

Lesson 11.3 Sample Space

Action: In probability

situations, an action is a

process with an uncertain

result.

Outcome: An outcome is a

possible result of an action.

Sample Space: The set of all

possible outcomes is the

sample space for the action.

Example: The band direction chooses one trumpet player at random to lead the band in the

holiday parade. List all outcomes in the sample space.

Try it!

Action: One spin of the spinner.

What is the sample space for this action? How many outcomes are in the sample space?

An event is a single outcome or group of outcomes from a sample space.

Example: The band director will choose one trumpet player. Which trumpet players are in each

event?

Event: Choose a boy Event: Choose a person with a first name

that starts with a J.

Try it! Action: One spin of the spinner

Event: The spinner stops on a composite number

Outcomes:

Describe the event who’s outcomes are 4, 3, 2, 1, and 0

Example:

Try it! List the following in the order: action, sample space, event

Win the game. Play the game. Win, lose, tie

Lesson 11.4 Relative Frequency & Experimental Probability

Results from our experiment:

Find:

P(hitting the circle) P(not hitting the circle)

Model Problem:

Spin a spinner 40 times to collect data

Red Orange Green Blue

Tallies

Totals

Class total

Find

P(red) P(green or blue) P(yellow)

Practice Questions: A cashier in a grocery store asks each customer what type of bag to use. The table shows how

many customers requested each type of bag during the cashier’s three-hour shift. Find the

experimental probability that a customer asks for plastic bags. Write the probability as a fraction

and as a percent. Round to the nearest percent.

Hits Misses

Lesson 11.5 Theoretical Probability

Is the game fair? Explain _________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________

Example 1: Here is a view of all six faces of a number cube.

Find theoretical P(zero)

Are the theoretical and experimental probabilities always equal? Explain why or why not.

________________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________________________

Example 2: Use the spinner to determine the theoretical probability of each situation.

You Try!: Identify each situation as experimental or theoretical

A soccer player took 12 shots on goal and

scored once. P(scores) =

You rolled a standard number cube 50 times

and get eight 3’s P(3) =

You choose one tulip at random from the face

P(red) =

Practice Problems:

Theoretical Probability vs. Experimental Probability

Complete your assigned tasks in pairs.

TASK 1: Directions:

1) Set up a chart listing your

sample space.

2) Roll your number cube 30

times and record your

results.

TASK 2: Directions:

1) Set up a chart listing your

sample space.

2) Flip your coin 30 times and

record your results.

Theoretical Probability vs. Experimental Probability

Complete your assigned tasks in pairs.

TASK 3: Directions:

1) Using the spinner on the

board, create 5 equal

sections.

2) Set up a chart listing your

sample space.

3) Spin the spinner 20 times

and record the results.

TASK 4: Directions:

1) Set up a chart listing

your sample space of

choosing one paperclip.

2) Choose a paperclip and

return it back to the bag

20 times.

3) Record your results.

Lesson 11.6 Probability Models

A probability model consists of

an action, its sample space, and a

list of events with their

probabilities.

Example 1:

Which list of probabilities does not complete a probability model for this action?

How can you check to see if it is complete?

What could be added to make it complete?

Practice Problems:

1.

2.

A probability model based on using theoretical probably of equality likely

outcomes is a uniform probability model.

Before setting up a probability model, ask yourself:

Can I use theoretical probability?

OR

Do I need to collect data and use an experimental probability?

3. If I want to choose between Jonathan, Tyler or Jake to be first in line, what experiment could I design that would be fair for everyone?

Lesson 11.7 Review

Mini Quiz:

1. Based on the spinner to the right. Write your answer as a percent, decimal, and fraction

P(odd number) ______% ________ ________

P(less than 6) ______% ________ ________

Which one above is as likely as not?

How would you describe the other?

2. An experiment was done with a spinner. See the results below.

a) Based on the results from the table, write the experimental probability for picking blue as

a percent.

b) What is the theoretical probability of picking a blue?

c) If the spinner was spun 120 times, how many times would you expect to be blue? How

does this compare to your results from part a?

3. Sort the following: as Event, Sample Space, or Action

History, English, Math

Picking a class

Choosing Math

Extra Practice

Question 1:

Lessons 11.1 & 11.2

Question 2:

Lessons 11.4 & 11.5

Question 3:

Lesson 11.3

Look back in your class

work packet:

How would you describe an

event? There are 5 words or

phrases.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Using the numbers

above, which number

would describe:

a) P(rain) = 50% ____

b) The sun will rise

tomorrow. ____

c) A meteor will fall on

your house _____

d) The sun will set in

the east _____

e) A student wearing

long pants tomorrow

______

Look back in your class

work packet:

I rolled a 6-sided die 24

times and here are the

results.

Side # of times

1 5

2 4

3 3

4 1

5 7

6 4

Based on the data above,

what is the experimental

probability of:

P(2)

P(odd number)

P(greater than 3)

What is the theoretical

probability of getting a 4?

How does this compare to

the data?

Base your answers on the

spinner below:

Identify the action, the

sample space and the event.

a) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

b) Spin the spinner

once

c) Spin an odd #

How many outcomes

are there?

Review for Test Unit 11 Study Guide Probability

Question Correct Answer Round 1 Round 2 1. What is

probability?

1) The chance of something

happening. It is

represented in fractions,

percents or decimals.

2 1 0 2 1 0

2. Which of these can

be used to

represent

probability?

Choose from:

Fraction, decimal,

Percent

2) All three can be used.

50% = ½ = .5

2 1 0 2 1 0

3. True or False

All probabilities can be

represented between 0

and 1.

3) True 2 1 0 2 1 0

4. The probability it

will rain tomorrow is

0.65. What is the

probability it will NOT

rain tomorrow,

expressed as a percent,

decimal and fraction.

4) 1- 0.65 = 0.35

0.35, 35%,

2 1 0 2 1 0

5.

What is P(odd

number)?

5) or 50% 2 1 0 2 1 0

6. What is the

difference between

theoretical and

experimental

probability?

6) Theoretical probability is

what should happen based on

the information. Experimental

probability is based on the

data after an experiment.

2 1 0 2 1 0