YILDIRIM Presentation PRIMEPhDConference[1]

8/8/2019 YILDIRIM Presentation PRIMEPhDConference[1]

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SPECIFIC TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHIN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY

EXPLORING THE FUTURE OF SOFTWARETECHNOLOGY IN TURKEY

Nihan YILDIRIM, Istanbul Technical University

PRIME Network Of ExcellencePhD Conference, 2005



Aim of Study Aim of Study-

Conducting a foresight study for Turkey on softwaretechnology, that is accepted as a critical technology globally- To provide inputs to national and industrial policymakers and strategy

formulators for designing effectiveand applicable policies and strategiesthat may open the opportunity windowwhichsoftware technology offers

- To force software industry professionals/practitioners think about the future.

Te c h n o l o g i c a l c a t c h i n g - u p

understanding,managemen t ,

implementat ion

Economica lcatching-up

economic

growthInternational

industrialcompetitiveness

R& Dinnovation

per formance

technologicaladvance

innovation

capability

design,formulat ion

implementat ion

Effective successful

pro-active Science &

TechnologyPolicies

Successful effective

scientific based tailored Future StudiesTechnology

Foresight

multiple mutable dynamics o f change

Te c h n o l o g i c a l d y n a m i s m i n t e l l e c t u a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l a b i l it y

S W O T

True reliable

updated valid Inputs

Te c h n o l o g i c a l c a t c h i n g - u p

understanding,managemen t ,

implementat ion

Economica lcatching-up

economic

growthInternational

industrialcompetitiveness

R& Dinnovation

per formance

technologicaladvance

innovation

capability

design,formulat ion

implementat ion

Effective successful

pro-active Science &

TechnologyPolicies

Successful effective

scientific based tailored Future StudiesTechnology

Foresight

multiple mutable dynamics o f change

Te c h n o l o g i c a l d y n a m i s m i n t e l l e c t u a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l a b i l it y

S W O T

True reliable

updated valid Inputs



Difficulties & Constraints of Foresighting in a

developing country

Difficulties & Constraints of Foresighting in a

developing countryLimited Financial resources:Lackof sponsorship, local funds, expertise on projectmanagement / proposal design to achieve international funds

Inappropriate Political Climate:Lackof leadership of government, unsystematic socio-political decisions, political instability, ineffectivebureucracy

Lack of Institutional Framework:No corporation betweenacademy, different disciplines, noestablished institution to promote, facilitate, motivate technology foresight studies, immatureprofessional and sectoral NGO’s.Insufficient Records:Lackof databases and statisticsof experts, proffessionals, academicsand bureaucrats, firms, innovations, patents etc.

Insufficient Knowledge Base:developed countries’ monopoly on critical information, limitedconsultancy, no prior ampiric studies providing observable issues to compare the results withfor validation

Insufficient Knowledge Network:weak communication infrastructure, no culture of

exchanginginformationand teamwork, incompetency in IT.



Method and process-Knowledge CreationMethod and process-Knowledge Creation

Literature search, ontrends, affecting

factors

Practitioner Consultant ExpertGroup (CEG)

8 developers,4 academics

Focused ExpertGroup (FEG)

15 developers,5 academics

Delphi SurveyParticipants

-20 academics (min.level: PhD) (%27 p.r.)-30 industry leader (min.middle level manager)(%44 p.r.)-62 SoftwareProfessionals (min. BScdegree/ 5 yearsexperience) (%62 p.r)- Total 112 participants(% 46 partic ipation rate)

Comments on affecting factorsand trends,

Questions for surveyquestionnaire for Phase 2-Defining main trends- FEG Answers/comments for

survey questionnairefor Phase 2-FEGResults of Phase-1 Survey with frequency

distribution, t-test, variance analysis :MAIN FACTORS AND TRENDS

TechnologyInteractionsMatrix

AffectingFactors,

subfactors

Questions for survey

questionnairefor Phase 3-

Delphi Survey Answers/comments for survey questionnaire for

Phase 3-Delphi Survey

Validation

Results of Phase-3 Survey withfrequency distribution, Z-test,variance analysis : FINDINGS

Second round

-Scenario Components: Driving forces, challenges, trends,-SWOT Analysis

-Policy Recommendations

Cause/effect, diagrams,Scenario Plans

56

questions

112questions

91findings

918findings

200factors

12technologies

Phase 1-Survey Design



SCENARIOSSCENARIOS



Evolution of Software TechnologyEvolution of Software Technology

SOFTWARESOFTWAREEVOLUTIONEVOLUTION

Broadband internetWireless networksMobile technologies Artificial intelligenceProcessorsComputing technologiesData StorageInput/Output DevicesVideo conference

