How to Predict a Serial ArsonistEva Ljungkvist Björn Granvik
Dan Granvik !former County Sheriff’s Department Special Unit focusing on Organized Crime & Repeat Offenders
Eva Ljungkvist !Fire protection engineer Arson investigator i.e. Fire-nerd
Björn Granvik !Civil Engineer Programmer i.e. IT-nerd
• Like most peoplehabits, patterns, …
• Modus operandi
• Evidence?
The Serial Arsonist
Copper
High risk?
© Guillaume Baviere, Flickr
Method Triangulation
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Timings
Device Primed Device Ignited Fire Discovered
Case 33 23:19
Case 34 07:12
In the Head of Dan
© TheKarenD, Flickr
In the head of an Arsonist?
• Data is too complex
• …and hidden
• Power in relationships
© Jenny Spadafora, Flickr
A Graph• Node
”noun”
• Relationship”structure”
• Properties
Aname: ”Björn” headsize: 60
technology: ”Neo4j”
strength: 10
B
LIKES
C USES
name: ”Eva”
USES
Dproject: ”Helmuth”
USED_IN
HAS_MEMBER
Pattern Matching
A
B C
Pattern Matching
An example
Hospital
Arson Device
name: ”Heimlich Hospital” adress: ”21 Prune Street" city: ”Snicket Town"
lives_at House A
name: ”Hus A” adress: ”22 Prune Street" city: ”Snicket Town"
description: ”Toarulle”
Fire
description: ”Big poff” with
happened_at
Timings
name: ”Count Olaf”
next_to
started
Example Queries◦ Do we have a pattern, a serial arsonist?!◦ What new targets? High vs. low risk?!◦ Where and when should we apply preventive
measures?
How to Predict?
◦ Crossover ◦ Support complex
world descriptions ◦ Usability
© Moyan Brenn, Flickr
Results so far◦ Weather conditions!◦ Time frame!◦ Trends of arson !◦ Location & arson device!◦ High risk objects & the need of fire protection!◦ Worst case scenario & the need of resources!◦ Physical security & immediate surroundings
Serial
Eva Ljungkvist!
!
http://evasbrandblogg.se/
Björn Granvik!
!
@bjorngranvik
http://bit.ly/bjorngranvikblog
Thanks!
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