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National Weather Service National Weather Service OverviewOverview
Faith BordenFaith Borden
National Weather ServiceNational Weather Service
Las VegasLas Vegas
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A New Era in National Weather A New Era in National Weather Service Forecast ServicesService Forecast Services
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Weather Ready NationWeather Ready Nation
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NWS MissionNWS Mission
• ““The National Weather Service (NWS) The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent water and States, its territories, adjacent water and ocean areas, for the ocean areas, for the protection of life and protection of life and propertyproperty and the enhancement of the and the enhancement of the national economy. national economy.
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Who is the National Weather Service?Who is the National Weather Service?
• A FEDERAL AGENCY UNDER THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEA FEDERAL AGENCY UNDER THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
• BRANCH OF THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC BRANCH OF THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION (NOAA)ADMINISTRATION (NOAA)
• OPERATES 122 FIELD OFFICES, PLUS SEVERAL NATIONAL OPERATES 122 FIELD OFFICES, PLUS SEVERAL NATIONAL CENTERSCENTERS
• ANNUAL BUDGET APPROXIMATELY $800 MILLION, OR LESS ANNUAL BUDGET APPROXIMATELY $800 MILLION, OR LESS THAN $3.00 PER U.S. CITIZENTHAN $3.00 PER U.S. CITIZEN
• ABOUT 5,000 EMPLOYEES NATIONWIDEABOUT 5,000 EMPLOYEES NATIONWIDE
• THE ONLY ENTITY TO ISSUE OFFICIAL SEVERE WEATHER THE ONLY ENTITY TO ISSUE OFFICIAL SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGSWATCHES AND WARNINGS
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NWS Modernization HistoryNWS Modernization History• Early 1990sEarly 1990s
– Hundreds of Automated Surface Observing Systems deployedHundreds of Automated Surface Observing Systems deployed
• Mid 1990sMid 1990s
– Number of forecast offices increase ~150%Number of forecast offices increase ~150%
– WSR 88D deployedWSR 88D deployed
• 1999-20001999-2000
– AWIPS workstations fully deployedAWIPS workstations fully deployed
• 20032003
– IFPS becomes operationalIFPS becomes operational
• 2010-2012 2010-2012
– Dual Pol radar upgrades deployed Dual Pol radar upgrades deployed
– Weather Ready Nation UnveiledWeather Ready Nation Unveiled
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• Provide climate, water, Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and weather forecasts and warnings to protectwarnings to protect lifelife andand propertyproperty and and enhance the economyenhance the economy
• 76 billion observations76 billion observations
• 1.5 million forecasts1.5 million forecasts
• 50,000 warnings50,000 warnings
A Typical Year BringsA Typical Year Brings: :
– 6 Hurricanes6 Hurricanes
– 1,000 Tornadoes1,000 Tornadoes
– 5,000 Floods5,000 Floods
– 10,000 Violent Thunderstorms10,000 Violent Thunderstorms
– Severe Winter StormsSevere Winter Storms
– Drought and Large WildfiresDrought and Large Wildfires
– Excessive Heat EpisodesExcessive Heat Episodes
– 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; $14 Billion in Losses$14 Billion in Losses
NOAA’s National Weather ServiceNOAA’s National Weather Service
88FeedbackFeedback
Respond &Respond & Feedback Feedback
Respond &Respond & Feedback Feedback
Overview of NWS OperationsOverview of NWS Operations
DistributeDistributeDistributeDistribute
Products & ServicesProducts & ServicesProducts & ServicesProducts & ServicesLocalLocal
OfficesOffices
LocalLocal
OfficesOffices
CentralCentral
GuidanceGuidance
CentralCentral
GuidanceGuidanceProcessProcessProcessProcess
ObserveObserveObserveObserve
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NWS OverviewNWS Overview FacilitiesFacilities
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2
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NWS OverviewNWS OverviewNational CentersNational Centers
CCEE
NN TT RRAA
LL
HydrometeorologicalHydrometeorologicalPrediction CenterPrediction Center
Storm PredictionStorm PredictionCenterCenter
Aviation WeatherAviation WeatherCenterCenter
National Hurricane National Hurricane CenterCenter
Ocean PredictionOcean PredictionCenterCenter
Climate PredictionClimate PredictionCenterCenter
Space Weather Space Weather Prediction CenterPrediction Center
EnvironmentEnvironmentalal
ModelingModelingCenterCenter
PPOO
EERR AA TT II
OONNSS
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NWS OverviewNWS OverviewRiver Forecast Centers (RFCs)River Forecast Centers (RFCs)
• Issue river, reservoir and flood forecasts based on Issue river, reservoir and flood forecasts based on computer modelscomputer models
• Provide forecast guidance to Weather Forecast Provide forecast guidance to Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)Offices (WFOs)
