Why the 2017 Kenyan General Election is Almost Over Already

Charles Hornsby

13 September 2016

v.5

Disclaimers• This analysis is prepared for the purpose of understanding, not to imply any

endorsement of Jubilee (or otherwise).

• It is a personal opinion, not associated with or financed by any political party, lobby group or government

• It excludes exceptional circumstances such as catastrophe, sudden death of senior politician etc.

• Please do reference me if you use it, as you can only imagine how long this took

Argument

• The political landscape has simplified and turned decisively against ODM/CORD since 2013.

• For whatever reason, numerous elected MPs from other political parties have decided that the Jubilee Alliance, then the Jubilee Alliance Party, now the Jubilee Party, is the answer.

• While they do not always represent the views of their constituents, they certainly take account of them and to varying extents can influence them when they make decisions to change parties.

• Conclusion: The recent launch and associated defections shows that-barring extraordinary events – Jubilee has won the 2017 election

Methodology – a Visual Display over Time

• Each “square” indicates one parliamentary constituency for a elected MP

• Each “province” (Coast, Central etc.) is shown separately for clarity

• Each constituency is coloured by the political alignment of the MP.

• Alliances e.g. ODM-Wiper (CORD) have similar colours.

• Senators, Governors and elected Women's Representatives are not shown, but the pattern is similar.

• Source of information – the press

North-

Eastern

Western

Nyanza

Rift

ValleyEastern

Central

Nairobi

Coast

KENYA 2013-17 - One "square" is one parliamentary constituency

Rift Valley

Western

Central Eastern

Nairobi

Nyanza

Coast

North-

Eastern

THE PROVINCIAL LANDSCAPE, EXPLODED

Rift Valley

Western

Central

Nairobi

Nyanza

Coast

Eastern

Eastern

North-

THE COUNTY LANDSCAPE, 2013

Rift Valley

Trans-Nz Pokot Marsabit

UasElg-

Marin Kirin Meru

Nan Gis yaga

Busdi hu Th-Nithi

ia Nya

ndarua

Ker

icho Kitui Lamu

Tana

Kajiado

Nya Kwa

mira le

Machakos

Western

Vihiga

Kakamega

Bungoma

Coast

Migori Kisii

NarokNairobi

Nyanza

Taita-Tav

Mombasa

Kilifi

Murang'a

Kiambu

Nakuru

Garissa

Kisumu

SiayaHoma Bay

Bomet Makueni

Nairobi

Embu

Central Isiolo

Wajir

Baringo Nyeri

Laikipia

North-East

Eastern Mandera

Turkana Samburu

Stages in the Story

• Slide 1 shows the elected MPs in March 2013, by the party they were elected on

• Slide 2 shows the (modest)effect of the various by-elections since then.

• Slide 3 shows where MPs defected to other parties during 2013-August 2016. Few are formal defections (to avoid losing their seats) but all were public. They are non-binding but few have changed their minds yet.

• Slide 4 shows the state of play after the 9-10 September dissolution of the 11 constituent parties of the new Jubilee Party. A few MPs may not go with their party in the end (but only 1 has formally said he would not).

• Slide 5 shows the impact of the new “killer” defections announced by Jubilee during their inaugural conference

