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As with any trading indicator, the Stochastic Oscillator is only a tool and should be used as part of an overall
trading strategy. I'm not going to draw a conclusion for
you as to the effectiveness but will cover different uses for the Stochastic.
I also am only going to cover the slow Stochastic because I've always found the slow version
much easier on the eyes then the fast Stochastic as you can see from this graphic.
You've heard of momentum in trading and the Stochastic is designed to give
you an objective measure of the momentum in your trading
instrument. It's bounded by the numbers 0 and 100 and will oscillate
between those two areas.
One area you want to be clear on is that simply because the lines on the
"Stochs" moves up and down, it does not always track price movement.
Remember, it measures momentum in that it tells you via the direction if
price is closing closer to the highs or lows over a set period of time.
Some will say that it is an oversold/overbought indicator
however that was not the original intention of the indicator. George
Lane, the developer of the indicator, actually used it for stochastic
divergence - the divergence of the Stochastic when compared to price.
There is a big issue even when using the Stochastic as intended but for now, just keep in mind that we are looking
at momentum in the market when using this indicator.
You may find different calculations depending on the charting package
that you are using however this is the proper formula for the fast Stochastic.
%K=(C-L)/(H-L) x100 C=Close is current closing price L=Lowest low over X periods. H=Highest high over X periods
The slow Stochastic is calculated differently where %K is a 3-period
moving average of the fast %K. %D is an x-period moving average of the fast
%K. Keep things simple. Even if your charting platform has a different
calculation, just use what is available.
Remember that any trading indicator is simply one cog in the wheel of a
complete trading system. You will probably not rely on one thing to
indicate a trading opportunity.
Many trading indicators will give you the opportunity to adjust many of the
inputs that will be used in the calculation. This can be a good thing when trying to optimize for current
market conditions but it can produce more headaches than trading results.
If 14,3,3 is a great setting, why not 13?
What about 5,3,3?
What about any combination you can think of?
Keep in mind that the shorter the look back period, the more movement you will get with the indicator. A setting of 14 will be slower than a 5. Whatever you determine works for you, just be
consistent.
Actually, one of the reasons I prefer the slow Stochastic is I find it plots smoother on the charts. The fast
Stochastic is ragged in appearance which has to do with it being more
sensitive than the slow.
There is no best Stochastic setting that will produce more wins than losses. When designing your trading system and trade plans, simply choose the
setting that suits your needs.
I have always used the Dinapoli setting of 8,3,3 and have never changed it. It's
not that I found that the setting was better or worse than any other, it's just
what I started with and saw no compelling reason to change the
setting.
Now that we know that the Stochastic is a momentum oscillator that
measures the momentum of the last X periods (look back), let's look at some
uses of the indicator.
There are dangers when trading the often touted methods without taking a
more critical look at what not only what the indicator is telling you, but
what price action and structure is telling you.
OVERSOLD AND OVERBOUGHT This is something you read about quite
a lot and often times it misses the truth about these levels. These are not
areas you simply want to execute a counter trade position.
We are looking at momentum and when slow stochastic oversold overbought momentum is high
enough to force the Stochastic lines into either of these levels, it indicates
strength/weakness and does not signal an immediate change in the market.
This chart shows a market in both conditions and you can see that:
Overbought - Market keeps going higher
Oversold - Market keeps going lower
Is taking a trade simply because of the signal of the Stochastic a good idea?
Not in this case although I could
probably find examples of the perfect reversal.
When testing anything in trading, ensure you are seeing the whole
picture and not just what you want to see.
When you see this condition, think of it telling you that at this point, the
market is probably in a strong directional trend and barring any
strong support or resistance, it will probably continue in that direction.
Why probably?
An object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same
direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force - Newton
You will get counter moves (unbalanced force) that may slow
down the momentum of the market but to reverse it, that force must be
strong. That strength is often found at historical structure points.
You may find opportunities when a confluence of technical factors line up
when the market is oversold or overbought.
This may be an opportunity to pull some profits out of the market but you want to
watch how price reacts around these areas. It must show some sign of weakness in order for you to find yourself in a higher
probability trade.
There are plenty of opportunities for trades while the market in both states in this example. I can see range failure tests, range breaks, and flags broken
with strength and this is only using this time frame.
The key is using your trade plan to dictate your trading setups, finding them in favorable conditions, and
executing them.
DIVERGENCE TRADING Price goes one way and the Stochastic goes another, divergence is usually the
play traders look for.
This was the original play that Lane was looking at when developing the Stochastic but like I keep saying, an
indicator signal by itself is not always the smartest opportunity.
Remember that the Stochastic is bounded in between a 0 and 100 level. It can't go
lower or higher than those so keep that in mind when looking at divergence.
If price is in downtrend, compare lows of price and Stochastic. If price is in uptrend, compare highs of price and Stochastic.
If price makes lower low but Stochastic makes higher low, consider longs. If price makes a higher higher but Stochastic makes lower high, consider shorts.
This is down trending price and you can see that price puts in a low lower than the previous low. The Stochastic puts in a higher low which indicates the potential for a move up in price.
Remember that the Stochastic measures momentum and even
though price is moving down, the momentum calculation is pointing to the upside. It does not mean we are about to have a strong trend to the
upside.
This chart shows the action after divergence showed up from the
previous chart.