• Work with water managersWork with water managers
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• Issue all Local ForecastsIssue all Local Forecastsand Warningsand Warnings
• Build and Maintain RelationshipsBuild and Maintain RelationshipsWith Local and State GovernmentsWith Local and State Governments
• Provide Expert Advice toProvide Expert Advice toEmergency Operations CentersEmergency Operations Centers
• Solicit Customer Feedback on Products and ServicesSolicit Customer Feedback on Products and Services
• Conduct Community Awareness and Education ProgramsConduct Community Awareness and Education Programs
• Train Volunteer Observers and Storm SpottersTrain Volunteer Observers and Storm Spotters
• Research projectsResearch projects
NWS OverviewNWS OverviewWeather Forecast Offices (WFOs)Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)
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National Weather Service Offices National Weather Service Offices Serving Nevada Serving Nevada
Las VegasLas Vegas
RenoReno
ElkoElko
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Your Las Vegas NWS OfficeYour Las Vegas NWS Office
• Responsible for 7 Responsible for 7 counties in 3 statescounties in 3 states
– 70,000+ square miles70,000+ square miles
– Just under 2.5 million Just under 2.5 million peoplepeople
• Elevation change of Elevation change of almost 15,000 ftalmost 15,000 ft
– Death Valley @ -282 ftDeath Valley @ -282 ft
– Mt. Whitney @ 14,494 ftMt. Whitney @ 14,494 ft
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STAFFINGSTAFFING
• 10 CORE METEOROLOGISTS
• 2 HYDROMET TECHNICIANS
• 2 METEOROLOGICAL INTERN
• 3 ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS
• 1 INFO TECHNOLOGY OFFICER
• 2 SPECIALIST METEOROLOGISTS
• 1 ADMINISTRATIVE ASSISTANT
• 1 METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE
5-7 personnel on duty M-F
2-3 personnel on duty weekends
and overnight
Open 24 hours a day, 7 days a
week, and 365 days a year!
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Short Term Desk
Long Term Desk
Public Service Desk
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Technology Old– Surface Technology Old– Surface ObservationsObservations
Manual observations every hour, and Manual observations every hour, and when conditions changed enough to when conditions changed enough to warrant a special observation.warrant a special observation.
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Technology New– Surface Technology New– Surface ObservationsObservations
Automated Automated Surface Surface Observation Observation System (ASOS)System (ASOS)
Completely automated and takes Completely automated and takes observations every minute (if observations every minute (if needed). Additionally, there are needed). Additionally, there are hundreds and hundreds of stations!hundreds and hundreds of stations!
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Technology Old- 57 RadarTechnology Old- 57 Radar
Weather Service Radar – 1957 Weather Service Radar – 1957 technologytechnology
Radar scope image – from archived film (1965)Radar scope image – from archived film (1965)
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Technology Newer – 88D RadarTechnology Newer – 88D Radar
WSR-88D – Doppler WSR-88D – Doppler RadarRadar
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Technology Newest –Dual Pol Technology Newest –Dual Pol RadarRadar
Images from left to right: Reflectivity (Z), Differential Reflectivity (ZDR), and Correlation Coefficient (CC). The white oval shows the leading edge of the dust storm in Phoenix, AZ, on the evening of July 5, 2011, at 6:40 pm local time.
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Technology Old - SatelliteTechnology Old - Satellite
ESSA Imagery from ESSA Imagery from September 1, 1966: September 1, 1966: Hurricane Faith Hurricane Faith approximatelyapproximately
300 miles off Cape 300 miles off Cape Hatteras. Hatteras.
Lower picture of Lower picture of Scandinavia in a Scandinavia in a generally cloud-free generally cloud-free picture. picture.
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Technology New - SatelliteTechnology New - Satellite
Visible GOES satellite image Visible GOES satellite image (March 10, 2008)(March 10, 2008)
Infrared imagery – Hurricane Dean Infrared imagery – Hurricane Dean
(August 20, 2007)(August 20, 2007)
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Technology Old– Upper AirTechnology Old– Upper Air
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Technology Newer– Upper AirTechnology Newer– Upper Air
Radiosonde launch – image courtesy of NCAR/UCAR/NSFRadiosonde launch – image courtesy of NCAR/UCAR/NSF
Radiosonde instrument packageRadiosonde instrument package
Technology keeps improving Technology keeps improving the toolsthe tools
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Technology Newest – Upper AirTechnology Newest – Upper AirProfilers: These measure Profilers: These measure wind.wind.
