The Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction (LAMP):15 January 2002 An Innovative Methodological Approach to the Problem of Predictive Analysis
Briefing SequenceBackground of LAMPPhilosophical basis for LAMPThe 12 Steps of the LAMP ProcessLimitations of the LAMPPotential Applications for LAMPConclusions
Background of LAMPDeveloped by Dr. Jonathan Lockwood in 1992 while in DCI Exceptional Intelligence Analyst ProgramUtilized by numerous graduate students in JMIC as core methodology in Masters Degree thesesSoftware exists in early prototype onlyFirst published in Defense Intelligence Journal in Fall 1994
Philosophical Basis of LAMP THE FUTURE IS:Not PredeterminedThe Sum Total of All Interactions of Free WillA Dynamic Spectrum of Constantly Changing Relative Probabilities
The 12 Steps of LAMPDetermine the Predictive IssueSpecify the Actors Bearing on the ProblemConduct in-depth study of perceptions and intentions of each actorSpecify courses of action for each actorDetermine the major scenariosCalculate the number of alternate futures
Linkages Within the LAMP Method
The 12 Steps of LAMP (Continued)Do pairwise comparison of alternate futuresRank order the alternate futuresAnalyze consequences of alternate futuresDetermine focal events for alternate futuresDevelop indicators for each focal eventAssess the potential for transposition between alternate futures
The Concept of the Analytic Map
Scenario Status quo
A
B
C
Likely Outcome
Alternative Futures
Domestic Socio-Economic / Environmental
Domestic Political
Military
Diplomatic
Economic PerformanceStateConfiguration andInterstatePerformance andPosture of MilitaryAnimosity orCohesionEstablishmentsAmityDemographic PressuresLeadershipGlobalizationGlobalizationand DeformitiesGenerationalChangeState Performance andIdeas and LeadershipReceptivity toCohesion IdeologiesGenerationalU.S. PresenceChallengeor InfluenceEnvironmental CapacityDemographicPressures andDeformitiesGlobalizationReceptivity to U.S. Influence or Presence
Limitations of LAMPExponential explosion problem with alternate futuresAnalyst can identify most likely future, but cannot assign a quantifiable probability of occurrence for each futureLittle allowance for ambiguity
Potential Applications for LAMPIndications and WarningEstimative IntelligenceCommon analytical method for intelligenceComputerized analytic tool kitTrainingInterface between intelligence, academia and public policy communitiesTactical intelligence (?)
ConclusionsLAMP does not grant the gift of prophecyLAMP is not an infallible methodLAMP does provide a logical and powerful method for analyzing the futures many possible paths
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