Future Think: How Colleges Can Respond to the Revolutions Shaping Our

World

Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FRSA, FBPsSChief Scout, Murgatroyd Communications & Consulting Inc

Edmonton, June 6th 2011ACCC, Shaw Conference Centre

“History is a mystery, but the future is clear…”

Ben Bernanke

“You cant make a map unless you can see the world as it is .. you have to know where you are before you can figure out

how to go about getting there…”

Seth Godin

BUILDING OUR FUTURE THROUGH UNDERSTANDING OUR PAST

How a Knowledge of Patterns Can Help Us Understand Our Future

• This presentation will look at six current “revolutions” and their significance. The five revolutions are:

– Technology– Global Economics– Global power balances– Demographics– Changes in the Patterns of Climate– Personal Identity

• For each, we will look at the opportunities for Canada’s Community Colleges

TECHNOLOGYThe First Revolution

Technology is Everywhere• The iPad is the fastest growing

technology ever to be sold – iPad 1 sold 1 million in 28 days (April 2010) and the iPad 2 sold 1 million in 3 days (March 2011) – a total of 19.5 million have been sold in 12 months

• The 10 billionth “app” for the iPhone/ iPad was downloaded on January 22nd 2011 at 1045 am

• 640 million Facebook users in 6 years

• In Q4 of 2010 Smart Phone shipments outstrip PC shipments 2:1

Adoption Speeds are Getting Faster(number of years to secure 80% penetration)

Technology is Changing IndustriesThe Forest Sector…

Pulp & Paper

Building Material

Energy

Renewable diesel

Nano Crystalline Cellulose

Aircraft Fuels

Cellulosic Ethanol

Bio PlasticsMethanol

Textiles

Renewable Tires using

Lignin

Bio Active Paper &

Packs

Bio Pharmaceuticals

Bio OilsFood

Additives

Music / Movie Rental Industry• iTunes has changed this

industry, with over 5 billion downloads

• iTunes Store also has the largest music catalogue online, with over 8 million tracks.

• iTunes Store is now renting over 50,000 movies daily, turning it into the most popular movie store, too, with a catalogue of over 20,000 TV episodes, over 2,000 films, of which over 350+ are available in HD quality.

Health CareThe Robot-Biotech Revolution

• In Canada/US 75,000 robotic surgeries each year and growing at 12% CAGR in North America

• Nanotechnology products in health care now appearing:– Drug delivery system– Inner nano-bots monitoring

systems

• Growing “organs” for transplant

Technology Revolution

• Broadband based technologies are disruptive

• They are fundamentally changing service industries, e.g.– Banking– Travel– Music and Movies– Books – Newspapers– Education

• Digital and robotic technologies are increasingly disruptive. They are changing industries, e.g.– Forestry– Health care– Manufacturing– Logistics and supply chains

• Bio, Genome and Nano technologies will reshape health care, food systems and other major industries

The Pattern Here..

• A disruptive technology changes behaviour of large number of people which institutions and organization are initially slow to respond to

• Over time, new products and services emerge which change industries (e.g. itunes, iPad)

• Other sectors then are emboldened by developments in related sectors and seek to adopt/adapt

• New firms emerge which “get” the technology and create new products and services – e.g. yet2.com

• Over time, Established firms (Blockbuster) are replaced by new players (Netflix)

Implications for Colleges• Remember:

– Disruptive technologies create new classes of workers, new kinds of drivers for success and new kinds of organizations

– Social structure changes in line with technology, but generally slowly

– Speed of technological replacement of core educational technologies has been slow, but is now accelerating..

