Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Presentation at the National Institute for Coastal and Harbor Infrastructure, Business Summit, May 7, 2014; New York Academy of Sciences.
Citation preview
How the Dutch Keep Their Feet Dry (and not move to Germany)
Adaptation, Risk Mitigation & National Will
Arjan BraamskampSenior Economic OfficerNetherlands Consulate General in NY
12-04-2023
2
The Netherlands: a delta landscape, penetrated by rivers, subject to sea and river flooding
Deltacommissaris3
The Netherlands, at risk• 400 miles of rivers (Rhine, Meuse)
draining NW Europe• 60% of land at/below sea level• 17 million people, 9 million of which live
below flood level• GDP 600 bln euro (70% of which
produced at/below sea-level)• 2100 miles of flood defences, hundreds
of locks, sluices, pumping stations
• storm surge, wet weather, heavy river discharge, subsiding, drought
• changing climate. SLR: 1 – 2.5 ft ~2100
• water mgmt is a matter of national survival and an opportunity
100 km
AHR
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 6.0 m below MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 4.0 m below MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 2.0 m below MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 0.0 m below MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 0.5 m above MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 1.0 m above MSL
12-04-2023
10
Deltacommissaris
Focus of past mitigation: shorten the coastline
11
300 45 km
750 50 km
12
1958 flood risk/safety standards established“Never Again” mentality
Risk = Consequences x Probability = areas with most risk have highest levels of protection
Cost-Benefit Analysis for all major infra projects (models recently updated given 40 rys of demographic and econ changes)
Caveat for US: Weather and landscape differences• Slow-moving winter storms vs fast-moving
tropical storms (wetter)• Max storm wind speeds different• Rainfall manageable• Small- to- mid-sized rivers
1/10,000 = 1/500?
Deltacommissaris
There…all done…….Now we’re safe!
13 12-04-2023
Subsidence
Mining Gas + salt
Geological
Peat oxidation
The Delta Under Pressure: future challenges, measured
15
Sealevel rise(20 cm-->
60-85 cm/100y)
More /extreme storms?
More/intense rainfall
Spatialdevelopments
Increased erosion
Subsidence10 cm/100yr
Salt intrusion
Decreasedriver
discharge- 60%
Increased river
discharge+ 10%
Deltacommissaris
Present Flood Risk Management policy (2009)(flood resistance to flood accomodation)
Multi-layered approach:
1. Robust Protection
2. Smart land-use planning
Room for the River
Living with Water: spatial planning, urban design, multiple layers of defense and green infra
3. Disaster management (Katrina effect)
Room for the River
Depoldering, the plan3
river MeuseTo the sea
river Merwede
Bottleneck Gorinchem
12-04-202320
waterdynamic3
3waterdynamic
3waterdynamic
3waterdynamic
3waterdynamic
3waterdynamic
Waal River / Nijmegen Project• River bottleneck, channel restriction from 1500m width to
450 m width
Options:
• Ag / undeveloped land available to north
• Northern river bank land targeted for development
• Key road / rail / harbor infrastructure
12-04-202327
Bottleneck
2
1
R 3294 N ijm ege n02
Dike set-back strategy: safety, increased storage / flow capacity, and new land opportunities
12-04-202330
Before / After (impression)
12-04-202332
the bad news
public involvement
salomons judgement
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
first scenario’s
fright fight acquiescence building trust pride
Nijmegen takes lead
definite plan
start realization
Stages
Rotterdam: 4 threats (or an opportunity?)
12-04-2023
34
URBAN FLOODPLAIN
Deltacommissaris
Water Storage Capacity “Rotterdam”
UNDERGROUND WATER STORAGE
Source: The Urbanists
Source: The Urbanists
Deltacommissaris
Scheveningen Blvd: improve mandated protection and urban amenity (2006 safety assessment)
40
Bouldevard Scheveningen De Solà - Morales
Deltacommissaris
Deltacommissaris
Rising seas
• Increasing sea level• Increasing population and economic value in coastal
zones world wide
IPCC, 2007 National Geographic , Sept
2013
Photo: Stephen Wilkes
Deltacommissaris
Building with Nature?
young dune formationyoung dune formationyoung dune formationyoung dune formation
let nature do partof the work ...
while creating newnew eco-opportunities
Deltacommissaris
Dutch Context, coastal erosion
Shortage of natural sediment
Consequence: Structural erosion, 1996 coastline fixed
Solution: Nourishments
City of Egmond
Deltacommissaris
Development of nourishment strategy
Increase in volume
Annual added sand volumes: • Since 1990: 6 mln m3/yr• Since 2001: 12 mln m3/yr
Prospect future : 40-85 mln m3/yr !!
