Expect More Arizona 2010 Voter Poll Results

Findings from a Statewide Survey of 750 Registered Voters in Arizona

April 14-20, 2010

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The Overview: Concern and Frustration Voters in Arizona make education a top tier concern when they think of the issues

confronting the state. However, voters in Arizona have A LOT on their minds and both the economy and immigration compete with it as the top issue.

Voters are in an ornery mood in general and especially when it comes to the education system in Arizona. They are ready for change and improvements.

Their frustration really knows no limits in this current context. They want state leaders AND local leaders to step up, take more responsibility, and do a better job improving the education system.

There is a real paradox between voters’ attitudes toward voting and holding leaders accountable and the end result of continued frustration around education and state leadership on the issue.

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Key Findings: Communication Targets

Base Targets:– Women– Parents – Latinos

Communication and Persuasion Targets: – Non-parents and particularly men. – Draw linkages to jobs, employment, and economic

growth

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Key Findings: Communication Goals

– Link the economy and the education system together. The economy cannot grow if the quality of education system does not improve.

– Emphasize local links. Voters think their local schools are doing better, so we need to remind them that they need to prioritize the education system when they vote in order for that to remain true.

– Push that everyone has a role in improving the education system. Voters need to prioritize the issue. Elected leaders need to keep their promises. The community needs to hold them to those promises. Most importantly, everyone has a role from voting to volunteering to talking to others – the system won’t improve unless everyone fulfills their role.

– Boost voters’ sense of efficacy. Voters are frustrated. They believe they prioritize education when they vote but they don’t believe leaders are held accountable and this leads some to doubt whether they can make a difference. They need to be told they can and do make a difference, and the campaign can help them understand better ways to be more effective in those efforts.

Arizonans’ Education Agenda

Jobs and unemployment dominate the issue terrain. Still, education is a top tier concern and funding ranks as the top

concern when it comes to improving Arizona’s education system, and voters are unhappy with the way thing are

going in Arizona Schools.

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Voters in Arizona are concerned about the state’s education system. Given a choice of words that included optimistic and pessimistic descriptions of the state’s education system, a plurality of voters chose “concerned.” In fact, barely one in ten choose a positive term, instead eight in ten choose a negative description of their attitude toward the state’s education system. This concern is broad and deep, it extends across demographic and geographic groups. This concern permeates every other attitude in this study. It is powerful and overriding.

Closest to How YOU Personally Feel about the Direction of Arizona’s Schools

0%

3%

4%

6%

12%

15%

43%

5%

2%

5%

Concerned

Frustrated

Unhappy

Satisfied

Sad

Optimistic

Not Interested

Defeated

Happy

Inspired

Optimistic Words: 13%Pessimistic Words: 81%

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Voters rank education third behind the economy and immigration as the most important issue facing the state. Women are, as usual, the most likely to prioritize education, especially mothers, younger women, and college-educated women. To maintain a concentrated focus on education, linkages between the state’s schools and the economy must continue to be made.

Most Important Issues Facing the State (Up to 3)

2%

1%1%1%1%1%

22%

2%4%

30%37%

39%43%

6%

2%

7%

1%1%

Economy and unemployment

Immigration

Education

State budget

Politics and government

Security/terrorism/safety

Crime and violence

Public transportation/mass transit

Gas prices

Housing market

Air quality

Traffi c congestion

Growth management/overcrowding

Environment

Homeless

Drugs and alcohol abuse

Water conservation

Other

Most Likely to Say Education:•Mothers (62%)•Women under 50 (57%)•College educated women (56%)•Democrats (52%)•Parents of kids under 12 (52%)•Parents of kids in public school (49%) •Under 40 (48%)•Pima County (48%)•Tucson media market (48%)•Special election voters (47%)•Independent/swing women (47%)•Latinos (47%)•Women (46%)•Phoenix women (44%)•Maricopa Co. under 50 (42%)

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Voters are critical of the performance of Arizona’s education system, with 70% rating the system as fair or poor, and only a quarter rating the system as excellent or good. It is typical for voters to hold more positive views toward education in their local community, but even then their attitudes are more critical than encouraging.

Current Education System in Arizona

5%

70%

25%

30%

Excellent/Good Fair/Poor Don't know

Current Education System in Your Local Community

6%

50%43%

17%10%


Darker colors=intensity

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Driving this sense of concern with the education system is the belief that education in Arizona has declined in the last five years, rather than improved or stay the same. Typically, from research on this question in other states and nationally, voters who want to express frustration tend to say the education system has “stayed the same”, but in Arizona, voters’ concern has tipped a plurality to feel the system is in decline.

7%

38%44%

11%20%

Improved Declined Stayed same Don't know

Over the last five years, do you think education in Arizona has improved, declined, or stayed about the same?


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Voters spread the blame for their frustration with the education system pretty broadly, focusing not just on leaders in the state capitol but also on their own locally elected leaders.

Over the last two years, elected officials in your area improving the education

system in Arizona

6%

79%

15%42%


Over the last two years, elected officials in the state improving the education

system in Arizona

5%

85%

9%

54%



Consequences of a Declining Education System

Voters understand the connection between education and economic success, both on a personal level and for the state

as a whole. They believe Arizona is losing out on talented people and opportunities by not addressing the problems

with their education system.

