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Financial ManagerialTechnical Analysis and Portfolio
Selman Kaymaz
Technical Analysis• Technical analysis is the attempt to forecast stock prices on
the basis of market-derived data.• Technicians (also known as quantitative analysts or chartists)
usually look at price, volume and psychological indicators over time.
• They are looking for trends and patterns in the data that indicate future price movements.
Aims
• Analysis of statistics generated by market activity such as past price and volume to come up with reasonable outcome in future using charts as a primary tool.
• I take a long position? Should I take a short position? What is going to be the price tomorrow, next week or next year?
Two major types of analysis for predicting the performance of a company’s stock
fundamental technical
Technical looks for peaks, bottoms, trends, patterns, and other
factors affecting a stock’s price movement makes a buy/sell decision based on those factors
Assumptions The market discounts everything Prices move in trends History tends to repeat itself
What is Technical Analysis?
• Method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by Market activity Past Prices Volume
• Do not attempt to measure intrinsic value • Instead look for patterns and indicators on charts
to determine future performance
• Technicians believe that securities move in very predictable trends and patterns
• Trends continue until something happens to change the trend
• Until that change takes place, price levels are predictable
Advantages of Technical Analysis
• Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis is not heavily dependent on financial accounting statements
– Problems with accounting statements: • Lack information needed by security analysts • Many psychological and other non-quantifiable factors
do not show up in financial statements
Type of Charts
Bar Chart Line Chart Candle Stick Charting Point and Figure Chart
• Now, we apply the chart tools tool on our portfolio.
TURKCELL • Turkcell is the leading mobile phone operator of Turkey, based in Istanbul. The company has
34.4 million subscribers as of September 30, 2011.• In February 1994, Turkcell started Turkey's first GSM network. In Q3 2012, it had a market
share of 52,4%.• Turkcell is the first Turkish company to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange, where its
shares have been traded since July 11, 2000 along with trading on the Istanbul Stock Exchange.
Last 10,43 USD
High 10,55 USD
Low 10,37 USD
Previous Close 10,26 USD
Volume 0,00 USD
Change -0,17 USD
Change % 1,61 %
Yearly High 12,08 USD
Yearly Low 7,73 USD
1 USD =2,8475TL
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE • TKC
Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS is a converged communication and technology services provider in Turkey. It is engaged in establishing and operating a Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) network in Turkey and regional states. The Company comprises the following main reportable segments: Turkcell, Euroasia, Belarusian Telecom all of which are GSM operator in their countries and Turkcell Superonline which provides fixed broadband services. Operations mainly include companies operating in telecommunication and betting businesses and companies providing internet and broadband services, call center and other services.
Bar Chart
Some of the most popular type of chartsAdvantage is that it shows the high, low, open and close for each days
TURKCELL Bar Chart
TURKCELL Line Chart
Candle Stick Charting
The open and close range are represented by rectangle called the real body (black for a close under the open, white for a close over the open). The lines above and below the real body are called shadows. The top of the upper shadow is the session high and the bottom of the lower shadow is the session low.Following a white candlestick in an uptrend the market sharply higher on the opening and then closes unchanged from the prior session’s close.Following a black candlestick in a downtrend the market gaps sharply lower on the opening and then closes unchanged from the prior session’s close.
TURKCELL Candle Stick Patterns
TURKCELL Point and Figure Chart
Drawing Point & Figure Charts
• Point & Figure charts are independent of time.
• An X represents an up move.• An O represents a down move.• The Box Size is the number of points
needed to make an X or O.• The Reversal is the price X change needed
to recognize a change in direction.• Typically, P&F charts use a 1- XO O X point
box and a 3-point reversal.
Seasonality Chart of TKC
Trends• The meaning of trend in finance isn't all that different from the general definition of the
term - a trend is really nothing more than the general direction.• A trend represents a consistent change in prices (i.e. a change in investor’s expectations) • A trendline is a simple charting technique that adds a line to a chart to represent the trend
in the market or a stock.
Support and Resistance • Support level is a price level where the price tends to find
support as it is going down• Resistance Level is a price level where the price tends to
find resistance as it is going up• Support and resistance analysis is an important part of
trends because it can be used to make trading decisions and identify when a trend is reversing