Change in design
Deltacommissaris
~2
km
~ 1 km
Objectives:1. Extra Safety2. Nature area / ‘Quality of living’3. Innovation
‘Hook’ alternative
70 M Euro.21 M m3 of sand
The Sand Engine!
Deltacommissaris
Predictions morphological behaviorDeltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast
Initial design
Deltacommissaris
Initial
After 3 year
After 5 years
After 10 years
After 20 years
Source: Rijkswaterstaat / Shore Monitoring & Research
MEASURED / PREDICTED EVOLUTION (DELFT3D)
Deltacommissaris
Constructed peninsula
Deltacommissaris
Aerial photo Oct. 2011, after 3 mnths
Deltacommissaris
Aerial photo Jan. 2012, after 6 mnths
Deltacommissaris
Aerial photo July. 2012, after 1 yr
Deltacommissaris
Aerial photo July. 2013, after 2 yrs
Sand Motor: Pros & ConsPros:
1. Reduced costs in nourishment & maintenance
2. Reduced environmental Impact (use natural processes)
3. One-time pricetag @ $ 90 mln
4. Offers recreational and R&D opportunities
Cons:
5. Pilot process – Unproven Technology long-term– Difficult to replicate
6. Reduced impact on environment and ecology may be overstated
Stakeholders:
Waterboard DelflandRijkswaterstaatProvince South HollandVan Oord DredgingDeltares
2nd Delta Commission: 2007/08 (Katrina inspired)Working together with water: a living land builds for its future
12-04-2023
57
The Delta Program: safe and productive over 100 years (how to not move to Germany)
Independent Delta Commissioner (and small staff)
2011 – 2014: Research program to identify and quantify challenges
2014: Delta Decisions
2015 – 2020: Develop projects
2020 -2050: 1 billion euro/yr for project implementation
04/12/2023Delta Programme Commissioner58
Cost-benefit analysis for every project
Tipping points approach
No-regret measures
Adaptive management
Dutch – American Collaborations• Post-Katrina Louisiana• Mississippi River Floods (St Louis)• Los Angeles River• SLR in San Francisco Bay (early-stage)• Integrated Delta Management (CA Bay Delta)• Galveston (Ike Dike)• SLR Norfolk• SLR Miami• Post-Sandy Region (NY-NJ-CT)
12-04-2023
59
Deltacommissaris
New Orleans: Urban Water Plan for a Living Water System
12-04-2023
PILOT PROJECT: MirabeauGreater New Orleans Water Management Strategy
FILMORE DRAINAGE IMPACTGreater New Orleans Water Management Strategy
Super-Storm SandyThey said: “We need Dutch barriers!”
We said: “Wait a minute…”
Rebuild by Design
04/12/2023
63
Rebuild by Design• Innovating together to create a resilient region• Initiative by Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force and HUD• Address regional vulnerabilities and develop fundable solutions• Promote resilience through innovative planning and design
“Don’t ask for answers to pre-defined challenges – allow for creative process and for industry expertise
to develop and design multiple solutions that will maximize resilience in the region and reduce
climate-change related risks.”
12-04-2023
64
Source: RebuildbyDesign.org
Design as tool towards resiliency• BIG – The Big U around Manhattan
“Cross-breeding public infrastructure with social programs”• Interboro Team – Regional protection on community level L.I.
“Building with nature: Living with the Bay”• OMA / HaskoningDHV – Hoboken resilient waterfront
“Resist – delay – Store - Discharge”• MIT / ZUS & Urbanisten – New Meadowlands
“Combine functions of Economy – Ecology – Transport – Energy”• Unabridged – A new future of Bridgeport, CT
“Blueprint for coastal community development”• West 8 / WXY / Arcadis – Blue Dunes
“Restoration of coastal barrier functions”
12-04-2023
65
Picking sides…..
12-04-2023
66
For more info about:
• The Art of Flood Fighting• Multiple Layers of Defense• Regional Approach• Dutch soccer• Wooden Shoes, Bikes,
Windmills etc etc
Arjan Braamskamp
12-04-2023 67
Thank You
