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www.ekospolitics.ca
EKOS ACCURATELY PREDICTS ONTARIO LIBERAL
MAJORITY
[Ottawa – June 13, 2014] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 41st Ontario general
election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Kathleen
Wynne’s majority victory.1 Indeed, our final poll captured both of the frontrunners to within the
margin of error.
38.7
37.3
31.2
31.3
23.7
19.2 4
4.8
8.2
2
Other
EKOS Final Poll (all eligible voters)
Preliminary 2014 Ontario Election Results
EKOS final poll vs. Election results
BASE (FINAL POLL): Residents of Ontario; June 10-11, 2014 (n=1,311)Copyright 2014. No reproduction without permission.
We also succeeded in noting the relative stability of the campaign, which is why we were
confident in calling a Liberal victory as early as June 5th, noting that Wynne had an excellent shot
at a majority government.2 There was, however, an abrupt post-debate boost to Hudak as he
that saw his Progressive Conservatives leading on two separate nights. This surge quickly
subsided, however, and the results returned to their pre-debate levels. We made the majority call
the evening of June 11th. Among those firms who released results in the last week of the
campaign, all but one other firm saw it as leaning PC or too close to call.
The exact dynamics of how the popular vote translates into seats are complex and given our
deadlines and the relatively small sample sizes on a region-to-region basis, we opted not to
provide an official seat projection, stating simply that the Kathleen Wynne would likely win a
majority.
1 EKOS Research Associates, “An Overview of the Campaign and a Reasoned Guess at the Outcome”, June 11, 2014. Available online
at: http://goo.gl/BdPK7H
2 EKOS Research Associates, “Modest Listing in Wynne’s Ship Seems to Have Corrected”, June 5, 2014. Available online at:
http://goo.gl/Ge1vDC
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Lessons learned from “likely voter” model
In the later stages of the campaign, we provided a “likely voters” model to offer insights into the
vote intention of those who are most likely to show up at the ballot booth come Election Day.
While we tweaked this model several times throughout the campaign, the basic premise behind
this model involved calculating a score for each respondent that reflected the probability that
they would show up and vote on Election Day. The score was based a on a number of factors,
including past voting behaviour, self-rated likelihood of actually voting, knowledge of one’s
polling station location, age, and emotional engagement. Since it was safe assumption than only
about half of eligible voters would cast a ballot, we then isolated the 50 per cent of respondents
who received the highest scores and dropped the remaining cases.
In short, our likely voter model did not work the way we had hoped and we will not be using this
particular model again. We will be doing some more analysis around likely voters over the coming
weeks, but believe that a lighter and more conservative approach with the most clearly
documented linkages would make more sense.
Some readers may be asking why the likely voter model seemed to be penalizing NDP
supporters. NDP supporters consistently provided responses that suggested that they would be
less likely to vote come Election Day; they were younger, less likely to have voted in advance,
less likely to express enthusiasm for voting in general, less likely to know the location of their
polling station, less likely to have voted in past elections, and more likely to express
discouragement (rather than stronger emotions such as hope or anger). We had every reason to
believe that large numbers of NDP supporters would stay home on Election Day but, indeed, they
did not.
A note on reporting poll results
Finally, we would like to take this opportunity to offer up our views on how poll results were
presented in the final stages of the campaign. We believe that a clear and unambiguous call is an
important measure of election polling. It is not enough to simply produce poll numbers that just
happen to be in the same ballpark as the actual election results, particularly when these figures
come out weeks before the election itself.
We did not base our majority call on a single poll. Instead, it involved a reasoned conjecture
based on the patterns that were established through the campaign. Wynne enjoyed a modest,
but clear lead throughout most of the campaign. While it is true that we observed a significant
shift towards the PCs in the wake of the debate, this surge quickly receded and the results
promptly returned to their pre-debate levels. Furthermore, her key constituencies – most notably
Copyright 2014. No reproduction without permission. Page 3
women, university graduates and those in the Greater Toronto Area – were unwavering in their
support.
It was for these reasons that we were able to see the actual result coming. The patterns were
clear and consistent and, from the vantage point of our data, there was no justification for
vaguely deeming the election to be “too close to call”. There is a clear difference between seeing
and calling the outcome based on the overall trends in the data and having a single poll which
looks like the outcome, but where no such prediction is made.
Closing comments
In closing, we would like to thank the 6,243 Ontarians who generously took the time to
participate in our surveys over the course of this campaign. We applaud the candidates who had
the courage to throw their hats in the ring and we congratulate Kathleen Wynne on securing a
majority government. We congratulate the voters who had the commitment to actually show up
and be counted. We also thank our sponsors at iPolitics who have staked out an interest in a
more ambitious program of research. We also acknowledge the skill and commitment of our
colleagues and competitors who enter the arena of political polling in an era of diminished
resources and rising methodological challenges.
