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Momentum Momentum
Volume 1 Issue 1 Article 19
2012
Wind Energy Development and Theories of Technological Change Wind Energy Development and Theories of Technological Change
Daniel Sholler [email protected]
Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/momentum
Recommended Citation Recommended Citation Sholler, Daniel (2012) "Wind Energy Development and Theories of Technological Change," Momentum: Vol. 1 : Iss. 1 , Article 19. Available at: https://repository.upenn.edu/momentum/vol1/iss1/19
This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/momentum/vol1/iss1/19 For more information, please contact [email protected].
Wind Energy Development and Theories of Technological Change Wind Energy Development and Theories of Technological Change
Abstract Abstract The development of low emission, high output electricity generation systems is a focal point of global efforts to reduce anthropogenic effects of climate change without compromising opportunities for economic and social growth. Applications of wind energy technologies for large-scale production have been effective in meeting electricity demand to varying degrees on the international scale. While the wind energy industry has grown significantly in the United States over the past decade, its contribution to overall production has been limited at both the national and local levels of implementation. Wind technologies‘ incompatibility with the national energy infrastructure is a major barrier to their incorporation into the overall US energy landscape. The current infrastructure was built around coal-fired systems, which have persisted as the primary means of meeting the electricity demand from the nineteenth century onward. Use of wind energy resources is constricted by inconsistencies with traditional development. I use traditional theories of technological change applied to the current electricity system in order to show how wind energy technologies challenge social conceptions of energy production and distribution. Opposition at the community level is often the lethal blow to major wind development projects, as I highlight through a case study of the first proposed offshore wind project in the US. Local interests groups reacting to threats wind farms pose to the town‘s economy, ecosystems, and social welfare are strong forces in the permitting and financing process. Just as national history of energy production influences the ability of wind power to compete with coal-fired electricity, regional histories shape cultural views of relationships between humans, nature, and resource use. Economic concerns arise based on the succession of dominant industries, each change altering the region‘s political and local interest group power hierarchies.
This thesis or dissertation is available in Momentum: https://repository.upenn.edu/momentum/vol1/iss1/19
Wind Energy Development and Theories of Technological Change
Honors Thesis for Science, Technology and Society
University of Pennsylvania
December 2011
Daniel Sholler
Dr. Ann Greene
1
Sholler: Wind Energy Development and Theories of Technological Change
Published by ScholarlyCommons, 2012
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Abstract
The development of low emission, high output electricity generation systems is a focal point of
global efforts to reduce anthropogenic effects of climate change without compromising
opportunities for economic and social growth. Applications of wind energy technologies for
large-scale production have been effective in meeting electricity demand to varying degrees on
the international scale. While the wind energy industry has grown significantly in the United
States over the past decade, its contribution to overall production has been limited at both the
national and local levels of implementation.
Wind technologies‘ incompatibility with the national energy infrastructure is a major
barrier to their incorporation into the overall US energy landscape. The current infrastructure
was built around coal-fired systems, which have persisted as the primary means of meeting the
electricity demand from the nineteenth century onward.
Use of wind energy resources is constricted by inconsistencies with traditional
development. I use traditional theories of technological change applied to the current
electricity system in order to show how wind energy technologies challenge social conceptions
of energy production and distribution. Opposition at the community level is often the lethal
blow to major wind development projects, as I highlight through a case study of the first
proposed offshore wind project in the US. Local interests groups reacting to threats wind
farms pose to the town‘s economy, ecosystems, and social welfare are strong forces in the
permitting and financing process. Just as national history of energy production influences the
ability of wind power to compete with coal-fired electricity, regional histories shape cultural
views of relationships between humans, nature, and resource use. Economic concerns arise
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based on the succession of dominant industries, each change altering the region‘s political and
local interest group power hierarchies.
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Sholler: Wind Energy Development and Theories of Technological Change
Published by ScholarlyCommons, 2012
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Section I—US Energy Outlook
The need for changes in the system of energy production, distribution, and consumption must
be evaluated before addressing the issues that limit the use of wind energy in shifting the fossil
fuel generation paradigm. While technical improvements to mining processes and exploration
techniques raise the possibility of discovering fossil fuel reserves, the US Energy Information
Administration estimates that, at current consumption rates, proven US coal reserves will be
depleted beyond practical use in 250 years.1 Estimates of the number of years remaining for oil
usage are more difficult to project accurately, as the market is dominated by fewer major
players—namely, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)—that have the
institutional capacities to protect their financial interests and promote steady income for their
countries. In addition to the possibility that reserves are being reported with potential price
fluctuations in mind, developing and industrialized nations, including the US, are opening new
reserves using technologies capable of mining below the ocean floor, converting oil sands and
shale gas to usable products, and transporting energy sources from less-exploited areas to
regions with limited access to fossil fuels. The complex task of accounting for these market
characteristics and the industry‘s biases in reporting has resulted in an International Energy
Agency prediction of 40 years; the same estimate has been reported several years in a row.
The 2003 US EIA estimates of natural gas reserves were perhaps the most daunting, setting the
1 Roger Hinrichs and Merlin Kleinbach. Energy: Its Use and the Environment, fourth edition.
Toronto: Thomson Books, 2006, 15.
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depletion time at just nine years.2 In terms of electricity production, this is a concerning
figure: 23-25% of electricity produced in the US each year is from the combustion of natural
gas.3 Even with anticipated gains in efficiency and new methods of extracting and refining
natural gas—which also presents economic barriers to wind power implementation—long-
term, effective solutions to the US energy problem require increased reliance on renewable
energy sources.