Price action was not the most conducive to stress free trading and just looking at the candlesticks, you can see upper/lower shadows and
small range candles.
That said though, the right side of the chart is a nice stair stepping uptrend pattern that could have resulted in some trading profits depending on
your trading style.
You may be seeing a pattern in these two examples. It really does not
matter what an indicator is telling you if price is not following suit. Indicators like the Stochastic are an "in addition to" component of a trade plan that
takes into account true market action and structures of price.
QUALITY OF PRICE TREND One component of a Stochastic
oscillator trading strategy you may want to employ is an objective
measure of the quality of the price trend.
If price is trending to the downside, your trading plan may call for
continued short positions instead of counter trend trades. All trends are
not created equally and the Stochastic will help you determine the quality of
the momentum of the trend.
The previous chart shows a Stochastic line cross while in the oversold area. This indicates momentum has turned
bullish and we are in an overall uptrend in price.
You can see the nice separation between the two slow Stochastic lines
and indicates "orderly" price movement.
Compare that to the area to the right of the highlighted zone. The lines are
compressed together and price is plotting weak directional candles as well as strong directional candles all while travelling in a sideways range.
Look for a separation between the lines as well as sweeping up or down moves of the Stochastic to indicate a
trend quality that you may find conducive to better trading
opportunities.
One important point to highlight once again is that the Stochastic is a bound indicator. It is very likely that you can be in an overbought/oversold state with the lines tight together but still have decent price action for trading.
The lines can't push higher than 100 or lower than 0 so ensure you also take
into consideration the state of the price action.
STOCHASTIC CROSSES + DIVERGENCE + PRICE
We can take some of what we have covered and add a few layers of
confluence to it that may add to the probability of some price movement in
our favor.
To do so, we are going to add in some price structure to aid us in a trading
decision.
Trading an indicator signal blindly is a recipe for disaster but adding in a what the chart itself has to offer is a totally
different ballgame. This is why Netpicks always incorporates
10-20% non-mechanical variables into each and every trading system and plan.
One thing that we haven't covered is when the lines on the Stochastic cross.
We will cover it in the chart example but if crossing to the upside from
oversold areas, that is considered a bullish move. Why?
Stochastic measures momentum and the cross signifies that after the move
down in price for example, we are getting momentum starting to the
upside when the cross occurs.
Do you trade that whenever it occurs? Of course not.
In the chart, price has moved down, put in a bottom and then rallied. Price came back down and that is where we
pick it up from:
1. Double bottom. Price puts in a reversal candle. We are in oversold territory with bullish divergence. Stochastic line cross.
2. Counter trade off of previous resistance. Stochastic line cross in overbought zone. No real candlestick reversal pattern.
3. Pullback to support and up sloping trend line. Stochastic line cross in oversold zone. Strong break of doji type candlestick.
This was making a case for trading as opposed to just firing off a trade
because the trading indicator gave a typical (and textbook) signal.
When you add in a confluence of factors including price structures, you improve your odds of some move in
your favor. Nothing is perfect so having a trade plan that includes risk
tolerance and trade management is extremely vital.
TRADE THE MOMENTUM TREND A slow Stochastic trend is the
momentum trend and for this you may want to consider using a MTF (multiple
time frame) approach in your trade plan.
Essentially we are looking for the momentum direction on a higher time frame and looking for trades on lower
time frames in the same direction.
When using a multiple time frame trading approach, look for a difference of 3-5 times. For example, you can use a 60
minute trend for trades on the 15 minute time frame. For simplicity, traders may look at the daily chart for the momentum trend while in Forex, some traders use the daily-4 hour combo and the 4 hour-1 hour combo.
Here we have the daily Stochastic on the bottom with 60 minute data on
the price chart.
You can see when the daily Stochastic trend was up, there were multiple
opportunities for trading ranging from flags to failure tests of ranges.
The right side shows a daily Stochastic trend to the downside with a cross to the upside midway between OS/OB. The trick is to note the slope of the
thicker line and not to be seduced into finding long positions.
To do so would have you in a losing trade quickly. There are a number of
trading opportunities simply using structure levels formed as price stair
steps downwards.
INDICATORS JUST PART OF THE TRADING PUZZLE
There are still many people who believe you can simply apply an
indicator to a trading chart and take the signals when presented.
As pointed out, to do so will not equate to a positive trading outcome.
You need more.
Simply applying the basics such as support and resistance or trend lines
will at least give you something to trade against. They can also keep you out of taking trades directly into points
of the chart that may offer some opposing forces that will challenge
your trades.
You want to ensure that any trading system you use that has indicators is
also thoroughly tested and if based on multiple indicators, that they
compliment each other. Having two momentum indicators for example is not needed and just adds a layer of complexity to any trading strategy.
Remember one of the key elements of a trading plan is how you manage your
trades and the risk you will take. Those are as crucial, if not more so, than what setups you use for your
trades.
Whether you use the slow Stochastic as part of your trading plan or any
other indicator, ensure that you critically analyze the information it
presents so you can see both the pros and cons of each. Testing a trading
system and each variable is hard and tedious work.
If you think you are not going to approach it in a diligent manner or want to get ideas on how to design your own, join us for a free webinar
where you can see one of most popular trading systems to date in
action. You can register for the trading webinar here.