Noah, Joseph, And High-Resolution Paleoclimatology

NOAH, JOSEPH, AND HIGH-RESOLUTION PALEOCLIMATOLOGY

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University | February 4, 2015

Sco! St. George University of Minnesota

Benoit Mandelbrot March 2007

Source: NASA/GSFC/JPL, MISR Team

RANDOM GAUSSIAN+

“JOSEPH-WILD” BEHAVIOR

WE SHALL SPEAK OF “JOSEPH-WILD” BEHAVIOR

WHEN THE WETTEST DECADE WITHIN A CENTURY INCLUDES AN

EXTRAORDINARY “TERM” OF WET YEARS.

“ ”Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1968 Water Resources Research

“NOAH-WILD” BEHAVIOR

WE SHALL SPEAK OF “NOAH-WILD” BEHAVIOR

WHEN A FEW OF THE YEARS WITHIN THE CENTURY WITNESS

“FLOODS” SO MAJOR SO AS TO AFFECT THE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION

FOR PERIODS OF MANY YEARS WITHIN WHICH THE FLOOD YEARS OCCURRED.

“ ”

Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1968 Water Resources Research

“IDIOSYNCRASIES”

Source: Baillie, Journal of Econometrics, 1996

TREE RINGS AS CASE STUDIES IN ECONOMETRICS

80oS

60oS

40oS

20oS

0o

20oN

40oN

60oN

80oN

PAGES 2K network (Phase 2) as of 21Jan2015 (911 records from 758 sites)

bivalve

coral

historic

ice core

lake sediment

marine sediment

sclerosponge

speleothem

tree

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Temporal Availability

# p

roxi

es

Year (CE)

0

50

100

150

200

First Millennium

PAGES2K NETWORK (PHASE 2)

Source: Dr. Nick McKay, Northern Arizona University

WATERSHED REGION HEMISPHERE

1SETTING THE RECORD ON THE RED

2THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST: SIGNAL OR QUIRK?

3THE DECADAL CLIMATE CONUNDRUM

RINGS IN THE BRANCHES OF SAWED TREES SHOW

THE NUMBER OF YEARS AND, ACCORDING TO THEIR

THICKNESS, THE YEARS WHICH WERE

MORE OR LESS DRY.

“ ”

Leonardo da Vinci

HOW MANY TREE RINGS CAN YOU COUNT?

Source: Dr. Dan Griffin, University of Minnesota

1871 1872 1873 1874


Dr. Dan Griffin University of Minnesota


Sarah Appleton University of Minnesota

Source: Sarah Appleton, University of Minnesota

1809 1811 181218081807

Source: Sarah Appleton, University of Minnesota

WATERSHED REGION HEMISPHERE

1SETTING THE RECORD ON THE RED

FFAFLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

Source: Todhunter, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2012

MAXIMUM FLOOD ESTIMATES ARE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE VERY LARGEST FLOODS

Source: Flickr\Liren Chen

THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH

THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH

Source: AP Photo/U.S. Coast Guard, Lt. Brendan Evans

2009

Source: Dr. Greg Brooks, Geological Survey of Canada

1997

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000discharge (cfs) at Grand Forks, North Dakota

INSTRUMENTAL DISCHARGE RECORDS BEGAN IN THE 1890S/1900S

THE RED RIVER SETTLEMENT

TOP TEN RED RIVER FLOODS BY DISCHARGE

0

60,000

120,000

180,000

240,000

2006 1996 1979 1950 2011 1861 2009 1997 1852 1826

discharge (cfs)

Source: Manitoba Conservation and Water Stewardship

historical reports river gauges

THE FORTS NOW STAND LIKE A CASTLE OF ROMANCE

IN THE MIDST OF AN OCEAN OF

DEEP CONTENDING CURRENTS, THE WATER EXTENDING

FOR AT LEAST A MILE BEHIND THEM…

“ ”

Francis Heron of the Hudson’s Bay Company May 1826

IS THERE PHYSICAL EVIDENCE FOR

THIS EXCEPTIONAL FLOOD?

