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Presentation of Jose Luiz Marcusso Bank of America Merrill Lynch Conference November, 2012
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Santos Basin Development
November, 2012
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the Company’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for 2012 on are estimates or targets.
All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
20% OF THE DOMESTIC NATURAL GAS SUPPLY
5% OF THE DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCTION
SANTOS BASIN DEVELOPMENT CURRENT PARTICIPATION
SANTOS BASIN PRODUCTION AREAS
South Area
Merluza Area
Uruguá Area
Pre-Salt Area
Mexilhão Area
UTGCA UGN
RPBC
TEFRAN
Lula
Uruguá-Tambaú
Mexilhão
Merluza-Lagosta
174 Km
Merluza-RPBC (1993, May), Lagosta (2009, April)
Uruguá-Mexilhão and Mexilhão-UTGCA (Abril/2011), Lula-Mexilhão (2011, September)
REVAP
SANTOS BASIN GAS PIPELINES
SANTOS BASIN PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
BAÚNA E PIRACABA (SS-11)
MERLUZA (PMLZ-1)
MEXILHÃO (PMXL-1)
SANTOS BASIN PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
7
FPWSO DYNAMIC PRODUCER
FPSO BW CIDADE DE SÃO VICENTE
SANTOS BASIN PRODUCTION SYSTEMS Extended Well Test and Early Production Systems
URUGUÁ – TAMBAÚ (FPSO CIDADE DE SANTOS)
SANTOS BASIN PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
LULA (FPSO CIDADE DE ANGRA DOS REIS)
SANTOS BASIN PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
CARAGUATATUBA - UTGCA (ONSHORE GAS PROCESSING PLANT)
SANTOS BASIN PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
11
OPERATION SUPPORT FACILITIES IN SANTOS CITY Opened: 2006, March (temporary installation)
OPERATION SUPPORT FACILITIES IN SANTOS CITY Opened: 2007, December (temporary installation)
INTEGRATED OPERATIONS CENTER (PILOT) IN SANTOS CITY Opened: 2009, July
OPERATION SUPPORT FACILITIES (including the Geology Lab) Opened: 2009, October (temporary installation)
Petrographic Description
Petrophysical Analysis
Data Analysis
• Stratigraphic Studies
• Sedimentological Analysis
• Petrophysical Characterization
GEOLOGY LAB
IT AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS SUPPORT IN SANTOS CITY Opened: 2010, November (4 floors)
SUPPORT FACILITIES IN SANTOS CITY Opened: 2011, March (temporary installation)
OPERATION SUPPORT FACILITIES IN SANTOS CITY Opened: 2011, November (temporary installation)
SANTOS BASIN DEVELOPMENT BP 2012-2016 AND STRATEGIC PLAN 2020 (FUTURE PARTICIPATION OF THE SANTOS BASIN)
DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCTION AND NATURAL GAS SUPPLY (IMPORTANCE OF SANTOS BASIN)
• BP: 38 new Production Systems until 2020
• 25 in Santos Basin
• 24 in the Pre-Salt area
• Challenge: maximizing operational performance
95%69% 42%
5%30%
28%1%
19%
12%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Post-salt Pre-salt (Concession) Transfer of Rights New Discoveries*
PRODUCTION CURVE IN BRAZIL - OIL AND LNG Post-Salt, Pre-Salt and Transfer of Rights
Th
ou
san
ds b
pd
Production Curve in Brazil – Oil and LNG Production
(*) Includes new opportunities in blocks where discoveries have already been found
2014
Norte Pq.
Baleias (P-58)
Roncador IV
(P-62)
Sapinhoá Norte
(Cid. Ilhabela)
Iracema Sul
(Cid.
