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Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
1
Ipsos MORIJuly 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS
3Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections = 764. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is
an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
Voting Intention
33%
38%
8%
4%
10%
7%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -5 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
36%
35%
8%
4%
11%
6%
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 4
SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS
5Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
21%
37%
42%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
24%
69%
7%
-7.5%swing from June 2016
-8%swing from June 2016
-1.5%swing from June 2016
-9%swing from June 2016
-38 Net -41 Net -16 Net -45 Net
SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 24% SATISFIED 21% SATISFIED 24%
DISSATISFIED 66% DISSATISFIED 65% DISSATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 69%
28%
66%
6%
24%
65%
11%
David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government
6Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS
JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Satisfaction with Party leaders May 2010 – July’16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
CAMERON CORBYN FARRON
28%
24%
21%
7Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Net
sati
sfact
ion
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
8Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Net
sati
sfact
ion
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)
9Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY / AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
David Cameron (satisfaction)
28%
66%
6%
July 2016 May 2006 –July 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May-0
6
Sep
-06
Ap
r-07
Au
g-0
7
Jan
-08
May-0
8
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May-0
9
Sep
-09
Jan
-10
May-1
0
Oct
-10
Feb
-11
Jun
-11
Oct
-11
Feb
-12
Jun
-12
Oct
-12
Feb
-13
Jun
-13
Oct
-13
Feb
-14
Jun
-14
Oct
-14
Feb
-15
Jun
-15
No
v-1
5
Mar-
16
Jul-
16
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 28%
DISSATISFIED 66%
DON’T KNOW 6%
Net = -38
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
10Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
60%
36%
4%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 292 Conservative supporters Base 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
July 2016 May 2006 –July 2016
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May 0
6
Oct
06
May 0
7
Sep
07
Feb
08
Jun
08
Oct
-08
Feb
-09
Jun
-09
Oct
-09
Feb
-10
Jun
-10
Jan
-11
May-1
1
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May-1
2
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
May-1
3
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May-1
4
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-15
Oct
-15
Feb
-16
Jun
-16
SATISFIED 60%
DISSATISFIED 36%
DON’T KNOW 4%
Net = +24
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
11Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
24%
65%
11%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
SATISFIED 24%
DISSATISFIED 65%
DON’T KNOW 11%
Net = -41
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
July 2016 September 2015 – July 2016
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
12Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
45%
48%
7%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
SATISFIED 45%
DISSATISFIED 48%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = -3
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 310 Labour supporters Base 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
July 2016 September 2015 – July 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
13Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
21%
37%
42%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
SATISFIED 21%
DISSATISFIED 37%
DON’T KNOW 42%
Net = -16
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
July 2016 September 2015 – July 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 14
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM
15Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
23%
16%57%
4%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun
-04
Sep
-04
Dec-
04
Mar-
05
Jun
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
Ap
r-06
Jul-
06
No
v-0
6A
pr-
07
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Feb
-08
May-0
8A
ug
-08
No
v-0
8Feb
-09
May-0
9A
ug
-09
No
v-0
9Feb
-10
May-1
0Sep
-10
Dec-
10
Mar-
11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
Dec-
11
Mar-
12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec-
12
Mar-
13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec-
13
Mar-
14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec-
14
Mar-
15
Jun
-15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
rl-1
6Ju
l-16
IMPROVE 23%
STAY THE SAME 16%
GET WORSE 57%
DON’T KNOW 4%
