WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS - 20140314

7/27/2019 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS - 20140314

1/17

14March2014


2/17

KeyHighlights

Inflation decelerated further in February 2014 due to the moderate

increase in the general price level over the previous month and the baseeffect. The contribution to inflation, in February 2014 came mainlyfrom the non-food category.

Tea production in 2013 reached all time high of 340.2 million kgsupported by favorable weather conditions in the first half of the year.

The year-on-year growth of Factory Industry Production Index FIPIincreased by 3.6 per cent on year-on-year basis in November 2013,mainly due to the increase in wearing apparel sector which recorded a

highest growth of 10.9 per cent, supported by increased orders fromU.S and Euro areas and also the shifting orders from Bangladesh due tosafety issues expected to further facilitate the growth of this sector.

All the three sectors of the economy rebounded during the 3rd quarterof 2013, in comparison with the same tenure of the last year; wherenoteworthy recovery in the Agriculture Sector could be observed due tothe improved Yala harvest.

Real Sector & Inflation

Crude oil prices showed some volatility during the beginning of March2014. Higher prices were mainly caused by worries over supplydisruptions of world's biggest oil producer, Russia due to their militaryintervention in Crimea peninsula in Ukraine. However, the increment in oil

prices were restrained due to a drop in China's exports stocks reflectinga slowdown in the world's second largest economy.

Page 01


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February

2014

Colombo Consumers' Price Index (CCPI ) 177.8 177.5 170.7

Annual Average Change % 6.0 6.5 8.6

Year - on - Year Change % 4.2 4.4 9.8

Core Inflation - ( CCPI ) 170.6 170.1 165.4

Annual Average Change % 3.8 4.1 6.3

Year - on - Year Change % 3.1 3.5 7.4

Week Ending Week EndingMar 13 Mar 13

Rice

Samba 72.50 70.00 71.38 66.57 78.00 78.00 77.75 70.46Kekulu (Red) 59.00 59.00 59.75 52.39 65.00 65.00 66.50 59.60

Vegetables

Beans 100.00 60.00 72.50 107.69 120.00 80.00 92.50 134.42

Cabbage 20.00 40.00 29.00 64.76 40.00 60.00 52.50 92.88

Carrots 60.00 60.00 75.00 108.94 80.00 80.00 97.50 133.46

Tomatoes 60.00 35.00 47.50 67.84 80.00 60.00 77.50 99.81

Pumpkins 30.00 30.00 21.50 37.12 40.00 50.00 42.50 57.60Snake Gourd 50.00 40.00 42.50 55.69 70.00 60.00 65.00 80.77

Brinjals 40.00 40.00 45.00 61.42 60.00 60.00 70.00 85.58

Ash-Plantains 50.00 40.00 57.50 63.27 70.00 60.00 77.50 84.23

Other Foods

Red-Onions (Local) n.a 65.00 60.00 148.68 100.00 80.00 90.00 182.38

Big-Onions (Local) n.a n.a n.a. 97.21 n.a n.a n.a. 127.22

Potatoes (N'Eliya) 82.50 85.00 77.50 96.95 110.00 120.00 100.00 117.31

Dried Chilies (Imported) 187.00 183.00 188.25 176.50 220.00 220.00 220.00 219.71

Dhal (Indian) 135.00 134.00 139.75 131.39 160.00 160.00 157.50 148.85

Eggs (Red) 14.50 14.50 13.00 13.39 15.00 15.00 13.50 13.89

Coconut (Each) 38.00 39.00 39.75 37.62 45.00 45.00 50.00 43.98

Fish

Kelawalla 430.00 350.00 360.00 387.27 580.00 640.00 421.25 477.31

Balaya 280.00 280.00 242.50 280.00 330.00 400.00 292.50 341.76

Salaya 60.00 40.00 75.00 134.71 100.00 80.00 105.00 179.04

Paraw (Small) 500.00 400.00 360.00 442.60 550.00 460.00 405.00 505.60

* Prices collected from the Fisheries Trade Centre, Peliyagoda.

Year AgoAnnual Avg

Item

Rs / Kg Rs / Kg

Average Wholesale Prices Average Retail Prices

MonthAgo

Year AgoAnnual Avg

MonthAgo

WeekAgo

WeekAgo

Month

Ago

Year

AgoItem

(2006 / 07 = 100)

