WHAT IS GOING ON IN KADUNA?

WHAT IS GOING ON IN

KADUNA?

JULY 2020

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DISCLAIMER

The data contained in this report is only up-to-date as at Saturday, 25 July 2020. Some of it is subject to change during the natural course of events. SB Morgen cannot accept liability in respect of any errors or omissions that may follow such events that may invalidate data contained herein.

Our researchers employed methods such as one-on-one interviews and desk research to collate the available data. Our editors sifted through the data and prepared the report, using various proprietary tools to fact-check and copy edit the information gathered.

Our publicly released reports are formatted for easy and quick reading, and may not necessarily contain all the data that SB Morgen gathered during a given survey. Complete datasets can be made available on request.

On 17 July 2020, Dorcas Shagari (3) and Faith Shagari (6) were killed alongside their 25-year old mother, Gloria, in Doka Avong, in Kajuru Local Government Area of Kaduna State. Also killed with the Shagaris was 40-year old Hussani Danda. Six days later, seven people were killed in the same village: Mallam Albarka (85), John Mallam (80), Jumare Sule (76), Daniel Mukardas (70), Hannatu Garba (55), Livinus Danmori (52) and Thaddeus Albarka (32), who refused to leave his 85-year old father's side.

The year 2020 has been a truly difficult year for residents of Southern Kaduna. As of the morning of 25 July 2020, this year has seen 83 distinct incidents in the state, which have claimed at least 511 lives. Aside from the obvious economic and social consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, the area has continued to experience incessant violence, killings, and displacement of residents. The violence in Southern Kaduna is deeply rooted in what the government says is “...an evil combination of politically-motivated banditry, revenge killings and mutual violence by criminal gangs acting on ethnic and religious grounds.”

Despite enjoying robust security deployments, including Special Forces of the Nigerian Army, surveillance aircraft by the Nigerian Air Force and mobile police units scattered across the region on a 24-hour basis aimed to quell such violence, there appears to be little hope that the violence would cease.

In the past month, Kajuru Local Government Area of Kaduna State has been a hotbed of violence, with at least three attacks on Adara communities by suspected Fulani militias, killing scores of people and displacing hundreds, and increasing the level of insecurity in the region. This is not the first time that violence has erupted in the area. In October 2018, the paramount ruler of the Adara Chiefdom, Agwom Adara Maiwada Galadima was kidnapped alongside his wife on his way back from a meeting with the state governor, Nasir el-Rufai. The kidnapping occurred against the backdrop of tensions following the proposal by the state governor to convert the chiefdom to an emirate. In between the already existing tension and the disappearance of Mr Galadima, who was later found dead, the local government area which lies just south of Kaduna City erupted in ethno-religious violence that later spilt into the state capital.

1Nextier SPD: Presidency: Kaduna Killings Fuelled by Politics, Revenge - https://bit.ly/2CKOeHn 2ThisDay: Traditional Ruler, Wife Abducted in Kaduna - https://bit.ly/39ASUeY

JULY 2020 I WHAT IS GOING ON IN KADUNA ?

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So what really is happening in Kajuru?

The answer to this question depends on who you ask. The Adara ethnic group describes these attacks as a 'targeted, systematic genocide aimed at displacing locals and taking over the lands through forced occupation' with their fingers pointing at Fulani militias as the culprits. They also believe that these militias have the backing of the state government implicitly or explicitly. They continually report about how after villages have been attacked and the people displaced, Fulani herders and their families move into those villages.

The state government, on the other hand, has continually described these attacks as 'communal clashes', sometimes even taking the media to see Fulani communities allegedly sacked by Adara militias, emphasising that the attacks on the Adara communities are revenge killings.

This difference in narratives between the two sides is very crucial as it affects how the recurring violence is addressed. The Adara communities are of the opinion that this is strictly a law enforcement issue – having security agents be proactive in preventing attacks and to react quickly in apprehending perpetrators of the violence, irrespective of who they may be. On the other hand, the state government approaches it as both a law-enforcement and political issue – where it has tried to broker peace between the two sides.

There is a third angle to the crisis. Following the claim of some security operatives and eyewitnesses, some of the violence experienced by residents of southern Kaduna is a result of conflicts between farmers and cattle herders, who are often categorised with the Fulani ethnic militia. The cattle herders, being a nomadic group, have been accused of preying on the farmland and produce of villagers, which often ends in a series of attacks and counter attacks. The herders, on the other hand, have levied accusations of cattle rustling on villagers. This tussle for resources, and in this case vegetation for cattle and farming space, is not unconnected with the problem of desertification in northern Nigeria, a consequence of climate change and a problem Nigeria is yet to address thoroughly.