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Appendix 1: Aggregated Results (May 29-June 11, 2014)
Copyright 2014. No reproduction without permission.
36.0 33.6 18.3 8.2 3.9
Other
3438 36 36 35
38
29 3034
41
1720 20 18
15
7 9 10 85
0
10
20
30
40
50
Vote intention by gender/age
Women 18-44 45-64 65+Men
Gender Age
Q. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*
*Respondents were also asked if they had already voted. Figures include the responses of those who voted in advance polls or by special ballot.
BASE: Residents of Ontario; May 29 – June 11, 2014 (n=6,243)
Copyright 2014. No reproduction without permission.
36.0 33.6 18.3 8.2 3.9
Other
2630
48
353939
36
27
3431
21 22
1419 17
8 9 8 8 8
0
10
20
30
40
50
Vote intention by other demographics
College Born in Canada
Born Elsewhere
UniversityHigh School
Education Country of birth
Q. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*
*Respondents were also asked if they had already voted. Figures include the responses of those who voted in advance polls or by special ballot.
BASE: Residents of Ontario; May 29 – June 11, 2014 (n=6,243)
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36.0 33.6 18.3 8.2 3.9
Other
47
37
29 31 32
27
3236
45
32
17 1821
14
21
79 9
79
0
10
20
30
40
50
Vote intention by region
SuburbanGTA
Ottawa &Eastern Ontario
North & CentralOntario
SouthwestOntario
Toronto/CoreGTA
Q. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*
*Respondents were also asked if they had already voted. Figures include the responses of those who voted in advance polls or by special ballot.
BASE: Residents of Ontario; May 29 – June 11, 2014 (n=6,243)
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Appendix 2: Demographic Trends (May 29-June 11, 2014)
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3433
37 3634
31 3234
3633
38 37
3335
3639
36
4037
17 1817
1817
1820 20
15 16 17
7
10
78 8
97 8
6 6
9
52 3
46 6
3 3 3 4 3
3434
42
37
19
7
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
May 15 May 18 May 21 May 24 May 27 May 30 June 2 June 5 June 8 June 11
33.6 37.9 17.0 7.3 4
Other
Vote intention: MenQ. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?
BASE: Ontario (Men), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=2,983)
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40 3941 42
3940
36 35 36
41
2422
3027 27 26
32
36
252523
17 18
22 22 21 21 21
24
8
14
8 9 9 10 10
79
8 8
4
1
45
42
1 2 2
5 4
35
39
33 28
24
22
24
76
0
10
20
30
40
50
May 15 May 18 May 21 May 24 May 27 May 30 June 2 June 5 June 8 June 11
Vote intention: WomenQ. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*
38.4 29.4 19.7 8.9 4
OtherBASE: Ontario (Women), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=2,843)
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42
34 35
30
3537
34
37
25
30
26
34
3133 33
25 26
1821 22
23 22
19
23
27
21
9 9
1210
9 9
67
12
67
5
2 3 2
57
4
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
June 2 June 3 June 4 June 5 June 6 June 7 June 8 June 9 June 10 June 11
Vote intention: <45Q. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*
36.3 29.9 19.8 9.5 5
OtherBASE: Ontario (<45 years of age), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=1,167)
Copyright 2014. No reproduction without permission.
42
39
36
39 3938 37
3536
39
2830 30
2730
32
36 3735
20 2018
1920 21 21 20
17 18 19
6
8 9 9 109 9
7 8 8
542 2 3 3 3
2 24 4
3
34
40
35
3334
18
6
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
May 15 May 18 May 21 May 24 May 27 May 30 June 2 June 5 June 8 June 11
Vote intention: 45-64Q. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*
36.3 34.1 18.4 8.0 3
OtherBASE: Ontario (ages 45-64), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=2,325)
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34
40
3634
3634
36
33
3635 36
42
3840
4241
4442
4342
37
17 1614 13 14 13 14
17 17 17 16
5 5 5 5 6 5 54
57
31
43 3 2 2
4 4
33
3938
17
5
66 5
0
10
20
30
40
50
May 15 May 18 May 21 May 24 May 27 May 30 June 2 June 5 June 8 June 11
Vote intention: 65+Q. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*
35.0 41.3 14.8 5.0 4
OtherBASE: Ontario (≥65 years of age), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=2,323)
Copyright 2014. No reproduction without permission.