4

5

6

7

89

10

J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

AnualAverage

CCPI - Anual Average

2014

2013

Month

1.1 Price Indices

1.2 Pettah Market

page 02


4/17

Wholesale

(Average)Retail (Average) Mar 12 Week Ago

Rice Rice

Samba 73.00 76.00 Samba 75.33 75.33

Kekulu (Red) 59.50 63.50 Kekulu (Red) 56.67 58.00

Vegetables Vegetables

Beans 71.00 101.00 Beans 90.00 86.67

Carrot 46.50 83.00 Cabbage 70.00 70.00

Tomatoes 26.10 54.00 Carrots 96.67 100.00

Pumpkins 22.90 41.00 Tomatoes 80.00 80.00

Snake Gourd23.50 42.50

Pumpkins66.67 66.67

Ash-Plantains 39.00 57.50 Snake Gourd 100.00 106.67

Other Foods Brinjals 73.33 73.33

Red-Onions (Local) 55.00 72.50 Ash-Plantains 100.00 93.33

Big-Onions (Local) n.a n.a Other Foods

Potatoes (N'Eliya) 84.00 102.00 Red-Onions (Imported) 120.00 106.67

Dried Chilies(Imported) 195.30 240.00 Big-Onions (Imported) 60.00 76.67

Coconut (Each) 33.60 42.50 Potatoes (Imported) 76.67 80.00

Dried Chilies (Imported) 220.00 220.00

Dhal (Indian) 160.00 163.33

Average wholesale price of Rice Eggs (Red)(Each) 15.00 14.50

Week Ending Coconut (Each) 48.33 46.67

Mar 14 FishSamba 66.02 63.70 65.57 62.64 Kelawalla 550.00 650.00

Sudu Kekulu 61.20 60.90 60.94 52.03 Balaya n.a. 360.00

Raw Red 57.70 57.52 55.91 49.55 Salaya 60.00 80.00

Nadu 62.14 61.72 62.07 53.71 Paraw (Small) 590.00 840.00

Item

(Rs / Kg)

Week

Ago

Item (Rs / Kg)Week Ending Mar 13

Item (Rs / Kg)Average Retail Prices

Month

Ago

Year

Ago

32.00

42.00

52.00

62.00

72.00

82.00

J/1

F/1

M/1

A/1

M/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

S/1

O/1

N/1

D/1

D/5

Rs./kg

Rice - Kakulu

2013

2012

Months

306090

120150180210240

J/1

F/1

M/1

A/1

M/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

S/1

O/1

N/1

D/1

D/5

Rs./kg

Beans20132012

Months

30

60

90

120

150

180

J/1

F/1

M/1

A/1

M/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

S/1

O/1

N/1

D/1

D/5

Rs./kg

Potatoes

2013

2012

Months

200250300350400450500550

J/1

J/4

F/3

M/2

A/1

A/4

M/3

J/2

Jy/1

Jy/4

A/3

S/2

O/1

O/4

N/3

D/2

Rs./kg

Kelawalla

20132012

Months

32

42

52

62

72

82

J/1

F/1

M/1

A/1

M/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

S/1

O/1

N/1

D/1

D/5

Rs./kg

Rice - Kakulu

20132012

Months

306090

120150180210240270

J/1

F/1

M/1

A/1

M/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

S/1

O/1

N/1

D/1

Rs./kg

Beans

20132012

Months

40

70

100

130

160

190

J/1

J/4

F/3

M/2

A/1

A/4

M/3

J/2

Jy/1

Jy/4

A/3

S/2

O/1

O/4

N/3

D/2

Rs./kg

Potatoes

20132012

Months

250

325

400

475

550

625

J/1

J/4

F/3

M/2

A/1

A/4

M/3

J/2

Jy/1

Jy/4

A/3

S/2

O/1

O/4

N/3

D/2

Rs./kg

Kelawalla

20132012

Months

1.3 Dambulla Market 1.4 Narahenpita Economic Centre

Table 1.5 Maradagahamula Market

Page 03


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2013(a) 2012

Dec Dec

Central Government Employees (b) 5,653.3 5,304.7 6.6

Workers in Wages Boards Trades 3,938.1 3,662.9 7.5Agriculture 4,449.0 4,434.4 0.3

Industry & Commerce 3,459.1 2,402.1 44.0

Services 2,313.2 1,851.8 24.9

2013 (b) 2012

Nov Nov

Factory Industry- Production Index 112.8 108.8 3.6

Food products 102.6 107.3 -4.4

Beverages 99.0 95.0 4.3

Tobacco products 103.0 94.4 9.1 Wearing apparel 139.7 126.0 10.9

Chemicals and chemical products 84.3 94.1 -10.3

Rubber and plastic products 122.3 114.8 6.5

Other non-metallic mineral products 100.8 104.0 -3.0

(a) Major 7 sub divisions of FIPI out of 17 sub divisions.