HOWEVER, upgrades can now HOWEVER, upgrades can now Provide MOISTURE Provide MOISTURE information!information!
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Weather BalloonsWeather Balloons
Released twice a day, every dayReleased twice a day, every day
92 sites in the US; 900 worldwide92 sites in the US; 900 worldwide
Filled with hydrogen or heliumFilled with hydrogen or helium
Flight lasts for about 2 hours; can drift as far as 125 Flight lasts for about 2 hours; can drift as far as 125 miles away; will rise up to 100,000 feet (20 miles) miles away; will rise up to 100,000 feet (20 miles)
Instrument called a radiosonde is attached to Instrument called a radiosonde is attached to measure pressure, temperature, relative humidity, measure pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and directionwind speed and direction
Primary source of data above the groundPrimary source of data above the ground
Provides valuable input for computer forecast Provides valuable input for computer forecast models, local data models, local data for meteorologists to make for meteorologists to make forecasts and predict storms, and data for research.forecasts and predict storms, and data for research.
Each radiosonde contains a mailing bag with Each radiosonde contains a mailing bag with instructions. About 20% of the 75,000 radiosondes instructions. About 20% of the 75,000 radiosondes sent up each year in the US are found and returned. sent up each year in the US are found and returned.
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Technology Old – Technology Old – CommunicationsCommunications
Teletype communications room – Teletype communications room – Weather Bureau, Nashville, TNWeather Bureau, Nashville, TN
Operating a Operating a teletype circa teletype circa
1965.1965.
NOAA Weather Radio was NOAA Weather Radio was being installed along the being installed along the
coasts, but was not widely used coasts, but was not widely used across the country until the across the country until the
1970s. 1970s.
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Technology New – Technology New – CommunicationsCommunications
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Weather Ready Nation! Weather Ready Nation!
Data, Products, and Services to:Data, Products, and Services to:
Greatly reduce loss of life and injuryGreatly reduce loss of life and injury
• Enable communities to mitigate property loss Enable communities to mitigate property loss well in advance of threatening conditionswell in advance of threatening conditions
• Alert economic sectorsAlert economic sectorsto environmental risksto environmental riskswith sufficient lead timewith sufficient lead timeto limit or avoid impactsto limit or avoid impacts
Where We’re HeadedWhere We’re Headed
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ASOS
Forecasts & WarningsForecasts & Warnings• Based onBased on
– Numerical Model DataNumerical Model Data
– Automated Observations Automated Observations
– Doppler radar Doppler radar
• NWS & FAA TDWRNWS & FAA TDWR
– Remote SensingRemote Sensing
• Satellite PicturesSatellite Pictures
– Law EnforcementLaw Enforcement
– VolunteersVolunteers
– MediaMedia
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How a Forecast is MadeHow a Forecast is Made
How do meteorologists make forecasts?How do meteorologists make forecasts?
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How a Forecast was MadeHow a Forecast was Made
1) Forecaster 1) Forecaster Analyzes Analyzes past and past and current current state of state of atmosphereatmosphere
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How a Forecast was Made (cont.)How a Forecast was Made (cont.)
. . 2) Forecaster looks at forecast 2) Forecaster looks at forecast
guidance from several numerical guidance from several numerical weather prediction models and weather prediction models and develops mental image of develops mental image of forecastforecast
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How a Forecast was Made (cont.)How a Forecast was Made (cont.)
??
Especially difficult in the Especially difficult in the West because of the West because of the influence of complex influence of complex terrainterrain . .
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How a Forecast was Made (cont.)How a Forecast was Made (cont.)
Once forecaster created Once forecaster created mental image of mental image of forecast…forecast…
• Typed aviation forecastTyped aviation forecast
• Typed public forecastTyped public forecast
• Typed fire weather forecastTyped fire weather forecast
Forecaster could spend up Forecaster could spend up to 3 hours a day typing!to 3 hours a day typing!
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How a Forecast is MadeHow a Forecast is Made
3)3) Forecaster then Forecaster then creates or modifies creates or modifies grids to represent grids to represent what he/she thinks what he/she thinks will happen.will happen.
4)4) Computer then Computer then generates the words generates the words which the forecaster which the forecaster checks before checks before sending out.sending out.