Energy Use and Global Environmental Concerns
The slow growth of renewable resource usage, considered in the context of unstable
global fossil fuel reserves, necessitates further study of factors restricting the growth of the
wind energy industry. In addition to depleted reserves, the urgency to mass-produce ―cleaner‖
electricity is a motive for addressing these barriers. Coal-fired electricity generation systems
contribute to growing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an organization founded by the
United Nations to provide comprehensive data and interpretation of findings in climate
science, defines greenhouse gases as ―those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both
natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the
spectrum of thermal infrared radiation emitted by the Earth‘s surface, the atmosphere itself,
and by clouds.‖ By absorbing the sun‘s radiation rather than allowing it to reflect back into the
atmosphere, these gases trap heat within the surface-troposphere system. The ―greenhouse
effect‖ occurs as the concentrations of water vapor, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane,
ozone, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs) increase.
2 Hinrichs & Kleinbach, Energy: Its Use and the Environment, 16.
3 Hinrichs & Kleinnbach, Energy: Its Use and the Environment, 16.
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Rises in greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial era are associated with unprecedented
increases in average global temperatures over the past 50 years , with significant evidence
pointing to anthropogenic causes of melting polar ice caps, glaciers, and snow caps.4
Fossil fuel use has contributed to rising temperatures by increasing atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases. From the beginning of the industrial era to 2000,
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration rose 30%. The danger of utilizing fossil fuel
combustion for electricity generation is well-established—the IPCC definitively identifies
anthropogenic emissions as the cause of the carbon dioxide increase and used its properties as
the standard for establishing other molecules‘ Global Warming Potential (GWP), a measure of
a gas‘s ability to absorb thermal radiation.5 In targeting areas to improve environmental
sustainability, major sources of anthropogenic emissions must be evaluated. One such source
is electricity generation from coal and natural gas, which has been responsible for a relatively
stable percentage of total emissions over the past two decades (Table 1). Over this same time
span, significant reductions have not been achieved, owing to an outdated transmission grid
and steady reliance on fossil fuels. Average power plant efficiencies are around 35% and
losses to transmission are to be discussed in the next section. Increased consumption and low
efficiency has made emissions reductions difficult to attain; in 2009, electricity generation in
the US produced 2,154 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, about 38% of the
nation‘s total.6
4 Noam Lior, ―The Current Status and Possible Sustainable Paths to Energy ‗Generation‘ and
Use,‖ Proc. of the 1st International Nuclear and Renewable Energy Conference (INREC10),
Amman, Jordan, March 21-24, 2010. 5 Hinrichs & Kleinbach, Energy: Its Use and the Environment, 297-300.
6 US Environmental Protection Agency, Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon
Sinks, 1990-2009, April 15, 2011.
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Table 1: CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion by Fuel Consuming End-Use
Sector (Tg or million metric tons CO2
Equivalent)
Energy Use and Global Socioeconomic Concerns
The growth of global emissions output in the future will depend heavily upon the
energy sources developed in rapidly industrializing areas. Infrastructural development requires
investment of funding and resources; however, increasing energy use per capita may not be the
only path to achieving measurable economic gains. Figure 1 illustrates the result of a study of
the relationship between per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and primary energy use.
The US uses more energy per capita than the nations recorded, yet is comparable in economic
prosperity with nations using lower levels of energy, such as Australia, the UK, and France.
The results suggest that increased consumption does not produce significant economic gains
beyond the 150-250 gigajoule level. A similar study of the relationship between energy use
and Human Development Index (HDI) incorporates the response of five equally-weighted
factors to energy usage: poverty, inequality, unemployment, health, and education. As with
Source: Hinrichs & Kleinbach, Energy: Its Use and the Environment
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GDP, the social returns for energy consumption appear to be diminishing beyond a certain
range.
Figure 1: GDP per capita and Primary Energy
Consumption per capita
Source: Lior, “Is reduction of energy use going to harm us economically?
A link between national energy consumption and GDP?”
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The US has the highest annual per capita carbon dioxide emissions in the world
(Appendix A). Studies of the environmental impact of emissions use various metrics to assess
anthropogenic causes of ecological harm. Two of the most common are the Living Planet
Index (LPI) and the Ecological Footprint (EF). LPI is a measurement of trends in global
biodiversity and accounts for declines in species numbers and degradation of wildlife habitat.
The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) developed
the index to better address the impacts of human development. EF measures the relationship
between human use and demand on ecological systems, or ―human appropriation of ecosystem
products and services in terms of the amount of bioproductive land and sea area needed to
supply these products and services.‖ EF incorporates six types of land uses—cropland,
Figure 2: HDI and Energy Consumption per capita
Source: Lior, “HDI (Human Development Index) is not sensitive to energy
consumption after a certain minimal consumption is assured”
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grazing land, fishing ground, forest land, built-up land, and the uptake land—to calculate the
carbon footprint. The numerical value is an estimate of what percentage of the Earth it would
take to support humanity; for instance, the footprint in 2006 was 1.4 planet Earths, meaning
―humanity uses ecological services 1.4 times as fast as Earth can renew them.‖ 7
These two metrics grant valuable insight into the impact of human development on
environmental sustainability. Since 1970, LPI is estimated to have declined by about 30%,
indicating that environmental degradation is occurring rapidly. Over the same period, EF
increased 2.4-fold.8 In a global context, these measures, in tandem with the economic and
social indicators reviewed above, are examples of sustainability metrics used in agreements o
meet emissions reductions and developmental goals. However, these methods have done little
to inform effective policies and abatement actions; according to University of Pennsylvania
Professor of Engineering Noam Lior, ―we seem to be running out of environment much faster
than out of resources.‖9 Studies linking GDP, HDI, LPI, and EF to energy consumption
provide ample information for policymakers, industry leaders, and global citizens to observe
how development has degraded the environment, but methods of aggregating this data and
formulating plans for improvement have been ineffective.