(b) Provisional

2013* 2012*

Jan - Dec Jan - Dec

Tea (Mn Kg) 340.2 328.4 3.6

Rubber (Mn Kg) 130.4 152.0 -14.2

Coconuts (Mn Nuts) 2,513.3 2,939.5 -14.5

* Provisional

2013* 20123rdQuarter 3rdQuarter

Agriculture 7.0 -0.5 5.8

Industry 8.1 7.3 10.3

Services 7.9 4.6 4.6

GDP 7.8 4.8 6.4

* Provisional Source: Department of Census and Statistics

2012

AnnualItem

Item Unit%

Change

Item%

Change

(1978 = 100)

Item%

Change

3200

36004000

4400

4800

5200

5600

6000

Ind

exValue

Wage Indices (1978 = 100)

CentralGovt.WagesBoards

Months

80

90

100

110

120

130


I

ndex

Factory Industrial Production

2012

2013

Months

050

100150200

250300350

J F M A M J Jy Au S O N D

Mn.kg

.

Tea Production

2013

2012

Months

01234

56789

10'Q1

10'Q2

10'Q3

10'Q4

11'Q1

11'Q2

11'Q3

11'Q4

12'Q1

12'Q2

12'Q3

12'Q4

13'Q1

13'Q2

13'Q3

PercentageChange

Real GDP

Quater

1.6 Wage rate Indices

1.7 Factory Industry-Production (FIPI) ( 2010 = 100 ) (a)

1.8 Agriculture Production

1.9 GDP by Industrial Origin at Constant (2002) Prices - Growth Rates

Page 04


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2013(a)

2ndQuarter

Labour Force Participation rate 54.2 51.5 52.6

Unemployment rate 4.4 3.9 4.0

Employed Persons by Sectors %

Agriculture 31.5 30.3 31.4Industry 26.2 26.9 26.3Services 42.3 42.8 42.3(a) The working age population aged 15 and above Source: Department of Census and Statistics

January 113.95 94.76 111.22 109.21 94.71 112.75February 117.39 95.32 111.16 110.01 100.82 109.31

March 109.63 92.94 106.57

April 103.40 92.02 111.17

May 103.04 94.51 108.91

June 103.16 95.77 105.29

July 108.62 104.51 -

August 112.94 106.58 113.48

September 113.63 106.19 111.01

October 109.88 100.54 -

November 108.10 93.77 110.39

December 111.37 97.62 112.13

07 March 111.58 91.53 110.04 102.82

10 March - - 109.17 101.39

11 March 109.80 92.07 109.25 100.29

12 March 109.64 92.44 108.78 98.29

13 March 108.67 92.47 108.36 98.57

Sources: Reuters Energy Information Administration

Ceylon Petroleum Corporation

Item2012(a)

2ndQuarter

2012(a)

Annual

2013 2014

(*) CPC import prices are not directly comparable with spot prices of WTI and Brent as CPC is import prices include freight charges and the price is

weighted for average prices of different types of crude oil. Also Part of the imports of CPC are on a term contract basis.

Month

2013 2014

Spot Prices (US $/bbl) Spot Prices (US $/bbl)

Brent

(Benchmark

price)

CPC Import

Prices (C&F)

(US$/bbl)(*)

Brent

(Benchmark

price)

WTI

(Benchmark

price)

CPC Import

Prices (C&F)

(US$/bbl)(*)

WTI

(Benchmark

price)

5.1

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.3

6.2

5.95.7

5.0

5.4

4.94.5

4.3

4.2

3.9

3.9

4.0 3.9

4.6

4.4

02

4

6

8

10

12

'1Q0

8

'2Q0

8

'3Q0

8

4Q0

8

1Q0

9

2Q0

9

3Q0

9

4Q0

9

1Q1

0

2Q1

0

3Q1

0

4Q1

0

1Q1

1

2Q1

1

3Q1

1

2Q1

2

3Q1

2

4Q1

2

1Q1

3

2Q1

3

Rate

Unemployment Rate

Year/ uarter

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

IndexValue

Crude Oil Prices

Brent

WTI

Months

1.10 Employment

1.11 Average Crude Oil Prices

Page 05


7/17

All short term market lending rates continued to adjust downwards from

end 2013 levels in response to the compression of the Standing RateCorridor (SRC) and excess liquidity. Weekly AWPR declined by 125 bps to 8.88 per cent for the week ending

14 March 2014 compared to end 2013. The Average Weighted DepositRate (AWDR) and the Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR)for February 2014 also declined by 54 basis points (to 8.83 per cent) and79 basis points (to 10.99 per cent), respectively from end 2013.

The growth of credit extended to the private sector, on a year-on-yearbasis in December 2013 was 7.5 per cent compared to 7.3 per cent inNovember 2013.

The All Share Price Index (ASPI) and the S&P SL 20 Index decreasedmarginally by 0.28 per cent and 1.74 per cent to 5,896.2 points and 3,207.1points, respectively by 14 March 2014 compared to end 2013.

The total outstanding market liquidity has been fluctuating around Rs 197billion through out the week. This has been absorbed through various OMOinstruments. Majority of the liquidity have been absorbed through theTerm Repo transactions while another considerable amount has beenabsorbed through Short-term repo auctions.