24

OAK TREE RINGS (NORMAL ANATOMY)

28

OAK TREE RINGS (SHRUNKEN VESSELS)

2009

200

1875

Source: Dr. Erik Nielsen, Manitoba Geological Survey

53Source: Dr. Erik Nielsen, Manitoba Geological Survey

1852

55Source: St. George and Nielsen, The Holocene, 2003

1826

Source: St. George and Nielsen, The Holocene, 2003

350 YEARS OF RED RIVER FLOODS

Dr. Victor Baker University of Arizona

THE HISTORY OF PAST FLOODS, NOT THE HISTORICAL IDEALIZATION OF THEIR FUTURE POSSIBILITIES,

IS THE UNDERSTANDABLE BASIS UPON WHICH PEOPLE

MAY BE GUIDED TO EFFECTIVE ACTION.

“ ”

Baker et al., 2002 The Scientific and Societal Value of Paleoflood Research

River diversion

Main channel

WINNIPEGPOPULATION: 680,000

Source: Dr. Greg Brooks, Geological Survey of Canada

$1.8BFARG0-MOORHEAD DIVERSION


THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST

2THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST: SIGNAL OR QUIRK?

LOW- HIGH-

FREQUENCY BEHAVIOR

Source: Flickr\けんたま/KENTAMA

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 200056

56.5

57

57.5

58

58.5

59

Source: NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies

Mean annual temperature (°F)

GLOBAL LAND-OCEAN TEMPERATURE INDEX

‘RED’

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 202020

40

60

80

100

120

140

‘WHITE’total annual precipitation (mm)

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN DES MOINES, IOWA

Source: Global Historical Climate Network

Central Pacific Coast

1920 1960 2000

−400

0

400Regional winter precipitation anomalies (mm)

Ault and St. George, Journal of Climate, 2010

CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST

1920 1960 2000

−400

0

400Regional winter precipitation anomalies (mm)


CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST

Source: California Department of Water Resources

Florsheim, JL, De!inger, MD, 2007. Climate and floods still govern California levee breaks.

Geophysical Research Le!ers.


STRONG DECADAL VARIABILITY SYNCHRONIZES RAINFALL, STREAMFLOW, AND HAZARDS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

PREDICTIVE CAPACITY

THE HISTORY OF METEOROLOGY IS LITTERED WITH

THE WHITENED BONES OF CLAIMS TO HAVE DEMONSTRATED

THE EXISTENCE OF RELIABLE CYCLES IN THE WEATHER.

“ ”

William James Burroughs Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary?

FORCED? STOCHASTIC?

CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK

Dr. David Stahle University of Arkansas


QUERCUS DOUGLASII

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Tree growth (anomalies)

−0.4

0.4

0

1650

ring-width records

mean of set

Source: St. George and Ault, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 2011

TREE RINGS INDICATE THE 20TH CENTURY WAS UNUSUALLY DECADAL

Source: NOAA

ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

Xiaolu Li Cornell University

Li et al., unpublished

WHERE IS DEC-CEN VARIABILITY VIGOROUS?

AD 1850 - 2005

Li et al., unpublished

WHERE IS DEC-CEN VARIABILITY VIGOROUS?

AD 1850 - 2005

FORCED? STOCHASTIC?

PREDICTIVE CAPACITY

3THE DECADAL CLIMATE CONUNDRUM

DECADAL CLIMATE

VARIABILITY

… THE USE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION PROXY DATA

SHOULD BE EXPANDED BECAUSE THE SHORT OBSERVATIONAL RECORD

AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY ARE UNABLE TO SIMULATE

[DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY]…

“ ”

Mehta et al., 2011 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

PACIFIC DECADAL

OSCILLATION

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Source: Dr. Nate Mantua, University of Washington

THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) IS A LONG-LIVED EL NIÑO-LIKE PATTERN OF PACIFIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY.

D’ARRIGO AND WILSON, 2006 “ON THE ASIAN EXPRESSION OF THE PDO”

81 CITATIONS

D’ARRIGO ET AL, 2001 “TREE-RING ESTIMATES OF PACIFIC DECADAL

CLIMATE VARIABILITY”

226 CITATIONS

BIONDI ET AL., 2001 “NORTH PACIFIC DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

SINCE 1661 ”

440 CITATIONSGEDALOF AND SMITH, 2001

“INTERDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND REGIME-SCALE SHIFTS IN PACIFIC NORTH

AMERICA”

227 CITATIONS

MCDONALD AND CASE, 2005 “VARIATIONS IN THE PACIFIC DECADAL

OSCILLATION OF THE PAST MILLENNIUM”

253 CITATIONS

Dr. Kurt Kipfmueller University of Minnesota

ANY CONCLUSION THAT EXTENSIVE WILDFIRES ARE

MORE OR LESS COMMON WHEN THE PDO IS

IN ONE PHASE OR THE OTHER DEPENDS ENTIRELY

ON THE CHOICE OF PDO RECONSTRUCTION.