Mangaratiba)
2016
Lula Alto
Lula Central
Lula Sul
Franco 1
Carioca 1
Lula Norte
Franco 2
2012
Baleia Azul
(Cid. Anchieta)
Baúna e Piracaba
(Cid. Itajaí)
2013
Piloto Sapinhoá
(Cid. São Paulo)
Piloto Lula NE
(Cid. Paraty)
Papa-Terra
(P-61 e P-63)
Roncador III
(P-55)
2015
Iracema Norte
2017
Lula Ext. Sul
Iara Horst
NE Tupi
Carimbé
Aruanã
Iara NW
Franco 3
2018
Franco 4
Sul de Guará
Júpiter
Carcará
Sul Pq. Baleias
Franco 5
Espadarte I
2020
Espadarte III
Florim
2019
Maromba
Bonito
Entorno de Iara
2,022
2,500
4,200
Stable Prod. (± 2%) 4-6% p.y. Growth
NATURAL GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND (MILLION m³/d) DEMAND SUPPLY
Total
Demand
24 24 24
666
Thermo Power Plants Demand: Petrobras + Third Parties
Total
Supply 139
123
21 2511
553
Downstream
Fertilizers 26
Petrobras Demand: Downstream + Fertilizers
Non–thermal power
2016
Bolivian Supply
Domestic NG Supply
Supply via LNG Regasification Terminals
32 34 35
1112 12
6
Inflexible
Flexible
2016
NG Distributors Demand
46 (8,0 GW)
PCS 9.400 kcal/m³
44 62 756
64
North Region
Other Regions
68
2020
81
41
Guanabara Bay
Pecém
Bahia
Firm
Flexible
30 30
152
52 (9,3 GW)
2020
2016 2020
51 65
30
147
2011
48
21
99
2011
44 (7,5 GW)
41
2011
14
99
2016 2020 2011
41
2016 2020 2011 2016 2020 2011
30
To be contracted
20 20
14 14
14
7 7 7
The current reserve / production of
Petrobras corresponds to 19.2 years
In 2011, the Brazilian total increase in
reserves was 1.24 billion boe. Of this
total, 0.98 billion boe refers to Pre-Salt
Over the past 20 years, the proved reserves in Brazil increased by 164%
DOMESTIC PROVED RESERVES AND EXPLORATORY SUCCESS
+164%
+3%
5,96 7,53
9,65
13,23
15,28 15,71
Exploratory Success (Brazil)
Pre-Salt:
94%* ( 2011)
40% 57% 59%
2009 2010 2011 1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011
Proved Reserves (billion boe) * Index of exploratory success in the fields operated by
Petrobras in the Pre-salt Area of Santos Basin
-
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
Onshore 0-300m 300-1500m > 1500m Pre-salt's Recovery Volume Transfer of Rights
* Lula/Iracema, Iara, Guará and Whales Park, ranging from 7.3 to 8.5 Billion boe
RESERVES AND RECOVERABLE VOLUMES Rapid growth in reserves from discoveries in deep waters
Million boe
Garoupa Namorado
Marlim
Roncador
Whales Park, Mexilhão
Pre-salt: Lula and Iracema
15,70 Bi boe
Carmópolis Guaricema
Pre-salt: Sapinhoá
Shallow-water
Proved Reserves – SPE criteria
MAIN DISCOVERIES IN 2012
Date Basin Field Participation Quality of
the Oil
Estimated Recoverable Volume
Water
Depth (m)
Feb -12 Solimões Igarapé Chibata BR (100%) 41º API Production capacity:
1,400 bpd of oil 45k m3 of gas
3,295 (Onshore)
Feb -12 Santos Franco NW (TR) BR (100%) 28º API (Pre-Salt) Right to produce up to
3.058 Bi boe 1,860
Feb -12 Santos Carioca Sela BR(45%) BG(30%) RPS(25%) 27º API (Pre-Salt) Not Disclosed 2,149
Feb -12 Santos Bauna e Piracaba BR (100%) 34º API (Bauna)
32º API (Picaraba) 113 MM boe (Bauna)
83 MM boe (Piracaba) shallow water
Feb -12 Campos Pão de Açucar BR(30%) RPS(35%) STO(35%) Pre-Salt Oil > 700 MM boe of oil 545 MM boe of gas
2,800
Mar-12 Santos Tupi Northeast (TR) BR (100%) 26º Oil API (Pre-Salt) Right to produce up to
428 MM boe 2,131
Mar-12 Santos Carcará BR(66%) PGL(14%)
BARRA(10%) QG(10%) 31º Oil API (Pre-Salt) Not Disclosed 2,027
Apr-12 Santos Iara Oeste BR(65%) BG(25%) PGL(10%) 21º to 26º API (Pre-Salt) 3 to 4 Bi boe (BMS-11) 2,150
Apr-12 Santos Dolomita Sul BR (100%) Pre-salt Oil Not Disclosed 1,747
