Political Transitions after a Peace Agreement:

Opportunities for the Bangsamoro

Sam Chittick, International Advisor, FASTRAC

August 17, 2015

What do we know from international experience about political transitions?• No fixed formula• Importance of context• ‘Consent of the governed’

Common understanding of the origins of the conflict?

Source: World Bank 2005 ‘Joint Needs Assessment

for Reconstruction & Development of Conflict

Affected Areas in Mindanao’

Common characteristics of political transitions• Turbulent• Non-linear• Long term• Complex• Joint• Opportunity

Key Questions• From what?• To what?• CAB: “aspiration to chart their political future through a democratic

process that will secure their identity and posterity and allow for meaningful self-governance”• “promoting peace and stability”• “transformation into peaceful and progressive communities”• “honor, justice and dignity for all concerned”

What are the international lessons that are relevant for the Bangsamoro political transition? “Securing the social contract” between citizens and the state, namely:i. building responsive and accountable institutions,ii. promoting inclusive political processes,iii. fostering resilient state-society relations

Source: UNDP Governance for Peace – securing the social contract, 2012

What are the international lessons that are relevant for the Bangsamoro political transition?• Importance of institutions: formal and informal, that will reflect the new

political settlement • Critical importance of security during the transition• Economic conditions affect political stability; economic spoilers threaten

transition.• A focus on growth without inclusive, pro-poor policy development

maintains the status quo.• Promoting public participation in policy development is essential for

transitions to progress.• New openings for engaging citizens

Source: Political Economy of Transitions – comparative experiences, UNDP 2013

What are the international lessons that are relevant for the Bangsamoro political transition? • Legitimacy• Joint decision making• Inclusive institutions and processes• Importance of security, justice and jobs

Central finding: “strengthening legitimate institutions and

governance to provide citizen security, justice and jobs is crucial to break cycles of

violence.”

Strengthening Legitimate Institutions

Source: World Bank 2011 ‘WDR – Conflict, Security & Development’

Institutional Transformation

Citizen security• Practical and symbolic values are both important

• Day to day impact on quality of life• Most visible element of the State• Impacts beyond basic security:Local taxes in ARMM historically low, 2% of total revenue is local taxes, reflecting questions of trust and credibility

• Security must be guaranteed for all, equally• Opportunity to shift from focusing on threats by groups to threats

by individuals. Implies a shift from military to police.

“A well functioning security sector not only directly enforces the law, but by building the legitimacy of the legal enforcement, it creates incentives for the population to respect the laws of their country from internal conviction rather than external intimidation.” (WDR 2011)

Security: Timor Leste

Source: Asia Foundation surveys, graphic from: http://www.developmentprogress.org/blog/2014/05/06/

Citizen Security - Opportunities• Three possible areas of focus:• reductions in different forms of violence by different actors (including armed

violence, violence in the home, violence perpetrated by the state, etc.)• e.g. Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System• e.g. local efforts against ‘rido’

• improved perception of citizen security (past, present and future)• e.g. polling of citizens (Asia Foundation)

• strengthening of state and non-state security structures• Needs long-term commitment • Chance to make communities part of the solution

Source: ODI Working Paper 04/April 2014

Citizen Security - Opportunities• Concrete steps flagged in draft BBL & WDR:• Community policing – redefine community relationships?• Redeployment of forces• Mechanisms of public accountability for Bangsamoro Police

Justice • The political transition and establishment of new institutions is

necessary, but not sufficient. • A robust process of managing and dealing with the past is also

essential.• Formal and informal justice systems should be part of the solution,

especially for transition period• Every transitional justice process is different• e.g. TJRC v Timor v South Africa v Nth Ireland

Justice - Opportunities• Inclusion – important for building bridges to the previously

marginalized• e.g. birth registration for marginalized.

• Traditional justice systems - create bridges between the formal and informal systems in the early stages of transitions.• e.g. International Alert research into informal land trade.

• Land – a key driver of ‘horizontal’ conflict, chance for new institution/s?

Justice - Opportunities• Public financial management as a justice tool: directing funds to

underserved/excluded groups, ensuring information available for them • Social protection programs: can target those previously excluded• Multi-sectoral community empowerment programs that allow

excluded groups to decide their own priorities and investments (CDD etc.)• Social accountability mechanisms: incentives for citizens and

communities to monitor the expenditures most directly affecting their welfare.

Jobs• Job creation requires action on four fronts: (a) policy/regulatory environment; (b) infrastructure; (c) skills development; and (d) direct market interventions - cash for work, etc. • Private sector is responsible for >80% of GDP…

however it can take years to boost private sector investments in conflict areas. • Need public sector to fill the breach in transition.

Jobs: for who?• Challenges of job creation in conflict-affected areas are different than

rest of the country• Outside investors are reluctant, and there is little local capital, skills

base is low• Ex-combatant cohort is different from other groups, need targeted,

tailored programs• Differentiated programs are necessary

Jobs: Aceh lessons after 9 yrs• Aceh is at peace, and prospects for enduring stability are good. • However, widespread perception that GAM rule has failed to

translate into improvements in the daily life of people.• Poverty levels (19.6% in 2011) and unemployment still well

above the national average. Growth is lagging. • High levels of public expenditure have yet to translate in

substantial development outcomes. • Endemic corruption and diversion of public revenues by ex-GAM

for personal enrichment, patronage and campaign funding. • Persisting lack of trust in government above village-level (TAF

2013).

What development measures are most likely to support a peaceful transition?• To break repeated cycles of violence, political transitions need to (i)

build confidence by building inclusive-enough coalitions, and (ii) transform the institutions that provide citizen security, justice and jobs. • Creating the legitimate institutions that can prevented repeated

violence is slow. • Confidence building: build inclusive-enough coalitions; and identify

local community priorities to deliver early results programs. • Engagement by all parties with civil society• Focus on accountability and addressing exclusion during transition

Source: World Bank 2011 ‘Managing Peaceful Transitions – Evidence & Experience’