EOI = -34
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
Economic Optimism Index
July 2016
16Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jul 1998
No
v 1
998
Mar
1999
Jul 1999
No
v 1
999
Mar
2000
Jul 2000
No
v 2
000
Mar
2001
Jul 2001
No
v 2
001
Mar
2002
Jul 2002
No
v 2
002
Mar
2003
Jul 2003
No
v 2
003
Mar
2004
Jul 2004
No
v 2
004
Mar
2005
Jul 2005
No
v 2
005
Mar
2006
Jul 2006
No
v 2
006
Mar
2007
Jul 2007
No
v 2
007
Mar
2008
Jul 2008
No
v 2
008
Mar
2009
Jul 2009
No
v 2
009
Mar
2010
Jul 2010
No
v 2
010
Mar
2011
Jul 2011
No
v 2
011
Mar
2012
Jul 2012
No
v 2
012
Mar
2013
Jul 2013
No
v 2
013
Mar
2014
Jul 2014
No
v 2
014
Mar
2015
Jul 2015
No
v 2
015
Mar
2016
Jul 2016
-34
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 17
EUROPE
18Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER
OR WORSE FOR EACH OF FOLLOWING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
Impact of Brexit on economy and standard of living
18%
21%
39%
55%
26%
38%
46%
39%
11%
11%
15%
9%
29%
36%
35%
24%
49%
49%
7%
4%
16%
11%
9%
5%
Britain’s economy over the next five
years
Britain’s economy over the
next ten to twenty years
Your own standard of living
May ‘16
May ‘16
May ‘16
July ‘16
July ‘16
July ‘16
BETTER
MAKES NO
DIFFERENCE WORSE DON’T KNOW
19Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER
OR WORSE FOR EACH OF FOLLOWING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,026 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
Impact of Brexit on other issues
BETTER
MAKES NO
DIFFERENCE WORSE DON’T KNOW
59%
59%
19%
31%
29%
32%
32%
32%
15%
16%
32%
24%
31%
33%
34%
27%
20%
21%
43%
42%
34%
31%
26%
36%
7%
4%
7%
4%
8%
5%
8%
5%Britain’s public services
Britain’s national security
Britain’s influence in the world
May ‘16
May ‘16
May ‘16
July ‘16
July ‘16
July ‘16
Britain’s ability to make decisions in its
own best interestsMay ‘16
July ‘16
20Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
AND NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK THE NUMBER
OF … COMING TO THE UK WILL BE HIGHER OR LOWER THAN IF BRITAIN HAD VOTED TO REMAIN, OR
WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
Impact of Brexit on immigration numbers
5%
4%
9%
3%
51%
41%
17%
32%
13%
17%
5%
3%
Immigrants from countries outside the EU
EU immigrants
A LOT HIGHER A LITTLE HIGHER
IT WILL MAKE NO
DIFFERENCE A LITTLE LOWER A LOT LOWER DON’T KNOW
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 21
THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER
22Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
Potential Prime Ministers?
18%
21%
21%
23%
55%
15%
5%
15%
6%
10%
51%
70%
40%
68%
27%
17%
4%
24%
3%
7%
Andrea Leadsom, Conservative MP and Minister of
State for Energy
Boris Johnson, Conservative MP and former London
Mayor
Angela Eagle, Labour MP and former Shadow
Secretary for Business, Innovation and Skills
Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Labour party
Theresa May, Conservative MP and Home Secretary
Agree Neither / nor Disagree Don’t know
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
23Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
Potential Prime Ministers?
21%
23%
15%
6%
40%
68%
24%
3%
Angela Eagle, Labour MP and former Shadow
Secretary for Business, Innovation and Skills
Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Labour party
Agree Neither / nor Disagree Don’t know
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
24Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
Potential Prime Ministers?
18%
21%
55%
15%
5%
10%
51%
70%
27%
17%
4%
7%
Andrea Leadsom, Conservative MP and Minister of
State for Energy
Boris Johnson, Conservative MP and former London
Mayor
Theresa May, Conservative MP and Home Secretary
Agree Neither / nor Disagree Don’t know
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
25Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
AS YOU MAY KNOW, DAVID CAMERON HAS SAID THAT HE WILL STEP DOWN AS LEADER OF THE
CONSERVATIVE PARTY BY AUTUMN THIS YEAR. WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING POLITICIANS I AM
GOING TO READ OUT, IF ANY, WOULD MAKE YOU MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY
IF THEY WERE LEADER?
Base: 1,021 British adults;292 Conservative supporters 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
Next Conservative leader
8%
22%
55%
13%
5%
2%
82%
10%
Don't know
Neither
Theresa May
Andrea Leadsom
ALL
CONSERVATIVE
SUPPORTERS
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
26Political Monitor | July 2016 | Final | Public
PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING
STATEMENT:
THE LABOUR PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase:; 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th July 2016
Labour Party leadership change?
30
50
12
16
21
6
12
10
19
15
6
3
October 2015
July 2016
STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE
NEITHER AGREE
NOR DISAGREE TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE DON’T KNOW
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
27
July 2016POLITICAL MONITOR