The results of sociopolitical monitoring "Zaporizhzhia: 4 months after election"

RESULTSSociopolitical monitoring

Zaporizhzhia, 2016

ROUND # 1, MARCH

3/17/2016 1

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The passport of Sociopolitical monitoring, 2016

Rounds, 2016 р. Terms

ROUND # 1 March, 2016

ROUND # 2 June, 2016

ROUND # 3 September, 2016

ROUND # 4 December, 2016

3/17/2016 2

Methodology

Method of Data Collection telephone survey of the residents of Zaporizhzhia

Parent population residents of Zaporizhzhia elder then 18 years, users of all

mobile operators in Ukrainea as well as fixed-line one

Sample 805 respondents

Quota

sex

age

living area

Field work, ROUND # 1 10 – 13.03.2016

Attainability rate 48%

3/17/2016 3

Zaporizhzhia: 4 months after

electionChanges in Zaporizhzhia: better or worth?

3/17/2016 4

Changes in Zaporizhzhia: better or worth?

Character of changes %Enlarged

category

Significantly improved 4,532,3

Somewhat improved 28

No change 4,75,7

Somewhat worse 1

Significantly worse 58,9 58,9

Трудно сказать 3 3

19% 18 – 29 12%

20% 30 – 39 12%

18% 40 – 49 17%

18% 50 – 59 19%

25% 60 + 40%

50% MALE 40%

50% FEMALE 60%

15%GENERAL

SECONDARY19%

37%SPECIALIZED

SECONDARY40%

48% HIGHER 41%

If we would talk about the changes that are taking place in the city

from November 2015. What can you say about these changes?

31

29

32

29

36

41

29

Aleksandrovskiy

Zavodskoy

Kommunarskiy

Dneprovskiy

Voznesenovskiy

Khortitskiy

Shevchenkovskiy

The level of notability of changes within each

district

3/17/2016 5

Zaporizhzhia: 4 months after election The activities of the mayor: support or protest?

How can you assess the work of V. Buryak as a mayor of our city?

3/17/2016 6

Оценка %Укрупненная

категория

Positively 17,147,2

Rather positively 30,1

Rather negative 10,114,9

Negative 4,8

Difficult to answer 37,9 37,9

The activities of the mayor: support or protest?

23% 18 – 29 14%

23% 30 – 39 13%

22% 40 – 49 16%

19% 50 – 59 17%

13% 60 + 41%

55% MALE 43%

45% FEMALE 57%

15%GENERAL

SECONDARY19%

33%SPECIALIZED

SECONDARY41%

52% HIGHER 41% 51

58

49

39

40

52

48

Aleksandrovskiy

Zavodskoy

Kommunarskiy

Dneprovskiy

Voznesenovskiy

Khortitskiy

Shevchenkovskiy

The level of positive assessments of the

mayor’s work within the districts

61

34

2

3

8

75

15

2

6

83

6

5

0 50 100

Changes to thebetter

No change

Chnges to the worth

Difficult to answer

Neutrally Negative Positivly

Assessment of the character of change in the

city, depending on the evaluation of the

mayor’s work

3/17/2016 7

Zaporizhzhia: 4 months after election The electoral balance: who is growing and who loses?

Electoral map of the ratings

3/17/2016 8

Official

results,

‘10.2015

Rating,

opinion poll,

’03.2016

Anti-rating,

opinion poll,

’03.2016

Electoral balance

(rating – anti-

rating)

Buryak V. 31,9 45 9 +36

Frolov M. 12,9 4 13 -9

Grishin Ya, 12,3 3 2 +1

Sin O. 9,4 1 18 -17

Kaltsev S. 8,7 2 10 -8

Starukh O. 6,1 - -

Zotov V. 4,0 - -

Knysh T. 3,3 - -

Vasilenko B. 2,5 - -

Zavgorodnyaya N. 2,1 1 1

Your option 1

It is difficult to say definitely 26

I would not go to the election 17

There is no such person 48

The electoral balance: who is growing and who loses?

Dynamics of changes in public opinion

31,9

12,9

12,3

9,4

8,7

45

4

3

1

2

0 20 40 60

Buryak V.

Frolov M.