Electronics

Material science /Technology:ceramics for networks and opticcables, Polymers, silicongermanium on batteries, siliconfor processors

Biotechnologies

Nano TechnologiesPower devices / power storage

Increasing, higher, complicatedUser requirements

InnovationsInnovations

Cooperation between technological disciplines

Interaction between technologies

Multidisciplinary competencies

New definition of software=Multidisciplinary Engineering

Advancedmethodological

skills

Structural methods/CMMI Agile methodsExtreme programmingPersonal Software Process

requires causes

High levelexpertise

Differentiation of Rulers /WorkersHigh level /Low level developers

AutomatedSoftware

development

AI, Bayesian techniques,

Simulation,CASE (Computer Assi sted SWEngineering),Constraints programming,Component-based softwaredevelopment

Developer communitiesGlobal firms Academy

Opensourcecode

Advancedtechnical skills

New specific HR/ management/organization/motivation/projectmanagement techniques

Cooperation of ITacademy andbusiness schools

Too smart andhardworking, toofree, independent

natured people

Mathematical/logicalcababilitiesIntellectual qualityCreativity



Mobility of Human ResourcesMobility of Human Resources1. Increasing mobility of human resources between firms and countries will cause qualityproblems, loss of jobs in developed countries, weaken the local technological competencies of developing countries. SW companies will be more institutionalized to keep the continuity of thcompetitiveness by using knowledge management systems, standart methodologies to transformsoftware development from “ artcraft” to corporational procedures. (2010)

CHALLENGESRegulations against workforceimportPolitical discrimination to foreigners esp. in U.S.A.Insourcing to replace brain drain loss. (Labs, R&D centers of globalfirms in DC’s using the local innovative workforce)Advancedmethodologies

DRIVING FORCESIncreasing demand on cost effective IT professionalsHighlevel expertise needsWorkforce import, global HRdatabases, Brain hunters.Brain drain

2. Home offices, virtual offices and freelance working will change the family structures and bricultural changes. (2010-2015)

DRIVING FORCESChanges in the expectations of individuals from life quality(more free time, family before career).

CHALLENGESIncreasing subcontractorshipsDeclinein security of jobs



Open source, open worldOpen source, open world

DRIVING FORCESAdvancedtechnical abilities provided by evolutionary developmentLower hardware performancerequirementsDeveloper communitiesDifficulties in stopping piracy throughtechnical/ regulativepreventionsCooperationwith hardwareproducersOpensourcecode as a strategic national choice for LDC’s

CHALLENGESGlobal firms opening their codesHardware integration problem of open source systems (5 years)Global firms’ lobbies about theinpracticality of opensourceWinTel

Open source code will change the basic concepts of software causing a return to code sharing structure at70’s, Software world will choose freedom and prefer open source code operating systems, office applicatioweb servers, database systems, domain name servers and languages. Market share of PC’s with open sourcesystems on them will increase. Global firms will have to cooperate with and support open source. (2007-20Licencing will be over in 10 years and SW firms will earn money through services (2010)Every country will have a national open source operating system (2015)

Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence

DRIVING FORCESBayesian techniquesNeural Networks

Voice, pattern, speech recognition systems (in daily life in 2010)Fingertip and iris recognition (in daily life in 2007)Great opportunities of Multimodel biometric applications (2008)

CHALLENGESHigh processor needs,Needfor 64 bit operating systemsCooperation/mergers of electronic firms with IT/software firms

Speech recognition and speech-to-writing mechanisms notavailable till the perfect recording of voice is provided.Natural Language Processing (limiteddevelopments in 3 years)Need for definition of Multimodel biometrics Standarts

There will be digital intelligence in every device and electronics. Refrigerators, owens, washing machines,cars, doors, heating/cooling mechanisms, even heart batteries will be communicating with their users,producers, environment, social service centres, supermarkets etc. Electronics and Computers will bephysical and will be ble to read mimics and gestures of humans. Language translation programmes willremove most of cultural borders and reshape intellectual life. Forecasting, listening and analyzing disastersand natural events will improve the quality of life. (2015-2020)



New ways of ComputingNew ways of ComputingQuantum computing:

not in practical use before 2020

Requires a specific programming languagecan be used in national defenceand military

Grid Computing:enables to connect and unite distributed computer resources and use thecommon power for higher performance needs.

