AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP

Work Packages:

1. Technologies (combination of CSP and desalting technologies)

2. Water and Solar Energy Resources

3. Demand Side Scenario

4. Market Potential 2000-2050

5. Socio-Economic Impacts

6. Environmental Impacts

7. Literature

AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP

Population in MENA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

[m

illio

ns]

UrbanRural

WP 3: Freshwater DemandPopulation Prospects

0

100

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600

700

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

[mill

ion]

BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgyptLibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco

AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandEconomic Growth

North Africa Western Asia Arabian Peninsula

Morocco 4.6 Jordan 4.4 Oman 3.2

Algeria 4.0 Lebanon 4.2 Kuwait 2.1

Tunesia 3.6 Syria 4.7 Qatar 1.9

Libya 3.8 Iraq 5.6 Saudi-Arabia 2.7

Egypt 4.1 Iran 3.8 UAE 1.8

Israel 1.9 Yemen 6.5

Reference U.S. 1.2 Palestine 4.6 Bahrain 2.3

Long-term average per capita growth rates of GDP

Arabian Peninsula

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

2050

Year

GD

P [

1000

$/ca

p P

PP

]

OmanKuwaitQatarSaudi ArabiaUAEYemenBahrain

North Africa

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

2050

Year

GD

P [

1000

$/c

ap P

PP

]

LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMoroccoEgypt

AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandWater Demand Model

Sector Irrigation Municipal Industrial

Driving Force γ Population GDP GDP

Best Practice Effic. βirr = 70 % βmun = 85 % βind = 85 %

Progress Factor αirr = 50 % αmun = 65 % αind = 65 %

General End Use Eff. Enhancement μirr = 0 μmun = 1.8 %/y μind = 1.8 %/y

)1(

)(

)1())(1()1()(

t

tttt

))(1()()()()( ttttt SE

))(()()( SSE ttt

SE

S

tt

tt

AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandWater Demand Prospects by Country

0

50

100

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200

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300

350

400

450

500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Fre

shw

ater

Dem

and

[b

illio

n m

³/y]

BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgypt LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco

AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandWater Demand Prospects by Sectors

Agricultural

MunicipalIndustrial

0

50

100

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450

500

20002005

20102015

20202025

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Year

Fre

shw

ater

Dem

and

[b

illi

on

m³/

y]

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

Sustainable Water Used

AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandDeficits by Country

0

20

40

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120

140

160

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Fre

shw

ater

Def

icit

[b

illio

n m

³/y]

BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgypt LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco

AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandScenario Variations

Type of Scenario Business As Usual AQUA-CSP Extreme Efficiency

Progress Factor αirr for

Irrigation Efficiency

20 % 50 % 100 %

Progress Factors αmun, ind

for Distribution Efficiency

20 % 65 % 100 %

Waste Water Re-Use 30 % 50 % 75 %

AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP

Business As Usual Scenario

Agricultural

MunicipalIndustrial

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

2050

Year

Fre

shw

ate

r D

eman

d

[bil

lio

n m

³/y]

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

Sustainable Water Used

Business As Usual Scenario

0

50

100

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250

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Fre

shw

ate

r D

efi

cit

[b

illi

on

m³/

y]

Bahrain

YemenUAE

Saudi ArabiaQatar

KuwaitOmanIran

IraqSyria

LebanonJordan

IsraelPalestine

Egypt LibyaTunisia

AlgeriaMorocco

AQUA-CSP Reference Scenario

Agricultural

MunicipalIndustrial

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

2050

Year

Fre

shw

ater

Dem

and

[b

illi

on

m³/

y]

0.0

100.0

200.0

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400.0

500.0

600.0

Sustainable Water Used

AQUA-CSP Reference Scenario

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Fre

shw

ater

Def

icit

[b

illi

on

m³/

y]

BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgypt LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco

WP 3: Freshwater DemandScenario Variation Business As Usual

AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP

AQUA-CSP Reference Scenario

Agricultural

MunicipalIndustrial

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

2050

Year

Fre

shw

ater

Dem

and

[b

illi

on

m³/

y]

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

Sustainable Water Used

AQUA-CSP Reference Scenario

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Fre

shw

ater

Def

icit

[b

illi

on

m³/

y]

BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgypt LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco

Extreme Efficiency Scenario

Agricultural

MunicipalIndustrial

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

2050

Year

Fre

shw

ater

Dem

and

[b

illi

on

m³/

y]

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

Sustainable Water Used

Extreme Efficiency Scenario

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Fre

shw

ater

Def

icit

[b

illi

on

m³/

y]

BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgypt LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco

WP 3: Freshwater DemandScenario Variation Extreme Efficiency

AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandCoincidence with other Analysis

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Abu-Zeid 2004 AQUA-CSP

Sa

vin

gs

un

til 2

02

5 [

Mm

³/y]

.

Re-Use

Ind./Com.

Municipal

Irrigation

Total Water Demand (GCC Countries)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025

Wat

er D

eman

d [

BC

MY

]

AQUA-CSP ESCWA 2001

Total Water Demand (North Africa)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025

Wat

er D

eman

d [

BC

MY

]

AQUA-CSP Blue Plan 2005

Total Water Demand (Mashreq)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025

Wat

er D

eman

d [

BC

MY

]

AQUA-CSP Al-Zubari 2002

AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandConclusions

MENA population will double by 2050

MENA economies will approximate European level by 2050

Water demand would grow from 270 Bm³/y in 2000 to 460 Bm³/y in 2050

Water deficit would increase from 50 Bm³/y in 2000 to 150 Bm³/y in 2050

Over-use of groundwater is already above 45 Bm³/y

Extreme efficiency could limit deficit to 100 Bm³/y

Efficiency and new sources will be required to cover water deficits