HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Hydrologic Cycle – will it remain stationary?
Primary Variables of interest:
Temperature
Precipitation
Evapotranspiration
Groundwater/Surface Watre
Saltwater Intrusion
Implications for: Water Management, Natural
Systems
Energy
Agriculture
Tourism, Transportation
Health
SOLAR RADIATION
Evaluation of Downscaled Climate Model Information for FloridaJayantha Obeysekera (‘Obey’)Chief Modeler, SFWMDAffiliate Research Professor, CES, FAU
Jayantha Obeysekera (‘Obey’)Chief Modeler, SFWMDAffiliate Research Professor, CES, FAU
Hydrology of the Everglades in the Context of Climate Change Workshop March 29-30, 2012, FAU Davie Campus
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Research publications
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Everglades Restoration – Will traditional planning approach work?
Natural System Managed System CERP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
General Circulation Models
(GCMs)
Observed Climate Data
Is there evidence that climate is changing in
Florida? How well are south Florida’s climate and
teleconnectionsrepresented by climate
models?
How do climate projections affect water resources management?
Simulation of Late 20th Century
21st Century Climate
Projections
Downscale (Statistical & Dynamical) global information to regional information
Using Climate Change Information
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Climate Projection UncertaintiesIn
tern
alVa
riabi
lity
Gen
eral
Cir
cula
tion
Mod
elDownscaling
Ice
Shee
t Dyn
amic
s
Scenarios
GCM(IPCC, 2007)
Statistical
Dynamical
B1 A1T B2 A1B A2 A1FI
1.1-2.9 (○C)
1.4-3.8 (○C)
1.4-3.8 (○C)
1.7-4.4 (○C)
2.0-5.4 (○C)
2.4-6.4(○C)
0.18-0.38 (m)
0.20-0.45 (m)
0.20-0.43 (m)
0.21-0.48 (m)
0.23-0.51 (m)
0.26- 0.59 (m)
BCM2
C
onst
ruct
ed A
nalo
gues
(CA
)
Bia
s Cor
rect
ion
and
Spat
ial
Dow
nsca
ling
(BC
SD)
W
eath
er G
ener
ator
s
Reg
iona
l Clim
ate
Mod
els (
RC
Ms)
Climate Change Implications in Water Resources Planning: Scenario based approaches Use all models Model Culling?
CGHRCGMRCNCM3CSMK3ECHOGFGOALSGFCM20GFCM21GIAOMINCM3IPCM4MIHRMIMRMPEH5NCCCSMNCPCM
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
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1 WEST PALM BEACH INTERNA 2 DAYTONA BEACH INTL AP 3 INGLIS 3 E 4 SAINT LEO 5 VENUS 6 DOWLING PARK 1 W 7 PENSACOLA REGIONAL AP 8 JACKSONVILLE INTL AP 9 MARINELAND 10 MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AP 11 ST PETERSBURG 12 MELBOURNE WFO 13 MOORE HAVEN LOCK 1 14 TAMIAMI TRAIL 40 MI BEN 15 LYNNE 16 ORTONA LOCK 2 17 PARRISH 18 PORT MAYACA S L CANAL 19 ST LUCIE NEW LOCK 1 20 LAKELAND 21 PENNSUCO 5 WNW 22 CLEWISTON 23 CANAL POINT GATE 5 24 FOLKSTON GA25 KEY WEST INTL AP 26 NICEVILLE 27 TALLAHASSEE WSO AP 28 BELLE GLADE HRCN GT 4 29 LISBON 30 NORTH NEW RVR CANAL 2 31 GRACEVILLE 1 SW 32 BRISTOL 33 FARGO GA34 APALACHICOLA AIRPORT
