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A joint report, New Tin Supply, by ITRI and Greenfields Research analyses 70 tin mine projects, assessing their geological and technical merits and making calculations of potential operating and capital costs, as well as considering the investment suitability of the countries and regions where the projects are based. The report shows that a few projects have progressed quite rapidly to feasibility study stage over recent years. However, for future supply requirements to be met, much more investment will be required as the rest of the project pipeline is still early stage, and faces combinations of technical, financial and political challenges.
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ITRI Limited Unit 3 Curo Park Frogmore St Albans Hertfordshire AL2 2DD UK
Tel: +44 (0) 1727 875544 ● Fax: +44 (0) 1727 871341 Web: www.itri.co.uk ● Email: [email protected] REGISTERED IN ENGLAND No. 2994115
02 October 2014
Good and bad news on tin project pipeline
A joint report, New Tin Supply, by ITRI and Greenfields Research analyses 70 tin mine projects,
assessing their geological and technical merits and making calculations of potential operating and
capital costs, as well as considering the investment suitability of the countries and regions where the
projects are based. The report shows that a few projects have progressed quite rapidly to feasibility
study stage over recent years. However, for future supply requirements to be met, much more
investment will be required as the rest of the project pipeline is still early stage, and faces
combinations of technical, financial and political challenges.
Good news – lots of tin in safe places
Potentially more than five million tonnes of tin, mainly in relatively low-risk countries, is available for
extraction. JORC or NI-43-101 compliant resources of 1.99 million tonnes of contained tin are
identified, while less reliable historical estimates or exploration targets for projects with no current
compliant resource add up to another 3.2 million tonnes.
If all the projects were developed as mines, they would have a combined annual production capacity
of some 218,000 tonnes of tin per year. 36% of this production could come from countries with a high
level of investment suitability (based on rankings from Fraser Institute, Transparency International,
World Bank and World Economic Forum), compared to only 2% of actual mine production in 2013.
Problems and risks – low grades, high costs, few new discoveries
However most of the projects are too low quality to take off in current market conditions and very little
effort is being made to find better ones.
The estimated capital cost of developing all the projects surveyed is US$8.4 billion, or $38,000 for
every annual tonne of mine capacity. Although this investment would also generate substantial
revenues from co-product production of metals such as zinc, copper, tungsten, tantalum and precious
metals – equivalent to another 99,000 tpy of tin - the tin grades are in many cases still too low to
generate an adequate return.
ITRI Limited Unit 3 Curo Park Frogmore St Albans Hertfordshire AL2 2DD UK
Tel: +44 (0) 1727 875544 ● Fax: +44 (0) 1727 871341 Web: www.itri.co.uk ● Email: [email protected] REGISTERED IN ENGLAND No. 2994115
The median feed grade for all the projects is 0.4% Sn, well below the average for current hard-rock
mines, with the result that median cash operating costs (net of by-product credits) are likely to be
more than 50% higher than the median for current mines.
Another stark statistic from the survey is that less than 40% of potential production would come from
"greenfield" deposits which have not been mined on a significant industrial scale in the past. The rest
is accounted for by "brownfields" (re-treatment of tailings from old mines – something which is
technically challenging and has not yet been achieved on a significant scale) or "greyfields" (potential
re-openings of old mines). Only 4 of the 70 projects were discovered after 1985, the year of the tin
crisis price collapse.
Conclusions – stressed project pipeline needs reinforcement
A small sub-set of the projects is moving ahead, but the majority will probably remained stalled unless
market conditions improve significantly. In all, the tin mine project pipeline is not big enough or
sufficiently advanced to meet future supply requirements. In addition, the stressed nature of the tin
project pipeline suggests that there is considerable scope for exploration for new high quality tin
deposits.
A small sub-set of the projects is moving ahead, but the majority will probably remained stalled unless
market conditions improve significantly. In all, the tin mine project pipeline is not big enough or
sufficiently advanced to meet future supply requirements. In addition, the stressed nature of the tin
project pipeline suggests that there is considerable scope for exploration for new high quality tin
deposits.
About ITRI and Greenfields Research:
ITRI is the world's foremost authority on tin with over 80 years’ experience in tin related
technologies. It is a membership based organisation representing major tin producers and
smelters and is the premier source of tin related information. The organisation hosts seminars, conferences and industry-
specific group meetings. It also provides marketing and technical support to its members and the tin industry in general.
Further information can be obtained from ITRI (http://www.itri.co.uk).
ITRI is the main source of global tin industry statistical and market information, based on its networks of member companies
and regular large-scale industry surveys. ITRI and Greenfields Research have worked together since 2010, collaborating first
on the development of the ITRI Tin Production Costs Model and most recently in surveying and analysing tin exploration and
development activity worldwide to produce the New Tin Supply report.
For editorial information contact:
Peter Kettle – Manager, Markets, ITRI Ltd e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 1727 871347
Joanna Symons- PR Consultant email: [email protected] Tel: +44 7986 707420