• Remember– Not all Canadians have access to

broadband– The digital divide is more than

about access

• Adopt and adapt technology for learning and teaching– Don’t sweat the small stuff – focus on

outcomes and student engagement, not the technology itself

– Don’t convert courses, reinvent them– Don’t let the faculty drive this work –

it’s a new model for design, development, deployment and delivery

• Rethink the process of learning• Rethink the use of time and the

opportunity to personalize learning• Rethink “reach” – what your

customer base looks like..• Fastest growing segment of

technology users are seniors…

GLOBAL ECONOMYRevolution 2

The Dynamics

• Emerging BRIC’s economies are having a major impact on the global economy– Brazil – now the 5th largest holder of US debt, will grow at an

average of 4.4% annually between now and 2050– Russia - will grow at an average of 4 % annually between now

and 2050– India - will grow at an average of 8.1% annually between now

and 2050– China – the largest holder of US debt, will grow 9.3% in 2011

and average 5.9% to 2050• When we look at the economic “shape” of the world in

2050 it looks somewhat different from now…

2010 2050

Other Complications to the “Normal” Economic Order..

• PIGS economies remain weak and vulnerable, especially Greece• Japan will take a considerable time to restore economic health given its

level of debt and the impact of the tsunami / earthquake which had a significant effect on global supply chains

• The middle east unrest (especially Syria) is having a destabilising effect on that regional economy and could have a medium term impact on oil prices and inflation

• US debt (Federal $14.3 trillion and growing / 48 US States in severe financial trouble) coupled with the inability of the political system to agree a strategy is extremely problematic

• Oil, commodity and food inflation will have a significant impact on the world economy, especially the world’s poor

• Structural sovereign debt is everywhere – we are headed to a decade or more of austerity in the developed world with major impacts on trade and employment

• Labour supply in the developed world “tight” – and challenging. Global war for talent is “on”.

US Debt to 2019

G-Zero for Global Institutions

• It’s a flat but lumpy economic world…• Historically, the G7 (then the G8 and then the G20) met twice a year to

adjust elements of the global economic strategy. The IMF and the World Bank were also “directed” through these meetings.

• These organizations are now dysfunctional – we live in the G-Zero age with no institution fully engaged/ able to step up to a significant transition, though the IMF and World Bank are seeking to fulfill this role.

• Our economic institutions are in the process of rebalancing and redefining their roles

• Meantime, we have a “an unusually uncertain environment” (Ben Bernanke) – code for “we’re flying blind”.

Implications for Colleges• Your students will likely need

work experience abroad – focus on the BRICS countries (think Finland and CIMO)

• Co-Op programs with companies working in different countries could be very powerful “attractor”

• Your graduates will be in high demand world wide – don’t prepare them just for work in Timmins, High Level or Prince George – think Shanghai, Mumbai or Denpasar

• Learning a second language might be just as important as securing a trade ticket

• All students need to understand how Canada “fits” into the global economy and how we are connected globally

• Understanding simple economics and global citizenship is a “must have” skill

GLOBAL POWER BALANCESRevolution 3

Political Power: It’s Safe To Say..• We are witness to the beginning of the decline of the US as the worlds

global super-power– Vietnam Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya not military successes– Economic power clearly in decline as the BRIC’s economies emerge– Political “messy-ness” characterizes Washington– Low rates of democratic participation (55-56% and as low as 49% in 1996), especially amongst

some ethnic groups and fractionation of politics (T-Party, lobbying)– Banking system in relative permanent state of uncertainty– Low performance on PISA educational attainments – 24th in the world on mathematics (lower

position than 2006) and 7th in the world on reading.• Europe going through a major transition – EU 27 struggling to gain identity in a time of

austerity and tension between Germany/France/UK on the one hand and the PIGS economies on the other as well as between the UK and Eurozone

• Former global powers of the G7 nations (US, UK, France, Japan, Germany, Italy and Canada) are shifting with some in serious economic trouble (US, Japan, Italy) and some seeking to punch globally above their weight (UK, Canada, France) and some unsure about their status (Italy)

Social Capital: Education Landscape is Changing

Other Aspects of the World Are Also Changing

• Shifts in the balance of power in Africa, Asia• Middle East and the Summer of Unrest – emerging

democracies (fed by Facebook and Twitter)• Quickly growing middle class in Asia, India and Africa –

more middle class in China than the total population of the US

• Health quality rising in formerly unhealthy regions – health drives wealth

• Globalization making it possible for Kenya to become the world’s second largest producer of cut flowers and coffee

Implications for Colleges

• Global markets for educational services are growing fast – Canada strong reputation (generally) helps.