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3 Punch: Herdsmen, farmers clashes kill 33 in Kaduna - https://bit.ly/3hJgLM2 4 Bashir, A. M., Azlizan, T., & BtYusof, R. (2018). Cattle rustling in Kaduna State, Nigeria: An assessment of the existing preventive approaches. International Journal of Management Research and Reviews, 8(9), 20.

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In addition to all of the above, an SBM analysis of the violent incidents in Kajuru going back to 2008 as well as eyewitness accounts shows a clear rise in attacks during the rainy season, which typically lasts from late March to early November.

Data: SBM Intelligence

Sources on the ground say this is due to the ample protection which the lush vegetation which abounds in Kajuru and neighbouring LGAs provide during this time of the year as well as the onset of the primary farming season which increases the likelihood of violent confrontations between settler farmers and herders.

Date

Fata

litie

s

Rainy season fatalities (2008 t0 2020)


Date

0

25

Fata

litie

s

50

75

100

125

Dry season fatalities (2008 to 2020)

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A Historical Look at the Problem

The violence and tension in Kajuru is part of a very long history of animosity between the Hausa--Fulani ethnic groups that dominate the northern parts of what is now Kaduna State, and the multi-ethnic southern part of the state. The acrimony among these groups dates back to pre-colonial times, with the Zazzau Emirate (headquartered in Zaria), which was created after the Fulani Jihad of 1804, raiding the then-animist ethnic groups looking to capture slaves; however, the southern region of Kaduna was never conquered. Following the indirect rule adopted by British colonial authorities, the region was put under the administrative control of first the Zazzau Emirate and then a newly-created Jema'a Emirate situated in Kafanchan, which is the largest town in the state. In addition, the colonial administration had in its employ more Hausa and Fulani people, a predominantly Muslim group, and this further exacerbated the animosity between them and the locals, who at this time had become predominantly Christian.

In light of the cultural and religious dynamics at play, the tension in Southern Kaduna has taken several dimensions: from socio-cultural to ethno-religious. This tension has also taken a political dimension, with people from Southern Kaduna feeling marginalised in employment, education, and appointment The state opportunities on grounds of their ethnicity and religion. governor, Nasiru El-Rufai, had pledged in 2016 to address these concerns by ensuring equal opportunity for all.

Two major riots broke out in the region: in 1987, an ethno-religious riot started from a college of education in Kafanchan and almost engulfed the whole state, while the relocation of a market in the town of Zangon-Kataf in 1992 sparked a conflict between the Hausa-Fulani traders and the Atyap people and spread all the way to Kaduna city and beyond. The 1992 riots caused a watershed in ethno-religious relations in Southern Kaduna and Kaduna State as a whole, as a panel investigating it rightly identified the long-standing tensions in the region as a remote cause of the violence. As a result, chiefdoms for the various ethnicities in the region, besides the Emir of Jema'a, were created. However, this has not stopped communal clashes in the state as the tensions have remained and even increased. In the year 2000, when the Sharia penal code was introduced by the Kaduna State Government, it led to riots that killed over 1000 people; in November 2003, as Nigeria played host to the Miss World beauty contest, a riot

7 ThisDay: Understanding the Southern Kaduna Crisis - https://bit.ly/3jMQ8aX 8 Punch: SSS 2 girl, five others killed in Southern Kaduna attack - https://bit.ly/3hJho8m

5 Haliru Sirajo. (2012). Districts to Local Government Areas: A History of Administration of Northern Districts of Zazzau 6 Emirate 1902-1976" Journal of the Historical Society of Nigeria Vol. 21, pp. 189-195 Vanguard: El-Rufa'i pledges equal opportunity to all - https://bit.ly/39Bmm49


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presumably triggered by Muslim outrage at Nigeria's role in playing host for the event, led to 58 churches being attacked and the death of almost 500 people in Kaduna City.

This convoluted history among the ethnic groups makes Kaduna state a tension-laden and violence-prone. The post-election riots of 2011 which engulfed most of the Southern Kaduna region was another difficult period in the area, and which also informed the basis of several attacks on indigenous communities as revenge over the loss of lives and cattle, as found out by another government panel looking into the violence. The specific part of the region suffering from attacks has also changed from time to time – between 2016 and 2017 Kafanchan, Kaura and Zangon-Kataf LGAs witnessed several attacks, after which attacks became frequent in Sanga and Kajuru LGAs from 2018 to date.

So why has the government been unable to put a stop to these attacks?