Great strides have been made in normalizing economic and environmental data to
address the failures of traditional sustainability metrics, but the social pillar of sustainability is
perhaps the most difficult to address. This is due in part to the highly localized and individual
nature of social ―welfare‖: community, regional, national, and the international values and
7 Ecological Footprint Network, Calculation Methodology for the National Footprint
Accounts, 2010 Edition. 13 October 2010. 8 Noam Lior, ―About sustainability metrics for energy development,‖ Proc. 6th Biennial
International Workshop "Advances in Energy Studies", Graz, Austria, 29 June – 2 July
2008. 9 Lior, ―About sustainability metrics for energy development‖
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human need hierarchies differ, so large-scale changes to energy infrastructure often fail to meet
one or several groups‘ perception of sustainable development. After evaluating the status of
wind energy technologies in the next section, wind power‘s exacerbation of this effect will be
addressed in terms of national and local history.
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Section II. Wind Energy: Current Use and Potential for Implementation
Global Trends in Usage
Amidst growing awareness of the environmental dangers associated with generating
electricity using fossil fuel combustion, integrating renewable energy technologies into the
United States electricity supply is a major focus of local and national policies, technical
research, and private industry investment. A growing suite of generation systems are capable
of meeting a sizeable portion of demand. Wind-powered electricity generation is an option
that has enjoyed considerable technical and economic success over the past decade, growing
from a global installed capacity of 17.4 gigawatts in 2000 to 194.4 gigawatts in 2010. The
increase in installations attests to the feasibility of large wind farm projects and has been
efficacious in stabilizing the European Union‘s electricity supply, currently providing 9.1% of
total demand. 10
Although the industry is growing in the US, second only to China in total
national capacity, wind-generated electricity supplies less than 3% of the total demand. In an
effort to spur greater investment and surpass, the US Department of Energy released a 2011
report entitled 20% Wind Energy by 2030, outlining its developmental goals for energy
infrastructure over the next two decades.11
Such goals are important drivers of policies and incentives making wind-generated
electricity cost competitive with electricity generated through fossil fuel combustion. Prices
paid for electricity are correlated with the costs of production, including fluctuations in fuel
prices and operational costs; consumers are sensitive to changes in generation technologies, so
10
Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2010, October 2010. 11
U.S. Department of Energy, 20% Wind Energy by 2030: Increasing Wind Energy’s
Contribution to U.S. Electricity Supply, July 2008.
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increasing economic efficiency is vital to widespread implementation. The EU has utilized its
strongest wind resources to maximize production from turbines, locating 45 wind farms
totaling 2.9 gigawatts of capacity off the coasts of Northern European countries. Offshore
production requires a substantial initial investment, comprising a major portion of the €13
billion the EU channeled into wind energy development in 2010.12
However, wind speeds
along coastal areas are more reliable and have higher potential than terrestrial sites. EU
channeled into wind energy development in 2010.8 However, wind speeds along coastal areas
are more reliable and have higher potential than terrestrial sites and therefore provide an
opportunity for long-term economic benefit. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory
(NREL) estimates that gross offshore wind generating capacity potential is four times greater
than the nation‘s current supply.13
A map of the geographical distribution of this potential is in
Appendix B. In addition, ―fuel‖ inputs are the primary variable costs associated with electricity
generation. For wind power production, fixed costs are high, but low variable costs play to its
competitive advantage against fossil fuel combustion systems. As discussed in Section I,
uncertainty in fossil fuel reserves foster volatility in the prices of fuels; certainty in the future
prices of resources like wind allow for clearer assessment of financing options which, in
tandem with decreased manufacturing costs of technological components, will be important
factors in bringing projects to fruition within the time frames set by domestic and international
agreements.
12
GWEC, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2010. 13
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, ―Large-Scale Offshore Wind Power in the United
States: ASSESSMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES AND BARRIERS, September 2010.
13
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Technical Limits to Implementation
Despite its proven potential to meet these goals, proposed high-capacity projects fail to
reach completion in the US. Technical incapacity is not a frequent cause of project failure, but
the difficulty of present-day grid integration will be helpful in assessing the impact of
individual developments in the national electricity infrastructure on overall wind power
incompatibility. Reaching the upper limitations of wind resource capacity will require further
technological innovation to combat challenges associated mainly with transmission and
distribution, or T&D. All forms of electricity distribution struggle with power storage, but the
variability of the input resource in wind powered generation systems and the tendency for
farms to be located at sites distantly located from potential users make efficient transmission
systems a necessity. However, the structure and capacity of transmission in the US is
unsuitable for wind power‘s quick and efficient distribution. While the development of the
national energy infrastructure will be examined more closely in Part III, understanding the
basics of the US grid construction is vital to addressing the technical limitations of wind power
implementation.
―The grid,‖ as it has been referred to previously, is actually the product of three
individual but interconnected high-voltage networks. The low-voltage lines used by individual,
unconnected suppliers of the early 20th
century were replaced by interconnected transmission
systems. Generators could be shared between utilities and less extra capacity had to be stored
in case of sudden increases in demand. This cooperation and greater demand for electricity
across vast distances increased utilities‘ need for efficiency; accordingly, higher voltage power
lines were installed in three large interconnected systems. The outcomes of centralizing
operational monitoring of these three systems are addressed in Section III. First, voluntary
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standards were developed by the electric utility industry to promote smooth operation of the
interconnected system. As the operation grew, better coordination was required. As total
demand increased, utilities also became susceptible to greater surges in momentary demand.
