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Photo credits: (Top) Richard Herrmann; (Bottom) Donna McCoy, Macduff Everton 1
Rebecca ShawNovember 1, 2010
Adaptation to climate change
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Outline discussion
• Making adaptation plans relevant• Ecosystem-based adaptation• The Window of Opportunity• Design to Win?
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What are we adapting?
Nature’s managers and their institutions● planning and strategies● goals● partnerships
Nature● species● habitats● ecosystem services
Humans and human settlements● Protection from sea level rise, floods, & fires● Reducing human health impacts - relocation to coasts, reallocation of
limited water
4After Marshall et al. 2010
Adaptation planning for slow directional shifts
5After Marshall et al. 2010
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After Marshall et al. 2010
Adaptation planning for high-risk, catastrophic events
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After Marshall et al. 2010
Collision Course:
Many of the human adaptation strategies undermine ecological
adaptation strategies.
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After Marshall et al. 2010
Conservation community
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Reducing impacts of natural disasters
Safeguarding water
Providing clean water
Supporting marine and freshwater fisheries
Safeguarding crop wild relatives
Addressing health issues
Making Adaptation Plan Relevant: Natural Solutions
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Ecosystem-based adaptation
“Ecosystem-based adaptation uses the range of opportunities for the sustainable management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems to provide services that enable people to adapt to the impacts of climate change.”
“Ecosystem-based adaptation is the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as part of an overall adaptation strategy to help people to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change.
● Report of the CBD’s Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change
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Links● Biodiversity to ecological process● Ecological process to ecosystem services● ecosystem services to human systems
Shifts● Adapting nature for nature● Adapting nature for people● ecosystem services to human systems
Makes explicit● Biodiversity conservation alone● Biodiversity and ecosystem service conservation with partners● Costs
Ecosystem-based adaptation
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Promote resilient eco-
systems
Maintain
ecosystem services
Support sectoral
adaptation
Reduce risks and
disasters
Comple-ment infra-structure
Avoid mal-adapta-
tion
Apply ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation
Ecosystem-based adaptation
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Maintain
ecosystem services
Support sectoral
adaptation
Reduce risks and
disasters
Comple-ment infra-structure
Avoid mal-adapta-
tion
Apply ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation
Ecosystem-based adaptation
• Modeling of projected climate change• Revised systematic conservation plans• Revision of projected area system design• Involvement of local communities in restoration and management• Adjusted management plans and programs
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Promote resilient eco-
systems
Maintain
ecosystem services
Support sectoral
adaptation
Reduce risks and
disasters
Comple-ment infra-structure
Avoid mal-adapta-
tion
Apply ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation
Ecosystem-based adaptation
• Valuation of ecosystem services• Determine how climate change is affecting ecosystem services• Identify options for managing ecosystems or managing use• Involve user communities in adaptation action involving ecosystem
services
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Promote resilient eco-
systems
Maintain
ecosystem services
Support sectoral
adaptation
Reduce risks and
disasters
Comple-ment infra-structure
Avoid mal-adapta-
tion
Apply ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation
Ecosystem-based adaptation
• Inclusion of ecosystem-based approaches in state and local adaptation plans;
• Incorporation of biodiversity into land-use management frameworks• Influence sectoral development plans e.g. for agriculture or water
production• Identify migration opportunities of coastal zone management
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Promote resilient eco-
systems
Maintain
ecosystem services
Support sectoral
adaptation
Reduce risks and
disasters
Comple-ment infra-structure
Avoid mal-adapta-
tion
Apply ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation
Ecosystem-based adaptation
• Restore key habitats that reduce vulnerability e.g. coastal wetlands, forests on steep slopes
• Identify vulnerable communities and involve them in restoration efforts
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Promote resilient eco-
systems
Maintain
ecosystem services
Support sectoral
adaptation
Reduce risks and
disasters
Comple-ment infra-structure
Avoid mal-adapta-
tion
Apply ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation
Ecosystem-based adaptation
• Maintain ecological flows in rivers• Restoration of flood plains in for flood attenuation in addition to levees
and berms;
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Promote resilient eco-
systems
Maintain
ecosystem services
Support sectoral
adaptation
Reduce risks and
disasters
Comple-ment infra-structure
Avoid mal-adapta-
tion
Apply ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation
Ecosystem-based adaptation
• Improve impact assessment to deal with impacts of adaptation activities on the natural environment
• Avoid inadvertent impacts on natural ecosystems, communities• Understand short and long term costs of choices.
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After Marshall et al. 2010
Conservation community
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The Window of Opportunity
The opponents are lining up to oppose adaptation - out of fear and with little information
With energy legislation stalled nationally and internationally, much more attention focused on adaptation.
Opportunity to position ecological adaptation as essential to human adaptation – and it is.
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Design to Win for Adaptation?
• What does success look like?• What ecosystem services will
be most relevant to ecological adaptation and human adaptation?
• Can we provide a road map for human adaptation that explicitly support ecological adaptation
• What are the right sectors to include in adaptation planning?
• What will it cost?
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END
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ForageWater Retention
Habitat Integrity
OverlapsWater Yield
Carbon
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Copenhagen DecisionUNFCCC, COP15, December 2009
Invites parties to undertake impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments, including, assessments of financial needs as well as economic, social and environmental costs and benefits of adaptation options
Affirms that enhanced action on adaptation should be...
guided by the best available science, traditional knowledge… with the aim of integrating adaptation actions into relevant social, economic and environmental policies
Building resilience of socio-economic and ecological systems, including through economic diversification and sustainable management of natural resources
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Nagoya, Japan CBD, COP 10 October 2010
...integrate ecosystem-based approaches for adaptation into relevant strategies, including adaptation strategies and plans, …disaster risk reduction strategies and sustainable land management strategies;
...implement ecosystem-based approaches for adaptation, that may include sustainable management, conservation and restoration of ecosystems, as part of an overall adaptation strategy that takes into account the multiple social, economic and cultural co-benefits for local communities;
In the planning and implementation of ecosystem-based approaches for adaptation, different ecosystem management options and objectives should be carefully considered to assess the different services they provide and the potential trade-offs that may result from them;