Monetary Sector

KeyHighlights

The reserve money has been increased compared to the previous weekmainly due to increase in currency in circulation (i.e. due to net currencywithdrawals with the CBSL by the commercial banks).

page 06


8/17

Week Ending

March 14

Commercial Bank Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) 8.88 8.74 13.81

Treasury Bill Yield (Excluding 10% withholding tax)

- 91 days 6.69 6.71 9.16- 182 days 6.85 6.88 10.15

- 364 days 7.06 7.07 11.19

Standing Deposit Facility 6.50 6.50 7.50

Standing Lending Facility 8.00 8.50 9.50

Call Money Weekly Average (CMR) 6.91 6.88 9.42

Sri Lanka Inter Bank Offer Rate ( SLIBOR )

1 day 7.00 7.00 9.48

7 days 7.60 7.60 10.17

1 Month 8.03 8.02 12.03

3 Months 8.49 8.50 12.84

6 Months 8.87 8.90 13.33

12 Months 9.36 9.41 13.86

Commercial Banks Oct 2013 Month Ago Year Ago

Saving Deposits - 0.75-9.00 0.75-9.00 0.75-10.50

One Year Fixed Deposits - 6.00-16.00 6.00-16.00 5.00-16.00

Feb 2014 Month Ago Year Ago

Commercial Bank Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR) 8.83 9.14 10.56

Commercial Bank Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR) 10.99 11.46 13.82

Jan 2014 Month Ago Year Ago

Commercial Bank Average Weighted Lending Rate (AWLR) 14.83 15.18 16.12

NSB Oct 2013 Month Ago Year Ago

Saving Deposits - 5.00 5.00 5.00

One Year Fixed Deposits - 10.00 10.00 12.50

(08 Y & 04 Months) (09 Y & 10 Months) (14 Y & 10 Months)

26/02/2014 26/02/2014 26/02/2014

Coupon rate 11.20 11.40 13.00

Weighted Average Yield (Excluding 10% withholding tax) 9.90 10.00 10.76

Week ending Week ending

March 14 March 14

Bank of Ceylon 11.74 11.92 9.42 9.38

People's Bank 10.63 12.57 9.42 9.46

Hatton National Bank 8.80 8.81 9.72 10.26

Commercial Bank of Ceylon 8.25 7.97 8.51 10.08

Sampath Bank 9.16 8.29 8.04 8.04

Seylan Bank 9.16 9.60 10.90 10.90

Union Bank of Colombo 9.91 11.62 11.40 11.40Pan Asia Banking Corporation 9.00 9.00 10.00 9.42

Nations Trust Bank 8.41 8.27 12.26 11.71

DFCC Vardhana Bank 11.62 11.37 13.09 13.09

NDB Bank 8.22 8.21 10.09 10.09

Amana Bank 10.45 10.44 - -Axis Bank

Indian Bank

Indian Overseas Bank

Treasury Bonds Auction

Bankwise- AWPR Week Ago

HSBC

Bankwise- AWPR

Standard Chartered Bank

Citi Bank

Deutsche Bank

Habib Bank

MCB Bank

State Bank of India

Public Bank

ICICI Bank

Week Ago

Item Week Ago Year Ago

6

78

9

10

11

12

J/12

A Jy O J/13

A Jy O

R

ate

Call Money RatesMinAvgMax

Months

7.47.67.88.08.28.48.68.89.09.29.4

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Rate

Weekly

Min

Avg

Last 4 Weeks

2.1 Interest Rates

Page 07


9/17

2013 (a) 2013 (a)

December December

M1 484.6 454.4 450.0 7.7 5.7 2.6

M2 3,058.8 2,997.7 2,593.2 18.0 18.5 18.3

M2b 3,417.9 3,363.1 2,929.1 16.7 16.7 17.6

Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System (b) -76.3 -63.6 -25.8 -195.5 -154.0 -126.3Monetary Authorities 529.1 479.9 396.5 33.5 34.8 16.6

Domestic Banking Units (DBUs) -231.2 -197.4 -121.9 -89.7 -75.0 -91.2

Foreign currency Banking Units(FCBUs) -374.3 -346.1 -300.4 -24.6 -29.1 -68.5

Net Domestic Assets of the Banking System (b) 3,494.2 3,426.7 2,954.9 18.3 17.9 23.4