To manage the bulk power systems and ensure the protection of the systems from foreign
attack or disturbance, the electric power industry created the North American Electric
Reliability Corporation (NAERC) and enlisted the help of two major national energy
regulatory bodies to bolster reliability even further.14
The interactions between the two
bodies—the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the U.S. Department of Energy—and
the industry will be given further consideration regarding how infrastructure development was
affected.
Before proceeding, clarification of the terms ―national energy infrastructure‖ or
―national electricity infrastructure‖ is required. These terms are meant to refer to the host of
equipment, operations, and inputs to electricity generation in the US. To be sure, no single
structure underlies the entire nation‘s T&D system. Instead, utilities rely on three separately-
functioning grids that cross state and national boundaries. The first serves the eastern half of
the US, called the Eastern Interconnected System; the second provides T&D for areas between
the Pacific Ocean and Rocky Mountain States, called the Western Interconnected System; the
third serves areas around Texas including parts of Mexico, called the Texas Interconnected
System.15
An illustration of this system can be seen in Appendix C.
The costs associated with updating the electricity grid to meet a substantial portion of
demand using wind energy are not yet low enough, or the perceived benefits not high enough,
14
United States Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP), ―A
Primer on Electric Utilities, Deregulation, and Restructuring of U.S. Electricity Markets 2002-
05,‖ May 2002, 4.0-5.0. 15
US Energy Information Administration, ―Electricity Explained,‖ US EIA Website.
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to spur investment. However, losses to T&D are substantial even in coal-fired generation
systems. In order for electricity to reach its end user, power must be transported in large
quantities over the electricity grid, power lines, and into homes or other spaces. The total
output of a plant‘s generator does not reach end use. Losses vary in magnitude based on the
age and efficiency of equipment in addition to the level of resistance in electrical wires.
Normally, the grid and standard operating equipment for coal-fired plants lose 5% to 8% of
total output during T&D. In a report published by the ABB Group, which manufactures
energy distribution, total power lost to T&D in 2005 would have fetched nearly $19.5 billion
on the commercial electricity market.16
Adjusting these figures for 2010 data provided by the
Energy Information Agency, average T&D losses of 7% totaled $33.7 billion.17
Over time,
these costs have become associated with the process, but underinvestment in transmission
efficiency is costly.
Simply increasing the efficiency of electricity generation systems is not necessarily a
path to sustainable development. The idea that improved efficiency increases consumption,
often referred to as the ―rebound effect,‖ was related to coal-fired electricity generation by
William Stanley Jevons in 1865. In his book The Coal Question, Jevons posited that the
Britain, a rapidly-industrializing nation, was economically and politically vulnerable due to its
reliance on easily-mined, depleting coal reserves. His theory, known as the Jevons Paradox,
states:
―It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is
equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth. As a rule, new
16
ABB, ―Energy Efficiency in the Power Grid,‖ 2007. 17
U.S. Energy Information Administration. ―Electricity Explained,‖ US EIA Website.
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modes of economy will lead to an increase of consumption . . . Now, if the quantity of
coal used in a blast furnace, for instance, be diminished in comparison with the yield,
the profits of the trade will increase, new capital will be attracted, the price of pig-iron
will fall, but the demand for it increase; and eventually the greater number of furnaces
will more than make up for the diminished consumption of each.‖18
Using fossil fuel resources with higher efficiency, then, could increase total consumption and
fail to offset the high emissions output. In developing sustainable energy infrastructures and
implementing new sources, efficiency gains and technological improvement need to be
balanced with Jevons‘ cautionary theory.
Measures taken to reduce emissions from electricity generation, either through grid
updates or innovations in storage and transportation of power, must be adaptable to diverse
energy portfolios. Low-emission renewable energy sources are an option for maintaining
similar levels of output by supplementing and, over time, replacing fossil fuel systems. At
current technological status, wind-generated electricity is a feasible option for providing large
loads of electricity under suitable conditions; however, wind technologies are used optimally
as primary or complimentary producers in a larger system. Integration into diversified supply
portfolios has been a key approach for the EU‘s dramatic increases in installed wind capacity.
According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), the size and inherent flexibility
of the power system are crucial aspects in determining the system‘s ability to accommodate a
high share of wind power. Due to its variable output according to conditions, systems using
wind energy for heavy production should employ similar methods used to ensure fossil fuel-
18
William Stanley Jevons, (1866) The Coal Question: An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of
the Nation and the Probable Exhaustion of our Coal-Mines, 2nd edition, Macmillan, London:
1866, 123-125.
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fired systems are capable of managing relatively random fluctuations in demand: system
reserves and balancing methods serve as operational controls, allowing plant operators to
adjust output based on need. The EWEA‘s standards for wind power integration are based on
EU systems that provide a significant portion of demand using wind—around 20% of total
demand—and that build in flexibility and diversify energy portfolios as total wind energy
penetration increases. 19
In the US, increasing production from wind to similar levels of EU
systems, then, should be addressed on a system-to-system basis, mixing sources according to
availabilities in different geographical locations.
The technological status of the current electricity grid prohibits introduction of wind
energy technologies. In exploring reasons for persistence of coal-fired electricity as the
primary supply, consideration must be given to the historical development of the energy
infrastructure as a whole. The modern grid was designed based on the use of coal-fired plants,
the source of electricity for the earliest electrified cities, and hydroelectric power, which was
used to bring electricity to rural areas. The development of these two vital systems facilitated
the electrification of the US throughout the twentieth century, linking power plants, homes,
and offices with an elaborate network of wires and equipment. Coal emerged as the primary
fuel for supplying electricity into the 21st century, limiting the entrance of wind energy through
technical specificity—fossil fuel plants convert chemical energy to electricity, while wind
technologies converts kinetic energy to electricity, leading to inherent transmission system
incompatibilities. However, the development of coal-burning capacity and its persistence have
also been interpreted using theories of technological change accounting for social factors that
contribute to the system‘s ―momentum.‖ In the next section, the theories are used to show how
19
European Wind Energy Association, ―Powering Europe: wind energy and the electricity
grid.‖ A Report by the European Wind Energy Association, November 2010.