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New Forecast MethodNew Forecast Method
• Observed and computer forecast guidance Observed and computer forecast guidance acts as base forecastacts as base forecast
• Forecaster then adjusts gridded model Forecaster then adjusts gridded model forecast forecast
• Terrain compensating algorithms are run to Terrain compensating algorithms are run to capture terrain effectscapture terrain effects
• Digital forecast database is source for Digital forecast database is source for traditional forecasts, new highly customized traditional forecasts, new highly customized forecastsforecasts
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Computer Forecasts are Input Directly into Computer Forecasts are Input Directly into Graphical Forecast Editing SoftwareGraphical Forecast Editing Software
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Forecasters edit gridded digital dataForecasters edit gridded digital data
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Gridded Forecast DatabaseGridded Forecast Database
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What Does “Gridded” Mean?What Does “Gridded” Mean?
That means in Clark That means in Clark County, there are County, there are about about 33503350 unique unique temperature forecasts, temperature forecasts, every hourevery hour
In this temperature field, the computer In this temperature field, the computer stores a unique temperature value for stores a unique temperature value for every 2.5 km “grid” box in the imageevery 2.5 km “grid” box in the image
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Compare the Amount of Data in the Compare the Amount of Data in the Grids, to the ZoneGrids, to the Zone
Each “zone” contains one 1 temperature Each “zone” contains one 1 temperature forecast per day, e.g. Highs 65 to 70forecast per day, e.g. Highs 65 to 70
Each “zone” contains several hundred Each “zone” contains several hundred temperature forecasts per temperature forecasts per hourhour
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Further “Old” vs. “New” Further “Old” vs. “New” comparisoncomparison
If we printed entire gridded forecast If we printed entire gridded forecast database for Nevada, it would take updatabase for Nevada, it would take up
~ 84,000 pages, which is ~ 84,000 pages, which is 168 reams!168 reams!
(Forecast is produced several times per (Forecast is produced several times per day)day)
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Not Restricted to Just Not Restricted to Just TemperatureTemperature
• TemperatureTemperature
• DewpointDewpoint
• RHRH
• WindWind
• SkySky
• WeatherWeather
• Probability of Probability of PrecipitationPrecipitation
• Snow amountsSnow amounts
• Rain amountsRain amounts
• Numerous Fire Weather Numerous Fire Weather ParametersParameters
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Data Is Available in Other FormatsData Is Available in Other Formats
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Data Is Available in Other Formats (cont.)Data Is Available in Other Formats (cont.)
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FORECASTINGFORECASTING
• PersistencePersistence
• ExperienceExperience
• Computer ModelingComputer Modeling
There are 3 basic methods of There are 3 basic methods of forecasting:forecasting:
•Not much is going to change.Not much is going to change.
•Tomorrow will be like today.Tomorrow will be like today.
•Works great a good deal of the time Works great a good deal of the time around here.around here.
•Not so good during active weather Not so good during active weather patterns such as wind storms during patterns such as wind storms during the spring, monsoon season, and the spring, monsoon season, and winter storms.winter storms.
PERSISTENCE:PERSISTENCE:
•Forecast what was seen before to Forecast what was seen before to repeat.repeat.
•This is good for 1 to 2 day forecasts.This is good for 1 to 2 day forecasts.
•Works great a lot of the time.Works great a lot of the time.
•Problem when something new happens.Problem when something new happens.
EXPERIENCE:EXPERIENCE:
•They are better than people past 3 days.They are better than people past 3 days.
•Works great most of the time.Works great most of the time.
•Problem when bad data gets put in or if Problem when bad data gets put in or if something really new occurs.something really new occurs.
MODELS:MODELS:
NWS Suite of Warning ServicesNWS Suite of Warning Services• Severe Weather WarningsSevere Weather Warnings
– Thunderstorm-type weatherThunderstorm-type weather
– Winter weatherWinter weather
– Fire WeatherFire Weather
– HurricanesHurricanes
– HydrologicHydrologic
– Air qualityAir quality
Key TermsKey Terms
• Advisory: Just so Advisory: Just so you know…you know…
• Watch: Stay Alert!Watch: Stay Alert!
• Warning: Take Warning: Take Cover/Action NOW!Cover/Action NOW!
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Custom ApplicationsCustom Applications
Power of database: you are not Power of database: you are not restricted by the products that restricted by the products that we give youwe give you
What specialized needs do you have?What specialized needs do you have?
National Weather Service7851 Dean Martin DriveLas Vegas, NV 89139
(702) [email protected]
www.weather.gov/lasvegas
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.LasVegas.gov
Tweet us at: #nwsvegas Tweet us at: #nwsvegas
or follow us at @NWSVegasSOOor follow us at @NWSVegasSOO
www.weather.gov/lasvegas
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.LasVegas.gov
Tweet us at: #nwsvegas Tweet us at: #nwsvegas
or follow us at @NWSVegasSOOor follow us at @NWSVegasSOO
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