ELECTED CONSTITUENCY MPS: 4 March 2013

Key to Parties

I K

Trans-Nz Marsabit URP UDF

N FK Laikipia TNA K KANU

FK FK FK UasElg-

MarK N I N NARC N New FORD-K

Bungoma FKin Kirin Meru A APK

N N I Nan Gis yaga A A A

Bus N Mdi hu A A Th-Nithi Garissa ODM

ia Nya

ndaN N Wiper

K K rua A C CCU

FPK Ker K C C FK FORD-K

FK PDP icho Machakos Kitui Lamu M Muungano

FK FP Tana K T TIP

M T PDP People's Dem. Pty

Nairobi FPK KA

Kajiado I K KNC KA KADU-Asili

K FK FP Ford-P M Mandeleo

Nya Kwa Mombasa FPK Fed Party NK NARC-Kenya

FK FP FP NK mira le I Ind

K

Mandera

Kilifi

Taita-Tav

Migori

Homa BaySiaya

Kisii

Samburu

Narok

Baringo

Bomet

Kakamega

Pokot Turkana

Wajir

Nakuru

Kisumu

Vihiga

Isiolo

Makueni

Kiambu

Murang'a

Nyeri

Embu

ELECTED CONSTITUENCY MPs: After By-elections 2013-16

Key to Parties

I K JAP

Trans-Nz Marsabit URP UDF

N FK Laikipia TNA K KANU

FK FK FK UasElg-

MarK N I N NARC N New FORD-K

Bungoma FKin Kirin Meru A APK

N N I Nan Gis yaga A A A

Bus N Mdi hu A A Th-Nithi Garissa ODM

ia Nya

ndaN N Wiper

K K rua A C CCU

FPK Ker K C C FK FORD-K

FK PDP icho Machakos Kitui Lamu M Muungano

FK FP Tana K T TIP

M T PDP People's Dem. Pty

Nairobi FPK KA

Kajiado K KNC KA KADU-Asili

K FK FP Ford-P M Mandeleo

Nya Kwa Mombasa FPK Fed Party NK NARC-Kenya

FK FP FP NK mira le I Ind

K

Isiolo

Kiambu

Samburu

Mandera

Pokot Turkana

Wajir

Baringo Nyeri

Murang'a

Taita-Tav

Vihiga

Nakuru

Kisumu

SiayaHoma Bay

Bomet Makueni Kilifi

Migori Kisii

Narok

Embu

Kakamega

ELECTED CONSTITUENCY MPs: Adding announced Defections 2013 - Aug 2016

Key to Parties

I JAP/Jubilee

Trans-Nz Marsabit URP UDF

N FK TNA K KANU

FK FK FK UasElg-

MarK N I N NARC N New FORD-K

ANC BungomaFKin Kirin Meru A APK

N N I Nan Gis yaga A A A

Bus N Mdi hu A A Th-Nithi Garissa ODM

ia ANCNya

ndaN N Wiper

ANC K K rua A C CCU

FPK Ker K C C FK FORD-K

FK ANC PDP icho Machakos Kitui Lamu M Muungano

FK FP Tana T TIP

M T PDP People's Dem. Pty

Nairobi KA

Kilifi ANC Amani Nat C MDP Mashinani

Kajiado KA KADU-Asili

MDP FP Ford-P M Mandeleo

Nya Kwa Mombasa FPK Fed Party

FK FP FP mira le I Ind

K

Isiolo

Samburu

Mandera

Pokot Turkana

Laikipia

Wajir

Baringo Nyeri

Murang'a

Embu

Kiambu

Nakuru

Kisumu

Kakamega

Vihiga

Taita-Tav

Kisii

SiayaHoma Bay

Bomet Makueni

Migori

Narok

ELECTED CONSTITUENCY MPs: After Sept 2016 party dissolutions - in theory

Key to Parties

I JAP/Jubilee

Marsabit

FK K KANU

FK FK FK UasElg-

MarK I N NARC

ANC Bung FKin Kirin Meru

I Nan Gis yaga

Bus Mdi hu Garissa ODM

ia ANCNya

ndaN Wiper

ANC K K rua C CCU

FPK Ker K C C FK FORD-K

FK ? ANC PDP icho Machakos Kitui Lamu M Muungano

FK Tana T TIP

M T PDP People's Dem. Pty

Nairobi KA

Kilifi ANC Amani Nat C MDP Mashinani

Kajiado KA KADU-Asili

? MDP M Mandeleo

Nya Kwa Mombasa FPK Fed Party

FK mira le I Ind

K

Taita-Tav

Kisumu

Note this is theoretical - several more MPs from smaller

parties merging may not go with the rest of their party

Trans-NzTurkanaPokot

Samburu

Laikipia

Vihiga

Nakuru

Embu

Th-Nithi

Kisii

Narok

Migori

Mandera

Wajir

SiayaHoma Bay

Bomet Makueni

Isiolo

Kakamega

Baringo Nyeri

Murang'a

Kiambu

ELECTED CONSTITUENCY MPs: After 11 Party Dissolutions and 9-11 September Defections

Key to Parties

Jubilee

Marsabit

K KANU

FK FK FK UasElg-

Mar

ANC Bung FKin Kirin Meru

Nan Gis yaga

Busdi hu Garissa ODM

ia ANCNya

ndaWiper

ANC K rua

FPK Ker FK FORD-K

FK ? ANC PDP icho Machakos Kitui

FK Tana T TIP

T PDP People's Dem. Pty

Nairobi KA

Kilifi ANC Amani Nat C MDP Mashinani

Kajiado KA KADU-Asili

? MDP M Mandeleo

Nya Kwa Mombasa FPK Fed Party

FK mira le

K

Trans-Nz

Laikipia

Kakamega

Mandera

Turkana

Isiolo

Wajir

Embu

Th-Nithi

SamburuPokot

Kiambu

Baringo Nyeri

Murang'a

Migori Kisii

Narok

Taita-Tav

Lamu

Kisumu

Siaya BometHoma Bay Makueni

Vihiga

Nakuru

Conclusions• Jubilee has an huge advantage in the political elite today.

• It is now supported by 2/3 of all MPs

• Outside Luo Nyanza and parts of the Coast, CORD is struggling.

• The election is over in Central and the Rift Valley

• Half Ukambani, Kisii and Coast MPs are now “Jubilee”

• Western is too confused to call.

• More North-Eastern MPs are probably Jubilee that I have been able to confirm

• If this situation was representative of voting intentions (which it is to some extent only, as individual politicians are more susceptible to state blandishments than voters) it would be a 65-35 victory for Jubilee.

• More realistically, barring mass defections or a split in Jubilee, it is looking like something between a 55-45 to a 60-40 win for Uhuru, Ruto and Jubilee.