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EXECUTIVE SYSTEMS THINKING TRAINING
SEMINAR 3 March 2015
Robert Steele Systainability Asia / AtKisson Group
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Premise of this Seminar
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1. A systems perspec>ve helps us to understand what shapes the way society thinks and acts.
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2. By using a systems approach, we can beFer understand what lies underneath various social issues in order to develop long-‐term solu>ons.
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Seminar Objectives
1. Introduce systems thinking as an effec>ve problem analysis and solu>on approach.
2. Share some prac>cal systems thinking tools, methods, and techniques.
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Current And Past Clients Include: Levi Strauss & Co. • Ernst & Young • Nike • Bal>c 21 (the 11 na>ons of Northern Europe) • European Sustainable Development Network • Brother, Inc. (Japan) • Earth Charter Interna>onal • Swedish SIDA’s Advanced Interna>onal Training Programs • United Na>ons Division for Sustainable Development Egyp>an Na>onal Compe>>veness Council • Government of Singapore • Greater New Orleans, Inc. • SEIYU (Japan) • SERDP -‐ Strategic Environmental Research & Development Program (US Government) • Seliger Forum 2010 (Russia) • Sustainable Fashion Academy • States of Queensland, Victoria, NSW, and South Australia • Stockholm County • Sustainable SeaFle • Heinz Endowments • Toyota • UNEP • UNDP • Nile Basin Ini>a>ve • Bank of Indonesia • Volvo Cars
Robert Steel – Systainability Asia -‐ Part of A global network dedicated to sustainability strategy learning, and inspira?on
Global Affiliate and Associate Network
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A little Thumb wrestling
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Part 1 - What is Systems Thinking?
SYSTEMS
THINKING
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Important idea: “Good people can make bad or harmful decisions if the systems within which they are making those decisions are poorly designed.
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A system is a set of elements whose interconnec>ons determine their behavior.
What Is A System?
Systems are bound together by the laws of cause and effect, and governed by flows of informa>on, energy and materials.
Note: People give defini-on to systems based on an idea of what should happen at a given point in -me. Thus, systems have a purpose.
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Not a System A System
v
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Bigger more Complex Systems
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CEO’s individual concern about climate change
Shareholder desire for
profitability
Likelihood a CEO decides to open a coal fired power
plant
Cost to meet other
standards Expected
profitability of coal
Costs of other energy sources
Price per ton CO2
An example of system dynamics…
Source: Climate Interac>ve – Climate Leader Series; hFp://theclimateleader.org
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Would a new decision maker placed in the same system make a different decision?
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Some Insights
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A Systems Perspective
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A little background on System Thinking
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Systems Thinking helps us to . . . . . . move the focus away from events and pa5erns of behavior (which are symptoms of problems) and toward systemic structure and the underlying mental models
Adapted from: Senge, Peter, The Fieh Discipline, 1996.
Car Ownership
Transporta>on Op>ons
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Systems Thinking has a Special Language
• Source • Stock • Flows • Sinks • Feedback • Reinforcing • Balancing • Leverage Point
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Systems Thinking includes a Set of Tools
Stock & Flow Diagrams
System Iceberg Behavior Over Time Graphs
Causal Loop Diagrams
Compass
Ladder of Inference
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A System Story A System Story by BEE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDxOyJxgJeA
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COFFEE
BREAK
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Part 2 - The System Iceberg
The “iceberg” model of systemic rela>onships is a simple tool to begin to unravel complexity and discover root cause of behavior.
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The Iceberg brings two things of benefit to decision makers….
First – It helps focus our aFen>on on areas of high leverage. Second –the idea that the structure of a system actually determines the long-‐term behaviour of the system.
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The Iceberg
Events • Headlines in the Newspapers
• Urgent Emails • Fires to Put Out • Proposals • Disasters to deal with!
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The Iceberg
Events React & Respond
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The Iceberg
Events
Pa5erns of Behavior
Past Now
Indicator Trends
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The Iceberg
Events
Pa5erns of Behavior
Adapt & Anticipate
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Past Today Future
Something important
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The Iceberg
Events
Pa5erns of Behavior
Systemic Structures
Mindsets & Mental Models
Create & Re-Design
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Feedback – The Process Driving the System Behavior
Confidence in Government Policy
Positive Results
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The Iceberg
Events
Pa5erns of Behavior
Systemic Structures
Mindsets & Mental Models Transform
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The Compass … A Sustainability Thinking Frame ➤ N = Nature =
Environmental impact, resource use, waste, ecosystems and habitat, water, energy, climate change
➤ E = Economy = Produc>on, consump>on, employment and work, money, investment, debt, business, innova>on
➤ S = Society = Governance, equity, transparency, security, culture, ins>tu>onal management, levels of trust
➤ W = Wellbeing = Health, educa>on, self-‐expression, happiness, rela>onships, family, crea>vity, quality of life
It helps us think about issues from many different perspectives
© AtKisson, Inc., 2014 www.atkisson.com
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The Compass as a Tool for Systems Thinking
Environmental Impacts
Resource Use & Waste
Ecosystem Integrity
Efficiency & ProducOvity
Financial Aspects
Work, Jobs, IncenOves
Rights, Laws & JusOce Culture &
InsOtuOons
Social Trust & Public Safety
Personal Health & Happiness
Self-‐Development OpportuniOes
Families & RelaOonships
It helps us think about issues from many different perspectives
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Example – Traffic Problem in Bangkok
Events
Pa5erns of Behavior
Systemic Structures
Mindsets & Mental Models
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Iceberg Exercise Part 1
For Problem Analysis
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Exercise Instructions 1. Form groups of 4 – 5 2. Select a Topic that is prominent in the newspapers or on TV news right
now. 3. Use the Iceberg template (handout) to analyze the Topic from a systems
perspec>ve. a. What are the significant events in the past and now that we see, hear
about, etc. linked to this topic? b. What are the paFerns of behavior and trends we can iden>fy that
link to this event. c. What are some systemic structures that exist that generate these
behaviors d. What are the dominant mental models, beliefs, values, assump>ons?
