Dietary Choices and Climate Change

Photo: Matthieu Paley, National Geographic

Kimberly NicholasLund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund, Sweden

www.kimnicholas.com@KA_Nicholas

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Which causes more global warming?

Photo: Jodi Cobb, National Geographic Photo: Lee Turmpore, National Geographic

Livestock are major greenhouse gas sources

Photo: Jodi Cobb, National Geographic Photo: Lee Turmpore, National Geographic

Sources: FAO, 2006, Livestock’s Long Shadow; 20-year global warming potentials: IPCC WG1 2013, Table 8.A.1; Transport: IPCC WG3 2014, SPM

18%Total greenhouse gas emissions (CO2-equivalent):

14%• 37% methane (84x stronger than CO2)• 65% nitrous oxide (264x stronger than CO2)

5 Things Everyone Should Know About Climate Change

We need a new food paradigm

total agricultural production

real food production

food security goalsenvironmental goals

food distribution and access

resilience of food system

greenhouse gas emissions

biodiversity loss unsustainable water withdrawals

water pollution

minimum goals for 2050

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Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

Right now, we have too little food security…

Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

… and too much environmental harm

Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

We need more real, fair & resilient food

Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

… and less environmental damage

Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

Livestock has major environmental impacts

Domesticating the Planet

Science 2011, 334 (35)

Global meat consumption hasincreased dramatically since 1960

Godfray et al., 2010, Science

Land is limited on the blue planet…

NASA PPM14

Photo: Reuters/Paulo Whitaker15

12% ice-free land used for crops (size of South America)

Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 2004

Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand16

22% ice-free land used for grazing livestock

(size of Africa)

Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 2004

Humans farming the planet

Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 200417

crops

livestock

Cassidy et al., 2013,

Only 59% of calories produced become food

Current crops could feed 4 billion more if fed directly to

people

Slide courtesy Emily Cassidy. Source: Cassidy et al., 2013,

ERL.

Meat is inefficient to produce human nutrition

Livestock are large greenhouse gas producers

Source: Meat Atlas 2014. Data: FAO

ALL water on Earth(1384 km sphere)

Liquid fresh water (270 km sphere)

Fresh water in lakes & rivers(56km sphere)

Data from Shiklomanov, In Gleick 1993,“Water in Crisis.” Visualization by USGS Water Science Photo Gallery

Water Resources Are Limited…

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Agricultural production is 92% of human water footprint

Hoekstra and Mekonnen, 2012, PNAS

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s: N

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Traditional fertilizer

23Photos: Peter Essick, National Geographic

Modern fertilizer

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Photos: Peter Essick, National Geographic Photos: UNEP 2011, National Geographic

Livestock “probably largest sectoral source of water pollution”

(In US: 55% erosion, 37% pesticides, 33% N & P)(FAO, 2006, Livestock’s Long Shadow)

25Photo: NASA

Photo: Mishka Hnner, 2013. Tascosa Feedyards waste lagoon, Texas. Compiled from Google Earth.

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Livestock manure: from valuable nutrient to toxic waste

Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS

Beef uses 28x more landCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs

beef

Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS

Beef uses 11x more waterCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs

beef

Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS

Beef produces 5x more greenhouse gasesCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs

beef

Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS

Beef produces 6x more reactive nitrogenCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs

Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS

Beef has the largest footprint of animal products

How much meat are we consuming?

Data: FAO 2013; map: chartsbin.com

How much meat is recommended?

~0.7 grams / kilogram

90 kilogram person (200

lbs)

63 grams per day = 23 kilograms per year

Otten et al., 2006.

Dietary Reference Intakes: The Essential Guide to Nutrient

Requirements. National Academies Press.

Slide from Emily Cassidy

Source: FAO Food Balance Sheets

Slide from Emily Cassidy

Source: FAO Food Balance Sheets

Slide from Emily Cassidy

Recommendedintake

Most countries are consuming more meat than recommended for health - and the environment

How much meat are we consuming?

Data: FAO 2013; map: chartsbin.com

Too much! Ukraine: 48.5 kg/person

Recommended level

How can we do better?

Health and environmental goals align in plant-based diets

“In terms of immediacy… and

feasibility… [reduced meat

consumption] is clearly the most

attractive opportunity. Give up

meat for one day a week initially,

and decrease it from there.”

Decrease meat consumption

Dr. Rajendra Pachauri

Chair of IPCCQuoted in The Guardian, 7 September 2008

Photo: Elizabeth Ruiz

Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com

Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com

Smaller portions of meat, meat-free meals go a long way

“Meat is a wasteful use of water

and creates a lot of greenhouse

gases. It puts enormous pressure

on the world’s resources. A

vegetarian diet is better.”

Go further

Lord Nicholas Stern

Former World Bank chief economistQuoted in The Daily Mail, 27 October 2009

Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com

Vegetarians had half the carbon footprint of heavy meat eaters

Fish-eaters and vegetarians had similar carbon footprints

Vegans go the extra mile

“We conclude that

reduced ruminant meat and

dairy consumption will be

indispensable for reaching

the 2°C target

with a high probability, unless

unprecedented advances in

technology take place.”Hedenus et al., 2014, Climatic

Change

EAT Forum 2014

Some exciting models

Picture from @kaityarnall

Food Climate Research Network, www.fcrn.org.uk April 2014

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both narrow and broad definitions come with attendant problems. Narrow definitions over simplify the issues and the multiple goals we have for the food system. On the other hand, very broad definitions tend to lack meaningful specificity. Take for example the FAO‟s definition of sustainable diets as: „… diets with low environmental impacts which contribute to food and nutrition security and to healthy life for present and future generations. Sustainable diets are protective and respectful of biodiversity and ecosystems, culturally acceptable, accessible, economically fair and affordable; nutritionally adequate, safe and healthy; while optimizing natural and human resources‟ (FAO 2010). 9 While it is surely hard to disagree with this definition, it is very unclear what such a diet might look like on the plate. It also suggests that these multiple „goods‟ are synergistic, when inevitably there will be trade offs. Figure 1 highlights just a few of the issues that may need considering in defining a „sustainable diet.‟

Figure 1: Issues to consider when defining a sustainable diet

The amorphousness of the word sits at the root of disagreements: stakeholders not only define and use „sustainability‟ differently but, even when they agree about its components, may prioritise issues in different ways. In the case of sustainable diets, environmental NGOs typically place strong emphasis on environmental concerns, on ethical dimensions such as animal welfare and fair terms of trade, and on certain aspects of health - in particular obesity

9 FAO (2010). Final document: International Scientif ic Symposium Biodiversity and Sustainable Diets: United

against Hunger. 3-5 November 2010, Food and Agriculture Organisation, Rome

Garnett, 2014

“What is a sustainable healthy diet?”

We vote with our forks three times every day

Photo: Seven Stans, National Geographic

If we’re serious about

addressing climate

change,

we have to get serious

about reducing meat

consumption.Image: Bill Hogan on vox.com