Grishin Ya.

Sin O.

Kaltsev S.

Results of opinion poll, '03.2016 Official results, '10.2015

3/17/2016 9

The growth of rating marked only in relation of the incumbent

mayor if to compare with the official results of the first round of

local elections-2015. And the reasons of such situation are:

«-» «+»

47

52

48

44

36

48

46

11

2

9

14

9

3

9

0 20 40 60

Aleksandrovskiy

Zavodskoy

Kommunarskiy

Dneprovskiy

Voznesenovskiy

Khortitskiy

Shevchenkovskiy

Antipathy to V. Buryak

Support to V. Buryak

The level of support of V. Buryak to the

position of mayor within each district

firstly, the exclusion of political information among the primary

interest of citizens due to falling levels of its relevance, and, as a

consequence, the loss of the erstwhile electoral support of the

ex-opponents of V. Buryak;

secondly, a psychological human desire to join the leader, in this case - the winner

of the mayoral elections;

thirdly, the accumulated psychological fatigue that

actualize in the city inhabitants the need to seek

guarantees of stability as well as the emergence of hope,

which are the people associate with the newly elected

mayor.


Profiles of electoral groups

3/17/2016 10

Параметр

Supported

V. Buryak

(N = 366)

Do not support V. Buryak

but DO NOT FEEL

ANTIPATHY to him

(N = 437 )

Do not support

V. Buryak and FEEL

ANTIPATHY to him

(N = 69)

GE

ND

ER Male 43,2 49,2 46,4

Female 56,8 50,8 53,6

AG

E

18 – 29 11,2 21,0 20,3

30 – 39 12,6 21,0 23,3

40 – 49 16,4 19,8 23,2

50 – 59 18,3 17,8 21,7

60 + 41,5 20,5 11,6

ED

UC

AT

ION General Secondary 20,5 13,3 7,2

Specialized secondary 40,7 35,2 23,2

Higher 38,8 51,5 69,6

1 2 3



3/17/2016 11

Parameters

Supported

V. Buryak

(N = 366)

Do not support V. Buryak

but DO NOT FEEL

ANTIPATHY to him

(N = 437 )

Do not support

V. Buryak and FEEL

ANTIPATHY to him

(N = 69)

SO

CIA

LS

TA

TU

S

Leaders 1,1 3,2 4,3

Private entrepreneurs 2,5 4,6 8,7

Engineering and technical staff with

specialized secondary or higher

education

5,8 6,9 5,8

The specialists in the humanitarian

sphere with specialized secondary or

higher education

11,0 15,2 21,7

Technical and support staff 4,9 5,1 1,4

Trade and service workers 5,5 7,1 5,8

Skilled workers 11,2 12,4 11,6

General workers 0,8 1,6 1,4

The specialists in the power sector 0,8 3,7 2,9

Students 2,7 3,7 2,9

Pensioners 44,1 23 21,7

Housewives 5,8 6 2,9

Unemployed 3,8 7,6 8,7

2 31



33,9

49,2

1,6

0,8

14,5

3,2

14,1

17,1

8,2

57,4

1,4

5,8

31,9

30,4

30,4

Positively

Rather positive

Rather negative

Negatively

Hard to say

V. Buryak antipathicsAbstemious*V. Buryak electoral group

Significant change for thebetter

Some changes for thebetter

No changes

Some changes for theworse

Significant change for theworse

It is difficult to saydefinitely

V. Buryak antipathicsAbstemiousV. Buryak electoral group

3,4

3/17/2016 12

2 31

Assessment of V. Buryak's work as a mayor

of the city within the different electoral

groups

37,9

4,8

10,1

30,1

17,1

Whole

sample, %

2,5

2,91,40,5

11,66,8

2,2

72,576,5

37,7

11,248,1

11,6

1,4

0,79

Assessment of the changes in Zaporizhzhia

and its character within different electoral

groups

4,5

4,5

4,5

4,5

4,5

4,5

* Abstemious – those who do not ready to vote for

V. Buryak, but at the same time do not feel antipathy to him.


3/17/2016 13

Decommunization:

for or against?

