Think Tank: A Definition Original meaning (1900-05): “brain”
Current meaning (1955-60): a body of experts, as a research organization, providing advice and ideas on specific national or commercial problems (OED)
My definition here: independent, private, non-partisan, non-profit research organizations, whose goal is to influence government policy making or implementation (500 TT in U.S.)
More on Definition
Independent: excluding policy centers at universities
Private: non-government, excluding CEA, CBO, LAO, etc.
Non-partisan but not necessarily non-ideological
Non-profit, excluding consulting firms such as MPR
All about policy
A Brief History of American Think Tanks
First generation: think tanks as policy research institutions Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (1910) Institute for Government Research (1916, Brookings) Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace (1919) Council on Foreign Relations (1921) American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (1943)
Second generation: the emergence of government contractors RAND Corporation (1948) Hudson Institute (1961) Urban Institute (1968)
A Brief History (continued)
The third generation: the rise of advocacy think tanks Center for Strategic and International Studies (1962) Heritage Foundation (1973) CATO Institute (1977)
The fourth generation: legacy-based think tanks Carter Center (1984) Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom (1994)
Three Kinds of Think Tanks “University without students:”
Quality academic research; focus on long-term impact; research fellow like professors
Examples: Brookings, AEI, Carnegie Endowment
Government contractors Funded by government department / agencies; address specific concerns of
policy-makers Examples: RAND, Urban Institute
Advocacy think tanks Research plus aggressive marketing; actively participate in policy debate Heritage, CATO
Political Orientation of Think Tanks
Conservative, libertarian, centrist, liberal, progressive
Right, center, left
University without Students: An Example
Brookings Institution “The Brookings Institution is an independent, nonpartisan
organization devoted to research, analysis, education, and publication focused on public policy issues in the areas of economics, foreign policy, and governance.”
3 Programs: economy, government, foreign policy; 6 policy centers
Rigorous academic research
Close relation with federal government
Government Contractor: An Example
RAND Corporation Mission: “RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and
decision-making through research and analysis.”
More than 1,600 full- and part-time employees, (85% research staff hold advanced degrees, with >65% having Ph.D's or M.D.'s. )
Research areas: Child Policy, Civil and Criminal Justice, Regional Studies, Drug Policy, Education, Health, Infrastructure, International Policy, National Security, Population & Aging, Science & Technology, Terrorism
Glorious history in 1950s: Von Neumann, Dantzig, Nash, Shapley, Schelling, Arrow, etc.
Advocacy Think Tanks: An Example
Heritage Foundation Mission: “formulate and promote conservative public policies based
on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.”
“The Foundation produces research and generates solutions consistent with its beliefs that are marketed to the Congress, the Executive Branch, the news media and others”
“We are not afraid to begin our sentences with the words ‘We believe’ because we do believe ……”
Research at Think Tanks: Examples
Nick Lardy (Brookings, IIE): China’s economy
William Gale & Peter Orszag (Brookings): “The Economic Effects of Long-Term Fiscal Discipline”
Michael Boskin (Hoover): Tax-deferred savings and the U.S. budget
David Neumark (PPIC): Effects of living wages
AnnaLee Saxenian (PPIC): Silicon Valley’s immigrant entrepreneurs
Research at Think Tanks: More Examples
Elisa Eiseman (RAND): “Cloning Human Beings: Recent Scientific and Policy Development”
Roland Sturm (RAND): The Health Risks of Obesity
Sheila R. Zedlewski and Jennifer Holland (Urban): “Work Activities of Current Welfare Recipients”
Daniel J. Mitchell et al (Heritage): “Pathway to Economic Growth and Tax Reform: Eliminating the Double Tax on Dividends”
Outlets of Think Tanks’ Works
Books, journal articles Monographs, reports, occasional papers Short pieces of policy brief Op-ed pieces
Other informal channels Conferences, panel discussions Policy training programs Media appearance
Funding Sources: Brookings (FY2002)
2%
2%
8%
9%
30%
49%
Miscellaneous
Government
Publications
CPPE
Endowment
Gifts and Grants
Total Revenue: $40,678,000
Funding Sources: RAND (FY2002)
0%
2%
2%
3%
3%
90%
Other
Contributions
Assets releasedfrom restrictions
Fees
Income / gains oninvestments
Contracts andgrants
Total Income: $186,808,000
Funding Sources: Heritage (FY2002)
1%
3%
3%
7%
27%
59%
Investment Income
Publications / Others
Bequests
Corporations
Foundation Grants
Individuals
Total Income: $27,539,833
Idea Producer or Broker?