The answer to this question is as complicated as it is obvious. Given the insecurity across the country, the Nigerian security services appear stretched and overwhelmed, showing a lack of capacity to implement preventive and punitive measures. With the country's porous borders, the government has been unable to properly check the inflow of illegal small arms and light weapons mostly used in these attacks.

The answer to this question is as complicated as it is obvious. Given the insecurity across the country, the Nigerian security services appear stretched and overwhelmed, showing a lack of capacity to implement preventive and punitive measures. With the country's porous borders, the government has been unable to properly check the inflow of illegal small arms and light weapons mostly used in these attacks.

9 Punch: IG's alarm on police strength, funding - https://bit.ly/2wKni7A10 Africa Renewal: Security for the highest bidder - https://bit.ly/30Spsgu11 Sahara Reporters: 80 percent Of Our Policemen Are Deployed To Protect Politicians And VIPS, Says Nigeria Police Chief - https://bit.ly/3eqJ15h

In addition, Nigeria is a severely under-policed country – its 301,737 police officers give a ratio of approximately 1 police officer to 666 Nigerians, far below the United Nations recommendation of 1 to 450. Even with the country being under-policed, four out of five policemen are estimated to be providing security for VIPs. Rural areas get the short end of the stick when it comes to sufficient policing, with very few policemen and women over large swathes of land, making it difficult to track and arrest the organizations or individuals involved in violent crimes and attacks across the country The consequence of this is that justice is not served to victims, which further sows strife among the communities and emboldens the attackers to continue.

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Kaduna state has a heavy military presence, and is home to the Nigerian Defense Academy (NDA), a division of the Nigerian Army, a Nigerian Airforce Base and Training Command, and at least six other known military installations. It also boasts significant military and police deployment in many of the affected areas, yet these attacks persist. This indicates that the Nigerian military, with a strength of 6,000 officers and 150,000 soldiers, is overly stretched and its personnel are fatigued. At the moment, the Nigerian military is fighting a war against insurgency in the North East, banditry in parts of the North West, piracy and militancy in the South-South. In addition to this, military personnel are also deployed across the country to man checkpoints in support of the police, and as of the end of last year, were in 35 of the country's 36 states.

Kaduna is situated in Nigeria's wild North-West geopolitical zone, a region which Ansaru, a splinter Boko Haram faction has sought to control. Ansaru's inability to replicate Boko Haram's successes in the North West, due to a crackdown on the group by Nigeria's domestic intelligence agency and partly due to operational and leadership challenges, has allowed various groups to fight for territory in the region. The Boko Haram faction led by Abubakar Shekau is also making a play for the region and has recently created terror cells in Zamfara and Katsina states. On Saturday 19th July, a bomb explosion in Yammama Village, a few kilometres from Malumfashi, Katsina State killed at least six children and left many others injured. A Major, 2 other officers and 17 soldiers killed with several others injured by terrorists in Jibia LGA in Katsina State. The incident occurred shortly after an explosion killed at least 5 children in the same state. Although yet to be acknowledged publicly by government officials, these twin attacks are indications that a terror group greater than mere bandits with equal firepower and strength to take on the Nigerian state. This may as well point to Boko Haram.

Of equal importance is a lack of consequences on perpetrators of past violence, further emboldening reprisal attacks from the previous victims or repeat violence from these past perpetrators. This creates a vicious cycle of ever-escalating violence.

The violence in the area threatens the economic stability in a region sustained by agriculture. Security reports show that the violence is in Southern Kaduna is partly due to a clash between militant herders and farmers, which raises lots of concerns about the effects of climate change and the struggle for limited resources in northern Nigeria. A largely agrarian Southern Kaduna under frequent outbreaks of violence spells great danger for the region. Kaduna rivals Kano as the economic nerve centre of the North West and is the gateway to the


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North Central, and as such, continued violence would have great impacts on the region.

Understanding the complexities of the problem has motivated several government interventions including the Kafanchan Peace Declaration, a peace accord established in 2016 with five local government areas as signatories in the southern Kaduna --Sanga, Kachia, Kaura, Zangon Kataf and Jema'a. This peace declaration was facilitated by the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and had participants from community, women, youth, religious, and cultural associations, an acknowledgment to the multifaceted nature of the problem. However, Kajuru was not a part of this accord and the violence in the region does not appear to be diminishing.