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wind energy integration confronts societal expectations of national energy infrastructure
development that resulted from the rapid electrification of the US in the twentieth century.
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Section III. History of the National Energy Infrastructure-Wind Energy Incompatibility
Defining the Sociotechnical System
Coal-fired electricity generation systems achieved widespread implementation and
endured largely by satisfying local, regional, national, and international developmental goals.
The development of wind energy systems, then, can be compared to the trajectory of the US
energy infrastructure. This infrastructure, in its current form, can be considered a single, large
technical system (LTS), one that encompasses generation and distribution technologies,
suppliers, consumers, and institutions involved in the development and implementation of
generation processes. Both developers and users increased the pace of the system‘s growth
while implementation simultaneously influencing political, social, and economic dynamics in
the US. As stated by historian Thomas P. Hughes in his seminal analysis of LTS, ―they are
both socially constructed and society shaping.‖20
His analysis is important to the
understanding of electricity generation systems‘ resistance to change. The US energy
infrastructure is a ―sociotechnical system,‖ one that has distinct goals yet is also directed by the
interactions of the individuals, technologies, and groups that are invested in its development.
These interactions can be instrumental in a system‘s persistence, as Hughes relates to
electricity systems: ―Men and institutions developed characteristics that suited them to the
characteristics of the technology. And the systematic interaction of men, ideas, and institutions,
both technical and nontechnical, led to the development of a supersystem—a sociotechnical
one—with mass movement and direction. An apt metaphor for this movement is
20
Thomas P. Hughes, The Evolution of Large Technical Systems, p.1
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‗momentum.‘‖21
Focusing on the aspects of coal-fired electricity generation systems‘
development that provided the ―momentum‖ and staying power are vital to addressing the
failure of sustainability metrics in promoting the growth of wind energy technologies.
Integrating wind power into the US electricity supply is restricted by a complex
interaction of political, social, and economic forces that relate to the historical evolution of the
current system. The development of the coal-fired system should be an important
consideration in designing methods and measures of sustainable development. Hughes
pinpoints four stages of ―system evolution‖22
to address an otherwise complex development of
the electricity generation system: invention and development, transfer from one region or
society to another, system growth, and increased momentum. Contextualizing wind power
within these stages to identify how each ushered in long-standing human-energy relationships
can be useful in addressing barriers to implementation at the national level.
Invention and Development: Origins of Electricity, 1800s
The electrification of American cities in the late nineteenth century drastically altered
American societal perception of the human-energy relationship. But the role of electricity
within this human-energy dynamic can be traced to earlier stages of development. The first
half of the nineteenth century, natural philosophers were building on the increased study of
electric charge, light, heat, and motion by investigating how these forces of nature could be
transformed from one to another. In industrializing nations, the scientific community turned
much of its attention to work—how to harness nature to produce useable force and motion,
21
Hughes, Networks of Power: Electrification in Western Society, 1880–1930. Baltimore:
Johns Hopkins University Press, 1983, p.140.
22 Hughes, Networks of Power, p. 14
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critical to manufacturing processes.23
The development of theories regarding the conversion of
heat and electromagnetic forces to motion facilitated profitable invention of electricity
generation and distribution technologies later in the century. Prominent early developers
formulated their theories relating to their philosophical schools of thought, which influenced
how these technologies impacted society. Two of the most influential theorists, Sadi Carnot
and Hans Christian Oersted, provided explanations of the conversion of heat to motion and the
relationship between magnetism and electricity. Both would be essential to later inventions of
electricity generation and distribution technologies by Thomas Edison, the inventor Hughes
uses as a starting point for his four stages of development.
Carnot sought to explain how steam engines, vital tools to early industrialization
manufacturing processes, converted caloric to motion. He explained this as a transfer of the
caloric from one part of the steam engine to another, beginning in the furnace and transferring
from the steam to cool water. He placed his focus on the temperature change of the caloric
from hot to cold, not from one state to another. This concept allowed Carnot to observe that
the caloric is actually conserved rather than consumed, with temperature change being the
driver. According to Carnot, heat is the ―immense reservoir‖ of nature‘s economy, an idea that
would manifest itself in the design of heat engines with increasing efficiency throughout the
nineteenth century.24
Oersted discovered the link between electricity and magnetism in 1820 in an
experiment using a magnetized needle and copper wire with electricity flowing through it. In
this experiment, he hoped to prove yet another link between natural forces that would attest to
his Romantic naturphilosophie. This philosophy held that an underlying force drove all others
23
P.J. Bowler and I.R. Morus, Making Modern Science: A Historical Survey, p.81 24
Bowler and Morus, Making Modern Science, 86-87
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and that a fundamental unity exists between everything in nature.25
In examining electricity
and magnetism in this context, Oersted planted the ideas necessary for later conversions of this
force to useful work.
Carnot and Oersted‘s discoveries would be influential in understanding both the
conversion and conservation of energy and thus play a major role in defining the human-
energy relationship They would also provide the foundation for the development of an
American system largely dependent on heat engine-based generation. The convergence of
ideas about converting, rather than consuming, fuel in producing useable energy during a time
of rapid industrialization shaped how Americans came to understand the human-energy
relationship. Economic and social growth during industrialization was facilitated by an
―immense reservoir‖ of heat sources, unbridled by discovering the impossibility of
consumption. Massively transmitting this power would rely on the technological
implementation of Oersted‘s discovery of the link between electricity and magnetism. Just as
his naturphilosophie-based theory proposed an underlying unity of natural forces,
electrification later served as a link between US regions and thus portrayed electricity as a
means of promoting connectivity.