3/17/2016 14

13,7

9,6

11,3

53,7

9,8

1,9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Fully support

Rather support

Rather unsupport

Completely unsupport

I do not care

Difficult to say

Decommunization: for or against?

February 19, 2016 at the session of the Zaporizhzhia municipal council, it was

decided to rename the 115 streets and to dismantle the monuments of the Soviet

epoch (Lenin, Dzerzhinsky, Ordzhonikidze) within decommunisation policy in

Ukraine.

Tell me, please, what do you think about this decision?

23,3%

65,0%NO SUPPORT

SUPPORT

18 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 59 60+

16,6% 17,1% 18,2% 20,9% 27,3%

General SecondarySpecialized

secondaryHigher

16% 25,1% 58,9

Male Female

46% 54%

Male Female

45% 55%

General Secondary Specialized secondary Higher

16,7% 42% 41,3%

18 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 59 60+

14,9% 17,6% 19,0% 18,4% 30,1%

1 2

3/17/2016 15

18,4

27,4

39,1

71,8

59,453,6

7,711,6

7,2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Electorate of the mayor(V. Buryak)

Abstemious Antipathics to the mayor (V. Buryak)

Supported in some extentNot supported in some extentDo not care

The level of support of decision concerning

decommunization within different electoral groups21

30,7

12,9

23,227,2 27,3

19,2 21

Aleksandrovskiy Zavodskoy Kommunarskiy Dneprovskiy Voznesenovskiy Khortitskiy Shevchenkovskiy

The level of support of the decision concerning

decommunization within districts

Decommunization: for or against?

* Abstemious – those who

do not ready to vote for

V. Buryak, but at the same

time do not feel antipathy to

him.

3/17/2016 16

New patrol police: estimates

and expectations?

3/17/2016 17

Expectations

Rate,

whole

sample

Rate,

Category

«Electorate of

V. Buryak»

Rate,

Category

«Moderate

electorate»

Rate,

Category

«Antipathics

of V. Buryak»

Increasing the level of protection of the citizens from the

arbitrariness and lawlessness38,3 40,4 36,5 39,1

Restoring the order on the roads 37,4 41,2 34,2 40,6

Increasing the level of confidence of the population to

representatives of Patrol Police26,8 28,0 25,7 29,0

Reducing the level of corruption on the roads 21,0 23,4 19,0 17,4

Elevated levels of citizens responsibility for their actions 16,5 17,0 16,1 14,5

Started reforms in other spheres of society 15,3 14,6 15,8 14,5

Distrust of citizens 6,6 5,5 7,6 5,8

Protest by the former employees of the road patrol

service6,8 6,9 6,7 2,9

Your option 0,5 - 0,9 1,4

Do not expect any changes, everything will be the same 38,1 36,0 39,9 33,3

I do not know anything about it 0,6 0,8 0,5 -

New patrol police: estimates and expectations?

The start of work new patrol police is planned to the

March-April. What do you expect from this reform in our

city?

3/17/2016 18

Social-demographic profiles different categories of

citizens (depending on expectation from new police)

Parameters

Do not expect any

changes

(N = 305)

Expect mistrust and

protest

(N = 93)

Expect changes for the

better

(N = 460)

GE

ND

ER Male 50,2 48,4 44,1

Female 49,8 51,6 55,9

AG

E

18 – 29 13,1 17,2 17,8

30 – 39 15,1 24,7 18,0

40 – 49 22,3 11,8 16,3

50 – 59 16,4 17,2 19,3

60 + 33,1 29,0 28,5

ED

UC

AT

ION General Secondary 18,4 21,5 14,2

Specialized secondary 38,5 32,3 38,1

Higher 43,1 46,2 47,7


3/17/2016 19

What do you think about the work of the new patrol police in Kiev,

Dnepropetrovsk, L’vov ...?

EvaluationRate,

whole sample

Rate,

Category

«Electorate of V.

Buryak»

Rate,

Category

«Moderate

electorate»

Rate,

Category

«Antipathics of

V. Buryak»

Excellent. This is one of the few examples

of the real implementation of the reforms in

our country.

5,6 6,8 4,6 8,7

Good. There is a hope that the reforms in

our country are still possible, although

there are questions to the new police.