35 VENICE 36 BOCA RATON 37 FORT MYERS PAGE FIELD A 38 COOLIDGE GA39 WOODRUFF DAM 40 MIAMI WSO CITY 41 RAIFORD STATE PRISON 42 VERO BEACH 4 SE 43 BLACKMAN 44 BROOKSVILLE 7 SSW 45 ORLANDO INTL AP 46 ORLANDO WSO AIRPORT 47 LIGNUMVITAE KEY 48 LOXAHATCHEE 49 GRADY 50 OKEECHOBEE 51 LAMONT 6 WNW 52 ORANGE CITY 53 BRANFORD 54 GAINESVILLE 3 WSW 55 BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL 56 CROSS CITY 2 WNW 57 KISSIMMEE 2 58 MONTICELLO 5 SE 59 PANAMA CITY 5 N 60 BAINBRIDGE GA61 TAMIAMI CANAL 62 BAINBRIDGE GA INTL PAPER63 VERO BEACH MUNI ARPT 64 PENSACOLA WB CITY 65 PANAMA CITY 2 66 VERNON 67 NORTH NEW RIVER CANAL 1 68 WAUSAU
-86 -84 -82 -80
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flx
fly
Alachua
Apopka
Arcadia
Avalon
Balm
Belle Glade
Bronson
Brooksville
Carrabelle
Citra
Clewiston
Dover
Fort Lau
Frostproof
Fort Pierce
Hastings
Homestead
Immokalee
Indian River
Jay
KenansvilleLake Alfred
Live Oak Macclenny
Marianna
Monticello
North Port
Ocklawaha
Okahumpka
Ona
Palmdale
Pierson
Putnam Hall
Quincy
Sebring
Umatilla
1 Alachua2 Apopka3 Arcadia4 Avalon5 Balm6 Belle Glade7 Bronson8 Brooksville9 Carrabelle10 Citra11 Clewiston12 Dover13 Fort Lauderdale14 Frostproof15 Fort Pierce16 Hastings17 Homestead18 Immokalee19 Indian River20 Jay21 Kenansville22 Lake Alfred23 Live Oak24 Macclenny25 Marianna26 Monticello27 North Port28 Ocklawaha29 Okahumpka30 Ona31 Palmdale32 Pierson33 Putnam Hall34 Quincy35 Sebring36 Umatilla
USGS map
FAWN
COAPS
USGS
UCF - extremes
PRISM
SFWMD
Validation Data
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
GCM Resolution (Land sea mask) in Florida
Uncertainties in GCM predictions due to:
Poor resolution – South Florida not even modeled in some GCMs; greater errors at smaller scales
From IPCC AR4-WG1, Ch. 8 - Simulation of tropical precipitation, ENSO, clouds and their response to climate change, etc.
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Statistically Downscaled Data for US (1/8 degree) – BCSD/BCCA methods
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL CCSMHADCM3link to European
Prudence
CGCM3
1971-2000 current 2040-2070 futureProvide boundary conditions
MM5Iowa State/PNNL
RegCM3UC Santa CruzICTP
CRCMQuebec,Ouranos
HADRM3Hadley Centre
RSMScripps
WRFNCAR/PNNL
CAM3Time slice
50km
GFDLTime slice
50 km
NARCCAP Scenario & Model Suite
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
GCM Skill for Florida
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Projected Temperature Change from AOGCMs (for 2050) – Posterior Distribution
•The vertical bars correspond to the percentiles, 5% and 95% of the posteriordistributions of temperature change for b1,a1b, and a2 scenarios (red, black and blue)
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Future Projections – Temperature & Precipitation
all modelsensemble mean
Tº
P
BCSD
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Change: Magnitude & Seasonality
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Everglades
%Change in Mean Annual Precip.
Cha
nge
in M
ean
Ann
ual T
emp.
