Part 3 Three Steps Towards Global Disaster Resilience

GOALGOALA GLOBAL NETWORK OF PROFESSIONALS WITH KNOWLEDGE AND POLITICAL CAPITAL TO SOLVE LOCAL, NATIONAL, AND REGIONAL PROBLEMS

A GLOBAL NETWORK OF PROFESSIONALS WITH KNOWLEDGE AND POLITICAL CAPITAL TO SOLVE LOCAL, NATIONAL, AND REGIONAL PROBLEMS

CHAMPIONS

CHAMPIONS

SPONSORSSPONSORS

INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

19-22 AUGUST 2001


19-22 AUGUST 2001

DONORSDONORS

GLOBAL BLUEPRINTS FOR

CHANGE


CHANGE

TOWARD DISASTER RESILIENT

COMMUNITIES


COMMUNITIES

TOPICAL

BLUEPRINTS

TOPICAL

BLUEPRINTS

REGIONAL

BLUEPRINTS.

REGIONAL

BLUEPRINTS.

WORLD CONFERENCES ON

DISASTER REDUCTION 2005

AND 2015



AND 2015

DISASTERSDISASTERS

GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE

The Paradigm for 2014 That Makes Our Tomorrows Better

STEP 3

TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE

• Step 1: Integrating Today’s Global Knowledge Into Global Books of Knowledge

• Step 2: From Today’s Books of Knowledge to Innovative Capacity Building

• Step 3: From Today’s Paradigm to Tomorrow’s

THE GOAL

DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

DISASTER RESILIENCE

CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

REALITY

INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

LACK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF

COMMUNITY

INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF

COMMUNITY

YOUR

NATION

YOUR

NATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• MONITORING• HAZARD MAPS• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATIONR

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• EARLY WARNING• EM RESPONSE• RECOVERY

5 PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

BENEFITS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

BENEFITS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

• REDUCTION OF VULNERABILITY

• REDUCTION OF UNACCEPTABLE RISK

• LARGE BENE-FIT/COST

• REDUCTION OF VULNERABILITY

• REDUCTION OF UNACCEPTABLE RISK

• LARGE BENE-FIT/COST

• POLITICAL SUCCESS (No Regrets)

• ENHANCED DISASTER RESILIENCE

• POLITICAL SUCCESS (No Regrets)

• ENHANCED DISASTER RESILIENCE

STEP 3: TO MOVEFrom Today’s Paradigm to

Tomorrow’s

The difference between “Today” and “Tomorrow” is characterized by one set of “CHAMPIONS” leaving center stage and

another set coming on.

REVIEW OF THE FACTS FROM STEP 1

Integrating Today’s Global Knowledge Into Global Books of

Knowledge

FACT: THE PROBLEM IS NOT A LACK OF DISASTER KNOWLEDGE

FACT: THE PROBLEM IS NOT A LACK OF DISASTER KNOWLEDGE

• ALL 200 NATIONS HAVE A HISTORICAL RECORD OF THEIR OWN DISASTERS

• ALL 200 NATIONS HAVE A HISTORICAL RECORD OF THEIR OWN DISASTERS

FACT : THE PROBLEM IS AN IMPLEMENTATION PROBLEM FACT : THE PROBLEM IS AN

IMPLEMENTATION PROBLEM

• KNOWING WHAT TO DO TECH-NICALLY AND HOW TO DO IT POLITICALLY ARE DIFFERENT PROCESSES

• KNOWING WHAT TO DO TECH-NICALLY AND HOW TO DO IT POLITICALLY ARE DIFFERENT PROCESSES

FACT : THE PROBLEM IS A LACK OF CAPACITY FOR IMPLEMENTATION

FACT : THE PROBLEM IS A LACK OF CAPACITY FOR IMPLEMENTATION

• TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY ARE NEEDED FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF EACH OF THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

• TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY ARE NEEDED FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF EACH OF THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

