The Lockwood Analytic The Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction Method for Prediction (LAMP): (LAMP): 15 January 2002 15 January 2002 An Innovative Methodological Approach to the Problem of Predictive Analysis
The Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction (LAMP):15 January
2002 An Innovative Methodological Approach to the Problem of
Predictive Analysis
Briefing SequenceBackground of LAMPPhilosophical basis for
LAMPThe 12 Steps of the LAMP ProcessLimitations of the
LAMPPotential Applications for LAMPConclusions
Background of LAMPDeveloped by Dr. Jonathan Lockwood in 1992
while in DCI Exceptional Intelligence Analyst ProgramUtilized by
numerous graduate students in JMIC as core methodology in Masters
Degree thesesSoftware exists in early prototype onlyFirst published
in Defense Intelligence Journal in Fall 1994
Philosophical Basis of LAMP THE FUTURE IS:Not PredeterminedThe
Sum Total of All Interactions of Free WillA Dynamic Spectrum of
Constantly Changing Relative Probabilities
The 12 Steps of LAMPDetermine the Predictive IssueSpecify the
Actors Bearing on the ProblemConduct in-depth study of perceptions
and intentions of each actorSpecify courses of action for each
actorDetermine the major scenariosCalculate the number of alternate
futures
Linkages Within the LAMP Method
The 12 Steps of LAMP (Continued)Do pairwise comparison of
alternate futuresRank order the alternate futuresAnalyze
consequences of alternate futuresDetermine focal events for
alternate futuresDevelop indicators for each focal eventAssess the
potential for transposition between alternate futures
The Concept of the Analytic Map
Scenario Status quo
A
B
C
Likely Outcome
Alternative Futures
Domestic Socio-Economic / Environmental
Domestic Political
Military
Diplomatic
Economic PerformanceStateConfiguration andInterstatePerformance
andPosture of MilitaryAnimosity
orCohesionEstablishmentsAmityDemographic
PressuresLeadershipGlobalizationGlobalizationand
DeformitiesGenerationalChangeState Performance andIdeas and
LeadershipReceptivity toCohesion IdeologiesGenerationalU.S.
PresenceChallengeor InfluenceEnvironmental
CapacityDemographicPressures andDeformitiesGlobalizationReceptivity
to U.S. Influence or Presence
Limitations of LAMPExponential explosion problem with alternate
futuresAnalyst can identify most likely future, but cannot assign a
quantifiable probability of occurrence for each futureLittle
allowance for ambiguity
Potential Applications for LAMPIndications and WarningEstimative
IntelligenceCommon analytical method for intelligenceComputerized
analytic tool kitTrainingInterface between intelligence, academia
and public policy communitiesTactical intelligence (?)
ConclusionsLAMP does not grant the gift of prophecyLAMP is not
an infallible methodLAMP does provide a logical and powerful method
for analyzing the futures many possible paths