Appropriate databases will be improved.enable LDC’s improve their national IT infrastructure and meet high computing performance needs with low costs.Enable industry shareresources.Security needs will be met till 2010.

Super Computing:requires an expensive infrastructure and advanced scientific knowledge and know-how,enables advanced applications like earth simulation.Canbe used in forecasting natural events and disasters, in material sciencereplacingthe real testing environment., inautomative industry for safety tests

Utility computing (On-demand):Not in practical use before 2015enables to carry resources dynamically between platforms,couples these resources for meeting high computing requirements.

Parallel processing:will not be widely used till 2008 .



Mobile worldMobile world

DRIVING FORCESNr. of mobile users =2 billions- 2007,Nr. Of cellular phones>PC+TV (2006)Mobile subscriptionrate = %25 - world , %105- Europe2006

20trillion bit data download/day,%50 subscribers usedata services in 2006Mobile PC’s=Desktop(2008)Development in mobile devices market (8 billions USD in 2008)Mobile communication protocols likeBluetooth, Jini, Chai3G (in daily life in 2008), 4G and II.5 g (2010-2015)

Ubiguitous Computing (in daily life in 2009)Mergers of electronic producers and software providersPervasive computing and Post PC devices

CHALLENGESErgonomy in mobile devices- light batteries and fansSecurity problems

Battery problem ( will be solved in 2008)Difficulties in dynamic IPTransforming existingapplications to mobile applications

Mobile world will enable humans and companies to connect to networked computers and whole digitalenvironment anywhere, anytime through mobile internet , innovative mobile softwares, consolidated mobiledevices communicating with each other, that can be also used as payment cards, digital keys,ıd cards byembedded chips. This will change the way of living and increase quality of life. (2010)Mobile operators will focus on corporate services. Mobile service costs will replace constant usage costs.

System SecuritySystem Security

DRIVING FORCESStandardizationin SW technology

Mergers and consolidations in security software market

CHALLENGESNGSCB of Microsoft will be security standart in 3 years

AI, bayesian based learning techniquesHardware basedsolutions’ quality/cost inequlibirum(min 4 years)Cost effectivity of hardwaresolutions

Software itself will not be able to meet increasing system security requirements completely. Securitysoftwares will be supported by hardware solutions. Complete solutions including antivirus, attack recognitfirewall will be produced. There will be more customer/service provider relations in security software mark



Networked and Downloadable WorldNetworked and Downloadable WorldNetworks, applications and hardwares will be united.%70 of industries will be carried to e-business .Broadband connections of gigabyte will be available even at home. By internet based content distribution asoftwares and digital content (information, document, data and image) will be downloadable in 2010.Operating systems and PC processor performance abilities will not be important anymore. Entertainment,movie and music industries will be reshaped. CD, related hardware and material supplier industry will get incrisis.IP based communication will be the mostly used telecommunication tool in 10 years

DRIVING FORCESWide usageof Broadbandtechnologies (usage= X 3 in 2009).Automatically controlled Optical networks and Passive optical networking

Wirelessnetworks (usage=X 4 in 2006, 30 million people in 2007)Users directing the evolution of wireless world with their demandsCost effecitivity of Wi-max (in mobile phones2007,laptops in 2008)Mobile technologiesNDC’s where earth lines are not mature and too expensive

Smart networks, SmartcardsSatellite connectionsAdvancements in Grid computingWeb services with standart protocols, free from platforms like XMLDevelopments in internet protocols

CHALLENGESProblems with high temperaturedconductorsImmaturity of wireless networks to replacewired networks till2009Security problem in wireless communicationAttacks on internet terrorist (An attack to internet expected in10 years)Internet crimes

Piracyon downloadable contentNo backup of internet, not possible to create one before 2015Immaturity of grid computing to alternate internetDifficulties in dynamic IP and expandinginternet backbonefor .mobiContent management



Cyber-Big BrotherCyber-Big Brother

DRIVING FORCESInternational instable political climateinnovation abilities of local industry in a competition- free environmentQuantum cryptography

CHALLENGESLimitation on the privacy of individualsBlockingapplications of nongovernmental bodiesNo international marketCyber attacks empowered by wider broadband.