Heritage Foundation Expenses, 2002
Brookings Institution Expenses, 2002
Research (40%)
Educational Programs (21%)
Media & Government Relations (20%)
Fundraising (16%)
Management & General (3%)
Economic Studies (37%)
Foreign Policy Studies (17%)
Governance Studies (15%)
CPPE (11%)
Publications (10%)
External Affairs (6%)
Communications (4%)
Impact of Think Tanks
National Journal’s list of 150 most influential 22 from think tanks Mass media (20), public interest groups (17), lobbyists
(16), lawyers (15), academics (14), etc.
Theories of political impact Elite theory Populist theory (“people are policy”)
The Revolving Door between Government and Think Tanks: Examples
Three secretaries in the Clinton administration landed at Brookings
Think tank alumnus in Bush administration Rice (HI), Chao (HF), Haass (BI), Perle (AEI)
President’s economic advisors: Larry Lindsey (AEI), Glen Hubbard (AEI) Martin Baily (BI, IIE), Gene Sperling (BI), Laura Tyson (IIE), Robert
Lawrence (BI, IIE), Joseph Stiglitz (BI) William Niskanen (Cato), { M. Boskin (HI), M. Feldstein (NBER) } Charles Schultz (BI), Arthur Okun (BI)
Others: Alan Blinder (BI), Alice Rivlin(BI)
Citations of Think Tanks in Media Think Tank Political
OrientationNumber of
Media Citations 2002
Number of Media Citations
2001
% change
1 Brookings Institution centrist 4,308 4,241 2%
2 Council on Foreign Relations
centrist 2,570 1,657 55
3 Heritage Foundation conservative 2,325 2,255 3
4 American Enterprise Institute
conservative 1,858 1,931 -4
5 Center for Strategic and International Studies
conservative 1,824 1,687 8
6 Cato Institute cons/libertarian
1,814 2,538 -29
7 RAND Corporation center-right 1,403 1,230 14
8 Carnegie Endowment centrist 1,167 1,171 0
9 Economic Policy Institute progressive 851 891 -4
10 Family Research Council conservative 726 1,183 -39
11 Urban Institute center-left 653 1,234 -47
12 National Bureau of Economic Research
centrist 606 1,976 -69
13 Hudson Institute conservative 603 885 -32
Citations of Think Tanks in Media (continued)
Think Tank Political Orientation
Number of Media Citations
2002
Number of Media Citations
2001
% change
14 Center for Public Integrity progressive 580 429 35
15 Manhattan Institute conservative 573 455 26
16 Hoover Institution conservative 523 585 -11
17 Washington Institute for Near East Policy
center-right 492 401 23
18 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
progressive 442 558 -21
19 Public Policy Institute of California
centrist 440 339 30
20 Milken Institute centrist 436 476 8
21 Institute for International Economics
centrist 387 390 -1
22 Freedom Forum centrist 354 395 -10
23 Center for Defense Information
progressive 347 571 -39
24 Institute for Policy Studies progressive 331 366 -10
25 Progressive Policy Institute
centrist 284 343 -17
Citations of Think Tanks in Media (continued)
Number of Media Citations by Ideology
Number of Media Citations
2002 2001
Conservative or Right-Leaning
12,141 (47%) 13,150 (47%)
Centrist 10,552 (41%) 10,988 (39%)
Progressive or Left-Leaning
3,204 (12%) 4,049 (14%)
Total 25,897 28,187
Determinants of Media Visibility
Rich and Weaver (2000): Money buys visibility Washington, D.C.-based think tanks generate more media
coverage Conservative think tanks are cited more often than liberal
ones, but not after funding resources are controlled for Media biases: WT and WSJ more likely to cover
conservative think tanks, and NYT covers centrist think tanks more often
Concluding Remarks
“[T]he ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else.” (Keynes, 1936)
Think tanks facilitate the dissemination of such ideas
Think tanks in China