REVIEW OF THE FACTS FROM STEP 2

From Today’s Books of Knowledge to Innovative Capacity Building For

Disaster Resilience

BOOK OF

KNOWLEDGE

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

And EM HI-ED

EVERY NATION HAS DOZENS OF “WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY”

AFTER A NEW DISASTER OCCURS TO USE THE UPDATED BOOKS OF

KNOWLEDGE FOR INNOVATIVE CAPACITY BUILDING

THE CAPACITY BUILDING PROCESS

UNDER-STANDUNDER-STAND

IDENT-IFY

IDENT-IFY

HEARHEAR

PERSON-ALIZE

PERSON-ALIZE ACTACT

PERIOD OF INTEGRATION

WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION

FACT

DISASTER RESILENCE HAPPENS AS CAPACITY IS BUILT BY THE INNOVATIVE INTEGRATION OF “POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS” OF A COMMON

AGENDA

CHARACTERISTICS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE CHARACTERISTICS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

• STAPLE FACTORS INTEGRATED INTO DECISIONMAKING

• STAPLE FACTORS BALANCED

• BENEFIT/COST RATIO IS LARGE

• STAPLE FACTORS INTEGRATED INTO DECISIONMAKING

• STAPLE FACTORS BALANCED

• BENEFIT/COST RATIO IS LARGE

TOWARDS INCREASED CAPACITY FOR GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE

TOWARDS INCREASED CAPACITY FOR GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE

GOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA(CA) OF TECHNICAL

AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS

GOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA(CA) OF TECHNICAL

AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS

TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSTECHNICAL SOLUTIONS

POLITICAL SOLUTIONSPOLITICAL

SOLUTIONS

CA



FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH NATION’S STAPLE FACTORS

FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH NATION’S STAPLE FACTORS

TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSTECHNICAL SOLUTIONS

POLITICAL SOLUTIONSPOLITICAL

SOLUTIONS

STAPLE FACTORSSTAPLE

FACTORS

PPTT

SSOO

CA

EACH NATION’S UNIQUE “STAPLE” FACTORS VARY WITH

EACH NATION’S UNIQUE “STAPLE” FACTORS VARY WITH

• TIME• PLACE• CIRCUMSTANCES

• TIME• PLACE• CIRCUMSTANCES

SOCIAL (ARE THE PEOPLE AWARE OF WHAT THEY NEED?)

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

TECHNICAL (IS THE STATE OF KNOWLEDGE AND PRACTICE BEING

APPLIED?)

ADMINISTRATIVE (WHO IS RESPONSIBLE AND ACCOUNTABLE?)

POLITICAL (ARE PUBLIC POLICIES RELEVANT IN TERMS OF THE

THREAT?)

LEGAL (ARE EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES ENFORCED?)

ECONOMIC (WILLINGNESS AND CAPACITY TO PAY FOR SAFETY?)

ALL AFFECT COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE

SOCIAL SYSTEMS

SOCIAL SYSTEMS

“STAPLE” FACTORS“STAPLE” FACTORS

STEP 3: TO MOVEFrom Today’s Paradigm to

Tomorrow’s

The difference between “Today” and “Tomorrow” is ONE GENERATION, which

is characterized by one set of CHAMPIONS leaving the stage and

another coming on.

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS

• PRIOR TO 1980: • HUGH CASUALTIES; ECONOMIC

LOSSES IN THE MILLIONS• SINGLE HAZARD EMPHASIS WITH

DEPENDENCY ON CAPACITY FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• LEGISLATION FOR USA’s NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION PROGRAM

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued)

• PRIOR TO 1980: • EMPHASIS ON POST-DISASTER

STUDIES TO LEARN FROM EARTHQUAKES ADVANCED BY USA AND UNESCO

• LEGISLATION FOR USA’s NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION PROGRAM ENACTED

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM

SHIFTS (continued)• PRIOR TO 1980: • NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE

PROGRAM IN USA• INCREASED INDEMNIFICATION OF

WIND AND EARTHQUAKE LOSSES WITH CASUALTY INSURANCE

• INCREASE IN CAPACITY FOR SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS


SHIFTS (Continued)• 1980-1989: LEARNING TO THINK IN TERMS

OF THE DISASTER PLANNING CYCLE (Preparedness, Mitigation, Emergency Response, Recovery)

• INCREASE IN CAPACITY FOR LOSS ESTIMATION (e.g., insurers, HAZUS-EQ)


SHIFTS (Continued)• 1980-1989: • ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM SINGLE

EVENTS REACH BILLIONS• CASUALTY INSURERS PAY OUT A BILLION

DOLLARS IN ONE DISASTER • EMPHASIS ON PREPAREDNESS AND

MITIGATION (Building codes and lifeline standards)


SHIFTS (Continued)• 1980-1989: • IDENTIFICATION OF “CHAMPIONS” FOR

REGIONAL DISASTER REDUCTION PROMOTED BY USA, UNESCO AND UNDP

• UNANIMOUS APPROVAL OF UN’s RESOLUTION FOR INT’L DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION (i.e., the IDNDR, the decade oif the 1990’s)


SHIFTS (Continued)• 1990-1999: • 155 NATIONS PARTICIPATE IN UN’s INT’L

DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION PROGRAMME

• SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, PLANNERS, AND PUBLIC OFFICIALS LEARN TO THINK IN TERMS OF ALL NATURAL HAZARDS INSTEAD OF SINGLE HAZARDS


SHIFTS (Continued)• 1990-1999: • 155 INDIVIDUAL NATIONS CREATE

NATIONAL COMMITTEES (OR ENTITIES) FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION

• EXPERTS RECOMMEND INCREASED FOCUS ON EARLY WARNING AND PRE- AND POST-DISASTER VULNERABILITY REDUCTION, AND EDUCATION


SHIFTS (Continued)• 1990-1999: • INCREASED NUMBER OF INT’L

CONFERENCES ON DISASTER REDUCTION• PLANNING FOR FIRST WORLD

CONFERENMCE ON NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION IN KOBE JAPAN

• INCREASED FOCUS ON “PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS” AS IDNDR CLOSES


SHIFTS (Continued)• 1990-1999: • CONCEPT OF “SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT” ADVANCED• FOCUS ON “PUBLIC-PRIVATE

PARTNERSHIPS FOR DISASTER REDUCTION” INCREASED AS IDNDR CLOSES


SHIFTS (Continued)• 2000-2014: • UN’s IDNDR PROGRAMME TRANSFORMED

INTO INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION PROGRAMME

• SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, PLANNERS, AND PUBLIC OFFICIALS LEARN TO THINK IN TERMS OF STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS FOR DISASTER REDUCTION


SHIFTS (Continued)• 2000-2014: • WORLD CONFERENCE CONVENED IN

KOBE, JAPAN; THE KYOTO PROTOCOL FOR DISASTER REDUCTION PRODUCED

• CONCEPT OF GLOBAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ADVANCED


SHIFTS (Continued)• 2000-2014: • FORUM ON GLOBAL DISASTER RISK

REDUCTION ESTABLISHED IN DAVOS, SWITZERLAND

• INT’L CONFERENCES CONVENED IN DAVOS IN 2006, 2008, 2010, AND 2012

• PLANNING BEGINS FOR 2ND WORLD CONFERENCE IN JAPAN IN 2015


SHIFTS (Continued)• 2000-2014: • CASUALTIES REACH HUNDREDS OF

THOUSANDS AND ECONOMIC LOSSES REACH HUNDRED OF BILLIONS IN SINGLE EVENTS

• THE FIVE PILLARS OF GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE EMERGES AS AN URGENT GLOBAL PARADIGM

JANUARY 1, 2014MILLIONS OF

COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO FLOOD

DISASTERS

BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN

FLOODSFLOODS

INUNDATION AND SCOUR

INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

EFFECTS OF WATER ON STRUCTURE & CONTENTS

INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH PROBLEMS, INJURIES,

AND DEATH

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

VULNERABILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

JANUARY 1, 2014MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES

ARE NOT RESILIENT TO HURRICANE OR TYPHOON

DISASTERS

WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE

SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS

STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

POOR WORKMANSHIP

IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK



ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING )

IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS

FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE

POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM

IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK


JANUARY 1, 2014

MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO

TSUNAMI DISASTERS

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES

TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS

INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS

FLOODING

NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK



ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO DROUGHT DISASTERS

PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION

DROUGHTS DROUGHTS

LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE

LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER

LOSS OF VEGETATION

INSECT INFESTATION

PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND BY DESERTIFICATION

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK


JANUARY 1, 2014MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE

STILL NOT RESILIENT TO VOLCANIC ERUPTION

DISASTERS

PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA)

IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION)

IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS

IN PATH OF LAHARS

IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK



ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO LANDSLIDE DISASTERS

BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES

LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS

SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS

EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION OR GROUND SHAKING

BARE, OVERSTEEPENED SLOPES

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK



ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO WILDFIRE DISASTERS

LIGHTNING STRIKES

WILDFIRESWILDFIRES

MANMADE FIRES

PROXIMITY OF URBAN-WILDLANDS INTERFACE

WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED

DEFORESTATION

DENUDED SLOPES

HOT, DRY WEATHER

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK


WHAT WILL THE NEXT PARADIGM SHIFT BE?

THE NEXT BRIGHT IDEA WILL EMERGE AS GLOBAL

PROFESSIONALS CONTINUE WORK DURING 2014 AND BEYOND

STRATEGY: BUILD ON PAST PROGRAMSSTRATEGY: BUILD ON PAST PROGRAMS

IDNDR’S GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

ISDR’S COMMON AGENDA IN GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

PRE- AND POST-DISASTER TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE

EXPERIENCES WITH EARLY WARNING, EM. RESPONSE AND RECOVERY

EXPERIENCES WITH PREVENTION AND PROTECTION

GLOBAL ALLIANCE FOR DISASTER REDUCTION

GLOBAL ALLIANCE FOR DISASTER REDUCTION



CREATION AND IMPLEMENTATION

OF REGIONAL DISASTER

RESILIENCE PLANS

CREATION AND IMPLEMENTATION

OF REGIONAL DISASTER

RESILIENCE PLANS EUROPE AND

MEDITERRANEAN

EUROPE AND

MEDITERRANEAN ASIA ASIA

MEDITERRANEANMEDITERRANEAN SUB-SAHARA

AFRICA

SUB-SAHARA

AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

AND

CARIBBEAN

LATIN AMERICA

AND

CARIBBEANSOUTH AMERICASOUTH AMERICA

NORTH AMERICANORTH AMERICA

GOALGOALA GLOBAL NETWORK OF PROFESSIONALS WITH KNOWLEDGE AND POLITICAL CAPITAL TO SOLVE LOCAL, NATIONAL, AND REGIONAL PROBLEMS

A GLOBAL NETWORK OF PROFESSIONALS WITH KNOWLEDGE AND POLITICAL CAPITAL TO SOLVE LOCAL, NATIONAL, AND REGIONAL PROBLEMS

CHAMPIONS

CHAMPIONS

SPONSORSSPONSORS


19-22 AUGUST 2001


19-22 AUGUST 2001

DONORSDONORS


CHANGE


CHANGE


COMMUNITIES


COMMUNITIES

TOPICAL

BLUEPRINTS

TOPICAL

BLUEPRINTS

REGIONAL

BLUEPRINTS.

REGIONAL

BLUEPRINTS.



AND 2015



AND 2015

DISASTERSDISASTERS

Education

Part 3 Three Steps Towards Global Disaster Resilience