Thinking critically-session-1

Thinking critically

The key to success in Oxford and Cambridge University interviews

Session 1

Transition from Learning to Thinking

• Watch video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTv4yD6BKlA• Technique used in video called ‘Misdirection’ • Personal Development coaches also use the idea of

Misdirection to illustrate how our minds filter out information that might be important but we have been directed away from

• In school you are taught to absorb information and perform the tasks in the way the teacher expects

• In higher level education, you need to look at problems from many different perspectives. This may lead you to change the very question you have been given

• Most importantly, you need to be constantly aware of not being misdirected by a set of assumptions you either make yourself .......or others wish you to make!

• This is where Critical Thinking comes in...

What is Critical Thinking?

What is Critical Thinking?

• Formal definition from National Council for Excellence in Critical Thinking at http://www.criticalthinking.org– an intellectually disciplined process of actively and skilfully

conceptualizing, applying, analyzing, synthesizing, and/or evaluating information gathered from, or generated by, observation, experience, reflection, reasoning, or communication, as a guide to belief and action

• Oxford Dictionary definition– The objective analysis and evaluation of an issue in order to form

a judgment

Simon's and my definition

• Treating all information, however received, with scepticism until such time as we understand the reliability of the processes, and the probable veracity of the people, upon which its supposed truth is based

• In other words– Routinely and rigorously testing the consistency of all information

received with other reliable sources and everything else we know

– Relying on all information only as much as can be justified by the outcome of the above processes

– Being sceptical....but never cynical!

Four lies and one truthNot necessarily in that order!

• There is an infinite number of places on the Earth where you

can walk north for a mile, then west for a mile, then south for

a mile, ending up in the same place

• Evolution produces creatures perfectly adapted to their

environment

• In a thunderstorm, you are always safer standing out in the

open than under a tree

• You should drink eight glasses of water a day to stay healthy

• Taking vitamin C helps you avoid catching a cold

And the true statement is...

• There is an infinite number of places on the Earth where you can walk north for a mile, then west for a mile, then south for a mile, ending up in the same place!

What's wrong with the other statements?

• Evolution produces creatures perfectly adapted to

their environment?

• In a thunderstorm, you are always safer standing

out in the open than under a tree?

• You should drink eight glasses of water a day to

stay healthy?

• Taking vitamin C helps you avoid catching a cold?

Think about it...

Why is Critical Thinking so important?

Why is Critical Thinking so important?

• Because

– Progress towards a better world can only be made by constantly seeking deeper truths and disseminating these more widely and effectively

– In a world of constant change and global competition, your careers will inevitably depend on your ability to discover flaws in existing information and new and deeper truths in order to deliver benefit to others

– The top universities need to recruit and train the best thought leaders in order to maintain their reputation....they need outstanding critical thinkers!

Critical Thinking is based on rational and autonomous thought, which since the Age of Enlightenment starting

in late 17th-century Europe, commands the highest respect in Western civilisation

Critical thinking is also very important because there is a huge amount of misinformation in the world! Why is this?

Misinformation is everywhere - Why?

• Most people are not experts. They have flawed understandings of the subjects

they talk and write about

• Even the world's leading authorities disagree on many things - perfect truth is

very elusive

• Much information is just passed on uncritically by people with limited critical

thinking abilities

• Much truth is more complex and layered than simple representations might

suggest e.g. "politicians cannot be trusted" is a gross oversimplification

• Lots of money to be made and power to be won in peddling misinformation

• Lots of people lie to cover their ass

• Even when they are not intentionally lying, many people prefer to blame others

for the world's ills and for their own failures

• Fiction is often a lot more sensational than fact and can easily be made to

appeal to prejudices, especially in conspiracy theories!

Of course the Media has a lot to answer for!

Let's test your critical thinking skills!

• A female patient with no symptoms of disease participates in a routine screening. She tests positive, is alarmed, and wants to know whether she has the disease for certain or if the test may have given a false result. She is 50 years old.

• Her doctor is aware of the following statistics

– The probability that any 50 year old woman has the disease is 1% ("prevalence")

– If a woman has the disease, the probability that she tests positive is 90% ("sensitivity")

– If a woman does not have the disease the probability that she nevertheless tests positive is 9% ("false alarm rate")

• The doctor tells her she has a 90% chance of having the disease. Is he right?


• He is wrong! The correct answer is 10%! Most of the positive results are false for this disease (breast cancer)

• This is because out of 1000 women 98 will test positive but only 9 of these will actually have the disease. 89 are false positives. Therefore the chance of a true positive is 9 in 89 or 1 in 10!


• This question is based on a real questionnaire given to a group of 160 practising gynaecologists in the USA.

• In the experiment more than half of the specialist doctors wrongly responded that the woman's chance of having cancer was 90%!

• Of course this is no reason to avoid medical testing. (A great deal more on this topic can be found by searching on the BBC website under ‘do doctors understand’)

Misinformation is one thing......

• Disinformation is quite another• Now let's get really scary......• And talk about........

Misinformation is one thing......

• Disinformation is quite another• Now let's get really scary......• And talk about........

The Arch-Manipulators!