June-12 Santos Sul de Guará (TR) BR(45%) BG(30%) RPS(25%) 27º API (Pre-Salt) Right to produce up to
319 MM boe 2,202
July -12 Esp.Santo Grana Padano BR (40%) IBV(30%) ANADARKO(30%)
15º API Not Disclosed 1,208
Aug-12 Ceará Pecém BR (60%) BP(40%) Oil Not Disclosed 2,129
Aug-12 Santos Franco SW (TR) BR (100%) 28º to 30º Oil API Right to produce up to
3.058 Bi barrels oil 2,024
Aug-12 Sergipe Alagoas Barra BR (60%) IBV(40%) 38º API Not disclosed 2,433
Aug-12 Sergipe Alagoas Moita Bonita BR (100%) light oil, gas and
condensate Not disclosed 2,775
Note: TR = Transfer of Rights
2012-2016 CAPEX Implementation Vs. Evaluation
US$ 208.7 Billion US$ 27.8 Billion US$ 236.5 Billion
28%
** E&P abroad
RTM E&P Petrochemical Distribution Biofuel Corporate G&E
60.0%
(US$ 141.8 Billion)
27.7%
(US$ 65.5 Billion)
1.3%
(US$ 3.0 Billion)
1.6%
(US$ 3.8 Billion)
1.5%
(US$ 3.6 Billion)
2.1%
(US$ 5.0 Billion)
5.8%
(US$ 13.8 Billion
24.8%
US$ 51.7 Billion
1.4%
(US$ 3.0 Billion)
0.9%
(US$ 1.9 Billion)
1.7%
(US$ 3.5 Billion)
1.8%
(US$ 3.7 Billion)
3.7%
(US$ 7.8 Billion)
17% (**)
(US$ 4.6 Billion)
50%
(US$ 13.9 Billion)
21%
(US$ 6.0 Billion)
5%
(US$ 1.3 Billion)
0%
(US$ 0.1 Billion)
7%
(US$ 1.9 Billion)
Under Implementation Under Evaluation
+ = 2012-2016 BP All E&P projects in Brazil and projects of the
remaining segments in phase IV* Projects for the remaining segments
currently in phase I, II and III.
833 projects 147 projects 980 projects
* Includes budget already designated for projects under evaluation for RTM, G&E, Petrochemical, Distribution, Biofuels and Corporate
65.8%
(US$ 137.2 Billion)
2012-2016 CAPEX Exploration & Production
69% (US$ 89,9 Bi)
19% (US$ 25,4 Bi)
12% (US$ 16,3 Bi)
Infrastructure and Support
Exploration
Production Development
E&P US$ 131.6 billion*
* Does not include International E&P investments
Exploration US$ 25.4 Billion
Production Development US$ 89.9 Billion
8%
(2) 69%
(17.5)
24%
(6)
Transfer of Rights
Post-Salt
Pre-Salt
49%
(43.7)
34%
(30.2)
18%
(16.3)
Transfer of Rights
Post-Salt
Pre-Salt
EXPLORATION INVESTMENTS IN BRAZIL Focus on New Frontiers
Pre-salt 24% (6.0)
69% (17.5)
Transfer of Rights
Post-salt
8% (2.0)
Investments focused on:
• New Frontiers (Equatorial Margin and East Margin), to ensure a continued R/P ratio higher than 15 years
• Consolidation and appraisal of the Pre-salt and Transfer of rights areas
Co
nso
lidat
ion
an
d A
pp
rais
al
New
Fron
tiers Finding Cost (US$ / boe)
Petrobras Costs Lower than the Majors
(2007-2011): US$ 3.2 to 4.5 / boe
Equatorial Margin
East Margin
1.56 Concession Areas
March, 2012
Petrobras Other Companies
US$ 25.4 billion
Project Capacity 1st Oil Hull Top Side /
Integration
Local Content
Commit. Target
Baleia Azul
FPSO Cid. Anchieta 100 kbpd Sep/2012 Existing
SBM
Cingapura 0% 44%
Baúna and Piracaba
FPSO Cid. Itajaí 80 kbpd Dec/2012
Jurong
Cingapura
Odebrecht and Teekay
Cingapura 60% 81%
Sapinhoá Pilot
FPSO Cid. São Paulo 120 kbpd Jan/2013
Cosco Shipyard
China
Schahin/Modec
Brasfels 30% 50%
Lula NE Pilot
FPSO Cid. Paraty 120 kbpd May/2013
Keppel Shipyard
Cingapura
QGOG/SBM
Brasfels 30% 30%
Papa-Terra
P-63 140 kbpd July/2013
Cosco Shipyard
China
Quip
Rio Grande 0% 65%
Roncador Module III
P-55 180 kbpd Sep/2013
EAS
Brasil
Quip
Rio Grande 0% 65%
Papa-Terra
P-61
Natural
Gas Oct/2013
Floatec
Brasfels
Floatec
Brasfels 0% 65%
Parque das Baleias
P-58 180 kbpd Jan/2014
Queiróz Galvão
Rio Grande
Queiróz Galvão
Rio Grande 0% 58%
Roncador Module IV
P-62 180 kbpd Mar/2014
Camargo Corrêa/IESA
EAS
Camargo Corrêa/IESA
EAS 0% 65%
Sapinhoá Norte