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Their concerns with the education system in Arizona run so deeply and exist so broadly because voters feel that education and the state’s economic future are so closely tied together. Across the board, 90% of voters believe improving the economy means improving the state’s education system. If the education system does not improve (and they feel it is in decline) than the economy and job situation will not improve. In short, they feel the future of their state is at stake. Agree or Disagree with Following Statements:

93%

87%

90%

69%

68%

61%

55%

90%Arizona's economic development and job

growth depends on our ability to improve oureducation system, and that means improving

our K-12 education system.*

Arizona's economic development and jobgrowth depends on our ability to improve oureducation system, and that means improving

quality learning opportunities for all children.*

Investing in our education system can helpattract new businesses and job opportunities.*

Arizona's economic development and jobgrowth depends on our ability to improve oureducation system, and that means improving

our colleges and universities.*

Agree


Remember, 43% say the economy and unemployment is the most important issue facing Arizona (multiple choice).

Questions asked of half the sample.

Voters want to improve both K-12 and higher education, but they still prioritize K-12.

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Voters are dubious that Arizona is a good place for recent college graduates to start a career. This is clearly a concern when it comes to developing and keeping a well-qualified workforce pipeline that can attract relocating companies.

Agree or Disagree with Following Statements:

64%

48%

41%

37%

17%

75%Arizona loses business and job growthopportunities due to the quality of its

education system.

Arizona loses talented and expert peoplesuch as doctors and scientists to other

states due to the quality of its educationsystem.

Arizona is a good place for a recent collegegradaute to start a career.


Agree

Questions asked of half the sample.

Taking Action and Improving Education

Voters believe that everyone has a responsibility to help improve education, and funding is the greatest problem that needs to be addressed.

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When voters are presented with a list of priorities, the level of state funding remains a top concern, but teacher quality and parental involvement compete for much needed attention.

Great Priorities for Improving Education in AZ (Up to 2)

5%

10%

13%

21%

23%

27%

28%

16%

5%

17%

4%

Increasing state funding toward education

Improving teacher qualify

Improving parental involvement

Raising teachers' pay

Raising standards for all students

Inspiring self-motivation to succeed in students

Equalizing funding between rich and poor schools

Increasing the number of students who go to college

Increasing graduation rates

Increasing the number of students who graduate from college

Strengthening community involvement in education

34% of voters offer – as top of mind - lack of funding and the state budget as the greatest priority. More than double the 16% who mentioned teacher quality.

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Voters spread the responsibility for fixing Arizona’s schools across a number of groups, but the top tier of those they hold responsible includes teachers, parents, and decision makers in the Superintendent’s office, the Department of Education, and the state legislature. Still, voters believe no one can get away with saying they lack a measure of responsibility to improving the system.

Responsibility for Improving Schools in AZ

87%

92%

90%

77%

83%

81%

59%

79%

73%

72%

70%

56%

55%

50%

17%

94%

86%

84%

84%

71%

65%

57%

53%

62%

22%

39%

Teachers*

The AZ Department of Education*

Parents with students in the education system*

State Superintendent of Public Instruction

The state legislature*

Students in the education system*

The governor*

YOUR state representative*

Voters in your community*

Your member of Congress*

You personally

Local business leaders*

People who do NOT have children in thesystem*

Darker colors=intensity Questions asked of half the sample.

Voting on Education

Voters say they do or are willing to vote on education, but they do not believe that elected officials are currently being held

accountable on this issue.

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There is a clear dichotomy when it comes to voting education. On the one hand, voters say they are willing to use their vote as a way to hold elected officials accountable on education. Yet they continue to express frustration at the work those elected officials are doing to improve the system.

Likely Activities to Improve Education in AZ

70%

49%

37%

33%

36%

8%

53%

36%

30%

20%

17%

15%

4%

77%

36%

46%

16%

17%

7%

18%

Use your vote as a way to hold elected officials accountable for thepromises they make regarding education in AZ*

Vote for local candidates who will make improving education a toppriority*

Support a temporary increase in the state sales tax that can only beinvested in education*

Volunteer at a local school*

Talk to friends, neighbors, and relatives about the state of educationin AZ*

Donate money or contribute to a local school*

Donate money or contribute to a local nonprofit organization thatsupports education*

Volunteer with an organization or participate in an activity thathelps improve local education in AZ*

Volunteer to work for a local candidate who is involved in improvingeducation in AZ*

Run for school board in your community*

Darker colors=intensity Questions asked of half the sample.

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Most voters say that education is a very important voting issue, but there is little intensity behind this as only one-in-five say it is ONE OF the most important issues. Voters tend to take action on what they feel intensely about, and only one in five feel that way about voting education.


Importance of Candidate's Education Position in State

Elections

20%

3%4%

62%

37%

Important Not Important

Importance of Candidate's Education Position in Federal

Elections

14%3%7%

58%

42%

Important Not Important

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Despite their sense that they are personally willing to use education in their vote criterion and to hold officials accountable, an overwhelming majority of voters agree that elected officials are not held accountable on education. When it comes to improving education either voters haven’t done what they say they have done (prioritize and vote education) or they don’t believe their actions are working to change the system. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

4%

78%

17%

Held Accountable NOT HeldAccountable

Don't know

Are Elected Officials Held Accountable on Education?


Held accountable does not rise about 27% for any demographic group.

Joshua [email protected]

Bob Carpenter [email protected]

Celinda [email protected]