DBUs 2,996.5 2,947.5 2,541.5 17.9 17.2 19.1

FCBUs 497.7 479.2 413.4 20.4 22.9 59.2

Net Credit to Government 1,301.3 1,325.5 1,045.2 24.5 25.6 25.4

Monetary Authorities 114.0 127.8 278.8 -59.1 -61.3 6.1

DBUs 995.7 1,005.4 634.0 57.0 70.6 34.1

FCBUs 191.7 192.4 132.4 44.8 41.8 35.0

Credit to Corporations 365.1 308.0 292.5 24.8 18.0 47.3

DBUs 164.7 124.5 91.3 80.4 72.1 27.8FCBUs 200.4 183.5 201.2 -0.4 -2.8 58.3

Credit to the Private Sector 2,534.3 2,519.0 2,358.4 7.5 7.3 17.6

DBUs 2,327.4 2,309.3 2,172.1 7.1 7.0 19.2

FCBUs 207.0 209.7 186.3 11.1 9.9 1.1

Reserve Money 488.6 472.0 484.4 0.9 -1.0 10.2(a) Provisional (b) In relation to M2b

Change

Reserve Money (Rs.Mn.) 506,425 498,470 7,955

10.03.2014 11.03.2014 12.03.2014 13.03.2014 14.03.2014

Call Money Market

Weighted Average Rate (% p.a.) 6.89 6.88 6.89 6.95 6.94

Gross Volume (Rs. Mn) 2,125 6,330 5,382 5,300 3,610Repo Market

Weighted Average Rate (% p.a.) - - - - -

Gross Volume (Rs. Mn) - - - - -

10.03.2014 11.03.2014 12.03.2014 13.03.2014 14.03.2014

CBSL T-Bill Holding (Rs. Mn) 49,597 49,597 49,597 49,597 39,990

Item

Item

13 March

2014Week Ago

Rs. Bn.

Month

Ago

Year

Ago

Month

Ago

Year

Ago

Item

Annual Change (%)

Item

400

450

500

550

600

J/1

F/3

M/5

M/2

J/4

A/1

S/3

O/4

D/2

Rs.Bn.

Weekly change inReserve Money

20132012

Months

-6.5

-1.5

3.5

8.5

13.5


Percentage

Money Supply - M1

20122013

Months

16

17

18

19

20

2122

23

24


Percentage

Money Supply - M2

20122013

Months

14

16

18

20

22

24


Percentage

Money Supply - M2b

2012

2013

Months

2.2 Money Supply

2.3 Weekly change in Reserve Money

2.4 Money Market Activity (Overnight)

2.5 CBSL Security Portfolio

Page 08


10/17

10.03.2014 11.03.2014 12.03.2014 13.03.2014 14.03.2014

Short-Term Auction

Repo Amount Offered (Rs. bn) 10.00 - - - 20.00

Reverse Repo Amount Offered (Rs. bn) - - - - -

Tenure (No. of Days) 4.00 - - - 7.00

Bids Received (Rs. bn) 10.56 - - - 2.80

Amount Accepted (Rs. bn) 10.00 - - - 2.80

Weighted Average Yield Rate (% p.a.) 6.64 - - - 6.67Term Auction

Repo Amount Accepted (Rs. bn) - - - - 21.62

Reverse Repo Amount Accepted (Rs. bn) - - - - -

Standing FacilityStanding Deposit Facility (Rs. bn) 7.07 5.19 3.36 0.86 21.19

Standing Lending Facility (Rs. bn) - - - - -

Total Outstanding Market Liquidity (Rs. bn) 203.24 201.36 199.53 197.04 182.40

2013 (a) 2013(b) 2012

End Sep End Aug End Dec

Total Number of Active Cards 926,614 938,621 891,170

Local (accepted only locally) 36,749 36,973 39,963

Global (accepted globally) 889,865 901,648 851,207

Outstanding balance (Rs. Mn.) 49,305 48,339 44,445

Local (accepted only locally) 1,204 1,201 1,183

Global (accepted globally) 48,101 47,138 43,262

(a) Provisional (b) Revised * Issued by Licensed Commercial Banks

2013 (a) 2013 2012

End Sep* End Aug End Dec

Total Issues - Cummulative 21.9 20.2 36.9

Outstandin (as at end of the period ) 9.3 9.4 10.6

* provisional

Week Ending14 Mar 2014

All Share Price Index (1985 = 100) (ASPI) 5,896 5,966 5,689

S & P Sri Lanka 20 Index (S&P SL20) 3,207 3,245 3,241

Average Daily Turnover (Rs. Mn) 421 372 700

Market Capitalisation (Rs.Bn.) 2,463 2,492 2,187

Item Week Ago Year Ago

Item

Item ( Rs. bn.)

(1) Based on the information provided by Licensed Commercial Banks and Licensed

Specialised Banks

Item

20002500300035004000450050005500600065007000

J ,12 M M Jy S N J '13 M M Jy S

Index

Share Market - Month End

ASPIS&P

Months

250030003500

4000450050005500600065007000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Index

Share Market - Daily

ASPIS&P

Months

05

10152025303540


Rs.Bn

Commercial Paper Issues

20122013

Month

2.6 Open Market Operations

2.7 Credit Cards *

2.8 Commercial Paper Issues (1)

2.9 Share Market

Page 09


11/17

Total revenue collection during the first nine months of 2013 increased

largely through higher collection of income and domestic consumptionbased taxes, reflecting an improvement in the tax revenue collection.