FPSO Cid. Ilhabela 150 kbpd Sep/2014
QGOG/SBM
China
QGOG/SBM
SBM/BRASA 30% 47%
Lula - Iracema Sul
FPSO Cid. Mangaratiba 150 kbpd Nov/2014
Cosco Shipyard
China Not define 30% 47%
NEW PRODUCTION UNITS - 2012-2014 New platforms built domestically and abroad will contribute to production
* Note: “FPSO Cid. XX” = Leased / “P-XX” = Owned 29
FPSO Cidade de Anchieta – Baleia Azul Operating since Sep 10th, 2012
Production Ramp up
(bpd)
Sep/12 29,700
Oct/12 52,185
Nov/12 52,185
Dec/12 72,000
Peak (100 kbpd): Feb/13
Interconnection of
Producing Wells
1st Well sep/10/12
2nd Well sep/21/12
3rd Well sep/26/12
4th Well nov/12/12
5th Well nov/13/12
Local Content - Mandatory: 0% Forecast Accomplishment : 44%
BrasFels Shipyard - RJ
1
2
3
Cid. São Paulo Cid. Paraty
P-61
View of BrasFels Shipyard, in Angra dos Reis – RJ (Aug 31st, 2012)
(1) P-61 (LC:65%): Construction of the HULL of the TLWP and integration of TOPSIDE (deckbox and modules constructed in Singapore).
(2) FPSO Cidade de São Paulo (LC:65%): Conversion of the HULL in China and integration of 15 modules, constructed in Brasfels (5 mod), Enaval (1 mod), Thailand (8 mod) and China (2
mod).
(3) FPSO Cidade de Paraty (LC:65%): Conversion of the HULL and integration of 15 modules constructed in (5), Nuclep (4), Enaval (2) and Singapore (4).
4.200
2.500
2.022
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cid. São Paulo
Cid. Paraty
P-61
Current Jobs: 7,000
NEW PRODUCTION UNITS Platforms under construction or already contracted will meet mid-term needs
8 Replicant FPSOs for Pre-Salt
• Oil Production Capacity: 150,000 bpd per unit
• Installation in Pre-salt areas BMS-9 and BMS-11
• Hulls under construction at Rio Grande Shipyard
• Contracts approved for the construction and integration of the topside modules of the six first units: DM/TKK, IESA, Tome/Ferrostaal, Mendes Jr/OSX
• These contracts total US$ 4,5 billion
• The two remaining topside modules and integration package contracts are expected to be awarded by 2013 with the same companies
4 VLCCs Conversion to FPSOs
• Oil Production Capacity: 150,000 bpd per unit
• Installation in Transfer of Rights Areas (Franco and Nordeste de Tupi)
• Conversion will be made at the Inhauma Shipyard
• Two units will be converted by 2014 and the other two by 2015
• The next stage will involve installing the oil and gas processing and production plant modules and integrating the units
Rio Grande Shipyard – ERG1 - RS
View of Rio Grande Shipyard ERG1 – RS (Sep 3rd, 2012)
(1) Steel plates of Ecovix; (2) Sub-blocks of the Hulls of the replicants of Ecovix; (3) QUIP modules for Topside and integration of P-55; (4) Modules of the IESA; (5) Pre edification area , with
details for the yellow blocks of the Goliath crane type of the Konecranes (biggest crane in the world: 210m high and capacity of 2 thousand ton) delivered in Aug/12; (6) Work integration of P-55;
(7) Work construction of Rio Grande Shipyard ERG 2, where will be constructed 3 Drilling Rigs of Setebrasil (NS Cassino, NS Curumim e NS Salinas)
1
2
3
3
4
5
6
7
P-55
P-69
P-66
P-67
P-68
P-70
P-71
P-72
P-73
Empregos Atuais: 3.500
4.200
2.500
2.022
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
P-66
P-67
P-68
P-69
P-55
P-70
P-71
P-73
Current Jobs: 3,500
Inhaúma Shipyard- RJ
Overview of Inhaúma Shipyard, in Rio de Janeiro – RJ (Aug 31st, 2012)
(1) P-74: Hull´s conversion of VLCC ship (structural reinforcement of the hull, enlargement, reform and adaptation of arrangement, installations of equipments and adaptation of anchorage
system).