12 Humangle: Nigeria's Terror King, Shekau, Connects East, West And Centre In A Puzzling Agenda - https://bit.ly/3f1rLmk 13 The Kafanchan Peace Declaration (2016). Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue - https://bit.ly/2CXkk2t


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Appendix: Events in Kaduna state in 2020

Date Alleged Perpetrator LGA Location Fatalities

1/6/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Chikun Buruku 2

1/6/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Birnin-Gwari Birnin Gwari 7

1/6/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Chikun Chikun 7

1/6/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Chikun Zankoro 7

1/6/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Chikun Badna 7

1/6/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Chikun Rumana 7

1/9/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Birnin-Gwari Birnin Gwari 4

1/15/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Kaduna North Kaduna 6

1/17/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Zango-Kataf Gora 2

1/24/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Chikun Juji 1

2/3/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Birnin-Gwari Kakangi 6

2/5/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Kaura Zankan 3

2/5/2020 Police Forces of Nigeria (2015-) Birnin-Gwari Birnin Gwari 3


2/11/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Giwa Fatika 16

2/12/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Kajuru Maro 7

2/21/2020 Military Forces of Nigeria (2015-) Giwa Giwa 40

3/1/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Igabi Kerawa 12

3/1/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Igabi Igabi 13

3/1/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Ikara Zariyawa 13

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3/1/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Giwa Ungwan Barau 13

3/3/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Zangan Kataf Madakiya 2


3/11/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kaura Kaura 2

3/17/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Chikun Kajari 1

3/17/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Chikun Kugosi 2

3/17/2020 Military Forces of Nigeria (2015-) Giwa Kuduru Hill 8

3/17/2020 Military Forces of Nigeria (2015-) Giwa Giwa 9

3/18/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Chikun Manini 2

3/22/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kajuru Afogo 1

3/25/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Kajuru Maro 3

3/25/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Kajuru Bakira 3

3/26/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Giwa Kujuru 3

3/26/2020 Bakira Communal Militia (Nigeria) Kajuru Iburu 14

3/30/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Jema'a Jagindi 2


3/31/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Chikun Chikun 6

4/16/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Chikun Pa 1

4/16/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kachia Maigoro 2

4/19/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kachia Kachia 2

4/19/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kauru Kamaru 6

4/24/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Chikun Gwagwada 2

4/24/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kajuru Kajuru 2

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5/1/2020 Buruku Communal Militia (Nigeria) Chikun Buruku 4

5/4/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Chikun Danhono 1

5/7/2020 Military Forces of Nigeria (2015-) Chikun Gwagwada 5

5/7/2020 Military Forces of Nigeria (2015-) Chikun Damba 6

5/7/2020 Military Forces of Nigeria (2015-) Chikun Kaboresha 6

5/12/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kajuru Doka 1

5/12/2020 Unidentified Armed Group (Nigeria) Kaduna North Kaduna 3

5/12/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kajuru Kajuru 15

5/13/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kajuru Makyali 7

5/18/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kajuru Gefe 2

5/18/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kajuru Kallah 2

5/18/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kajuru Libere 2










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5/25/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Zango-Kataf

Idazau, Etissi,

Bakin Kogi, Dutsen

Gora, UN Gora,

Pushu Kallah and

Magunguna 5

6/3/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kajuru Tudu 9

6/4/2020 Military Forces of Nigeria (2015-) Chikun Gidan Makeri 70

6/4/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Chikun Goni Gora 0

6/7/2020 Military Forces of Nigeria (2015-) Birnin-Gwari Birnin-Gwari 2

6/8/2020

Unidentified Armed Group

(Nigeria) Kajuru Doka, Kallah 4

6/21/2020 Military Forces of Nigeria (2015-)

Kwauya-

Tsamiya Kwauya-Tsamiya 0

7/7/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kajuru Mararaban 1

7/11/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kaura Chibuak 20

7/11/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria)

Kaduna

South Damakasuwa 0

7/19/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Kaura Kukum Daji 19

7/20/2020 Fulani Ethnic Militia (Nigeria) Zango-Kataf Gora Gan 11

7/21/2020

Unidentified Armed Group

(Nigeria) Kaura Fari 3

Sources: SBM Intelligence, ACLED

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About SBM

SBM Intel is an Africa focused geopolitical research and strategic communications consulting firm focused on addressing the critical need for political, social, economic and market data, and big data analytics. We employ various methods of data collection. Our Data Collection Methodology team advises on data collection methods for all ONS social and business surveys. With clients both within the business and the wider government community, we aim to provide expert advice on data collection procedures and carry out research leading to improvements in survey quality.

Since 2013, we have provided data analytics and strategic communication solutions to clients across various sectors in Nigeria, Ghana, the Ivory Coast, Kenya, South Africa, the UK, France and the United States.

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WHAT IS GOING ON IN KADUNA?