2041:2070 versus 1971:2000
b1A1bA2
BCSD
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Spatial Trends
Temperature
BCSD
Latitude increasing
PrecipitationLatitude increasing
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Changes in duration of “dog days” & “freezing temperatures”
Dog days – Mean Number of days average above 80º FHistorical
Change from1970-1999to 2040-2069
CGCM3-CRCM HADCM3-HRM3
Absolute ValueChange from1970-1999to 2040-2069
Freezing – Mean Number of days minimum below 32º F
Absolute ValueChange from1970-1999to 2040-2069
Change from1970-1999to 2040-2069
BCCA
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Temperature
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Precipitation
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
BiasTemperature
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
BiasPrecipitation
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
ChangeTemperature
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
ChangePrecipitation
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
ChangeTemperature
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
ChangePrecipitation
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Model skill: Precipitation Extremes (Rainfall Depth – Duration)
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
By 2050 (findings to date - may change as science evolves)
Variable Global ModelsStatistically
Downscaled Data Dynamically
Downscaled Data
Average Temperature
1 to 1.5ºC 1 to 2ºC 1.6 to 2.4ºC
Precipitation -10% to +10% -5% to +5% -3 to 6 inches
Reference Crop Evapotranspiration
3 to 6 inches*
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Water Supply ThreatsPrecipitation & Temperature Change Sensitivity
(2050 with Climate Change) minus 2050 (CERP with CC) minus CERP0
*Surface Ponding decrease > 0.3 feet
CC change: Precipitation decrease of 10% while potential evapotranspiration (PET) was estimated using an increase the daily temperature by 1.5°Celsius. The exact impact of global climate change on evapotranspiration is not known and therefore a simple temperature based method was used to estimate the change in solar radiation for computing PET
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Ocean Land Atmosphere Model (RAMAS) Team at RSMAS:
• Dr. Brian Soden
• Dr. Amy Clement
• Dr. Robert Walko
• Dr. Craig Mattocks
• Roque Vinicio Cespedes (MS student)
How will landusechanges affect micro-climate?
Global Model with local mesh
refinement
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Summary
Resolutions of GCMs inadequate to capture hydro-meteorology of Florida peninsulaSkills of models for regional climate
information may not be adequate, yet. More work is need to verify and improve the methods/models.Need to work together on a “unified set of
climate scenarios” for Florida.
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Questions?
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Extra slides
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Tropical Storms & Climate Change
Premature to conclude that human activities have had detectable impact on hurricane activity
Tropical cyclones to shift towards strong storms (2-11% intensity increase by 2100)
Decrease in global frequency of tropical cyclones (6-34%)
Increase in the frequency of the most intense cyclones
Increase in rainfall rate, 20% within 100 km of storm center
Knutson et. al, nature geoscience, 2010
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Natural Variability (Teleconnections)Rainfall vs. El Nino & La NinaRainfall patterns
Lake OkeechobeeInflow
Tropical storm patterns
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
What is OLAM?
• Ocean Land Atmosphere Model
• New, full-physics non-hydrostaticEarth System Model based onRegional Atmospheric ModelingSystem (RAMS)
• Unstructured grid (triangular orhexagonal mesh)
• Local mesh refinement instead ofnesting: two-way seamlesscommunication betweenregional/mesoscale and globalportions of grid domain throughconservative advection and turbulenttransport
35
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Florida - Main Observations
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
number of wet days during the dry season –POR
May precipitation throughout the state –POR and especially post-1950. May be linked to changes in start of the wet season.
Urban heat island effect – urban (and drained) areas Tave and number of dog days for wet
(warm) season especially post-1950 Decrease in DTR ( Tmin > Tmax) Annual maximum of Tave and Tmin for all
seasons in POR and especially post-1950
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
GEV parameters of annual maxima
Location Scale Shape
Duration = 6-hours
Duration = 24 hours
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
BiasTemperature
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
ChangeTemperature
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
BiasPrecipitation
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
ChangePrecipitation
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Bias
Temperature
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Bias
Precipitation
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
at http://rcpm.ucar.edu
Regional Climate Change Projections from Multi-Model Ensembles (Tebaldi et al., 2008)
A Bayesian approach
Reward models with respect to BIAS (w.r.t. current climate) and CONVERGENCE (consensus on future projections)
23 Models, SRES scenarios A2(high), A1B (midrange), B1(low)
Posterior distribution of precipitation & temperature for each season & future decades
MODELLikelihood:Observed: X0 ~ N[μ, −λ0
-1]GCM (current): Xi ~ N[μ, −λi
-1]GCM(future): Yi ~ N[ν, −(θλi)-1]Priors:μ, ν ~ U(-∞,+ ∞ )λi ~ Γ (a,b), θi ~ Γ (c,d)