Integrating wind energy into the electricity system challenges the model instilled by the
convergence of ideas about the conversion, conservation, and use of natural forces. While
climatic forces are largely based on the sun‘s radiation (heat), wind powered electricity
generation systems use the wind‘s kinetic energy to turn turbines and produce electricity. This
is a fundamental difference from fossil fuel combustion, which uses the heat produced by
burning coal or another fuel to power turbines with steam. By removing combustion from the
25
Bowler and Morus, Making Modern Science, 83
23
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process, wind energy systems fail to fit the perception of nature as a heat source for human
growth. In essence, wind energy is limited by a ―mystique‖ similar to the one explained by
Carnot‘s observation of the caloric changing temperature throughout the steam engine process.
Implementing wind energy sources also confronts the standard definition of
―conservation‖ established in the early stages of system development. Whereas the discovery
that energy cannot be consumed, but rather converted from one source to another, promoted
widespread use of the heat engine, wind energy is often perceived as a technology that requires
reducing consumption. The electricity grid has been built to handle bulk loads from fossil fuel
generation, but struggles with the intermittent power levels produced by wind turbines. While
grid incompatibility is a technical issue, this serves as an example of the technology shaping
public opinion and society shaping technology. The system is built to harness the conservation
of energy by a series of temperature changes using solid fuels in measured capacities. Wind
energy, however, challenges utilities and users to reduce energy usage overall.
In addition to its impact on conservation, wind resource availability is highly localized
and not easily transportable. The current system distributes electricity from centralized
locations and can be carried great distances, so areas with few renewable resources benefit
from this unification. Wind‘s incompatibility with this aspect of energy usage is best
addressed through an assessment of the second stage of technical evolution.
Technology Transfer and System Growth: Centralization, Rural Electrification, and High
Modernism
Cities were the first to benefit from US electrification initiatives owing to their high
concentration of residents and industrial activity. Coal-fired generation systems are often
found on the edges of cities, producing electricity and distributing it across a given
24
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geographical range. The establishment of high-voltage transmission lines—the first of which
was built by American Gas & Electric in 1917—allowed cities to be powered by large plants
located on the edge of town, often near rivers, rail stations, or, in many early cases, at the site
of the coal mine.26
These technologies were transferred to rural areas of the US, facilitating
broader expansion of coal-fired systems. Perhaps the best example of the industrial era‘s
impact on societal expectations of energy infrastructure development was the creation and
implementation of the Rural Electrification Act. Engineer Morris Cooke had been drafting
ideas and plans for rural electrification of the U.S. during his time in the offices of
Pennsylvania mayors and governors in the 1920s, applying technical knowledge gained at
Lehigh University in 1895. However, a convergence of ideas would bring the plan to full
fruition. With the technical capacity reached, effective methods of centralized planning and
construction were needed. The system‘s trajectory was largely influenced by the rise of
scientific management during this era.27
Scientific management is the application of scientific
methods—observation, data collection, and technical interventions, for example—to the
administration of a project or occupation. This form of management was growing in industrial
America, largely due to the work of Frederick Taylor, also an engineer, who became a
consultant to many large industries and promoted industrial efficiency.28
The spread of Taylor‘s ideas into industry helped Cooke navigate the complex
economic and logistical task of providing power to rural communities and expand a consumer
culture that was previously confined to cities. Cooke was appointed the administrator of the
Rural Electrification Administration under Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1935. He effectively
26
Hunter and Bryant, The Transmission of Power, 148-215. 27
Hindy Lauer-Schachter, Frederick Taylor and the Public Administration Community: A
Reevaluation. Albany: State University of New York Press, 1989, 75-78. 28
Lauer-Schachter, Frederick Taylor, 80-90.
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leveraged the industrial movement of scientific management to create a technical plan for
government implementation, brining coal-fired electricity to millions of farms and homes by
the middle of the 20th century.29
However, reaching this goal required managing other aspects
of the project that might limit growth. Hughes recognizes these as ―reverse salients‖ and
proposes that successful system evolution depends on developers managing potential
problems.30
Financing the project was one potential limitation even after projects were underway.
The growth of the sociotechnical system around coal-fired electricity generation was
concentrated in ―large, centralized‖ generation sources—companies that were largely vertically
integrated, owning mines, generating equipment, transmission lines, and other infrastructural
technologies associated with large-scale electricity distribution.31
The expansion of education
in energy engineering—developing schools and programs producing innovative findings in the
science of electricity generation and transmission—was tied directly to the rise of fossil fuel
electricity production in the U.S. As Hughes notes, the system‘s construction relied heavily
on a merger of interests: ―The professors teaching the courses may be regular consultants of
utilities and electrical manufacturing firms; the alumni of the engineering schools may have
become engineers and managers in the firms; and managers and engineers from the firm may
sit on the governing boards of engineering schools.‖32
Invested stakeholders were distributed
across the sectors of the system‘s development.
29
Hughes, Networks of Power, 145. 30
Hughes, Networks of Power, 79. 31
Louis C. Hunter and Lynwood Bryant, A History of Industrial Power in the U.S., 1780–1930:
Vol. 3: The Transmission of Power. Boston: The MIT Press, 1991, 148-152. 32
Thomas P. Hughes, ―The Evolution of Large Technological Systems,‖ in The Political
Economy of Science, Technology, and Innovation, ed. Ben Martin and Paul Nightingale.
Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2000, 288.
