WMO SDS-WAS programmeRegional Center for Northern Africa,

Middle East and EuropeActivity Report 2012

Enric Terradellas (AEMET), eterradellasj@aemet.esJosé M. Baldasano (BSC-CNS), jose.baldasano@bsc.es

Emilio Cuevas (AEMET), ecuevasa@aemet.es

2013-1 meeting of the WMO SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe, 21 January 2013

WMO SDS-WAS programmeRegional Center for Northern

Africa, Middle East and Europe

http://sds-was.aemet.essdswas@aemet.es

• Intercomparison and evaluation of dust prediction models• Web portal• Capacity building• Important meetings• Plans for 2013

Outline

Intercomparison and evaluation of dust prediction models

• The models• Joint visualization• Generation of multi-model products• Evaluation of dust AOD using AERONET data• Evaluation of surface concentration• Evaluation of vertical profiles

MODEL INSTITUTION RUN TIME

DOMAIN DATA ASSIMILATION

BSC-DREAM8b

BSC-CNS 12 Regional No

CHIMERE LMD 00 Regional No

LMDzT-INCA LSCE 00 Global No

MACC ECMWF 00 Global MODIS AOD

DREAM-NMME-MACC

SEEVCCC 12 Regional MACC analysis

NMMB/BSC-Dust

BSC-CNS 12 Regional No

MetUM U. K. Met Office

00 Global No

GEOS-5 NASA 00 Global MODIS reflectances

NGAC NCEP 00 Global No

• VARIABLES: Dust surface concentration – Dust Optical Depth at 550 nm• LEAD TIME: 0 – 72 hours, every 3 hours• GEOGRAPHICAL DOMAIN: 25ºW – 60ºE, 0 – 65ºN

The models

RUN: 21 Oct 2012 VALID: 21 Oct 2012 12:00 – 24 Oct 2012 00:00

Joint visualization. Dust AOD at 550 nm

RUN: 21 Oct 2012 VALID: 21 Oct 2012 12:00 – 24 Oct 2012 00:00

Joint visualization. Surface concentration

Model outputs are bi-linearly interpolated to a common 0.5ºlon x 0.5ºlat grid mesh. Then, different multi-model products are generated:• CENTRALITY: median - mean• SPREAD: standard deviation – range of variation

Generation of multimodel products

TAMANRASSET_INMSANTA_CRUZ_TENERIFE

nrt evaluation using AERONET data

• Monthly• Seasonal• Annual

Besides dust, there might be other aerosol types. Therefore, negative BE could be expected.

• Bias Error• Root Mean Square Error• Correlation Coefficient• Fractional Gross Error

Evaluation scores using AERONET data

Meteorological stations

PM10 = 914.06 V-0.73 + 19.03D’Almeida (1986)

TSP = 1339.84 V-0.67

Ben Mohamed et al. (1992)

Tegen and Lacis (1996)

𝜷 𝝀=∑𝒌=𝟏

𝑵𝝈𝒌𝑸𝒌𝝀

𝑽=𝟑 .𝟗𝟏𝟐

𝜷

𝜷 𝝀=∑𝒌=𝟏

𝑵 𝟑𝟒𝑪𝒌𝑸𝒌 𝝀

𝒓 𝒌𝝆𝒌

Koschmieder equation

Exploring the use of visibility to evaluate dust surface concentration

NEJRAN, Saudi Arabia

Terra/MODIS17 Mar 2012

17:00

KUWAIT Int. Apt., Kuwait

SEEB, Oman

Available at http://sds-was.aemet.es/models

Evaluation of surface concentration with AQ data from Turkey

Exploring the use of lidar to evaluate dust vertical profiles

Web portal

http://sds-was.aemet.es

sdswas@aemet.es

• PM10/PM2.5• Back-trajectories• EUMETSAT RGB-DUST

images• UKMO MSG retrievals• Joint visualization of

forecast Surf. Conc.• Joint visualization of

forecast DOD 550• Monthly comparison

models / AERONET• Evaluation scores (monthly,

seasonal, annual) • Multi-model products• Guidance for forecasters

Archive

Capacity building

19-23 Nov 2012: Cours sur l’utilisation des produits satellitaires aux applications agrometeorologiques, Niamey, Niger

26-28 Nov 2012: Workshop on Meteorology, Sand and Dust Storm (SDS), Combating Desertification and Erosion. Ankara, Turkey

Important meetings

Sep 2012. The WMO CBS-15 meeting recommends the designation of the Center as Regional Specialized Meteorological Center with Specialization on Atmospheric Sand and Dust Forecast(RSMC-ASDF).

Jul 2013. It is expected that the WMO Executive Council meets the recommendation and the RSMC starts working.

9-15 Sep 2012: WMO Fifteenth Session of the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS-15), Jakarta, Indonesia

20-22 Nov 2012: Regional Conference on Dust and Dust Storm, Kuwait

UNEP and WMO organized a special session on the scientific aspects of the Regional SDS Programme. Experts gave recommendations on the programme improvement.

Plans for 2013: Outstanding activities

• Dissemination of numerical forecast products (Mar 2013)• Publication of an activity report (Jun 2013)• Start of activities in the Operational Center

(Sep 2013)• Preparation of a scientific conference on

dust to be held in Barcelona in spring 2014 (together with a face RSG meeting)• Participation in capacity building activities

(Turkey, Oman)• Joint evaluation of the dust models: new

approaches

Thanks for your attention !!

WMO SDS-WAS programmeRegional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe

http://sds-was.aemet.essdswas@aemet.es