4. Also, as you brainstorm the elements at the various levels, use the Compass to help you be more holis>c (i.e. think about all four points of the Compass)
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Some example Events to use
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Sharing Icebergs
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Iceberg Exercise Part 2
Leverage Points and solu>ons
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Small Actions can yield large results
A “leverage point” is a place in a system where a large change towards desired behavior or results can be accomplished by applying rela>vely few resources.
Artist: Gary Larson Picture source: hFp://thwink.org/sustain/glossary/LeveragePoint.gif
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The Iceberg
Events React and Respond
Pa5erns of Behavior
Systemic Structures
Mindsets & Mental Models
Adapt, Anticipate, Plan
Creative & Design
Transform
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Exercise Instructions 1. Use the Iceberg template (handout) to find the best
leverage points for whole system change at each level. • How would you respond & react to events (short term
solu>on)? • What will you do to be proac>ve on the paFerns and trends
you see by an>cipa>ng, planning and adap>ng? • What will you do to create and design different system
structures and interac>ons (dynamics)? • How to transform people’s mental models and mindsets that
lie at the very root cause of these issues (by designing or keeping in place these systemic structure that generate the behavior paFerns and trends that we see)?
2. Finally, circle the top three ideas in the lower sec>on that has the highest leverage in terms of changing the system and avoiding the paFerns of behavior that you don’t want to see.
Increasin
g Leverage
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Example – Our Traffic Issue in Bangkok
Events
Pa5erns of Behavior
Systemic Structures
Mindsets & Mental Models
React and Respond
Adapt, Anticipate, Plan
Creative & Design
Transform
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Part 3 – Causal Diagrams
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Causal Diagrams help in 3 ways…
1. Test and clarify your thinking 2. Enroll people in ac>on towards a goal 3. Discover new allies
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Efforts spent on gepng press coverage
Visibility of Projects Number of
people interested in the NGO’s projects
Number of people / organiza>ons, etc. suppor>ng the NGO’s projects
Quality of people wan>ng to work for the NGO
Cumula>ve Experience of the NGO
Funds available for Projects
Capacity of NGO to implement effec>ve projects
Posi>ve results of the projects
Causal Diagram Example of NGO Success
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Causal Diagram Education Improvement Example
Overall PISA Test Scores & Country Ranking
Percep>on of Thailand’s Educa>on System by
Public
Ability of students to successfully take the Test
Students’ comprehension and mastery of subject maFer
Opportuni>es for students to apply theore>cal learning in relevant life situa>ons
Effec>veness of Government’s Educa>on Policy & Implementa>on
Capacity of Teachers for transforma>ve teaching &
learning
Curriculum
Extent of Transforma>onal Teaching Pedagogy applied in schools
Thailand’s Compe>>veness
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A Causal Diagram Story Example Biking in Bangkok
Number of people biking to work
Number of bikers visible on the streets
Number of people interested in biking
Number of bikers organized to improve biking in the city
Number of bike lanes
Driver awareness of bikers
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Some youth examples (Singapore Youth Environmental Envoys Program)
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Corporate example - Bang Negara Indonesia (BNI) Sustainability Team
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Summary & Closing
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Remember…. The structure of the systems determines its behavior!
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A Systems approach provides us . . .
Ø Deeper Insight: “Understand components and their links in the system, you will understand its behavior.”
Ø More effec>ve and long-‐term Leverage: “Change a component or link in the system, and you will change the system behavior.”
Ø BeFer Solu>ons: “Solving problems almost always involves changing systems (iden-fy and change the limi-ng factor.”
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13 Habits of a Systems Thinker
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Comments, Questions?
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Systainability Asia / AtKisson Group
ATKISSON SUSTAINABILITY SYSTEMS ACCELERATOR
Tools, Methods and Processes to Support Sustainable Development and Transforma-onal Change.
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SYSTAINABILITY ASIA / ATKISSON GROUP
www.systainabilityasia.com
Thank you for your Attention & Participation!