There will be Cyber wars.and there will be cyber attacks to firms of enemy countries and their partners. Warmanagement and techniques will change, mobile troops will be able to share tactical information in real timeNational intelligence units will be monitoring citizens realtime and everywhere. Digitalization of security foand intelligence units will l imit the privacy of individuals. Messaging groups will be monitored. There will discussions on ethical issues. Nongovernmental bodies will reject and resist to these systems

e-Governmente-Government

e-Learninge-Learning

Digitalization of government and rural administrations will increase digital content. Governmental bodies wbe effectively integrated and improve their bureucracy and process productivity. IT and digitalization of governmental and political bodies will cause social reformations. For example, in election periods, citizenconsultancy web sites integrating elections surveys and political party programmes and comparing them wicitizen’s expectations will be used. This will improve democratic systems.

DRIVING FORCESContent management, portal structures

CHALLENGESReengineeringneedfor processes of education

Education systems will be powered by virtual classrooms and distributed learning. Educational content willmanaged and improved by content management systems and will be available in internet. By this way,educational knowledge management will improve the intellectual accumulation.

CHALLENGESReengineeringneedfor processes of government bodies

DRIVING FORCESDigital contentContent management , portal structures





E-BusinessE-Business

On the road, on the netOn the road, on the net

DRIVING FORCES

New generations grown up with internetContent management, portals (market=3.1 billion USDin 2006)

CHALLENGES

Reengineeringneedfor processesWorkers’ Unions resisting automationsubstitutionSecurity problem with electronic payment systems

E-business will double productivity/efficiency per hour within 25 years. US consumers will spend 133 billioUSD to e-trade. Online shopping will be doubled in 5 years. LDC’s will face the threat of loosing their existibusiness volume and staying out of the global economy if they cannot carry their industries to web basedwork processes of B2B and B2C. Bargaining sites and second hand virtual markets will transform shoppingattitudes and threaten electronic, consumer goods industries. Increase in B2B portal sites of SMSC’s willimprove producers’ unions. By the development of e-trade, global firms will close their sales branches abroand this will cause loss of jobs and foreign investment in LDC’s.

DRIVING FORCESDevelopment of retailing applications

CHALLENGESReengineeringneedfor processesIntegration with automative andtransport technologies

Transport telematics will develop, vehicles will communicate with each other and roads, road / trafficmanagement centres, oil stations, hospitals etc. This will reduce accident rates and improve traffic. Technicaproblems will be sent to vehicle producers real time.

CRM (Customer Relations Management)CRM (Customer Relations Management)

DRIVING FORCESDevelopment of retailing applications

CHALLENGESReengineeringneedfor processes

integrated. Calls that are recorded and archived in Call Centers will be transformed to datas supporting CRCRM and marketing/sales automation will replace active sales and CRM and call center cervices will be



ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning)ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning)

DRIVING FORCESMaturemarket (total global market 5.7 billions USD2008)Country of origin effect

CHALLENGESGlobal Firms monopoly (%50 market share). Microsoft aimsto be dominant by 2010.Reengineering needfor processes

Next generation ERP packages will be integrated and united with CRM, SCM applications. Open source ERPpackages will enable small and medium sized companies to increase their quality / productivity and

competitiveness. Customers will pay only for service and maintanance of ERP’s . Consolidations and mergebetween solution providers of ERP’s will empower monopoly in the market . Country of origin effect on ERchoice will continue to be dominant with global firms using their home country origined ERP’s in their offshore units. ERP investments will increase in retaling, consumer goods, telecom, CPG/FMCG andlogistics/distribution industries. ERP’s will be upgraded with the developments in processors.

Retailing and SCM (Supply Chain Management)Retailing and SCM (Supply Chain Management)

CHALLENGESGlobal Firms imposing ERP integrationsReengineeringneedfor processesVeryhighvolumes of data

Products and producers , CRM applications, transport telematics will be communicating with eachother andproducts will be monitored till the end of product life. The basic consepts of consumer goods and retailingindustry will change. This monitoring will threaten the privacy of consumers and cause ethical discussions

DatabasesDatabasesObject relational databases will develop and widely used.

Distributed databases will be critically important.