Capital expenditure was maintained at a healthy level with the continuationof major infrastructure projects..

Total debt stock as at end September 2013 marginally increased from theprevious month due to an increase in the foreign debt stock arising from

project related financing and foreign investments in governmentsecurities.

Fiscal Sector

KeyHighlights

page 10


12/17

2013 * 2012

Jan-Sep Jan-SepRevenue and Grants 783.2 774.3Revenue 780.2 759.9

Tax 706.7 678.1 Non tax 73.5 81.8Grants 3.0 14.4Expenditure & Lending Minus Repayments 1,275.10 1257.4

Current 920.0 886.2 Capital & Lending Minus Repayments 355.1 371.2* Provisional

2013 * Month Year

End Sep ago agoTotal domestic debt 3,828.8 3,835.6 3,280.4

of which Treasury bills 719.0 771.4 626.8 Treasury bonds 2,421.5 2,449.1 2,161.8 Rupee loans 55.5 55.5 58.4

Total foreign debt 2,971.6 2,948.4 2,887.9

Total outstanding govt. debt 6,800.4 6,784.0 6,168.4

* Provisional

Buying Selling Average

3 Months 6.69% 6.72% 6.76% 6.65% 6.71% 6.72%

6 Months 6.85% 6.89% 6.91% 6.78% 6.85% 6.85%

12 Months 7.06% 7.07% 7.10% 7.01% 7.05% 7.06%

2 < Years - - 7.63% 7.55% 7.59% 7.48%

5 < Years 8.83% - 9.58% 9.38% 9.48% 9.39%

6 < Years - - 9.98% 9.87% 9.93% 9.91%

8 < Years - 9.90% 10.22% 10.08% 10.15% 10.12%

10 < Years - 10.00% 10.46% 10.29% 10.38% 10.33%

15 < Years 10.76% 10.76% 10.85% 10.73% 10.79% 10.79%

20 < Years - 11.07% 11.13% 10.87% 11.00% 11.00% 30 < Years - - 11.53% 11.15% 11.34% 11.34%

Comments:Preassure on the domestic market was eased due to Intaernational Sovereign Bond Issue in January 2014.* Primary market transactions during the week ending 12/03/2014

Maturity This Week

Secondary Market

Treasury Bonds

Last Week

Average

Primary Market*

This Week Last WeekSecurity

Treasury Bills

Item

Item

0200400600800

1000

12001400

1600

J13

F M A M J Jy A S

Rs.Bn.

Government Revenue &Expenditure 2013

Revenue

Months

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2013 / Apr2013 / Aug2013 / Sep

Rs.Bn

Government Debt

DomesticForeign

3.1 Government Finance (Rs.bn)

3.2 Government Debt (Rs.bn)

3.3 Government Securities - Primary and Secondary Market Yield Rates as of 2014.03.12

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

11.00%

12.00%

13.00%

Yield

CurrentYear Ago

4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%

10.00%11.00%12.00%13.00%

Yield

Current

Treasury Bills Treasury Bonds

Page 11


13/17

This Week Last Week

Outstanding Stock of Government Securities

Treasury Bills 827,488.51 829,642.60

Treasury Bonds 3,027,989.03 3,003,590.25

Total 3,855,477.54 3,833,232.85

Government Securities held by Foreigners 489,713.12 489,205.47

Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDB) 368,507.74 368,798.59

This Week Last Week

Treasury Bills

Amount Offered 10,000.00 18,000.00

Total Bids Received 36,082.00 53,713.00Total Bids Accepted 18,252.00 27,073.00

Treasury Bonds

Amount Offered

Total Bids Received

Total Bids Accepted

This Week Last Week Treasury Bills

47,713.27 44,555.90

188,136.00 184,445.10

Treasury Bonds

58,380.95 58,642.80

221,496.35 173,153.10

Volume in Rs Mn

Comment:Foreign holdings on government securities has increased showing improved investor confidence.

No Auction held

Comment: The ratio of amount accepted to amount offered in the T bill auction has been increased to 1.8 comparative to the same

ratio of 1.5 of the previous week's auction, illustrating the improved investor preference for the government papers.

Comment: Secondary Market repo transactions on T bonds has increased showing the investor preference on leveraging due to

improved confidence.

Item/ Week Ended

Outright Transaction (Sales / Purchases) Repo Transaction (Sales / Purchases)

Outright Transaction (Sales / Purchases)

Repo Transaction (Sales / Purchases)

Primary Market ActivitiesVolume in Rs Mn

Secondary Market ActivitiesVolume in Rs Mn

No Auction held

3.4 Government Securities - Weekly Summary of Primary and Secondary Market Transactions

page 12


14/17

During the year so far (up to 14 February 2014) the rupee remainedalmost flat against the US dollar with a slight appreciation of 0.09 percent. Given the cross currency exchange rate movements, the Sri Lankarupee depreciated against the euro (0.39 per cent), the pound sterling(0.72 per cent), the Japanese yen (2.91 per cent) and the Indian rupee(1.11 per cent) during this period.

The reduction in import price index year-on-year, over increase in exportprice index resulted in an improvement in the terms of trade inDecember 2013.

In line with the significant price reduction recorded for key commoditiesin international markets such as petroleum products, the import priceindex declined in December 2013.The export price index increased, driven by the increase in prices oftextiles and garments and tea, the two major export items whichaccount for more than 60 per cent of total exports.

The average price of tea in the Colombo auction continued to increasecompared to other major tea auction centres in December 2013, mainlydue to increased demand for high quality Ceylon tea.

Exports recovered in 2013, despite the downward movement incommodity prices in the international market and a fragile recovery inthe global economy.The largest contribution to the growth in earnings came from industrialexports, mainly due to the improved performance in textiles andgarments, which contributed 43 per cent to total export earnings in2013.Expenditure on imports declined in 2013, reflecting the impact of policymeasures adopted in 2012 to rationalise imports as well as due tosubdued commodity prices in international markets.The trade deficit contracted sharply in 2013 with the pickup in exportstogether with the continued decline in imports.

External Sector

KeyHigh

lights

The continued peaceful environment in the country together withstrategic investments and tourist promotional campaigns resulted in asignificant increase in tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka in 2013.Tourist arrivals in 2013 amounted to 1,274,593, surpassing the initial

target of 1.2 million to record arrivals.Although Western Europe continued to be the prime source market for

tourists to Sri Lanka, tourist arrivals from emerging markets increasedsignificantly in 2013.Gross earnings from workers remittances increased notably, due to

increase in remitting money through formal channels, specially becauseof the introduction of new web based money transferring systems.

page 13


15/17

Buying Selling Average Week YearRate Rate Rate Ago Ago

129.20 132.10 130.65 130.60 126.33

214.01 220.16 217.09 218.52 190.631.26 1.30 1.28 1.27 1.32

178.12 183.98 181.05 180.66 164.29

2.14 2.14 2.33

( As at 13 Mar 2014 ) 202.87 202.61 190.38

December Month Year

2013 go go

239.20 20.00 77.00

11.45 51.38 6.30

Week Ending Week YearMarch 14 Ago Ago

Average Daily Interbank Volume (US$ Mn.) 67.57 56.38 73.28(spot, tom and cash transactions among commercial banks)

Forward Rates (US$) (2)

1 Month 131.12 131.20 127.49

3 Months 132.14 132.64 129.18

Average Daily Interbank Forward Volume (US$ mn) 28.58 16.05 28.03

Outstanding Forward Volume (US$ mn) ( As at 13 Mar 2014 ) 964.50 922.56 1,000.77

*Commercial Bank Avg. Middle Rate (prevailing at 9.30a.m.)

**Central Bank purchases and sales of foreign exchange from commercial banks at market rates total for the Month

(1) Central Bank indicative rate (2) Weekly average based on actual transactions.

2013* 2012

Jan - Dec Jan - DecTourist Arrivals 153,918 122,252 1,274,593 1,005,605 26.7

Earnings from Tourism US$ Mn. 169.3 (a) 133.5 1,402.1 (a) 1,038.7 35.0Rs.bn. 22.2 (a) 17.1 181.2 (a) 132.4 36.8

Workers' Remittances (Inflows) US$ Mn. 622.5 (b) 553.2 6,621.1 (b) 5,985.3 10.6Rs. bn. 81.4 (b) 71.0 855.3 (b) 764.0 12.0

(a) Provisional (b) Revised

Yen

Euro

INR(1)

Central Bank purchases and sales**

(US$ Mn. )Purchases

SDR

(Rs Per Unit)*

US$

STG

Average RateItem Week Ending - March 14

Forward Transactions

Sales

Dec

2012Item Dec 2013 % Change

80

120

160

200

240

J/11

AJy O

J/12 AJ

y O

J/13 A

Rate

Month End

STGUS$

Months

4.1 Exchange Rates

4.2 Tourism & Workers' Remittances

80240400560720880

1040

1200

J F M A M J Jy A S O N DNoofarrivals'00

0

Tourist Arrivals Cumulative

2012

2013

Month

200

300

400

500

600700

800


US$Mn

Private Remittances - Inflows

20132012

Month

Page 14


16/17

Official Reserve Assets(b) 7,005.11(c)

(1) Foreign currency reserves 6,001.30 (a) Securities 3,287.28

(b) Total currency and deposits with 2,714.02

(i) other national central banks 957.24

1,756.78

(2) Reserve position in the IMF 73.47

(3) SDRs 15.50

(4) Gold 913.87

(5) Other reserve assets 0.98

Up to1

month

More than 1

and up to 3

months

More than 3

months and up to

1 year

Principal -3,212.31 -177.40 -401.13 -2,633.78

Interest -1,252.41 -44.37 -255.37 -952.67

Principal

Interest

-2,063.00 -212.87 -147.00 -1,703.13

819.37 819.37

819.46 819.46

-0.09 -0.09

a rov s ona

(b) Including the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) balances

(c) By end November 2013, the total level of foreign reserves were equivalent to 5.6 months of imports and gross official

reserves were equivalent to 4.7 months of imports

(d) This mainly includes only the predetermined outflows

(e) A major share of SWAP outstanding will be rolled over.This mainly includes SWAP arrangements with state banks

which mobilised long-term foreign finance from international bond issuances.

Predetermined Short-Term Net Drains on Foreign Currency Assets(d)

Official Reserve Assets (USD mn)

(ii) banks headquartered outside the reporting country

other accounts payable ()

2. Aggregate short and long positions in forwards and

futures in foreign currencies vis--vis the domestic currency

(including the forward leg of currency swaps)

(a) Short positions ()(e)

(b) Long positions (+)

3. Other (specify)

inflows related to reverse repos (+)

Item Total

Maturity breakdown (residual maturity)

1. Foreign currency loans, securities, and deposits

outflows ()

inflows (+)

4.3 International Reserves & Foreign Currency Liquidity as at 30 November 2013(a)

Page 15


17/17

Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec

2013 2012 2013 2012

Exports 10.4 9.8 6.3 1,343.0 1,245.5 7.8

Agricultural 2.6 2.3 10.7 333.9 297.7 12.2

Industrial 7.7 7.4 5.0 1,000.7 938.8 6.6

Food, Beverages and Tobacco 0.2 0.3 -17.3 30.4 36.3 -16.2

Textiles and Apparel 4.5 4.0 13.0 583.0 508.6 14.6

Petroleum Products 0.4 0.5 -7.6 55.1 58.9 -6.4

Leather, Rubber etc 1.0 0.9 5.4 124.7 116.5 7.0

Other 1.6 1.7 -6.5 207.4 218.4 -5.0

Mineral 0.1 0.1 -15.9 6.7 7.8 -14.1

Other 0.0 0.0 26.6 1.6 1.2 29.2

Imports 18.0 19.2 -6.2 2,322.7 2,441.9 -4.9

Consumer Goods 3.2 3.0 6.3 411.0 381.0 7.9

Intermediate Goods 10.6 11.6 -8.9 1,361.3 1,474.5 -7.7

Investment Goods 4.3 4.6 -7.3 548.6 582.9 -5.9

Other 0.0 0.0 -50.0 1.8 3.5 -48.2

Trade Balance -7.6 -9.4 19.2 -979.7 -1,196.3 18.1

2013**

December

Total Exports

Value 137.5 143.6 121.2

Quantity 116.2 121.5 103.1

Unit Value 118.3 118.2 117.6

Total Imports

Value 138.8 140.5 136.0

Quantity 124.3 131.9 121.3

Unit Value 111.6 106.5 112.2

Terms of Trade 106.0 111.0 104.8

* In US$ Terms ** Provisional

Dec Dec Dec Dec

2013 2012 2013 2012

Colombo Auction Price

Tea Prices 3.81 3.30 15.2 497.97 424.06 17.4

Imports (C I F)

Rice 704.00 711.57 -1.1 92,103 91,327 0.8White Sugar 480.75 584.90 -17.8 62,895 75,070 -16.2

Wheat 310.85 381.83 -18.6 40,668 49,007 -17.0

Crude Oil 112.13 114.25 -1.9 14,670 14,664 0.0

US$ / MT Rs / MT

US$ / Barrel Rs / Barrel

US$ / Kg Rs / Kg

% Change % Change

Month

AgoItem

Year

Ago

Item

Item

US$ Bn Rs Bn

% Change % Change

68

88

108

128


IndexValue

TRADE INDICES Termsof Trade (2010=100)

2012

Months

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

J M M Jy S N

US$Mn

Exports

2012

Months

0250050007500

100001250015000175002000022500

J M M Jy S N

US$Mn

Imports

20122013

Months

4.4 External Trade

4.5 Trade Indices (2010= 100 )

4.6 International Commodity Prices

300

350

400

450

500

550

J M M Jy S N

Rs./Kg.

Tea Prices(Imported)

20122013

Months

60

80

100

120


Rs./Kg.

Rice rices(Imported)

2012

Months

9

12

15

18


Rs'00

0./Barrel.

Crude Oil (Imported)

20122013

Months

Documents

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS - 20140314