26
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A growing consumer culture in the industrial US was driving the interests of each
group involved in the development of the electricity infrastructure. The centrally planned
electrification projects promoted and benefitted from greater production of consumer goods,
often by the same companies that were providing electricity. This growing interest in
consumer goods, and the technical capacity to use them, contributed to a drastic rise in
electrified homes in the US. In 1910, one in seven American homes had electricity. By 1920,
seven in ten had AC current available.33
Companies took a hands-on approach to enlarging the
consumer base. By personally engaging with customers through door-to-door selling, the
Denver Gas & Electric Company in Denver, Colorado sold over 9,000 new irons to households
in two years. 34
A growing social demand for ―high modernism‖ and consumer goods fueled the growth
of electricity generation systems. In Table 2, the consumption of electricity by electrical
appliances in the home can be seen in relation to the emissions and cost of each.
33
Regina Lee Blaszczyk, American Consumer Society, 1865-2005: From Hearth to HDTV,
140. 34
Blaszczyk, American Consumer Society, 140
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Source: Blaszczyk, American Consumer Society
Table 2: Energy Consumption in the Home
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Section IV. A Note on Local Community Opposition to Major Wind Projects
The fervor for access to electricity increased the rate of investment and construction of
necessary infrastructure. In contrast, recent wind energy development in the US has been
hindered by fervor against major projects in many regions of the country. Economic concerns
are often voiced by local industries concerned by the threat farms may pose to their access to
resources. Environmental groups eschew the projects based on threats to the local marine
ecosystem. Social concerns are also recurring points of protest among citizens worried about
how development will affect a host of factors ranging from housing values to the local culture;
these points are often tied to the economic and environmental concerns of other groups by
local politicians vying for their constituencies in approval and permitting processes. But
rejection of offshore wind farms by local communities is not merely a result of dollars and
cents added to electric bills, effects on local fish populations, or visual pollution on beachfront
properties; rather, cultural perspectives on the relationships between humans, resources, and
electricity production are embedded in the natural history of each area and shaped by the
historical trajectory of electricity generation system development in the US.
Planning and implementation of wind energy projects require careful attention to land
use practices, visual and auditory externalities, and methods of electricity transmission. The
following study examines a failed Massachusetts offshore wind power project, which had the
technical and financial viability to reach completion but threatened to alter the established
relationship between the region‘s people, their surrounding ecosystem, resource consumption
traditions.
29
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Section V. Case Study: The Cape Wind Project
Five miles from the shore of Mashpee, Cape Cod, powerful winds ripple the surface of
shallow water over Horseshoe Shoal. A 26 square mile area of the shoal, nestled between ferry
routes from the mainland to Nantucket and larger shipping channels, is the proposed site for
construction of the first offshore wind farm in the United States. Eight years and countless
political and legal processes after its initial proposal, the Cape Wind Project obtained all of the
necessary permits from local and federal agencies. However, none of the proposed 130
horizontal-axis wind turbines had been installed on Horseshoe Shoal by 2011. The initial
project planned for a peak generation capacity of 454 megawatts (MW), enough to power
420,000 homes and about 75% of the average electricity demand for Cape Cod, Martha's
Vineyard, and Nantucket island combined region. In addition, the estimated carbon dioxide
emissions offset was near a million tons per year and the power had the potential to replace
113 million US gallons of oil annually—a drastic local change, as about 45% of the Cape
region's electricity is produced at the Canal Power Plant, which uses bunker oil and natural gas
as its primary combustion fuels. 35
Each of these outcomes is an advancement of national and
global environmental sustainability goals, ensuring energy security while reducing atmospheric
pollution.
Natural History, Ecosystem Protection, and the Human-Nature Relationship
The role of the marine ecosystem in supporting Cape Cod‘s communities is entrenched
in the natural and human history of the Massachusetts coast. As early as 6,000 BCE, the first
small Native Americans settlements harnessed the ecological productivity of the waters to
35
Cape Wind Project, Article 37.
30
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survive the otherwise infertile and harsh terrestrial niche.36
Rising sea levels and climate
patterns inundated the area with ponds, estuaries, salt marshes, and a diverse set of marine
species. Regular fish runs and improved methods of harvesting the ocean‘s resources ensured
the survival sedentary civilizations and, by the time of their contact with Europeans in 16th
century, the Wampanoag had sustainably populated the Sound‘s coastal margins and estuaries.
Without arable land available for agricultural production, settlers occupied the margin between
land and sea; their survival depended on their ability to draw upon both. The complex task of
sustaining an ―estuarine sedentary‖ civilization required increased social hierarchy and
political centralization.37
Although European contact would transform the demographics of the Cape Cod area,
Native American methods of thriving under unique ecological conditions were transferred to
17th
century settlers of the Cape Cod region. As Hughes explained, the transfer of
technological systems occurs in several stages. The first is the stage of technical development;
in this case, the early Native American settlers developed a system that incorporated marine
and terrestrial ecosystem advantages in populating the area. The second stage is the transfer of
technological systems from the region or society that developed it to others. Natives‘ efficient
techniques and useful tools for fishing, planting, and managing the few resources that were
available on the mainland were adapted to the purposes of early New Englanders. ―Life on the
margin‖ required delegation of responsibilities to maximize efficiency and maintain the
sensitive ecological balance. The tasks of extracting food from the ocean to meet dietary
needs, managing terrestrial forests and other sources of energy for sustained practical use, and
36
Matthew McKenzie, Clearing the Coastline: The Nineteenth-Century Ecological & Cultural
Transformation of Cape Cod. Hanover: University Press of New England, 2010, 16 37
McKenzie, Clearing the Coastline, 12-13.