26
29
36
2927
20
27
23
34
25
3634 35
45 45 45
36
25
2223
15
19
2123
18
24 25
8
18
56
11 11 11
8
5 5
97
32
9 8
3 3
7
26
31
22
23
35
40
31
6
4
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
May 15 May 18 May 21 May 24 May 27 May 30 June 2 June 5 June 8 June 11
Vote intention: High SchoolQ. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*
26.3 39.4 21.3 7.7 5
OtherBASE: Ontario (Men), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=1,193)
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29
34
3132 32
27
24
36
3334
40
3335
32
36 36
39
29
2022
1719
2625
23 2321
9 911 11
8 96
810
7
10
5
2 3 3 23 2 2 1
53
3232 2831
40
34
27 22
9
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
May 15 May 18 May 21 May 24 May 27 May 30 June 2 June 5 June 8 June 11
Vote intention: CollegeQ. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*
29.9 36.4 21.5 9.2 3
OtherBASE: Ontario (Men), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=1,793)
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48
43
4951
47 47 47 4649 49 49
26
2927
2426
27 2728 28
30
1917
13 13
16 16 16 17
13 14 14
5
108 8
79 8
7 8 86
21
4 5 42 2 2 3 4
2
51
26 27
15
5
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May 15 May 18 May 21 May 24 May 27 May 30 June 2 June 5 June 8 June 11
Vote intention: UniversityQ. How do you plan to vote in the upcoming provincial election on June 12th?*
48.1 27.1 13.6 7.7 4
OtherBASE: Ontario (Men), May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=2,811)
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Appendix 3: Trends in Other Indicators (May 29-June 11, 2014)
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9.8 26.3 26.3 29.5 8.1
DK/NR Angry Discouraged Hopeful Happy
Emotions towards current governmentQ. When thinking about Kathleen Wynne's Liberal government, which of the following
emotions best describes how you feel?
0
10
20
30
40
June 1 June 2 June 3 June 4 June 5 June 6 June 7 June 8 June 9 June 10 June 11
BASE: Residents of Ontario; May 29 – June 11, 2014 (n=6,243)
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46.5
57.7
42.7
56.3
53.5
42.3
57.3
43.7
Wrong Direction Right Direction
October 3-5, 2011
October 3-5, 2011
May 29 – June 11, 2014
Direction of province/government
BASE: Residents of Ontario (half-sample each); May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=3,103/3,140)
Q. All things considered, would you say Ontario / the Government of Ontario is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?
May 29 – June 11, 2014
Note: In 2011, respondents were not given the option of skipping the question. The 2014 results have been adjusted to exclude those who did not provide valid responses.
Direction of Province
Direction of Provincial Government
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9.8 50.8 39.4
DK/NR Wrong Direction Right Direction
Direction of provinceQ. All things considered, would you say Ontario is moving in the right direction or the
wrong direction?
10 10 10 9 9 9 9 911
13
5451 51 52
54 5452
5047
44
37 38 40 3937 37
3941
4342
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
June 1 June 2 June 3 June 4 June 5 June 6 June 7 June 8 June 9 June 10 June 11
BASE: Residents of Ontario (half-sample); May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=3,103)
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9.2 52.4 38.4
DK/NR Wrong Direction Right Direction
Direction of provincial governmentQ. All things considered, would you say the Government of Ontario is moving in the right
direction or the wrong direction?
8 8 98 7 8
11 11 10 10
54
50
5653 53
51 50
55 54 54
3842
35
39 4042
39
3436 36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
June 1 June 2 June 3 June 4 June 5 June 6 June 7 June 8 June 9 June 10 June 11
BASE: Residents of Ontario (half-sample); May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=3,140)
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9.0
11.4
42.1
39.2
33.6
28.4
15.3
20.9
DK/NR Less likely Neither more nor less likely More likely
Impact of federal Conservative presence
BASE: Residents of Ontario; most recent data point May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=6,243)
* The wording of the question has changed slightly since 2011. In 2011, respondents were asked about the presence of a
“strong” majority Conservative federal government.
May 29 – June 11, 2014
October 3-5, 2011
Q. Does the presence of a majority Conservative federal government make you less or more likely to vote for a conservative choice in the next provincial election?*
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11.4 39.2 28.4 20.9
DK/NR Less likely Neither more nor less likely More likely
Impact of federal Conservative presenceQ. Does the presence of a majority Conservative federal government make you less or
more likely to vote for a Conservative choice in the next provincial election?
3841
3840 41
3938
4143
40
32
2928 28
2628 28
27 2628
2019
20 20
22 22 23 2220 19
10
20
30
40
50
June 1 June 2 June 3 June 4 June 5 June 6 June 7 June 8 June 9 June 10 June 11
BASE: Residents of Ontario; May 29-June 11, 2014 (n=6,243)