23,9 25,2 22,8 27,5

Satisfactorily. Better than it was, but

worse than expected.19,7 20,5 18,9 21,7

Unsatisfactorily. New police had

discredited themselves during that time and

I have no the feeling that something has

changed for the better.

13,2 10,7 15,3 14,5

Your option 0,4 - 0,7 2,9

It is difficult to say definitely, I do not know

enough about their work37,3 36,7 37,8 24,6


3/17/2016 20

Social-demographic profiles different categories of citizens

depending on the evaluation of the police’s work

5 4 3 2 Difficult to say

excellent good unsatisfactorilysatisfactorily

29,5%19,7% 13,2%

Male 47,7 51,9 56,6 38,3

Female 52,3 48,1 43,4 61,7

18 – 29 21,5 21,5 14,2 13,7

30 – 39 18,4 18,4 18,9 15,7

40 – 49 18,4 18,4 27,4 14,0

50 – 59 13,9 13,9 14,2 19,0

60 + 27,8 27,8 25,5 37,7

General Secondary 17,7 17,7 19,8 15,4

Specialized

secondary36,7 36,7 40,6 42,3

Higher 45,6 45,6 39,6 42,3

37,3%


3/17/2016 21

Evaluation of the police action in the situation that has

led to the deaths of seventeen year old man (Kiev)

Evaluation

Rate,

whole

sample

Rate,

Category

«Electorate of

V. Buryak»

Rate,

Category

«Moderate

electorate»

Rate,

Category

«Antipathics

of V. Buryak»

Definitely the police were right to carry out their

duties.20,5 22,5 18,9 31,9

Most likely, the police acted correctly, though the

situation is not easy and there is a necessity in detailed

study of the circumstances of the incident.

23,2 26,1 20,7 18,8

Most likely, the police exceeded their powers. I do not

think that it is necessary to fire on the car, even if it

does not stop at signals patrol.

14,9 12,9 16,6 14,5

Definitely police actions are not correct. This is

lawlessness to shoot at the car with people, even if it

violates the rules of the road. It is necessary to use

other methods.

11,6 9,9 13,0 15,9

Your option 0,2 0,3 0,2 -

It is difficult to say definitely 10,2 10,2 10,3 10,1

I do not know anything about this incident 19,3 18,1 20,3 8,7


3/17/2016 22

Expectations for 2016:

survival or development?

3/17/2016 23

47,2

15,4

11,1

10,1

8,1

3

2,7

1,9

0,5

0 10 20 30 40 50

Survival

Changes for the better

Adaptation to the difficulteconomic conditions

Decline

Saving of acquired

Growth

Stability

It is difficult to answer

Your option

Expectations for 2016: survival or development?

Taking to the attention difficult economic situation in the

country, what can you say about your expectations from

2016. For me / my family, it will be a year ...?

55% of pessimistic part of

inhabitants, are in the age of 50

years and elder with a dominant

secondary special education and a

high rate of pensioners, as well as

professionals involved in physical

labor

40% of optimistic part of

inhabitants, are in the age under 39

years, with higher education and

higher rate of employment in the

intellectual sphere, managers and

entrepreneurs

3/17/2016 24

Cabinet of Ministers: support

or resignation?

3/17/2016 25

54,8

16,7

9,8 6,9 11,8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Stronglysupports

resignation

Rather supportthe resignation

Rather againstthe resignation

Definitely againstthe resignation

Hard to say

Cabinet of Ministers: support or resignation?

How do you feel about the resignation of A. Yatsenyuk

and all the Cabinet of Ministers?

Support the resignation

in some extent

71,5%

Against the resignation

in some extent

16,7%

9

51

14

10

2

2

11

1

7

35

21

14

6

5

9

1

2

Saving of acquired

Survival

Changes for the better

Adaptation to difficulteconomic conditions

Growth

Stability

Decline

Your option

Hard to say

Against the resignation Support the resignation

Interconnection between the

supporting of the resignation of

ministers and expectations from 2016

Contacts3/17/2016 26

3/17/2016 27

Contacts

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[email protected]

+380 (97) 7213496

+380 (50) 2826894

Zaporizhzhia

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The results of sociopolitical monitoring "Zaporizhzhia: 4 months after election"