31
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ensuring the proper allocation of resources were drivers of social stratification. This began the
third stage of Hughes‘ model for technological transfer, as European settlers progressively
improved fishing technologies and resource extraction through political centralization and
social hierarchy based on occupation.38
Hughes posited that technological systems achieve
desired outcomes through ―reciprocal and interdependent cause and effect processes‖ that
balance the role of social and technical forces in developmental stages.39
Geopolitical Obstacles and the Impact of Cultural Values on Methods of Ecological Protection
The transfer of Native American methods of surviving in the Nantucket Sound region
was an integral component of ensuing economic and social development. The regional culture,
reflective of this long-standing communal dependence on the waters‘ resources, is defined by a
sense of ownership and paternalistic responsibility over Nantucket Sound. As a result, citizens
are politically and economically active in ensuring that the marine ecosystems are protected
from potential exploitation and harms. Proposals to open the waters to industrial uses are met
with opposition from community groups challenging each project‘s environmental, economic,
and social sustainability. Fierce opposition limits the ability of companies and organizations to
harness the Sound‘s resources in financially and technically feasible ways. This type of
activism, based on economic and cultural ties to the area‘s resources, illustrates the influence
of social structures on the process of technological change.
In evaluating the reasons behind opposition to the wind farm, careful consideration
must be given to the history of the region‘s energy infrastructure and pattern of economic
growth. While the aforementioned environmental groups assert that the Cape Wind Project
38
McKenzie, Clearing the Coastline, 16-23. 39
Hughes, ―The Evolution of Large Technical Systems.‖
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threatens the Sound‘s sensitive ecosystem, the current form of electricity generation has taken
a toll of its own. Both the Canal Power Plant and Cape Cod Power Plant receive shipments of
oil requiring travel through the Sound. The latter example uses oil as its feedstock and
transportation accidents have led to two major oil spills—one in 1976 (about 8 million US
gallons) and another in 2003 (about 100 thousand US gallons). The spill killed hundreds
of birds and shut down 100,000 acres of shell fishing beds.40
Oil spills have disturbed the local
environment as well as the fishing industry on multiple occasions—two outcomes that are
proven results oil dependence for electricity generation and yet form the basis of opposition to
the offshore wind farm.
40
Cape Wind, Article 37.
33
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Section V. Future Outlook
Given the current reliance on imported and domestic fossil fuels in the US, expansion
of renewable energy projects has been a priority across industries. In particular, solar energy
has benefitted from substantial government rebate programs, private financing and investment,
and its ―off-the-grid‖ capabilities. Transportation technologies, ranging plug-in hybrids to fuel
cell systems, have gained momentum from stricter emissions and fuel efficiency standards as
well as cultural inertia from automakers‘ marketing campaigns and the growing sustainability
movement. Solar and transportation technologies are currently benefitting from technological
momentum that closely parallels the forces that led to the construction of sociotechnical
system around coal and natural gas-fired electricity generation systems. Many of the
innovative institutions, social conditions, and technologies that arose around coal-fired
generation are applicable to these technologies, yet do not drive the integration of wind power
into the American energy landscape.
Today, the global economy is heavily influenced by fossil fuel prices and their
direction, attesting to coal-fired electricity generation‘s seamless integration into the American
economic and social structure.41
Coal‘s weight can be calculated, ownership of mines is
definable by land and property rights, it can be transported by boat, rail, or truck, and the costs
of mining and transporting are related to the efficiency of related technologies. Because wind
is a natural (and invisible) force, predicted only by changing patterns and forecasts, building a
sociotechnical system around it has proved difficult. Companies innovate based on
41
Martin V. Melosi, Coping with Abundance: Energy and Environment in Industrial America
1820–1980. Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1985, 130-210.
34
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technologies to harness the wind, such as turbines and windmills, yet cannot sell and trade the
source itself because ownership is limited to the use of the land. The industry has less of a
propensity for vertical integration, which was a vital outcome of coal commodification and key
to its success as a source of electricity generation.
While environmental historians and historians of technology have established the
historically-built strength of fossil fuel sociotechnical systems, many have also theorized about
a similar connection to renewable sources. Perhaps the most compelling example of this is
Richard White‘s description of the Columbia River in The Organic Machine. White‘s
historical narrative profiles the changing community built around the river and its hydroelectric
dam. While White devotes a considerable portion of the text to detailing the impacts of dams
and fisheries on the river itself, his most meaningful points reach beyond the intricacies and
particularities of harnessing the Columbia for energy and livelihood. He theorizes that humans
have come to know nature through ―work,‖ in both the practical and scientific senses of the
word—a relationship that continually changes with the conditions of the environment and
society. The result is the view of the river as an ―organic machine,‖ one that harnesses natural
moving forces for the increased productivity and sustainability of human life. White defines
the role of humans in a system of energy, work, and technology though a narrative about how
harnessing natural sources alters the states of human society and the surrounding
environment.42
Such studies can be important guides to building green economies and
restructuring infrastructure to address the changing human-energy relationship.
42
Richard White, The Organic Machine: The Remaking of the Columbia River. New York: Hill
and Wang, 1996.
35
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Appendix A: Greenhouse Gas Data
GREENHOUSE GASES
Gas Sources U.S. Emissions
(MT/yr)
GWP* Atmospheric Lifetime
2003 Concentration
CO2 Fossil fuels, deforestation
5500 1 100 years 373 ppM
Methane Rice fields, cattle,
landfills
600 21 12 years 1.7 ppM
*GWP = Global Warming Potential, which is related to a molecule’s ability to absorb thermal radiation relative to that of CO2 Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Source: Hinrichs & Kleinbach, Energy: Its Use and the Environment, 290-293.
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Appendix B: Offshore Wind Capacity Map, United States
Source: NREL
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Appendix C: National Power Grid
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
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Appendix D: Investment in Wind Energy
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Appendix E: Map of Horseshoe Shoal and Cape Wind Project Site
Source: Cape Wind Website
Coordinates: 41.542°N 70.321°W
40
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