• Colleges need a strategy for growing the number of international students studying in Canada (the Ontario strategy).

• Colleges need partnerships and alliances for 2+2 arrangements internationally

• World demand for trades skills will grow rapidly, especially in BRIC’s economies – e-Apprenticeship components becoming very attractive

• Growing mobility of skilled workers – especially temporary foreign workers – demands that we “solve” the rapid recognition of foreign credentials problem

DEMOGRAPHICS AND THE GREY TSUNAMI

Revolution 4

Lets Begin with CanadaAge specific Fertility Rates 1926 - 2005

Now Lets Look at The US

And Now Europe

The Grey Tsunami is Beginning

The World Looks Like..

Our Demographic Challenge

• Lowering world-wide of fertility, linked to growing health and wealth

• Many people in the developed world (but also in China and India) living longer

• Ratio of those working to those not working falling – more people not working

• Costs of social programs (especially health) rising and debt levels in major economies higher

• Fewer people in work to pay taxes to support a growing number of people not in work

• Austerity likely, with a major impact on employment which in turn, encourages a shift to outsourcing…

More Specifically…

• Alberta will be “short” 77,000+ skilled and professionals by 2017 – mainly trades

• Ontario will be “short” 190,000 workers in 2020, rising to 364,000 by 2025 and 564,000 by 2030

• BC will be “short” 80,000+ workers by 2019• Quebec will be “short” 360,000 workers by 2025

If you add these up – Canada’s core economies will be looking for 800,000+ people

We need to start offering over half our High School Students a route to Trades Faster-Smarter-Now

Implications for Colleges

• Workforce transformation over the next 15 years.

• Shortage of available talent to fill growing number of vacancies may force a rethink of teaching, learning and resourcing

• New forms of contractual arrangements – “Rent-A-Prof” becomes attractive

• Key growth will be from aboriginal communities, first generation learners and learners in rural and remote communities

• Immigration a key source of labour – and in need o skill development

• Online learning could be a response to demographic challenges

THE EARTH AND CLIMATE CHANGERevolution 5

Climate Change is Not NewIt Occurs Around every 1,500 Years

Does Appear to be Getting Warmer..

Though some suggests that data anomalies / Adjustments cause some of this warming. Others claim that the warming effectively stopped in 1998……

…and there is more atmospheric CO2

The current June 2011 CO2 levels are estimated at 390 ppm. The last time CO2 was that high was around 3 million years ago, in the early Pliocene. Back then, CO2 levels remained at around 365 to 410 ppm for thousands of years. Fear is it will rise to 550 ppm by 2050 (unlikely).

Four Generalized Response Scenarios(Probability in Brackets Judged by 60 Leading Thinkers / Years = Mean Arrival Dates of

the Scenario)

Muddling Up (28%) - 2027• World reacts out of need and some

progress is made• Not all problems are tackled - major

challenges remain

Rise to Maturity (12%) - 2033• G-Zero is replaced by mature global

organizations and purposive and mindful national government

• Systematic / Evidence Based Approach to Problem Solving

Decline to Disaster (25%) - 2029• We fail to react to these shifts and

our G-Zero Institutions cant cope

Muddling Down (35%) - 2023• Partial responses and fractionated

politics

Implications for Colleges

• Climate change will lead to significant changes in agriculture, forestry, water, energy and environmental management

• Eco-Services and the “green” economy will be a significant growth sector (subject to….)

• Climate change will create new forms of employment and new challenges for employees

• Colleges will need to demonstrate their own green credentials

• Colleges could be local “hubs” for a green economy

• Colleges will be central to the skills developments needed for the green economy

• BUT don’t get overly excited….we’re not the EU!