The really scary people responsible for most of the disinformation in

the world!

The Arch-Manipulators

Who are they?

The Arch-Manipulators

• Governments• Companies• The Media• The Intelligence Services• Religious leaders (some)• Corrupt and incompetent scientists• Criminals/confidence tricksters• Girlfriends and boyfriends• Parents and teachers

Anyone else?

Anyone else?

You and me!

You don't believe me?

• Need six Boards of Directors each comprising– Chief Executive

– Finance Director

– Sales Director

– Chief Scientist

World Baby Foods Inc

• You are all members of the Board of an international baby food company, World baby Foods inc


• You are all members of the Board of an international baby food company, World Baby Foods Inc

• You have just been informed that major new research has shown that one of your main ingredients, Ingredient X, is probably a major cause of ADHD (Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder) in children




• It may already have caused over 10,000 cases of it!





• A leading journalist from a international newspaper is going to call you in 10 minutes to get your reaction





• A leading journalist from a international newspaper is going to call you in 10 minutes to get your reaction

• What do you plan to say?

It gets worse!

• Your advertising agency advises you that if you admit there may be a problem, you will lose 3/4 of your market overnight because no parents want to take risks with their baby's food

It gets worse!


• Your finance director says this will mean you will go bust within 3 months and everyone will lose their jobs

It gets worse!



• The new research into Ingredient X has been done by a very reputable company

It gets worse!

• Your advertising agency advises you that if you admit there may be a problem, you will lose 3/4 of your market overnight because no one wants to take a risk with their baby's food


• The new research into Ingredient X has been done by a very reputable company

• Ingredient X is what gives most of your products a winning taste

However• Previous reputable independent research has always shown

Ingredient X to be safe



• It turns out that the new research has been led by your ex-Chief Scientist, Joe Feinstein, who left your company three years ago after expressing unease about Ingredient X




• Your current Chief Scientist has known Feinstein a long time. He/she is absolutely convinced that Feinstein's reservations about Ingredient X are ill-founded. He/she strongly suspects that the real reason Feinstein left the company was that he was not selected for the Chief Executive position when it became vacant. He/she thinks Feinstein has been seeking revenge on your company ever since





• You have been advised by lawyers that if anyone suggests publicly that Feinstein's motives may be unworthy, they will be sued for millions





• You have been advised by lawyers that if anyone suggests publicly that Feinstein's motives may be unworthy, they will be sued for millions

• None of your competitors uses Ingredient X in its products but that is only because its precise formulation is a closely guarded commercial secret

Over to you! :-)

What is the essence of your dilemma?

What is the essence of your dilemma?

• Uncertainty as to whether or not Ingredient X causes ADHD

• Knowing that most parents need to feel very confident in the safety of baby food before buying it

• No way of resolving the uncertainty quickly

• Suspecting that an enemy may deliberately be trying to create the uncertainty and destroy your company

• Knowing that if Feinstein is right, many more children may suffer long-term illness if you deny there is a problem

• Knowing that if Feinstein is wrong and you fail to assert that from the outset, your company may go out of business

What options do you have?


A. Accept that the new research is worrying and needs to be looked into.

Face the probable destruction of your company as customers decide

not to take the risk of buying your products until the situation

becomes clearer





becomes clearer

B. Withdraw Ingredient X immediately and again risk destruction of your

company because Ingredient X is what gives most of your products a

winning taste





becomes clearer



winning taste

C. Deny there is any risk with Ingredient X and cast doubts on

Feinstein's motives. Mount a campaign to undermine his research




not to take the risk of buying your products until the situation becomes

clearer



winning taste

C. Deny there is any risk with Ingredient X and cast doubts on Feinstein's

motives. Mount a campaign to undermine his research

D. Deny there is any risk with Ingredient X and cast doubts on Feinstein's

motives. Nevertheless commission secretly another reputable research

company urgently to analyse Feinstein's research and provide you with

an assessment. Urgently establish contingency plans to replace

Ingredient X in the event their report supports Feinstein's conclusions

Questions from the journalist

• What is the company's reaction to the news that Ingredient X may have caused over 10,000 cases of ADHD?



• Is it not true that Feinstein was forced out of your company after warning you of the risk 3 years ago?




• What does the company plan to do about the new information? Will it withdraw all its products using Ingredient X?





• How can your company survive?





• How can your company survive?• Does the Board plan to resign over the issue?

Lessons?

• Difficulties of managing uncertainty when the consequences of being wrong are huge

• The risks of always telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, particularly when there is significant uncertainty and people are worried and need assurances

• The temptations that exist to say you are sure when in reality you are not

Lessons?

• All of us under pressure can get dragged into being less than fully truthful

• Most people in senior positions are under pressure of one form or another most of the time

• It leads to huge amounts of misinformation and disinformation at every level

• So scepticism backed by critical thinking is ESSENTIAL in all walks of life at all times!

Next session - Wednesday 6 August 7.00 pm

• How to detect misinformation• How best to handle interview questions• What to read to improve your critical

thinking powers

Before the next session, please read the short handout "Culture Still Matters" by

Victor Davis Hanson and decide what you think about it

Education

Thinking critically-session-1