1
4.200
2.500
2.022
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
P-74
Current Jobs: 109
DRILLING RIGS AVAILABILITY Necessity met with imported and domestic units
Nu
mb
er o
f D
rilli
ng
Rig
s (W
ater
Dep
th >
2.0
00
m)
33 new domestic drilling rigs from 2016 on: Local Content between 55% and 65%
Drilling Rigs: Imported vs. Domestic
42 42 42 42 42
• Mid-term needs for drilling rigs are now largely satisfied. Future intermediate demand will be limited to specific situations and needs.
• Starting in 2016, Brazilian built rigs expected to begin replacing internationally built fleet as their contracts expire (and subject to total fleet needs).
• If for any reason the domestic rigs are not completed as scheduled, Petrobras has the possibility of renewing some or all of expiring leases.
NATURAL GAS FLOW Projects to transport natural gas to the coast include gas pipelines and FLNG
• Distance of about 300 km from the coast
• Huge demand of air and sea transportation
• Complexity of the gas network
• Operation of 20 own platforms and the onshore gas processing plant, involving different partners in 18 platforms
• Wells and platforms with large production, demanding efficient surveillance and monitoring
• Operational and environmental risks
• Need for quick and efficient response to any contingencies
COMPLEXITY OF THE OPERATIONS IN SANTOS BASIN
• 25,000 m2 of land
• 3 towers for about 2,200 people each
• First tower: occupation in early 2014
FUTURE PETROBRAS OPERATIONS SUPPORT FACILITIES IN SANTOS CITY
Around 2,900 m2 of the second basement and the 4th floor with another 1,190 m2 area
FUTURE INTEGRATED OPERATIONS CENTER IN SANTOS CITY in Santos Basin Operations Unit (to be opened: early 2014)
CONSTRUCTION SITE (Overview – October/2012) FUTURE PETROBRAS OPERATIONS SUPPORT FACILITIES IN SANTOS CITY
CONSTRUCTION SITE (Overview – Nov 1st, 2012) FUTURE PETROBRAS OPERATIONS SUPPORT FACILITIES IN SANTOS CITY
CONSTRUCTION SITE (Overview – Nov 4th, 2012) FUTURE PETROBRAS OPERATIONS SUPPORT FACILITIES IN SANTOS CITY
• Predictive solutions for maintenance and integrity of equipment (Condition Based Maintenance, Critical Equipment Management and Monitoring of Electrical Facilities)
• Contingency and Telemedicine
• Operational Support
• Solutions to support the processes integration and predictive analyses, throughout the surveillance for:
Topside and process plant operations
Well operations
Reservoir geology and engineering
• Integrated Planning and Logistics (IPL)
• Integration of projects implementation
• Collaboration with suppliers and vendors
• Drilling Center
SANTOS BASIN INTEGRATED OPERATIONS CENTER (Main Solutions to ensure high operational performance)
CHALLENGES • Maximizing scale, standardization and integration (critical resources) and developing infrastructure and logistics • Developing new technologies and industry to meet local content requirements • Maximizing operational performance
OPPORTUNITIES • Abundant oil and gas reserves • A growing oil production and natural gas supply • Monetizing natural gas
CONCLUSION – SANTOS BASIN DEVELOPMENT A Portfolio of opportunities and challenges
45
Information:
Investor Relations
+55 21 3224-1510
www.petrobras.com.br/ir