“ ”

Kipfmueller et al., 2012 Geophysical Research Le!ers

ADVANTAGE

DISADVANTAGE Short relative to decadal timescales

Grounded in reality

Too sensitive to solar and volcanic forcing?

Simulations are much longer than the timescale of interest

Long records grounded in reality

Proxy systems may distort or exaggerate decadal signals

THE DECADAL CLIMATE CONUNDRUM

TWO CASES ILLUSTRATING

THE DECADAL CLIMATE

CONUNDRUM

INSTRUMENTAL AND PALEOCLIMATE DATA INDICATE THAT NATURAL HYDROCLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS TEND TO BE MORE ENERGETIC AT LOW (MULTIDECADAL TO

MULTICENTURY) THAN AT HIGH (INTERANNUAL) FREQUENCIES. STATE-OF-THE-ART GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS DO NOT CAPTURE THIS CHARACTERISTIC OF HYDROCLIMATE VARIABILITY, SUGGESTING THAT THE

MODELS UNDERESTIMATE THE RISK OF FUTURE PERSISTENT DROUGHTS.

“ ”

Ault et al, 2014 Journal of Climate

Source: Franke et al., Nature Climate Change, 2013

AULT FRANKE


USING A GAUSS-MARKOV PROCESS IMPLIES FITTING

HIGH FREQUENCY EFFECTS FIRST AND WORRYING ABOUT

LOW FREQUENCY EFFECTS LATER.

“ ”Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1968 Water Resources Research

OUR STUDY GIVES EVIDENCE THAT ATTENTION TO

THE SPECTRAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ORIGINAL PROXY SERIES

IS NEEDED.

“ ”Franke et al., 2013

Nature Climate Change

1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000−1

0

1 10 to 50 yr

1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000−2

0

2 >10 yr

IS TREE GROWTH IN NEW MEXICOLESS SPATIALLY COHERENT AT LONG TIMESCALES?

PinusPicea

QuercusPseudotsuga

Larix

NothofagusAustrocedrisPhyllocladus

Agathis

Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014

THERE ARE MORE THAN 3,200 PUBLICLY-AVAILABLE TREE-RING RECORDS

(AND MANY MORE HELD BY INDIVIDUAL INVESTIGATORS).

FALSE DISCOVERY

RATE

(a) El Niño-Southern Oscillation

(b) Pacific Decadal Oscillation

(c) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

-0.8 +0.8-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6

Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014

LESS THAN ONE IN SEVEN TREE-RING WIDTH RECORDS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

ARE SIGNIFICANTLY CORRELATED WITH THE PDO.

(a) El Niño-Southern Oscillation

(b) Pacific Decadal Oscillation

(c) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

-0.8 +0.8-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6

Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014

LESS THAN ONE IN SEVEN TREE-RING WIDTH RECORDS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

ARE SIGNIFICANTLY CORRELATED WITH THE PDO.

BUT SOMEHOW, OVERALL, HISTORY

IS POTENT ENOUGH TO DELIVER, ON TIME, IN THE MEDIUM OR LONG RUN

MOST OF THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS, AND TO EVENTUALLY

BURY THE BAD GUY.

“ ”

Nassim Taleb Fooled By Randomness

Dr. Hal Fri!s University of Arizona

THEREFORE, THE TREE MAY BE THOUGHT OF AS

A “WINDOW” OR FILTER WHICH, BY MEANS OF THE PHYSIOLOGICAL PROCESS,

PASSES AND CONVERTS A CERTAIN CLIMATIC OR ENVIRONMENTAL INPUT

INTO A CERTAIN RING-WIDTH OUTPUT.

“ ”

Fri!s, 1971 Quaternary Research

Education

Noah, Joseph, And High-Resolution Paleoclimatology