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TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVING FORCES (DF) AND CHALLENTECHNOLOGICAL DRIVING FORCES (DF) AND CHALLENSCENARIOS

SOFTWARE

TECHNOLOGIES



SWOT FOR TURKEY SWOTFOR TURKEY STRENGTHS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMON

Cheap work-forceSPECIFIC STRENGTHS OF TURKEY

Young populationEntrepreneurship courage of local firmsHigh rate of cellular phone usagePowerfull local GSM Operators

National IT general assemblyPositive business climate with Turki republics

OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMONOpen source code and community

Grid computingDeveloper communitiesBenchmarking with other countriesSmart translation softwares

SPECIFIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR TURKEY

Technoparks and technocitiesEU candidate membership processEfforts of Linux Community on national open source operatingsystem (ULUDAG Project)Opposite brain drain

“ Turquality” projectSW quality studies of national quality organizations and academyEffective and innovative local electronics producers

THREATS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMODigital divideEconomic instability of CountryGlobal firmsDifficulties in outsourcing and export due to lack ofsoftware standartsBrain drain

Increase in imports due to lack local hardware andmobile device industry,Loss of jobs by automation

SPECIFIC THREATS FOR TURKEY

Political lobbies of global firms in governmentGlobal firms trying to buy local GSM OperatorsIncontinuity of S&T policies and programmes due toPolitical instabilityRestrictions on R&D and innovation funds andincentives due to strict national saving programmesimposed by IMFPolitical intervention and staff assignments of government to national Science and TechnologyInstitution (TUBITAK)Resistance to methodologic work as a part of national culture – Turkish way of working



SWOT FOR TURKEY SWOT FOR TURKEY SPECIFIC WEAKNESSES OF TURKEY• Dependency of academy to governmental bodies-YOK,• Insufficient regulations and legal frame for Telecom

industry, failure in privatization of Telecom• Alphabetical differences• Too many sectoral NGO’s, no synergy

• High piracy rate (%58)• Foreign language incompetency• “ Parrot fashioned” basic education without IT tools• No mature professional organization on software• Incompetencein methodological work, project managemen

quality planning and management, testing and control:“ Turkish way of working”

• Insufficient consultancy• Immature local developer communities• Limited participation in global developer communities

• Unconscious users with unrealistic expectations

WEAKNESSES OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMON• Follower of technology, incompetent on technology

adaptation and innovation in national level• Low PC/internet penetration• Insufficient IT infrastructure and broadband connection• No leadership of government• Ineffective bureaucracy and regulations• Insufficient human resources• Limited financial resources due to low national income• Ineffective and inapplicable national S&T policies• Lack of future research on cr itical technologies• In effective academic and educational policies

• Weak links between educational/academic policies andnational S&T programmes and ,industrial needs

• No competency of academy and industry for followingcritical technological trends

• No multidisciplinary framework

• Immature local market, lack of large scale local firms• No competency in interacting technologies• No local hardware/mobile device producer firms• Weak country brand• Lack of competency in marketing and brand creation

• No national software standards, no national plan to design• Insufficient management, organization, human resources

management abilities



SWOT FOR TURKEY ON SOFTWARE TYPESSWOT FOR TURKEY ON SOFTWARE TYPESSoftware type Existing Production

in TurkeyFutureopportunity

Potentialof Turkey

National security and defence HighLowLow

Low

LowLow

Low

Low

Low

High

System Security Low High Medium

Business Intelligence and Analytics Low High Low

Content/Knowledge/Document/Multimedia Management Low High Low

Smart/Intelligent software – Middlewares Low High Low

Multimedia/Imaging/sound and image processing Medium High Medium

Embedded softwares Medium High High

System (operating system, database, web/mail/server/ dns, servers, system management) Low High Low

Medium

High HighHealth/medical High Medium

Logistics/transportation/tourism High Low

E-Government High High

ERP Medium LowSCM High Low

CRM High Low

Education, E-learning High Medium

E-Business High Medium

Finance/Accounting/Banking Medium High

Entertainment, digital animation, Games High High



POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TURKEY POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TURKEY Effective and applicable National Science and Technology Policies:

based on the findings of scientific future research s tudies like technology foresightIncluding applicable improvement programmes for critical and opportunity promising technologiesR&D and innovation programmes and supports for specific critical fields of defined critical technologies.basis for educational/academic policies and national employment policiesRestructured and autonomous of National Science and Technology Institutions

National Information Technology Institution including a software focused unitNational software standards

Privatization or reorganization of Turkish Telecom

Corporation of academy and industry

Improvement programmes for developing technoparks/technocities

United sectoral organizations under a confederation structure,

Open source code accepted as a national strategic choice

National open source operating system

Establishment of national software professional organizations

Restructuring basic education improving analytic thinking,mathematical competencies,logical understanding, IT familiaDesign and implementation of effective regulations and funds to protect local industry, competitive environment againsglobal firms, attract foreign investment, outsourcing and insourcing.

Autonomous Universities

Improvement of academic education and professional training programmes on software development including businessrelated competencies

Documents

YILDIRIM Presentation PRIMEPhDConference[1]