A NEW “SELF”Revolution Six

Challenges to Our Sense of Identity

• We are experiencing a generation who confuse “tweeting” with meaning and Facebook friends with friendship, reality TV with reality

• Shifting from homo-sapien to homo-zapien

• Many search for meaning in relation to– Family, community and society– Self and personal identity– Personal relationship– Relationship to knowledge,

information and wisdom

Implications for Colleges• Colleges are not knowledge

“factories” or qualification providers – they should be a place which helps individuals find meaning

• Our students need to understand not simply what they can do, but who they are..

• The non academic / teaching roles of mentors, coaches and guides requires us to think through how we help students find meaning

• Requires the teaching of– Critical self reflection– Social understanding and

personal understanding– Mindfulness– Purposive pursuit

• An especially strong issue for aboriginal students, recent immigrants and those struggling with identity in a multi-cultural society

SOME HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE…Understanding the Overall Implications

A New 21st Century Renaissance?• The Medieval Renaissance

– Challenges to generally accepted boundaries of thought and action

– Redefining of who had power/authority

– Realignment of the power of the church and state

– Exploration, innovation and cultural enrichment

– New technology (printing)– Reinvention of “self”– New forms of expression – new

forms of art, music, drama, poetry

• 21st Century Renaissance– Realigning of social, political and

economic boundaries– Power shifting in terms of social

democratic movements and the fractionation of politics

– New forms of religious beliefs and a new secularism

– Innovation, technological disruption with social consequences (social media)

– Reinvention of “self” and “followership”

– New forms of expression – social media, new forms of music and art, drama, film..

Understanding Transitions : Different Social Structures in Different Economic Ages

Agricultural Age

Aristocracy

Intellectuals & Artists

Merchants

Craftsmen

Agricultural Workers

Industrial Age

Upper Class

Intellectuals & Knowledge

Workers

Merchants

Craftsmen

Industrial Workers

_____________Agricultural

Workers

Post-Industrial Age

Upper Class

Creative Class

Merchants & Entrepreneurs

Urban Bohemians

Skill & Knowledge Workers

Retirees

Industrial Workers

Service Workers

Working Poor

Agricultural Workers

Social Wards

Information Age

Upper & Ruling Class

Creative Class

Cultural Sycophants

Entrepreneurs

Knowledge Worker Sub Class

Bio Knowledge Workers Sub Class

Retirees

Industrial & Agricultural Workers

Service Workers

Working Poor

Social Wards

Underclass

Robotic-Biotech AgeUpper & Ruling Class

Creative Class

Developers of Intellectual Goods

Cultural Sycophants

Entrepreneurs

Knowledge Worker Sub Class

Systems Knowledge Workers Sub Class

Bio-Med Knowledge Workers Sub Class

Retirees

Industrial & Agricultural Workers

Service Workers

Working Poor

Social Wards

Underclass

Implications for Colleges

• Many colleges are geared to the industrial/post industrial era – we’re actually in the information era and are shifting to the robotic/biotech era

• Need to understand the role of the college as a catalyst for locally relevant innovation and as a community based leadership academy for change

• Every student who graduates from a College needs to be a change agent

• Every student who graduates from a College needs to have:– Level 3 Literacy– An appropriate level of financial

literacy– An appropriate level of

technological literacy– Emotional intelligence– Coping skills

• Its rethinking learning as a process time..

The Good News!• Colleges are not universities (well…). They are:

– Nimble, responsive, connected– Engaged with real work with real companies– Embedded and linked to communities– Relevant– Don’t offer rhetoric about what they can do – they do it and

demonstrate outcomes..• While the range of qualifications offered by Colleges is

expanding, focus remains on relevant, skills driven and responsive curriculum

• Great achievements in online learning, especially in Ontario and BC

• But there is much more to do…..

“If you want to be a linchpin, the power you bring to the table has to be very

difficult to replace. Be bolder and think bigger. Nothing is stopping you.”

Seth Godin

LET THE JOURNEY CONTINUE!www.stephenmurgatroyd.com / stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca