Weekly_180415

April 18, 2015

For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946

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Trading for the concluded week began on an optimistic note

on Monday. Subsequently, the Nifty gently advanced during

the session and extended the previous week's bounce with the

Nifty surging beyond the 8800 8800 8800 8800 8800 mark. This was followed by yet

another positive start on Wednesday; but the gains were short

lived as we witnessed a complete nosedive during the latter

half of the day. The Nifty continued to trade with a negative

bias during the remaining part of the week and as a result, it

eventually closed just a tad above the 8600 8600 8600 8600 8600 mark. During the

week, the Banking, IT, Capital Goods and Healthcare sectors

witnessed a decent correction; whereas the Oil & Gas and

FMCG counters managed to close in the green. The Nifty ended

the concluded week with a cut of 1.99% over the previous week's

closing.

Pattern formation: The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at

28305 / 8560 28305 / 8560 28305 / 8560 28305 / 8560 28305 / 8560 and 25055 / 7526 25055 / 7526 25055 / 7526 25055 / 7526 25055 / 7526 levels, respectively.

The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at28568 / 8668 28568 / 8668 28568 / 8668 28568 / 8668 28568 / 8668 and 28295 / 8547 28295 / 8547 28295 / 8547 28295 / 8547 28295 / 8547 levels, respectively.

Future outlook

On Wednesday, the Nifty finally snapped its rally over nine

straight days from the low of 8269.158269.158269.158269.158269.15 (March 27, 2015). In

our previous report, we had clearly expressed that the Nifty

would undergo some discomfort beyond the 86508650865086508650 mark. We

had advised to use the recent rally to lighten up long positions

as the Nifty was nearing a strong resistance zone of

8850 - 89008850 - 89008850 - 89008850 - 89008850 - 8900. The weekly chart now depicts a 'Bearish Engulfing'

pattern around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the

fall from 9119.20 9119.20 9119.20 9119.20 9119.20 to 8269.158269.158269.158269.158269.15. Generally, this pattern holds

significance only when it occurs after a sharp rally; in this case,

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Corrective phase likely to continue

Sensex (28442) / Nifty (8606)

it has occurred merely after a rally of two weeks. But we would

still give some weightage to it as it is placed around important

retracement levels. This price development has now applied

brakes on the recent bounce and hence, has increased the

possibility of forming a 'Lower Top' on the weekly chart, which

does not bode well for the bulls. Going forward, last to last

week's low of 8573 8573 8573 8573 8573 would now be seen as a crucial point for

the Nifty. A sustainable move below this level may trigger further

correction towards 8450 - 8400 8450 - 8400 8450 - 8400 8450 - 8400 8450 - 8400 levels. On the flipside,

8700 - 8760 8700 - 8760 8700 - 8760 8700 - 8760 8700 - 8760 are now seen as immediate resistance levels.

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart

April 18, 2015


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Technical Research Team

Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS

27,956 28,199 28,647 28,890 29,338

8,434 8,520 8,683 8,768 8,931

17,852 18,099 18,569 18,815 19,285

1,414 1,468 1,559 1,612 1,703

235 241 252 257 268

776 796 831 851 886

505 519 546 561 588

1,998 2,032 2,074 2,107 2,149

169 173 177 181 185

221 228 236 243 251

769 783 806 821 843

389 398 412 421 435

212 221 230 240 249

645 663 690 708 735

368 374 385 391 402

3,504 3,576 3,692 3,763 3,879

374 381 392 400 410

3,504 3,576 3,701 3,773 3,898

906 923 951 968 996

995 1,007 1,028 1,039 1,060

1,264 1,286 1,301 1,322 1,337

2,248 2,329 2,464 2,545 2,680

132 136 139 143 146

903 920 936 953 968

300 305 314 319 328

189 193 198 203 208

160 164 171 175 182

812 844 905 938 999

2,101 2,140 2,193 2,232 2,284

338 345 352 359 366

1,308 1,348 1,411 1,450 1,514

1,673 1,707 1,763 1,796 1,853

1,577 1,674 1,836 1,932 2,094

1,155 1,190 1,236 1,271 1,318

3,578 3,612 3,671 3,705 3,763

129 131 135 138 142

151 155 157 160 162

302 316 324 339 347

143 146 151 155 160

154 159 165 169 175

878 902 923 948 969

192 202 207 217 222

278 285 290 297 302

943 991 1,076 1,123 1,209

2,309 2,392 2,553 2,636 2,797

515 525 544 555 574

77 79 81 82 84

325 336 344 354 363

610 625 650 666 690

2,646 2,728 2,879 2,960 3,111

558 573 599 613 640

769 789 827 847 884

323 330 340 347 358

S2S2S2S2S2 S1 S1 S1 S1 S1 PIVPIVPIVPIVPIVOOOOOTTTTT R1R1R1R1R1 R2R2R2R2R2

SENSEX

NIFTY

BANKNIFTY

ACC

AMBUJACEM

ASIANPAINT

AXISBANK

BAJAJ-AUTO

BANKBARODA

BHEL

BPCL

BHARTIARTL

CAIRN

CIPLA

COALINDIA

DRREDDY

GAIL

GRASIM

HCLTECH

HDFCBANK

HDFC

HEROMOTOCO

HINDALCO

HINDUNILVR

ICICIBANK

IDEA

IDFC

INDUSINDBK

INFY

ITC

KOTAKBANK

LT

LUPIN

M&M

MARUTI

NMDC

NTPC

ONGC

POWERGRID

PNB

RELIANCE

SSLT

SBIN

SUNPHARMA

TCS

TATAMOTORS

TATAPOWER

TATASTEEL

TECHM

ULTRACEMCO

WIPRO

YESBANK

ZEEL

April 18, 2015


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BUY 25 NIFTY 8600 APR PE 80.00

SELL 50 NIFTY 8400 APR PE 30.00

Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |

FII's are forming fresh short positions; be cautious

Nifty spot closed at 8606.00 8606.00 8606.00 8606.00 8606.00 this week against a close of 8780.35 8780.35 8780.35 8780.35 8780.35 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.081.081.081.081.08 to 0.970.970.970.970.97

levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 10.72%10.72%10.72%10.72%10.72%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 8.11%8.11%8.11%8.11%8.11%.

Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis

PCR-OI has decreased from 1.08 to 0.97 levels mainly due to

open interest addition in call options. Huge buildup was visible

in 8700-9100 call options last week which are long positions.

On the other hand in put options 8600 strike price added good

amount of buildup followed by unwinding in 8400 put option.

Maximum buildup in current series is seen in 9000 call & 8500

put options.

Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased from 12.34%.to

14.97%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 16.83% and

that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 26.45%. Liquid counters having

very high HV are BHARATFORG, LUPIN, INDUSINDBK, TCS

and SIEMENS. Stocks where HV are on lower side are

POWERGRID, IFCI, HDFC, JPPOWER and RELCAPITAL.

Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 32.85 points

against the premium of 31.10 points to its spot. Next month

future is trading with premium of 84.15 points. Liquid counters

where CoC is high are POWERGRID, COLPAL, HDIL,

COALINDIA and PTC. Stocks with negative CoC are

GODREJIND, PETRONET, KOTAKBANK, SAIL and CANBK.

Total open interest of market has increased from

`2,12,776/- cr. to `2,30,140/- cr. Stock futures open interest

has increased from `68,364/- cr. to `68,717/- cr. Liquid

counters names which added significant positions last week

are GAIL, AMBUJACEM, HEROMOTOCO, TCS and LUPIN. On

the other hand unwinding was visible in counters like ITC,

TATAPOWER, DRREDDY, SSLT and SBIN.

Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis

Scrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTY CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP : ` ` ` ` `8606.008606.008606.008606.008606.00 LLLLLot Size : 25ot Size : 25ot Size : 25ot Size : 25ot Size : 25 Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : 30th. Apr 2015

Expected PayoffView: Mildly Bearish

8170

8270

8370

8470

8570

8670

LBEPLBEPLBEPLBEPLBEP ----- `````8220/-8220/-8220/-8220/-8220/-UBEPUBEPUBEPUBEPUBEP ----- `````8580/-8580/-8580/-8580/-8580/-

Max. Risk: Max. Risk: Max. Risk: Max. Risk: Max. Risk: Unlimited Max. PMax. PMax. PMax. PMax. Profit: rofit: rofit: rofit: rofit: `4,500/-If NIFTY continues to move below LBEP. If NIFTY closes at 8400 level on expiry.

NONONONONOTETETETETE::::: Profit can be booked before expiry if NIFTY moves in favorable direction and time value decays.

Strategy: Ratio Bear Put Spread

Buy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/Sell QtyQtyQtyQtyQty ScripScripScripScripScrip StrikeStrikeStrikeStrikeStrike SeriesSeriesSeriesSeriesSeries OptionOptionOptionOptionOption Buy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RatePPPPPricericericericerice TTTTTypeypeypeypeype (((((`````)))))

Closing PClosing PClosing PClosing PClosing Pricericericericerice ExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedExpected ( ( ( ( (`````))))) PPPPProfit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lossossossossoss

(`50.00)

`50.00

`150.00

`110.00

`10.00

(`20.00)

Derivative Strategy

Weekly

RRRRRatings (Based on expected returnsatings (Based on expected returnsatings (Based on expected returnsatings (Based on expected returnsatings (Based on expected returns Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)over 12 months investment period):over 12 months investment period):over 12 months investment period):over 12 months investment period):over 12 months investment period): Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15

Disclaimer

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Weekly_180415